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The similarity system

  • #6,961
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:16am Aug 25, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}How many of the 23 clear calls I made here within the last three weeks failed? Just two!!!! How many pips are you expected to lose? less that 40!!!! How many pips were gained? 675!!! Don't worry: you would never know my thoughts about eurusd again to even have the pleasure of choosing to ignore them!!! It is difficult trading with emotional traders!!! Especially those who don't follow strict rules!
It's hard not to take those comments personally but I would advise to replace the monkey on his back, it's his and you don't need to take it on.

You deal in probabilities so you know that roughly 80% of the people reading the thread won't get it and will blame you for it, 20% will get some or all of it but will make mistakes implementing it/create their own variations. About 1% might get it all and take it forward.

On behalf of those who have understood some of it and are managing to make some money from it, I thank you and would love to see you back when your research/studies have been given appropriate prioritisation.
  • #6,962
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:42am Aug 25, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}No! just letting the house know that I am not always right and that my last call failed! That is a rare event!
You are great gentlement Eurusdd .... about SL, yes you have told us so many times about it, and it is very clear if i see your statement at your other thread, use always 10 pips sl. You told us not to follow your style of trading, that not using sl. If some of us do not use sl, it is our own responsibility. I get a very good result following your call, and it is normal that price some times touch my sl. Overall following your call gives me profit >>>>> than loss, this is good. This is what i need ... and i know it is rare ... Thank you for your calls ...
  • #6,963
  • Aug 25, 2014 6:46am Aug 25, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Eurusdd
A rare event occurred. My call for eurusd failed within the time-frame I gave!!! POO happens!
Any one know, what is POO ??
  • #6,964
  • Aug 25, 2014 6:57am Aug 25, 2014 6:57am
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} Any one know, what is POO ??
It's NOT an abbreviation of Point Of Observation
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #6,965
  • Aug 25, 2014 7:03am Aug 25, 2014 7:03am
We need to go lower.
  • #6,966
  • Aug 25, 2014 7:06am Aug 25, 2014 7:06am
Very little posting, is anyonetrading now...
  • #6,967
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:16am Aug 25, 2014 8:16am
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} Any one know, what is POO ??
Shit happens :-)
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,968
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:19am Aug 25, 2014 8:19am
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Shit happens :-)
Yes, shit happens 3% of the time But 97% we have miracle.
  • #6,969
  • Edited 9:03am Aug 25, 2014 8:51am | Edited 9:03am
Please tell me if I want to catch up with this system where should I start and don't need to go through 350 pages. It will take a lof time to go through 350 pages. Thanks in advance.
  • #6,970
  • Aug 25, 2014 8:53am Aug 25, 2014 8:53am
Quoting GoldenEA
Please tell me if I want to catch up with this system where should I start and don't need to go through 350 pages. It will take a lof time to go through 250 pages. Thanks in advance.
if you mean last part relating to probabilities - go to page 286
Mind is the King
  • #6,971
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:10am Aug 25, 2014 9:10am
Quoting feline207
{quote} Yes, shit happens 3% of the time But 97% we have miracle.
I am selling everything below 1.321100
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,972
  • Aug 25, 2014 10:03am Aug 25, 2014 10:03am
Quoting MikiMax
{quote} if you mean last part relating to probabilities - go to page 286
Thanks a lot.
  • #6,973
  • Aug 25, 2014 11:46am Aug 25, 2014 11:46am
Quoting samaralala
{quote} I am selling everything below 1.321100
Yes, I see more downside. No highs have been taken since the main gap.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,974
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:11pm Aug 25, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Freefox
Attached is new version of indicator called Transient_Zones (it replaces the prior one I loaded called Fractal_Zones). It seems more appropriately named now as it’s been improved to identify not just the transient zones (TZs) at fractal highs/lows but those that form inter-bar. {file} It now also works real-time and fixes the issue where the zones disappeared on open of next bar – so all history is kept on the chart now...
hey Freefox, could you kindly post the MQ4 file for that indicator?
  • #6,975
  • Aug 25, 2014 4:12pm Aug 25, 2014 4:12pm
Hello all,

this is my first post on this forum so please be kind ;-) I just wanted to share some thoughts and calculations. I think this is a very interesting and potentially profitable way to look at price development. No matter where this journey takes me I want to thank EURUSDD!

