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The similarity system

  • #6,701
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:39pm Aug 21, 2014 12:39pm
eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 24minutes

second prediction

eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 3 hrs 24minutes(end of daily candle)
  • #6,702
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:40pm Aug 21, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Bartleby
{quote} sorry for nit-picking here , but "A state i is transient if the probability of returning to the state is < 1. i.e. there is a non-zero probability that the system never returns to the state." or maybe i´m not understanding it correct. Could be much likely too
h-transient - probability of return <1
h-recurrent - proability of return = 1
What do you mean REAL transient prices. All prices are returned to eventually, but it depends on H right?
  • #6,703
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:55pm Aug 21, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting ephisi
eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 24minutes second prediction eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 3 hrs 24minutes(end of daily candle)
@eurusdd was trying to teach us this concept before he decided to leave classes for weekend. He said pick a number and predict where price will close. That is price is a function of time
  • #6,704
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:14pm Aug 21, 2014 1:14pm
I imagine he is using matrix to calculate the market position. I think in Forex this would equate to Stochastic matrix. His initial distribution as a row vector would very much interest me.

Possibly for weeks - given his calls ' market will return by the end of the week'.
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,705
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:32pm Aug 21, 2014 1:32pm
We've got Yellen talking tomorrow - let's see what she brings to the party.
  • #6,706
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:45pm Aug 21, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting handy148
We've got Yellen talking tomorrow - let's see what she brings to the party.
Who cares what she is going to say Hawkish or Dovish EUR is going up! Didn't you see it today? Eurusdd said it is going up no matter what.
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,707
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:58pm Aug 21, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting jurn_e
{quote} Can you show the developing zones that didn't become transient zones just like this: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1494191&d=1408614879
I'll give it a shot, when I find time.
  • #6,708
  • Aug 21, 2014 4:12pm Aug 21, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} The Recurrence statistic indy would look nicer with the plot of the boxes, so I'll make that and share it as soon as I find the time (weekend or so).

cheers
hannele
  • #6,709
  • Aug 21, 2014 4:36pm Aug 21, 2014 4:36pm
here we are, ready for landing in tokyo
Attached Image
  • #6,710
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:04pm Aug 21, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting pooyan2012
i think price will come down to 1.3250 and then go up
I see a problem at 1.3250 also, which it might return too. The problem I have with delicate levels is that it could take more than a year to get back there. In this case I would not expect it to get there, I would expect down to 1.3260. Anything more than that is possible but less likely. My signal to sell was at 1.3284 area. If I get a buy signal between 1.3284 and 1.3260 I would exit.
  • #6,711
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:01pm Aug 21, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} TZ 3261 TZ 3276 I'm scalped a few in between as well as from today's low. Currently a 2.5hr cycle from tz to tz on the 5M.
Morning all ....

Thanks Vlady ... i think i find something good .... My algo is not finished yet, but i see a small candle light, it is not far ...
Today i found some DS zones in some pairs, all of them are in direction of USD weakening ...
ex:
EU = 1.3298 - 1.3294
UCHF = 0.9100 - 0.9097, and another is deeper 0.9047 - 0.9053
AU = 0.9333 - 0.9338
NU = 0.8478 - 0.8470

This will be reached today (Yellen / ECB) , the similarity must be restored. If not, i think i must forget those DS zones ....
  • #6,712
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:42pm Aug 21, 2014 8:42pm
Quoting ephisi
CONDITION SATISFIED im long at 1.3275 10pips stop attempting to break previous high lets see if i got it right trying to operate in the spirit of eurusdd, i hope he has impacted me with his spirit before leaving
well i got that right . Im now short at 1.3278 10pips SL Attempting a break of 70/73 This may be the start of bear continuation if we assume that asia sets direction for today. will go long if conditions satisfy
  • #6,713
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:45pm Aug 21, 2014 8:45pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} well lets see whose got the holy grail Note if we dont break the top in the next few hours asia will do that. we could glide sideways before up 1.3303 first target, 1.3344 second target
we made a new high at 88 so i was right, then we have been sliding sideways in asia as i said
  • #6,714
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:46pm Aug 21, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting ephisi
eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 24minutes second prediction eurusd closes above 1.3270 in the next 3 hrs 24minutes(end of daily candle)
CONDITION SATISFIED
  • #6,715
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:08pm Aug 21, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting Eurusdd
Ok fellow traders. I got this important information that I would like to share with you. There is a serious mis-price formed at 1.3405. There is a 2nd degree problem at 1.3344. This points to the development of a new trend. So, I will urge bears to be careful. Today or by friday eurusd is heading in that direction for correction and maybe continuation!!! I am sorry for returning!
I am sure today is the action day .... I will buy at the deep .... just with very small lot or tight money management, bigger lot at moving time ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TZ-eu-1.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #6,716
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:11pm Aug 21, 2014 9:11pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} we made a new high at 88 so i was right, then we have been sliding sideways in asia as i said
Yes, you are right buddy ... i have a short at the moment ...
  • #6,717
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:51pm Aug 21, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} In that case, then your theory is partly validating mine. If news is price, the Asia knows price direction but they don't have the volume like London or New York. But why would a Goldman Sachs HK trader want to lose out to a NYC trader? Doesn't make sense. So to me, Asia (for their legal entities at least) must know or set direction for the rest of the day.

Most major banks are international and have offices in Asia, etc, and this work around the clock. Here is what ex-delaer FTI (by the way, he has a very long and often esoteric thread, but worth the browse) has to say on the subject:

"Hi semar,

Like I said no question is silly. don't worry.

About daylight,
Being tier 1, my dealing room operates round the clock.
I had 3 shift of dealers,
the number of dealers are biggest on sg time.
the number of dealers are smaller on london
During london morning , both my sg dealers and london dealer team are operational
By london afternoon, up to Ny cross over whats left is the london shift.
by NY afternoon , only 1 spot dealer is in and my futures dealers are in the room , as CME take over NY afternoon dealing and most interbank activity slows to a crawl. then Wellington (twinlight zone)and back to Sg.

So when I say daylight, I mean each teams daylight, but the dealers have bigger lines during Sg daylight, due to seniority compared to the graveyard shift dealers. At all times I am on standby so my daylight is 24 hrs, esp during release of figs nights. I have a choice for selecting which sector I am active on. For your purpose you should consider when you are babvsitting , daylight.
"
  • #6,718
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:03pm Aug 21, 2014 10:03pm
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} Yes, you are right buddy ... i have a short at the moment ...
i missed my first entry from 85 cos i was asleep, i believe thats the trade you took

yea will look for long set up to later
  • #6,719
  • Edited 10:26pm Aug 21, 2014 10:16pm | Edited 10:26pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} i missed my first entry from 85 cos i was asleep, i believe thats the trade you took yea will look for long set up to later
I was also late in entry, it was after asia opened, but some pips is ok
Trying to see another sell in next some minutes .... and planning for a buy at london/ny open...
Edit: i have put a sell at 1.32838 ... , target 1.3275
  • #6,720
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:45pm Aug 21, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} I am sure today is the action day .... I will buy at the deep .... just with very small lot or tight money management, bigger lot at moving time .... {image}
I agree with you. Short then long
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