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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #132,021
  • Aug 30, 2014 1:08pm Aug 30, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting aserbfx
{quote} do not force yourself into the market. you don't need to trade every day and you don't need to have open orders all the time. let the setups come to you....
TRUE TRUE TRUE...
My experience say that it is not difficult to spot a perfect trade opportunity but it is VERY difficult to ignore all other situations... ..just my 2 cents.

Nice weekend to all!
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #132,022
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:29pm Aug 30, 2014 6:29pm
Hi All,
lot of traffic here ! have sense ?
cheers
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  • #132,023
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:38pm Aug 30, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting Pumlitch
{quote} TRUE TRUE TRUE... My experience say that it is not difficult to spot a perfect trade opportunity but it is VERY difficult to ignore all other situations... ..just my 2 cents. Nice weekend to all!
Thanks Pumlitch for your comment, I'm interest in making tiral to test and possibly learn from mistakes and also trading
without spotting the best trade is a mistake.
Today I did a nice exercise looking at weekly chart and starting from Jan 2011 try to observe bar chart and predict what could happen
without see the chart........... very interest and useful to have an idea about trading system expectancy (manually calculated)
only on pin bar (around 1,5R). Is that realistic ? anyone have already same hist figures to provide the expectancy
of the PIN bar trading ?
cheers
  • #132,024
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:41pm Aug 30, 2014 6:41pm
Hi All,
is that BEOB relevant ?
cheers
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  • #132,025
  • Aug 31, 2014 1:29am Aug 31, 2014 1:29am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} still a couple hours to close but I want to post this update specifically for Xam and the new folks before I head off for a few days This is about as classic and simple as a trade gets in terms of james16 material BUT it also contains many key concepts. Just because i've been doing this 13 years doesn't mean I don't keep things basic and simple. The thing that separates winners from losers is the ability to be picky. Xam I want you to keep in mind this example as you re-evaluate your trades before I get to them. I'm using a BIG clear bar...
thanks for your simple and logical chart with trade explanation, Mike!!! your explanations are priceless!!!
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #132,026
  • Aug 31, 2014 1:47am Aug 31, 2014 1:47am
hi guys,

Anyone considering going short on NZDUSD after the PB from last Thu?

My reasons for taking the trade are: strong downtrend, downward TL confirmed by 3 touch points, PB rejected from Resistance and RN 0.8400, space for at least 60 p down to next RN 0.83 which can yield a minimum 1:1 profit ratio + friday's bar confirm the rejection at that level. Also there was this small gap down in the beginning of last week at 0.8370ish that can provide some resistance too (as you can see, no candle last week managed to close above this gap).

Am I making any sense?
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Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #132,027
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:34am Aug 31, 2014 2:34am
Quoting Xamarass
Hi All, is that BEOB relevant ? cheers {image}
Hi Mate!

I'll try to answer your question in a boarder perspective.
What is a BEOB?
"A candle that has taken out the former candle's high, and then goes dow and closes there."

What does actually happen?
- When price takes out the former high it actually takes some stop loss orders as well. (Marked red on my chart) (Since traders just love to place their stops above / below daily High/Low.
Big players tend to use this liquidity to alter their position.

- Then price heads down and takes the stops down as well. But what happens if the candle's close gets back? Well it simply means that pro players rather reversed their position again than letting price rally further down...

So it tells me that bigger players rather reversed than pushed at the top and did the same at the bottom... Do we have a bearish direction then? For me the answer is no.

If price stays down and closes there that would mean that the big players (at least for now) accepted and agreed on that low price as "fair price".
So If price closed down then the 1.08730 - 1.0875 could have been a great sell area.

