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  • #1,301
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:25am Aug 30, 2014 8:25am
Quoting clivepackham
Theres just one more post I want to do today about these 100lwma reversals. They are always at the high and the low of the day... What do i mean by that??? Have alook back at any 1 minute chart you like and you will see that every days high is a 100lwma reversal on the 1 minute timeframe. Interesting heh??? Maybe we could use that to find some large RR trades??? Have a look at this EURAUD chart from yesterday, notice how the 100lwma colour change after LO was the low of the day and how the 100lwma colour change after the NO was the high of the day,...
Thanks for your reply and further explanations , I really like the idea of high reward to risk , because I know I'm nowhere near good enough yet ( will I ever be , I ask myself , but hoping so ) -- to get good entries most of the time . But with a good R/R ratio it gives us a good ''fighting chance ''
It seems to me that these indis can give us a good alert or ''heads up '' to look at PA more closely , and then the indis can really help to confirm the PA and give us that bit more confidence to pull the trigger .

And I feel honoured to get such nice replies from you top-trader guys .
  • #1,302
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:18pm Aug 31, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting robuk
{quote} Thanks for your reply , I was just looking mostly at the small ABCD , I didn't know about the range , so kind of ''more luck than judgement '' , on my behalf . I guess the range is from HTF , I will look to see if I can see it for myself , if not I hope you wont mind if I refer back to you ?
You can see the range from the 1 min chart I posted. The red line is the upper level and the low of the range was around 1.4071. The move below fails, pa goes to the top of the range then gives the a b c move.
  • #1,303
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:46am Sep 1, 2014 1:46am
Nice start to the week with an early entry into GBPCAD as I see a lot of GBP strength on my 1 min TT break and retest of 1.8050 not moving to BE too quickly going to wait for next swing down and then go to BE.

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This is a pre-news sentiment trade something I've been working on another thread about news trading. Very simply it works on the theory that London traders get the heads up on the mornings GBP news release so load the GBP pairs accordingly, therefore this will be shown in the TT indy like this morning. All I do is trade the 1min trend pre-news and take profit just before news. Then 2 mins before I take another entry depending on the sentiment, usually look at 1 min and 5 min CSM and take a trade in that direction to capture spike. Lastly I look at the 1 min trend and CSM readings to take a post news trade too hoping to capture the post news reaction.

Well thats the plan as they say, lets see how it all pans out this morning.



But also as I'm trading the 15min moves and entering on the 1 min here's a 15 min chart showing a bit of space to the 1.8200 level but the news will dictate more than that this morning but always worth a quick look to see where we are on the 15 min.

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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,304
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:57am Sep 1, 2014 1:57am
I would say the pre-news sentiment is suggesting an upward spike today, looking at these top 4 trenders.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP pairs pre news sentiment.PNG Size: 80 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,305
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:04am Sep 1, 2014 2:04am
Theres a lot of ways to use our 1 min charts to follow the money in the London open. Another setup to look for on our 1 minute charts is the break and retest of the overnight range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,306
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:22am Sep 1, 2014 2:22am
Seemed to be faltering a bit so closed out half , will let other half run a bit more but trail stop below last swing lows as we go...


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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,307
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:26am Sep 1, 2014 2:26am
Not a lot to do now until just before the news release so thought I would just post my TT indy, looking like a bullish news spike can be expected at the moment but will look a bit closer to news release before pre trading the spike...

Attached Image


Time for my morning cuppa, anyone for tea?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,308
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:24am Sep 1, 2014 3:24am
Well thats the pre-news trade completed satisfactory with 32.7 pips in total, now its all about the pre spike trade which I reckon is looking to be a bullish spike so will look to buy on 9.28 minute candle as sentiment bullish.

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But as daily trend is down then if its a bullish spike might go for a spike fade trade. If not will wait to see how the differential works out and then look at my 1 min CSM for the strongest /weakest and try to catch a 1 min trend on a GBP pair post news result. Sometimes a high differential news release can setup the trend for the whole day.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,309
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:35am Sep 1, 2014 3:35am
That didn't go according to plan so handed back 23.9 pips there so still up by 10 pips and now its the post news trade so will wait to see what develops on 1 min, let it sort itself out for next 20... 30 mins then see whats going on???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,310
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:48am Sep 1, 2014 3:48am
Just a quick thought on the pre spike trade that lost, the interesting thing is I've been testing this over last month and I've found that when the sentiment doesn't work out with the spike direction then its only a smallish loser compared to the larger winners when you get it right so although I lost that one this morning it still leads to bigger winners than losers which of course gives me a positive edge, which of course is all you can ask for in trading.

