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The similarity system

  • #7,001
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:03am Aug 26, 2014 6:03am
Just a question to you all here!

At what point do you deicide that what you are doing here is right?? (Profitable)

backtesting/forward testing and live testing??

Interested to see your answers

Thanks
  • #7,002
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:10am Aug 26, 2014 6:10am
Quoting josh11
Just a question to you all here! At what point do you deicide that what you are doing here is right?? (Profitable) backtesting/forward testing and live testing?? Interested to see your answers Thanks
I backtest for 1 month or 2 but I am careful that I don't start to curve-fit.
If anything, I have evolved into forward testing for 1-3 months and evaluate the performance on that basis.

Curve-fitting is the biggest danger....

EDIT:
The recent TZ/RZ discussion has caused a wrinkle in my strategy so I am currently forward testing some modifications.
I do find it difficult because some rules can and do conflict with my established strategy rules. Can be a real nut cracker LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,003
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:21am Aug 26, 2014 6:21am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I backtest for 1 month or 2 but I am careful that I don't start to curve-fit. If anything, I have evolved into forward testing for 1-3 months and evaluate the performance on that basis. Curve-fitting is the biggest danger.... EDIT: The recent TZ/RZ discussion has caused a wrinkle in my strategy so I am currently forward testing some modifications. I do find it difficult because some rules can and do conflict with my established strategy rules. Can be a real nut cracker LOL
Thank you mate, does your other strategy work for you? If so leave it as is, if not then I suggest opening a second live account and trade both your old and new then you can improve then individually!

Because the problem may come where your having mix results and not know which strategy is working!
  • #7,004
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:26am Aug 26, 2014 6:26am
Quoting josh11
{quote} Thank you mate, does your other strategy work for you? If so leave it as is, if not then I suggest opening a second live account and trade both your old and new then you can improve then individually! Because the problem may come where your having mix results and not know which strategy is working!
The hardest part is time management mate, especially with day job and life job. My main strategy (live) does work for me and I don't want to mess with it too much.

But that 2nd account strategy is something well worth looking into. I've just created a "strategy" over the last week and weekend on the TZ thing and it does look like the results need to be sandboxed. Sadly, I think I may have to day trade it which is not what the strategy is all about (1H to 5M). Sigh, if only I could programme.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,005
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:35am Aug 26, 2014 6:35am
Live testing. Nothing can substitute that.
  • #7,006
  • Aug 26, 2014 8:07am Aug 26, 2014 8:07am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The overall thread is principle-driven not indicator driven, although the discussions tend to branch into 3 main indicator type chats: CI, Bollinger, Stochastic..[...].Therefore, the idea of an indicator reading a future candle is erroneous at this level.... you can't really do it by indicator.... instead, you can do it by data. [..].
Please don't take it the wrong way, but in my opinion you are a little biased in your view.
I propose to make a step back and think what the ultimate goal of trading is - in my case is simply to make profit out of trading, doesn't matter the method.

To be able to predict exactly to what level will go ahead of time is one way of doing it. But for example you can also do it by going with the flow, i.e. with the momentum, and I have enough live experience to say that for this purpose indicators do work.
Moreover you can even predict turning points, if looking in a dinamic manner, by using bollinger bands - scalpeur is a great example in this respect. For this I also can say that indicators do work.
Furthermore some traders have great success with fibonnaci levels - allthough is not my case - or ichimoku etc. Others are using Volume spread analysis to have a glimpse on what the Big money are doing, which uses the Volume - which is also an indicator in some way.

So with no intention of being rude or anything, I would just like everyone to keep an open mind that there is more than one way in attaining the final goal - being it by data, by indicator or in other ways.
  • #7,007
  • Aug 26, 2014 8:38am Aug 26, 2014 8:38am
Quoting dragos_
{quote} Please don't take it the wrong way, but in my opinion you are a little biased in your view. I propose to make a step back and think what the ultimate goal of trading is - in my case is simply to make profit out of trading, doesn't matter the method. To be able to predict exactly to what level will go ahead of time is one way of doing it. But for example you can also do it by going with the flow, i.e. with the momentum, and I have enough live experience to say that for this purpose indicators do work. Moreover you can even predict...
No problem. I believe we are in agreement and so I think you misunderstood what I was saying.