Hope this helps.
Stephen
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It's all psychology...
  • #132,028
  • Aug 31, 2014 3:29am Aug 31, 2014 3:29am
Hi all

CADJPY... Pin Bar at confluence?
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  • #132,029
  • Edited 6:51am Aug 31, 2014 3:42am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting FXBat
hi guys, Anyone considering going short on NZDUSD after the PB from last Thu? My reasons for taking the trade are: strong downtrend, downward TL confirmed by 3 touch points, PB rejected from Resistance and RN 0.8400, space for at least 60 p down to next RN 0.83 which can yield a minimum 1:1 profit ratio + friday's bar confirm the rejection at that level. Also there was this small gap down in the beginning of last week at 0.8370ish that can provide some resistance too (as you can see, no candle last week managed to close above this gap). Am I making...
Hey FXBat,
I'm currently short on this pair, entered on friday at 50% retracement of previous bar, currently at +30 pips. My reasoning was similar to yours, I'm hoping for about 1:2 RR.
I'm not that great at trading yet, though, so I hope Mike or someone else can confirm it's a good call.
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  • #132,030
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:35am Aug 31, 2014 10:35am
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} ---------TRADE 1----------------------XAMARASS-----------------BAD SEQUENZE------------------------------------------- On Sunday August 10 I traded my first PIN bar, I was on vacation in Puglia (Italy south) and reading in ForexFacotry about taining on Trading I red a topic about the best training we have available and in addition to Tharp training I have seen same good comments about James16 , so going trought the James16 chart I started my journay reading and reading in that forum and I started experiments same trades combining the knowledge...
Hey X

I'll start getting through each of these today for you as promised

This one you actually played right in terms of where is price going? That is where is our FTA.

BUT the key role as we began speaking about is what is the story of our bar. Bars that have no story are just historical representation of prices. And we don't want to let a bar alone dictate the reason we jump in.

Now one thing that I can tell is that you snapshotted the pinbar very big and by itself. This is VERY common for the new technical trader. The idea is you found a pinbar, and you did and that's great. But your looking at the pinbar as what will make you money as opposed to the situation. Zoom your thought process out and you will begin to see their are many pieces to each chart that we need to consider.
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  • #132,031
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:39am Aug 31, 2014 10:39am
Quoting Xbd14
Hi all CADJPY... Pin Bar at confluence? {image}
HI X, im a rookie here, so dont take my comments as 100% valid

i would NOT consider taking short on CADJPY for 3 reasons:
1. Location - i consider level 97.50 as much more relevant for a possible short position than current location
2. Direction - look at the strength of the up move - it took 31 days to drop from 96 to 93 level and only 16 (half time !!) to get back to 96.
3. Bar size and shape - not really a PB. it can be that some traders took profits off the table on friday (normal day for profit taking) thats why it formed that wick up.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #132,032
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:46am Aug 31, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} ------------------TRADE 2-------------------XAMARASS-------------------------BAD SEQUENCE------------------------------------------ regarding my second trade, I was still on vacation, going throught pages and pages of James16 chart forum, was clear the PIN bar only have sense if traded in the context, so first I had to see charts with weekly or monthly view serching for S/R , channels.... and then switch to daily view and looking for support and resistence to find PIN bars; but one thing is theory and another thing is the reality and looking...
Now this is a good one in terms of what I am asking from you. A nice size bar at a swing high with space. This is exactly what I want to see you focusing on and then adding in two things. Location(do we have confluence or just a bar?) and trade mgmt.

Now a few things I said to members when they posted this one i'll reiterate here for you. At worst in my view you should take a VERY small loss on a bar like this.

I would not be in this bar because that next bar did not break the low of the pinbar. When you have a huge uptrend, and you get JUST a pinbar(notice when I say just a pinbar we have NO other confluence to support a reversal). This to me is what I consider a PURE momentum play. That is sellers come in and they should sustain that selling by pushing under the pinbar to trigger it(remember a pinbar is not validated until it triggers). NOW with that said their are people who would still leave their sell and even on a bar like this I think that is fine. It IS a big pinbar.