The good thing about my 3 news trades is like this morning I get 3 bites of the cherry to get it right and I'm up at the moment 10 pips so I've got some slack even if my post news trade doesn't workout as long as I don't lose more than 10 pips its a break even strategy, but if it does then who knows??

With my post news trade I need to see some movement one way or the other before trading so will sit back for a while and see what moves.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,311
  • Sep 1, 2014 5:26am Sep 1, 2014 5:26am
Hmmm nothing setting up post news trade wise so a 10 pip profit from the news this morning but all looking a bit too quiet now and USA public holiday today so not expecting too many strong moves for the rest of the day, so best to call it a day at 10 pips I guess.

Looking at my TT indy we have JPY pairs very weak , someone once told me when the markets are light BOJ will try to push JPY about to improve its exports, maybe they've chosen today as USA on holiday???

Attached Image


Who knows but the sure thing is nothing is moving right now very quiet market. When you're chasing the money on the 1 min charts that doesn't help, its best to "stay away until the banks come out to play"

With that thought in mind I'll take the rest of the day off......
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,312
  • Sep 1, 2014 6:20am Sep 1, 2014 6:20am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} You can see the range from the 1 min chart I posted. The red line is the upper level and the low of the range was around 1.4071. The move below fails, pa goes to the top of the range then gives the a b c move.
Thanks , I 've got it now .
  • #1,313
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:32am Sep 2, 2014 1:32am
Well another London open to negotiate and its all looking rather interesting with my 4 top trenders all having nice overnight moves in the Asian session and all at the top of their daily ranges so reversals would be the trade to watch out for today.

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I always look at the overnight movers as they are fully loaded with buyers hopefully looking to bank their profits asap and London boys seeing it as liquidity for their sell orders, our Asian friends bank their profits and the Londoners get their precious liquidity that they so desperately need for their massive orders. Everyones happy.

Of course now I've said that watch them all continue to soar this morning making me look silly.

mind you if they do , what goes up has gotta come down sometime, thats the law, and when it does I'll be waiting....

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heres how they look right now fully loaded and just pushing up a bit more ready for their fall???? Lets hope so..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,314
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:44am Sep 2, 2014 1:44am
All starting to look a bit toppy would like to see a clear LL followed by a nice LH then in we go.....

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Trouble is which one?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,315
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:52am Sep 2, 2014 1:52am
Should of said in my first post that I meant the 5 minute top trenders were all at top of their ranges, thats how I tend to use my 5 min TT's looking for them to reverse sometime as they've moved quite a way already.

As for choicing the right pair to trade, well as I'm looking to hold whatever turns on the 100lwma I don't want any news spike knocking me out so as GBP news at 09.30 will look for a eur pair, also of course on daily csm EUR is the weakest currency...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,316
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:48am Sep 2, 2014 2:48am
Hmmm very interesting once I decided on a eur pair off went the gbp pairs, always the way isn't it?? Mind you that was the pre gbp news trade today for sure as gbp weakness right across the board. But I'm pleased to say I stuck to my guns this morning and went for my eur reversal on EURAUD. Caught it and up 10 pips but more importantly a nice stop placement at BE well protected by 1.4125 level and 100lwma.

Now this was not my standard type of abcd entry but I've been working on entering on DT's when I expect a reversal, yes, to get in early, but more importantly to get my 10 pip stop above the last high with every chance of getting my entry to BE quickly as in this case. All risk off the table very early now just gonna hold this on my 100lwma colour change.

Might even add on next LH probable break and retest of the 25 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I'm going to hold this as back with the daily strongest/weakest direction on my 100lwma even toying with the idea of moving this trade up to the 15 min lwma for exit, but lets see how it goes from here.

By the way a gbp pre newas trade would of worked today too so far but too late for me now so will just take the pre spike setup if it happens and a post trade if all goes well.

Job done and everythings nice and safe at BE so time for my morning cuppa I think....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,317
  • Sep 3, 2014 1:56am Sep 3, 2014 1:56am
Well had a terrific day yesterday with 4 winners and a BE trade and no losers, resulting in a 140% gain so things are looking up and I think I'm getting very close to a successful strategy with a definite edge. But I know better than most that one day doesn't make a system so lets see how today goes?

Looking at my TT Indy we have some prime reversal suspects again top of my 5 min TT's GBPJPY,GBPAUD, EURJPY and USDJPY so will keep a close eye on them durring the open looking for a 100lwma colour change then a nice CCI pullback, my ABCD entry , hold it until 100lwma turns again. Well thats the plan...