Firstly the context is this thread. This thread only. Eurusdd's similarity PRINCIPLE has no dedicated indicators. If you learn and understand that you will be able to apply the principle with any indicator and therefore add it to any strategy. So therefore, we are not disagreeing there.

Secondly, I am not saying DON'T USE INDICATORS, because my own strategy uses 2. What I am saying is that if you are new to the thread and then think that because an indicator has been posted here by a programmer, that this indicator now has all the parameters you need to apply the Similarity principle and you don't have to worry about it anymore. That is the danger. Some readers will be able to understand and tailor an indicator.... some will not. It's up to the person to discover this for themselves.

Thirdly, if you are able to predict price turns with your indicators.... then guess what: You and Only You can predict price turns with your indicators. This does not mean Mr Y or Mrs Z can do the same thing with your setup. People are different and perspectives are different. It is possible for clusters of people to replicate but ultimately, everyone is individual in there ability to make this work for themselves.

Therefore.... we return to #1. Endeavour to understand the principles of Similarity and the recent Transient/Recurrent. One says that anything can model price and deviations offer an arbitrage opportunity, the other says to bet against a rare event recurring. Implementation is up to you!

Good post, thank you for it!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,008
  • Aug 26, 2014 8:40am Aug 26, 2014 8:40am
Quoting josh11
{quote} Thank you mate, does your other strategy work for you? If so leave it as is, if not then I suggest opening a second live account and trade both your old and new then you can improve then individually! Because the problem may come where your having mix results and not know which strategy is working!
Hey Josh,

Was just thinking whether your recent breakthrough was done in the way you just described.... 2 accounts to separate the different strategies? And since then, have you amalgamated them into one? Cheer dude!

Vlad
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,009
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:01am Aug 26, 2014 9:01am
At the moment EU is really struggling to close and hold above 00
  • #7,010
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:08am Aug 26, 2014 9:08am
Quoting handy148
At the moment EU is really struggling to close and hold above 00
Yes. I'd be watching the 4H and 1H. The 4H close at 4pm will probably be at 3198. That means any pippage collection will be a breakout tactic at 1H or minute levels using the 4H range as the base.

Can't see anything beyond this range until the news days come into play. The fact that the "gap" has not been closed suggests quite strongly that it will be a lower move. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see that gap closed in a 1M or 5M spike by some stupid-ass order as also happened on Draghi's and Yellen's speech day. So I'd be careful of longs trades this week where you think you'll be able to click that mouse in the time it takes to say "TRANSIENT!".

Edit:
4H High = 3205 Low = 3186, range = 19 pips! LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,011
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:18am Aug 26, 2014 9:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} No problem. I believe we are in agreement and so I think you misunderstood what I was saying.[...] Good post, thank you for it!
I believe we are as well. Thank you too!
  • #7,012
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:21am Aug 26, 2014 9:21am
vlady - yes range and volatility have gone AWOL from EU.

Why do I trade DAX more - here's a clue

today's range on EU - 35

todays range on DAX - 129
  • #7,013
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:22am Aug 26, 2014 9:22am
Quoting sram
{quote} Hi dowachen Don't trade against the trend --that is the key!.see the picture i marked the right one.Green pips to you {image}
Thanks sram, you are right in this case. I just meant something else ... this TZ/RZ is really interesting, but not so easy as i think...
I need to read and think again ... and again ....
  • #7,014
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:24am Aug 26, 2014 9:24am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes. I'd be watching the 4H and 1H. The 4H close at 4pm will probably be at 3198. That means any pippage collection will be a breakout tactic at 1H or minute levels using the 4H range as the base. Can't see anything beyond this range until the news days come into play. The fact that the "gap" has not been closed suggests quite strongly that it will be a lower move. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see that gap closed in a 1M or 5M spike by some stupid-ass order as also happened on Draghi's and Yellen's speech day. So I'd be careful of longs...
Recurrent in H4 ... nice. I think there is a plan behind this, a big move soon ?
  • #7,015
  • Aug 26, 2014 9:37am Aug 26, 2014 9:37am
Quoting Dewachen77
{quote} Recurrent in H4 ... nice. I think there is a plan behind this, a big move soon ?
My humble opinion is still bearish.

