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The similarity system

  • #7,121
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:11am Aug 27, 2014 9:11am
Quoting burnssss
Eurusdd, I'm glad to see you here. I've been thinking lately probabilities. And if we have the right thought, whatever the time we get to trade, we can make a profit. I hope not wrong. Your suppose an example of a rare event. We call "H" to hight and "L" for low. So if we have a set in H4, "{HHHHH}", we assume a rare event. I was reading discrete time and discrete processes. The drawback I find is that indicate independence of the variables. I think it is wrong, but something else these processes differ. In a discrete process we have the variable...
Hi burnssss. probability is a funny concept to explain most times because in theory, it can tell you a lot of scary things but in practice you can get around some of those scary things.


For example, the probability everyone will die is 1!!!!! Sure event. that does not mean you should NOT wake up tomorrow when you hear the bell. All you have to do is assume that tomorrow is not your day!!!


So, it really does not matter if the coin toss is independent or not!!! If I toss a fair coin 100 times, I am not expected to see 99 consecutive tails. Therefore, from the very start, if I have enough money, I can chase head 100 times and "EXPECT" a win!!! It does not mean that 100 tails is impossible; it is not expected!!!!

That is the power of expectation!!!
  • #7,122
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:13am Aug 27, 2014 9:13am
Quoting josh11
{quote} mine is this: should continue after going back up to 1.3176! {image}
Yeah, okay. It's close enuf! LOL

I think I'm on your page now. Just had a look a very recent history and the method holds so far.
The questions I have now are the variations. I'm looking at rare event x which could be classified as a NEAR daily occurrence. But then there are other rare events.... that could almost NOT be rare events..... so the ultimate question is: ?

Awesome mate!
It's taken a week, a weekend and some interesting deviations to get to where you're at - and I wouldn't change it for the world! Mwahahahaha
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,123
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:15am Aug 27, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} So, it really does not matter of the coin toss is independent or not!!! If I toss a fair coin 100 times, I am not expected to see 99 consecutive tails. Therefore, from the very start, if I have enough money, I can chase head 100 times and "EXPECT" a win!!!
(For A Lighthearted Break)
I didn't have these kind of odds when I was a younger lad.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,124
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:21am Aug 27, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Hi burnssss. probability is a funny concept to explain most times because in theory, it can tell you a lot of scary things but in practice you can get around some of those scary things. For example, the probability everyone will die is 1!!!!! Sure event. that does not mean you should NOT wake up tomorrow when you hear the bell. All you have to do is assume that tomorrow is not your day!!! So, it really does not matter if the coin toss is independent or not!!! If I toss a fair coin 100 times, I am not expected to see 99 consecutive tails....
I have only 28, I'm too young to assume that someday die hehe.
The probability is really fun. I can take 12 bull bars in m5, that does not mean that the next 12 bars are bullish. Rare is the key event.
  • #7,125
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:23am Aug 27, 2014 9:23am
EU taking out stops on both side of the range!!
  • #7,126
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:24am Aug 27, 2014 9:24am
Tension is really building up
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #7,127
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:24am Aug 27, 2014 9:24am
1.32185 significant resistance and where i plan to sell once more.
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #7,128
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:26am Aug 27, 2014 9:26am
21:17 "His will be done and Gaps will be closed"
  • #7,129
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:30am Aug 27, 2014 9:30am
Now eurusd will close the next 330mins above 1.31660!!!! so 24 pips room to play in!
  • #7,130
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:31am Aug 27, 2014 9:31am
Shiva 22:17 Tell us when, they asked and He replied, 'On ther same week'
  • #7,131
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:39am Aug 27, 2014 9:39am
Quoting josh11
EU taking out stops on both side of the range!!
Josh, do you think it will return to 1.3188 before continuing?
You reap what you sow.
  • #7,132
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:45am Aug 27, 2014 9:45am
The spike is dues to some rumors which sayy Deutsche Bank leaked that the ECB will not announce outright QE any time soon.
  • #7,133
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:47am Aug 27, 2014 9:47am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Josh, do you think it will return to 1.3188 before continuing?
I am not in any trade at the moment and have no signal or targets!
  • #7,134
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:48am Aug 27, 2014 9:48am
Rare event-we can see 7 consecutive down bars in weekly chart only one time from 1994 . now we have 6 in a row. i want to post earlier today didn't got time

so i am expecting weekly up close that is above 1.31973 little down is buy for me .I think master is here thank you for everything euruusdd
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unlearning is difficult than learning-that is the key!!
  • #7,135
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:53am Aug 27, 2014 9:53am
Quoting josh11
{quote} I am not in any trade at the moment and have no signal or targets!
Thanks. Me neither! Though it looks like 1.3196 could be a safer bet. Two TZ bars in a row on M15? Surely a rare event.
You reap what you sow.
  • #7,136
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:54am Aug 27, 2014 9:54am
Quoting sram
Rare event-we can see 7 consecutive down bars in weekly chart only one time from 1994 . now we have 6 in a row. i want to post earlier today didn't got time so i am expecting weekly up close that is above 1.31973 little down is buy for me .I think master is here thank you for everything euruusdd {image}
In this case you can take depending on variables.
7 bearish bars for 20 years. 6 bears bars in 2014.
Whereupon, the odds are that one of the following 2 bars will be bullish.
  • #7,137
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:56am Aug 27, 2014 9:56am
Now turn.
If in 20 years, you have most 7 bearish bars, do you assume for the next 20 years?
  • #7,138
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:04am Aug 27, 2014 10:04am
Quoting samaralala
For the life of me I am not going Long until I see 1.29xxx. I have been burned not once not twice but 3 times already going long in a STRONG DOWNTREND. No point guessing BOTTOM. When I see it i will believe it.
...finally...
  • #7,139
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:16am Aug 27, 2014 10:16am
Hello to everyone this is my first post
just want to say that i had a dissimilarity on 1h chart 1.3208 and price just just touched it and went back down
just wanna say thanks to all who support this thred
P.S i spotted the dissim. on the old indis from first post.s bollinger and 1.ema dissim
  • #7,140
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:24am Aug 27, 2014 10:24am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Josh, do you think it will return to 1.3188 before continuing?
Yep, should have shorted...
You reap what you sow.
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