Now onto the stuff that you'll learn with time. Price did EXACTLY what we would expect. That is it got to it's FTA and an area of importance(see chart). Where you stuck your take profit to me is irrelevant. Why should we stick our take profit down there? Is that just we HOPE price will get there? What about the areas leading up to that. Their is nothing wrong with having targets in mind but they should be logical and also play off how you manage the trade. It doesn't have to be one or the other. Meaning we don't just have to set a take profit, set a stop loss and wait for one to be hit. We need to use information that comes in to both keep our trades going(to our intended targets) or to jump out of a trade for smaller losses when we can. THIS IS THE KEY TO TRADING.

I highly recommend for now to forget about what you have read and heard about R:R. It's a highly misunderstood and misused topic in trading that can lead traders onto a wrong path without understanding what they are doing with the trading part. IE taking a trade and setting a take profit because it gives a good R:R instead of understanding the dynamics of the trade itself.

This is a lot of stuff to digest and please don't be discouraged if some of this doesn't make sense or seems confusing. The reason i'm going into this much detail is also for you to understand how much experience and time is needed to fully understand the decisions needed to be successful in the long run.

If you are looking for my viewpoint on R:R as a supplement here it is
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post6066612

Best
Mike
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  • #132,033
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:56am Aug 31, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} -------------------TRADE 3----------------------XAMARASS-----------------------BAD SEQUENCE----------------------------------------- I remember very well the trade number 3, I was sitting in my terrace in Puglia, looking at the sightseen, sea, the beach, the pinewood on the left and the holiday residence on the right, was August 13 and reading in the forum I found a good idea for a new trade on GBPJPY - long. Probably this one was not a PIN bar (even if there was a nice triangle under forming) The trade has been closed with 15 euro loss...
yes this seems very much like just trying to get into the market.

Notice that trendline is not a relevant trendline. You took a major swing low(which is good) and connected it to your low of your bar setup. That's a random point in the market. TLs are established by at least 3 touches, or two major swings where you then watch towards the 3rd swing point. This would be trying to curve fit reasons in.

Now I believe you were trying to create a 3 day pinbar. Which is valid. But we must view the chart as a 3day chart if we do that. Notice if we did this we are still left with a pinbar at a swing low(good) with some space(good). But we aren't left with much of a "story" So again if you don't have much confluence these FTAs become EVERYTHING. Trade mgmt becomes everything, but these types of situations are often over traded and then mistraded by new traders. Remember GREAT bars, at GREAT locatrions. This is the key to success. PERIOD.

I've gone ahead and re-aggregated this chart to a 3day chart. This re-aggregates your setup plus all other bars. From there we can view the relevant historical PA in relationship to what future price is looking to possibly do.
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  • #132,034
  • Aug 31, 2014 10:57am Aug 31, 2014 10:57am
Quoting aserbfx
@ xamarass these trades show that (as i already wrote) you take pinbars in the middle of nowhere. no former s/r, no swing high/low, no round number, no fib, no nothing...
Thanks Aser for jumping in and yes this is exactly what we need Xamarass to begin to understand and his charts will open up for him

We all were there though Xamarass, none of us are born knowing this it's information you acquire and learn to use better

I'll continue to go through your charts throughout the day X

In case anyone heads over to the site we'll be down till tomorrow as we perform upgrades as we get closer to the launch of our new website


Mike
  • #132,035
  • Aug 31, 2014 1:11pm Aug 31, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} Thanks Pumlitch for your comment, I'm interest in making tiral to test and possibly learn from mistakes and also trading without spotting the best trade is a mistake. Today I did a nice exercise looking at weekly chart and starting from Jan 2011 try to observe bar chart and predict what could happen without see the chart........... very interest and useful to have an idea about trading system expectancy (manually calculated) only on pin bar (around 1,5R). Is that realistic ? anyone have already same hist figures to provide the expectancy...
Expectancy can kill your account very quickly. I remember times when I "knew" that market gives me one good setup weekly (theoretically)...BUT when it did not happen I tried to find the setup where it wasn't....so I was loosing.
The R:R ratio of a trade differs one from another. It always deppends on the current situation.