  1. 1H is still below 300EMA (down)
  2. Gap down has not been closed indicating very strong supply. (down)
  3. We're still in a 3 wave count (down....but)
  4. 5 days away from Month close... and if it does, it will be 1M below the 24 m.average on the bollinger (ie. indicates down)

**I am expecting a counter-trend wave... and I'm no EW expert but basically, it needs a rest. I don't know where and when it will come.
Having said that it seems like we haven't exhausted the move down. We are breaking all sorts of support levels from more than a year ago.

**I've been reading up on Sam Seiden and looking for a appropriate Demand Zones. How this relates to TZ/RZ? These demand zones haven't been returned to. They don't necessarily have a "problem" but they were zones where previous demand was "in-balanced" (Sam Seiden's words not Eurusdd's!)

The ** comments are all higher timeframe stuff. The lower timeframe I am experimenting with TZ combined with 2 other indicators and one price strategy. Having mild success but still need time to iron out decision making kinks.

I'm undecided on whether it will be a big move in the direction of main trend, or whether it will be a whipsaw move. I'm siding on the latter. So I will probably sit it out on news days and enter on re-tests/retracement of the move.

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,016
  • Aug 26, 2014 10:09am Aug 26, 2014 10:09am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey Josh, Was just thinking whether your recent breakthrough was done in the way you just described.... 2 accounts to separate the different strategies? And since then, have you amalgamated them into one? Cheer dude! Vlad
I have multi account for testing! All live and its great to keep the track of each one indivdually!

Best of luck
  • #7,017
  • Aug 26, 2014 10:54am Aug 26, 2014 10:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} My humble opinion is still bearish. 1H is still below 300EMA (down) Gap down has not been closed indicating very strong supply. (down) We're still in a 3 wave count (down....but) 5 days away from Month close... and if it does, it will be 1M below the 24 m.average on the bollinger (ie. indicates down) **I am expecting a counter-trend wave... and I'm no EW expert but basically, it needs a rest. I don't know where and when it will come. Having said that it seems like we haven't exhausted the move down. We are breaking all sorts of support levels...
Thanks Vlady, i think you are right. My AU order is closed (just some pips below my target). My NU & UCHF (second one) target is not reached (and NU hit my SL ...) . I think i must forget them, especially NU. I am sure NU will go down fast this week (latest is next week) ...
  • #7,018
  • Aug 26, 2014 10:59am Aug 26, 2014 10:59am
Quoting vlady1974
4H High = 3205 Low = 3186, range = 19 pips! LOL
New 4H candle: 3207 to 3187 (as of time of writing) range. = 20 pip range

I sold at 3207 and exited at 3195.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #7,019
  • Aug 26, 2014 11:44am Aug 26, 2014 11:44am
Quoting josh11
{image}
How many of you took notice of this point Eurusdd!!!

Think about this most indicators are lagging yes! Now if a rare event happen in your indicator per day or per week! Then we can think that this rare event will not happen again!!

We trade the fact that the rare event has happen and will not happen again!!

You need to look at these rare event and figure out which indicator/indicators can show u this either per day/session/week!

Best of luck
  • #7,020
  • Aug 26, 2014 12:07pm Aug 26, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting josh11
{quote} How many of you took notice of this point Eurusdd!!! Think about this most indicators are lagging yes! Now if a rare event happen in your indicator per day or per week! Then we can think that this rare event will not happen again!! We trade the fact that the rare event has happen and will not happen again!! You need to look at these rare event and figure out which indicator/indicators can show u this either per day/session/week! Best of luck
Indeed.... that concept alone was ringing in my ear when I was reading up on Sam Sieden's Supply/Demand zones :

Quoting vlady1974
I've been reading up on Sam Seiden and looking for a appropriate Demand Zones. How this relates to TZ/RZ? These demand zones haven't been returned to. They don't necessarily have a "problem" but they were zones where previous demand was "in-balanced" (Sam Seiden's words not Eurusdd's!)
And the simple indicator for these? Horizontal Lines!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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