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The similarity system

  • #6,741
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:42am Aug 22, 2014 1:42am
my thoughts exactly
  • #6,742
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:44am Aug 22, 2014 1:44am
Quoting ephisi
PROBABILITIES GOING FORWARD 1.3344= 0.55 1.3315= 0.62 1.3303= 0.70 1.3290 = 1 1.3270= 0.40 1.3252= 0.30 There for i call Long on EU , probabilities will be updated as d day goes on PS dis is not a trade call, i am experimenting with probabilities
Bar height?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,743
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:47am Aug 22, 2014 1:47am
Quoting Dewachen77
{quote} Morning all .... Thanks Vlady ... i think i find something good .... My algo is not finished yet, but i see a small candle light, it is not far ... Today i found some DS zones in some pairs, all of them are in direction of USD weakening ... ex: EU = 1.3298 - 1.3294 UCHF = 0.9100 - 0.9097, and another is deeper 0.9047 - 0.9053 AU = 0.9333 - 0.9338 NU = 0.8478 - 0.8470 This will be reached today (Yellen / ECB) , the similarity must be restored. If not, i think i must forget those DS zones ....
First target of EU & UCHF is done. Price could be retrace, looking for other opportunity to reach my second target on UCHF, Aussie & Kiwie (could be during NY session .... )
  • #6,744
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:47am Aug 22, 2014 1:47am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Ah, but on the 15M look how Asia took down price early to get that low....classic bull move. So even though it's small ranges, it's a magnified view of what's to come. I don't think they wait for London.... They tell London, this is what we did.... Do your thing.
lol asia euro london and us most time never agree, we needed that asia move down to gather strength for a push up, if you look at 30mins tf down ward another leg was created but not on the 1hr. when you see such phenomenon where lower tfs disagree with higher tf lower time frame are pointing to retracement before lining up with higher tfs. thats one of the principles of choosing direction to holdtrade or close trade
  • #6,745
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:49am Aug 22, 2014 1:49am
Quoting ephisi
PROBABILITIES GOING FORWARD 1.3344= 0.55 1.3315= 0.62 1.3303= 0.70 1.3290 = 1 1.3270= 0.40 1.3252= 0.30 There for i call Long on EU , probabilities will be updated as d day goes on PS dis is not a trade call, i am experimenting with probabilities
Nice calculation Ephisi, thanks.
  • #6,746
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:04am Aug 22, 2014 2:04am
Quoting Dewachen77
{quote} Nice calculation Ephisi, thanks.
That was valid for one hour, but i still believe there is more up to go
  • #6,747
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:05am Aug 22, 2014 2:05am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} lol asia euro london and us most time never agree, we needed that asia move down to gather strength for a push up, if you look at 30mins tf down ward another leg was created but not on the 1hr. when you see such phenomenon where lower tfs disagree with higher tf lower time frame are pointing to retracement before lining up with higher tfs. thats one of the principles of choosing direction to holdtrade or close trade


that's why I use Asia as a "lower timeframe " indicator to London and New York.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,748
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:06am Aug 22, 2014 2:06am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Bar height?
lol For now its still an experiment, pure assumption until we crack the code of calculating probabilities. i have an idea of what should be used in calculation but im not a mathematician
  • #6,749
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:07am Aug 22, 2014 2:07am
ephisi - you see how quick that currency strength meter can change. When I commented before EUR was 6.0 and USD was 1.1 - now at time of writing EUR is 3.6 and USD is 2.6.
  • #6,750
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:08am Aug 22, 2014 2:08am
Quoting handy148
ephisi - you see how quick that currency strength meter can change. When I commented before EUR was 6.0 and USD was 1.1 - now at time of writing EUR is 3.6 and USD is 2.6.
yea i see but dont take its signals against the trend
  • #6,751
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:11am Aug 22, 2014 2:11am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} lol For now its still an experiment, pure assumption until we crack the code of calculating probabilities. i have an idea of what should be used in calculation but im not a mathematician
liquidgenius has offered to help out though with calculations
  • #6,752
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:12am Aug 22, 2014 2:12am
Quoting handy148
ephisi - you see how quick that currency strength meter can change. When I commented before EUR was 6.0 and USD was 1.1 - now at time of writing EUR is 3.6 and USD is 2.6.
If you are using the Currency strength meter.. just aim for 5-10 pips..its more like scalping bcos it changes very fast..better still trade a pair that has few spreads for this method.
  • #6,753
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:13am Aug 22, 2014 2:13am
I don't use the CSM as an indi - just a confirmation sometimes.
  • #6,754
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:15am Aug 22, 2014 2:15am
Quoting handy148
I don't use the CSM as an indi - just a confirmation sometimes.
cool
  • #6,755
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:21am Aug 22, 2014 2:21am
a yellow 3 just popped up on my 1hr chart, i guess its time for retracement
  • #6,756
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:24am Aug 22, 2014 2:24am
In calculating probabilities, Markov Chains
  • #6,757
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:29am Aug 22, 2014 2:29am
Quoting ephisi
a yellow 3 just popped up on my 1hr chart, i guess its time for retracement
if 1hr trendline breaks Bulls may have some trouble going back up especially if we close below 1.3281
  • #6,758
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:31am Aug 22, 2014 2:31am
I make next target 73 but I'm probably wrong.
  • #6,759
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:34am Aug 22, 2014 2:34am
Quoting burnssss
In calculating probabilities, Markov Chains
do you mean markov chains can be used for calculating probabbilities?
  • #6,760
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:38am Aug 22, 2014 2:38am
EU got support at daily open line - for now anyway.
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