Please correct me if I am wrong but I just do not see much on the news which is likely to move the market, particularly with respect to the US. There may be some news at the end of the week which will have significant impact. Earlier, new home sales have occasionally been known to move the market strongly, but it is not something I would normally expect.
This leaves the market moving on its own, for no particular news- associated reason. It will do this, but when it does the moves seem to be in apparently random directions.
The other thing which I have been wondering about is the degree of dollar weakness. It seems to be out of proportion to the state of the US economy. Even if there is no interest rate increase in August, the degree of weakness seems unjustified. It therefore remains difficult to project what may need to occur for this situation to reverse.
I realize that the market frequently makes no sense at all, but I seem to have a personal need to try to have things make sense.
I appreciate the explanation, but would we grateful for more information.
From what I can see, it would appear that the US would not fare well in comparison with Japan or Switzerland, but I do not get the sense that the UK is doing well economically and while EU is generall doing well, there have been mixed reports.
It is the light of these things that I do not quite understand why USD/JPY is doing as well as it is--I would have expected it to drop much further, say to 113, and I do not see why GBP/USD in particular is doing as well as it is, except insofar as it goes along with EUR/USD which is in a potentially stronger position.
You may have much more information and insight that I do and would be appreciative if you would share.
The housing sector created most of the jobs this last expansion period. If you look at national statistics and local reports, huge inventories are building up in unsold homes. This huge capacity, and inventory is very deflationary. Look at the copper and aluminum charts. Also look at gold, and soon to be oil, they are all pointing to a deflationary period.
Since FOMC is next data set to be opined over. You will see a reflection of USD weakness in all pairs, except emerging markets.