Just use your own brain a it will come :-)
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #132,036
  • Aug 31, 2014 1:35pm Aug 31, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey X I'll start getting through each of these today for you as promised This one you actually played right in terms of where is price going? That is where is our FTA. BUT the key role as we began speaking about is what is the story of our bar. Bars that have no story are just historical representation of prices. And we don't want to let a bar alone dictate the reason we jump in. Now one thing that I can tell is that you snapshotted the pinbar very big and by itself. This is VERY common for the new technical trader. The idea is you found...
Thanks for your comment on my first chart;
- yes for that trade the result was good
- I undestood your comment; first see charts on weekly time frame (big picture) without looking for bars,
looking for SR, trend, channels, swing up and down etc.... (fibonacci retr maybe close to same resistance or support etc...9
- looking in particular on swing up or down try to identify pin bar or other bar
- try to identify area without traffic (more easy to trade there)
- don't force a trade (only if goog reason ) - too start only easy bar weekly better 8or daily)
- question: what does it means "FTA" ? and "PPZ" ? ("pivot prize zone" ?)

Thanks a lot
for your imput
Xam
  • #132,037
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:56pm Aug 31, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Now this is a good one in terms of what I am asking from you. A nice size bar at a swing high with space. This is exactly what I want to see you focusing on and then adding in two things. Location(do we have confluence or just a bar?) and trade mgmt. Now a few things I said to members when they posted this one i'll reiterate here for you. At worst in my view you should take a VERY small loss on a bar like this. I would not be in this bar because that next bar did not break the low of the pinbar. When you have a huge uptrend, and you get...
Hi Mike, thank for your second analysis,
regarding the RR I learn from V.Tharp same basic principle that I have clear in mind but are not influencing a lot my trades, I have first to leanr hoe to trade PB, or better I have to learn how to undestand the big picture, then start first reconize the PIN bars , then start learning how to trade PB and then to trade with set up to maximize RR..... I know is a very long path........
- what you mean exactly "remember a pinbar is not validated until it triggers"

I will go throught the video in that week
cheers
  • #132,038
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:16am Sep 1, 2014 1:16am
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} Hi Mike, thank for your second analysis, regarding the RR I learn from V.Tharp same basic principle that I have clear in mind but are not influencing a lot my trades, I have first to leanr hoe to trade PB, or better I have to learn how to undestand the big picture, then start first reconize the PIN bars , then start learning how to trade PB and then to trade with set up to maximize RR..... I know is a very long path........ - what you mean exactly "remember a pinbar is not validated until it triggers" I will go throught the video in that...
We usually play pins on a break. That means we make a 10-20 pips bufer beetween the low of the PB, and our pending order. So if our pending order doesnt trigger that means that PB is not valid. In other words if the next bar doesnt break the low of the pinbar its not a valid pinbar.
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #132,039
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:27am Sep 1, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Xamarass
{quote} Thanks.........: what does it means "FTA" ? and "PPZ" ? ("pivot prize zone" ?) Thanks a lot for your imput Xam
Xamarass
FTA: is the first area of support or resistance you meet when your trade triggers.
ppz: is the zone of price where price flips from support to resistance over the period of time on your chart.

Quoting Xamarass
{quote} .....what you mean exactly "remember a pinbar is not validated until it triggers" I
It means a pinbar is not confirmed as a good pinbar until price breaks the head of the bar and its buffer.
  • #132,040
  • Sep 1, 2014 5:44am Sep 1, 2014 5:44am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Thanks Aser for jumping in and yes this is exactly what we need Xamarass to begin to understand and his charts will open up for him We all were there though Xamarass, none of us are born knowing this it's information you acquire and learn to use better I'll continue to go through your charts throughout the day X In case anyone heads over to the site we'll be down till tomorrow as we perform upgrades as we get closer to the launch of our new website Mike
Mike,

What's this website about? Is it a commercial web & when it's launch you're gonna leave us here?

Yours
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