Maybe I am wrong but the follow statistic is what I understand so far which doesn't match some others conclusions/posts:

1. First we are looking at a "h" which makes a high percentage of bars be "recurrent" (> 97%)
Example:
Tool: Metatrader 4
Indicator: My own
Pair: EUR-USD
Timeframe: H1
Time of analysis: 10:30 pm at GMT+2
h = 72 (this is not a recommendation, just an example)
Bars that were checked: 48385
Transient bars/prices (bars/prices that were NOT hit by price h (72) hours before and h (72) hours after the bar: 663
This means that 1.4% of the bars are transient and 98.6% of the bars are recurrent
BUT:
The "interesting" bars (or prices) are not the transient BUT the ones that turn out NOT to be transient although (or because?) they have not been touched for h hours (72)
These are 5132 of all bars which I will call "potential" transient but that will become recurrent with a high chance!!!
So we are looking at 5132 bars/prices that will potentially become recurrent and that are potential prices to trade towards to because we are expecting them to be "wiped" out.
The conclusion is that we are dealing with 89% (1.0 - 663 / 5132) of the potential trades will hit their target.
BUT:
Not all of the 5132 potential trades are really tradable because they don't leave room for spread and some profit depending on the used timeframe before price touches and makes them recurrent. This will be the next analysis that I will look at.

Does the above make sense? Am I on the right track? Is it worth doing more analysis in this direction?

If so ... the next question is how many potential trades leave room for a profit and how the probability changes by time and distance from "our " potential transient (and hopefully recurrent) price.

Best Regards

P.S. English is not my native language ...
Nothing is impossible as long as you believe in it.
  • #6,976
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:01pm Aug 25, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting Christmas14
Hello all, this is my first post on this forum so please be kind ;-) I just wanted to share some thoughts and calculations. I think this is a very interesting and potentially profitable way to look at price development. No matter where this journey takes me I want to thank EURUSDD! Maybe I am wrong but the follow statistic is what I understand so far which doesn't match some others conclusions/posts: 1. First we are looking at a "h" which makes a high percentage of bars be "recurrent" (> 97%) Example: Tool: Metatrader 4 Indicator: My own Pair: EUR-USD...
Hi,
the recurrence statistic indicator V2 does much of this analysis out of the box. I get slightly different numbers with it for h=72, but overally your result looks fine.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7682396#post7682396

Cheers,
kprsa
  • #6,977
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:39pm Aug 25, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting Christmas14
... BUT: The "interesting" bars (or prices) are not the transient BUT the ones that turn out NOT to be transient although (or because?) they have not been touched for h hours (72) ...
Can you post an image of such bars you're talking about? I don't understand this part.
  • #6,978
  • Aug 25, 2014 11:20pm Aug 25, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting kprsa
Hi all, Update to the Recurrence statistic indicator, it contains more useful statistical quantities. I separate the stats for transient (for example when the candle closes above the maximum of previous h bars) and potential fractal (candle closes below the max of previous h bars, even though the high of it was higher than the previous max). The resolving of the problem bar means that the potential transient/fractal zone was cleared within the next h bars (And this implies the zone width k=0). This strong condition is in principle not necessary...
Hi kprsa,

Thank you for pointing out your indicator. I had seen it but was too blind the last days focussing on "reeinventing the wheel" because I like to programm. I will compare your results with mine. Are you working on the timing/probabilty part? If so then maybe we can combine our efforts!

@summicron:
I will post a picture later today.

Thanks again,

Christmas14
Nothing is impossible as long as you believe in it.
  • #6,979
  • Aug 26, 2014 12:00am Aug 26, 2014 12:00am
Quoting summicron
{quote} Can you post an image of such bars you're talking about? I don't understand this part.
Hello summicron,

I hope the two attached pictures make it clear:

1. The transient example is a fully developed transient price range that is not touched 72h before and after (happens 1.4% in my example)
2. The "possible transient" price range in the second picture was not touched for 72h but is currently developing. The right orange range will be covered completely (make the price range recurrent) within the next 66 hours (price range is already 6 hours old) with a probability of 89% and it will NOT be completely covered with a probability of 11%. That statistic should give us a good opportunity BUT price can move far away inbetween or even not come back with a probability of 11%. So to me the most important question is when and where to enter (like always) to avoid these "rare" good-bye-forever-bars. I think this is where the real work starts ...

Best Regards,

Christmas14
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Transient1.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: PossibleTransient.png Size: 39 KB
Nothing is impossible as long as you believe in it.
  • #6,980
  • Aug 26, 2014 12:48am Aug 26, 2014 12:48am
Quoting Christmas14
{quote} Hi kprsa, Thank you for pointing out your indicator. I had seen it but was too blind the last days focussing on "reeinventing the wheel" because I like to programm. I will compare your results with mine. Are you working on the timing/probabilty part? If so then maybe we can combine our efforts! @summicron: I will post a picture later today. Thanks again, Christmas14
Hi, i have done some simple analysis regarding the probability of clearing the zone as a function of time by slightly modifying the indicator. Some of the results are in my previous comments. I have not done much regarding the price difference probability...
It is always good to try to program the indicator by yourself - that is why I made one in the first place...

Gruss aus Freiburg,
kprsa
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