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AUD/USD

  • #84,221
  • Aug 24, 2014 6:31pm Aug 24, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} yeah thanks bet wrong on this one, sold at very wrong time thought good US news and $ strength would be enough to drop the Aussie but boy was I wrong... was at -$200+ Friday able to close gap down thankfully today as US$ caused gap downs across the board got out with a small loss. Thankfully my $300 s/l wasn't hit Friday.

I don't want to come across as being mean.....but are you trading for a living or for some extra coffee money? I was kind of joking when I said phew......we all start from somewhere.....keep losses small is important.

Good luck.......if I were to crap my pants about 300 bucks I do not think I could trade.......

Cheers and all the best.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #84,222
  • Aug 24, 2014 6:52pm Aug 24, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting Faller
{quote} I don't want to come across as being mean.....but are you trading for a living or for some extra coffee money? I was kind of joking when I said phew......we all start from somewhere.....keep losses small is important. Good luck.......if I were to crap my pants about 300 bucks I do not think I could trade....... Cheers and all the best. Faller.
just trading small for some extra beer money I was never crapping my pants haha just my s/l for the trade I took would of been a $300 loss I would of been 100% OK if it was hit I believed the aussie would drop further back to .92500 levels but its been stalling way too much for me and I don't see it dropping without a decent retrace up above or around my s/l so I got out earlier today for basically break even price. Not trading for living i'm still in school
  • #84,223
  • Aug 24, 2014 9:25pm Aug 24, 2014 9:25pm
Gap filled lets see where it wants to go.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #84,224
  • Aug 25, 2014 12:18am Aug 25, 2014 12:18am
Long this mother fker??? I can't decide.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #84,225
  • Aug 25, 2014 12:30am Aug 25, 2014 12:30am
Quoting smash1820
Long this mother fker??? I can't decide.
take that break from trading you were talking about, get your head in order, develop a new plan and then trade according to it rather than ask here.

a break sounds like it will do good and clear your head.
  • #84,226
  • Aug 25, 2014 1:49am Aug 25, 2014 1:49am
Time of day... could be setting up for a trend line break south. Currently flat.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #84,227
  • Aug 25, 2014 1:51am Aug 25, 2014 1:51am
Quoting smash1820
Long this mother fker??? I can't decide.
If you have stopped, you have stopped.....
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #84,228
  • Aug 25, 2014 2:48am Aug 25, 2014 2:48am
Quoting smash1820
Long this mother fker??? I can't decide.
Imo if you can't see a trade then there's no trade to be had. One of the hardest things to do is not to trade when ther're no trades available. If you're in a position already then that's a diff story.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,229
  • Aug 25, 2014 2:59am Aug 25, 2014 2:59am
Quoting Matts Micro
Imo if you can't see a trade then there's no trade to be had. One of the hardest things to do is not to trade when ther're no trades available. If you're in a position already then that's a diff story.
Yeah I hear ya, except I can "see" trades, and by the time I wrote my last post, I was already in an Aussie position.

The reason?

Quoting SydneyGuru
Hi Guys. Surprisingly, but bulls is going to crash bears ... telling me this pattern on Days and hours graphs. I expecting finally this week 0.9380 target after as predicted move down last week ... and EUR correction not materialized yet. Could be Sept - Oct months UP and from NOVEMBER down when Glenn drop interests again. This is my view
I agree with this guy.

PS: There are always trades available.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #84,230
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:11am Aug 25, 2014 3:11am
This is the last of the pullback...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 2.jpg Size: 599 KB
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #84,231
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:15am Aug 25, 2014 3:15am
Australia quarterly GDP will be announced next week and even a contraction in economy is forecasted. If that's the case,
we may see a sharp drop in AUD as yield difference will narrow down. Considering risk reward of this event, I like short side
especially against USD.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #84,232
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:21am Aug 25, 2014 3:21am
Quoting Blackeagle
Australia quarterly GDP will be announced next week and even a contraction in economy is forecasted. If that's the case, we may see a sharp drop in AUD as yield difference will narrow down. Considering risk reward of this event, I like short side especially against USD. Regards, Blackeagle
Ok, you may be right, be that is not until next week (or so you say). This week is just beginning. Let's take it one step at a time. Short-term I am bullish.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #84,233
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:28am Aug 25, 2014 3:28am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Yeah I hear ya, except I can "see" trades, and by the time I wrote my last post, I was already in an Aussie position. The reason? {quote} I agree with this guy. PS: There are always trades available.
Yh kool. I'm not sure I agree with the quote though. China n japan not looking great (region) but aus downturn imo was half expected. If continued bad reports keep coming then maybe a drop otherwise still stable. There is divergence in that the AU is keeping level atm, imo the USD appears to be invested in the AU. Perhaps with selling ir the bears are afraid to commit but if a catalyst hits, eg geopolitical ultimatum then the AU could pay twice the price in the rebalancing.

Bbl.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #84,234
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:29am Aug 25, 2014 3:29am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Ok, you may be right, be that is not until next week (or so you say). This week is just beginning. Let's take it one step at a time. Short-term I am bullish.
Will be announced on Sept. 3rd. I am a long term trader, so not interested in 40-50 pips moves. AUD may go up this week if manages to close above 9328.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #84,235
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:36am Aug 25, 2014 3:36am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Ok, you may be right, be that is not until next week (or so you say). This week is just beginning. Let's take it one step at a time. Short-term I am bullish.
If blackeagle is right it may be safer to look for chances to short the AUD rather than jump in with a buy.
  • #84,236
  • Aug 25, 2014 3:50am Aug 25, 2014 3:50am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} If blackeagle is right it may be safer to look for chances to short the AUD rather than jump in with a buy.
If GDP falls short of expectations, that means a rate cut could be on cards before year end which will definitely send AUD below 0.90 even to 0.85 considering AUD is already overvalued in many terms as stated by RBA. As USD is on demand at the moment, upside would be limited on AUD even if GDP beats expactations, IMO. Therefore trading the short side has a much better risk reward ratio. If 9328 is broken upside, we may see a follow through this week, but I believe traders will start squaring their long positions before weekend or next Monday latest due to this very high risk news event. Therefore we may still have better prices to short this week, that's what I'm looking for.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #84,237
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:51am Aug 25, 2014 5:51am
Considering the descending trend line, AUDUSD likely to decline towards 0.9300 and 0.9280.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 42 KB
  • #84,238
  • Edited 6:46pm Aug 25, 2014 6:10pm | Edited 6:46pm
If we break .9280 there's not much stopping it down .9240

edit: .9240 not .9340
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 53 KB
  • #84,239
  • Aug 25, 2014 6:35pm Aug 25, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting oztrader79
If we break .9280 there's not much stopping it down .9340 {image}
you mean .924?
  • #84,240
  • Aug 25, 2014 6:47pm Aug 25, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} you mean .924?
yep, typo
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