Attached Image


Other than that I'm too late for my pre-news trade on a GBP pair but if I had of been up earlier might of caught this little move GBPAUD note the 100 lwma colour change and then the CCI signals speak for themselves. I'm going to get myself out of bed a bit earlier on these GBP news days as I see these 1 minute pre news trades setup all the time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ok so just gonna wait for a 100lwma colour change and see what develops???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,318
  • Sep 3, 2014 2:39am Sep 3, 2014 2:39am
Just want to quickly say what I'm doing differently now to when I first started this thread. I'm now only ever interested in reversal trades on the 1 min chart which is basically a 15 min CCI turn so I am trading 15min momentum runs entering on the 1 min chart. However I soon realised that evry 15 min CCI turn was equivalent to a 100 lwma turn on my 1 min charts so now thats my first filter, a colour change (slope change) on my 100 lwma.

Ok so for clarity heres what I look for:

 

  1. First filter only market open times when we can expect the money to come to the table.
  2. 100lwma colour change, change of direction.
  3. Then I look to take 2 entries max on my 1 min chart, firstly a break and retest of the 100lwma and secondly the first CCI signal after the colour change.
  4. My entry is my CCI going overbought/oversold over the +100/-100 levels
  5. Hold until 100lwma changes colour again and close out both trades.

​

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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​
The idea is very simple small losers with 1 min stops but large winners holding for the 15 min momentum run.

I use it in several different ways like this morning it can be used for pre news trades on GBP news releases watching my 1 min TT indy for gbp moves. It can be used post news trades then I look at my 1 min CSM for strongest/weakest just after the news and trade that.

It can also be used for market reversals where the pre session moves are regularly reversed durring the London Open and the same for London moves in the New York open. Just look at the top pairs in the 5 min TT indy after the Asian session, then look their pairs 100lwma to change colour, you can typically expect a 70% retrace of the earlier sessions move. The bigger the pre session move the better....

After I take my setup I will check the 15 min chart to see where I am on that chart and if the 15min 100lwma has just changed colour than may look to hold my entries on the 15 min 100lwma.

The whole idea is to get tight entries on the 1 min chart and large RR running the 15min momentum.

My whole goal here has been to find a system that gives us large winners and small losers the key to a successful trader.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,319
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:25am Sep 3, 2014 3:25am
Quoting clivepackham
Just want to quickly say what I'm doing differently now to when I first started this thread. I'm now only ever interested in reversal trades on the 1 min chart which is basically a 15 min CCI turn so I am trading 15min momentum runs entering on the 1 min chart. However I soon realised that evry 15 min CCI turn was equivalent to a 100 lwma turn on my 1 min charts so now thats my first filter, a colour change (slope change) on my 100 lwma. Ok so for clarity heres what I look for: First filter only market open times when we can expect the money to...
Cheers Clive. Still around and lurking.

I think you need to do a make over of the first post with your current views.

I'm using the cci 70 also on my 1min charts for the quicker turns with the 35 ema high/low. I'll have a look at the coloured 100 lwma as they basically show the same thing.

The only other thing that I can think of is that I'm trying to see clean abc's, break of a range and test always good and pairs agreeing. Could be ej, gj going in same direction, or all gbp or eur pairs.
  • #1,320
  • Sep 3, 2014 4:22am Sep 3, 2014 4:22am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Cheers Clive. Still around and lurking. I think you need to do a make over of the first post with your current views. I'm using the cci 70 also on my 1min charts for the quicker turns with the 35 ema high/low. I'll have a look at the coloured 100 lwma as they basically show the same thing. The only other thing that I can think of is that I'm trying to see clean abc's, break of a range and test always good and pairs agreeing. Could be ej, gj going in same direction, or all gbp or eur pairs.
Good morning Mr V. good to see you're still around.

I'm really pleased with my progress and yes you're right I need to adjust the first page and maybe put a new post here to clarify where I am with the strategy but its looking very positive right now. I think trading 1 min charts is fine as long as you stick to strong trends with very clear market structure.

I would also add best to buy oversold cci signals and sell overbought ones as this means we are buying the bottom of a wave in an uptrend or selling the top of a wave in a downtrend. The CCI indy is so good at identifying the tops and bottoms of the waves. The strategy can be summed up very simply.

Only trade just after a 100lwma colour change, take first 2 CCI signals only.

Only buy when 100lwma green and price above it. Only sell when 100lwma red and price below it .

Only buy oversold cci signals (bottom of wave).

Only sell overbought cci signals (top of wave)

Close out on next 100lwma colour change.

Thats it simple as that!!!

Will do a detailed explanation and edit first post too...

Cheers Mr V.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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