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AUD/USD

  • #84,261
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:48am Aug 26, 2014 4:48am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't expect big influence from USD ...... AUD is more susceptible to its trading partners than USD .......
It seems that the AUD interest rate needs adjustment to bring it into line with reality. Tomorrow construction work done is expected to show a fall and thursday Private Capex would not be expected to be too bright either. Still the AUD bounces along.
  • #84,262
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:50am Aug 26, 2014 4:50am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} It seems that the AUD interest rate needs adjustment to bring it into line with reality. Tomorrow construction work done is expected to show a fall and thursday Private Capex would not be expected to be too bright either. Still the AUD bounces along.
Could be.

For the time being, next US data if better than expected would probably boost AUDJPY........ > AUDUSD .

If less than expected > boost AUDUSD .......
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  • #84,263
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:55am Aug 26, 2014 4:55am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Could be. For the time being, next US data if better than expected would probably boost AUDJPY........ > AUDUSD . If less than expected > boost AUDUSD ....... {image}
thanks I will watch that
  • #84,264
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:12am Aug 26, 2014 5:12am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Could be. For the time being, next US data if better than expected would probably boost AUDJPY........ > AUDUSD . If less than expected > boost AUDUSD ....... {image}

This month's raw figure is very much a lottery.
There is extreme variance in economist estimates because of a surge in Boeing orders in July. The aircraft manufacturer took a record 324 orders in the month and that has estimates for durable goods orders as high as 38.1%. That would easily beat the all-time record of +16.6% for this series but beware that any gain will almost certainly unwind a month later (the worst ever report of -13.9% came a month after the best-ever record).
The numbers are seasonally adjusted so some of the strength could also be stripped out. The consensus is 8.0% but one estimates is at just 0.5%.
When the headlines hit it could raise eyebrows and even spark a kneejerk in markets but most traders will look to the line on capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft for a clearer gauge of underlying economic demand. It’s expected up 0.2%.
  • #84,265
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:18am Aug 26, 2014 5:18am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} It seems that the AUD interest rate needs adjustment to bring it into line with reality. Tomorrow construction work done is expected to show a fall and thursday Private Capex would not be expected to be too bright either. Still the AUD bounces along.
Construction Work Done is very much 3rd tier data and CapEx has to be way out of market expectations to have any effect on AUD
  • #84,266
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:22am Aug 26, 2014 5:22am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} Construction Work Done is very much 3rd tier data and CapEx has to be way out of market expectations to have any effect on AUD
noted thanks
  • #84,267
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:22am Aug 26, 2014 5:22am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} This month's raw figure is very much a lottery. There is extreme variance in economist estimates because of a surge in Boeing orders in July. The aircraft manufacturer took a record 324 orders in the month and that has estimates for durable goods orders as high as 38.1%. That would easily beat the all-time record of +16.6% for this series but beware that any gain will almost certainly unwind a month later (the worst ever report of -13.9% came a month after the best-ever record). The numbers are seasonally adjusted so some of the strength...
Aware of the Boeing order, hence it might be bullish for AUDJPY.......
  • #84,268
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:28am Aug 26, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Aware of the Boeing order, hence it might be bullish for AUDJPY.......
So is everyone else
  • #84,269
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:37am Aug 26, 2014 5:37am
And the flows continue
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  • #84,270
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:49am Aug 26, 2014 5:49am
Quoting Ken A
And the flows continue {image}
Core durable goods orders at -.08 with the previous months revision up 1.1 to 1.9 is almost equivalent to the target of .5 isn't it?
  • #84,271
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:51am Aug 26, 2014 5:51am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} See what it will do around .933x .......... The entry don't have enough swing distance to keep ........
and now your target has been hit and you have time to reflect
  • #84,272
  • Aug 26, 2014 5:57am Aug 26, 2014 5:57am
AUDUSD re-testing important resistance level near 0.9330, breaking which 0.9345, 0.9380 and 0.9410 can't be denied. Downside support of 0.9300 becomes important.
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  • #84,273
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:03am Aug 26, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Ken A
And the flows continue {image}
I do not think so ... As I said - Sun Storm changing reality in brains -)))

but now we have triangle which has outcome to 0.9220
  • #84,274
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:05am Aug 26, 2014 6:05am
tp II - h4
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  • #84,275
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:12am Aug 26, 2014 6:12am
Quoting SydneyGuru
{quote} I do not think so ... As I said - Sun Storm changing reality in brains -))) but now we have triangle which has outcome to 0.9220

I would like to you to be correct because I will get a new wetsuit when I close my shorts, Ken however has a firmer track record than yours so I am not too optimistic for an early revisit to 9220.
  • #84,276
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:24am Aug 26, 2014 6:24am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} I would like to you to be correct because I will get a new wetsuit when I close my shorts, Ken however has a firmer track record than yours so I am not too optimistic for an early revisit to 9220.
Do not worry.

Last so impressive move was 6 Aug. and after we can see much more impressive move down.

As I said - this is a typical AUD behaviour.

Last week before RBA ... all month bad data ... no fundamentals for move ... as i said .... sun storm melted brains
  • #84,277
  • Aug 26, 2014 6:27am Aug 26, 2014 6:27am
AUDUSD seems to continue with its range bound trade. Would wait till it decisively conquers 100-day SMA important resistance (0.9340) for confirmation of bullish momentum to continue.
Rejection from this important resistance and drop back below 0.9300-0.9280 strong support would confirm retest a trend-line support near 0.9240.
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  • #84,278
  • Aug 26, 2014 4:42pm Aug 26, 2014 4:42pm
Short term AUD looks to be heading higher to ~94 mark which is the top of channel which has been happening for a few months now.

Fundamentally thought AUD is overvalued and longer term I still see lower prices.

In the meantime I'm long looking for the top of the range and/or 61.8% fib retrace of jul to aug fall.
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One Good Trade.
  • #84,279
  • Aug 26, 2014 11:18pm Aug 26, 2014 11:18pm
On which basis AUD is going up since last news was negative?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #84,280
  • Aug 26, 2014 11:54pm Aug 26, 2014 11:54pm
Good Morning!
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