Rel's Lab | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Rel's Philosophy of Trading Discussion 24 replies

Rel's Forge 53 replies

Rel's Evaluation 13 replies

Nikola's Trading Lab 247 replies

Spud's Lab Accident 22 replies

Attachments: Rel's Lab
Exit Attachments

Rel's Lab

  • #61
  • Aug 18, 2014 9:24pm Aug 18, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Don't get me wrong, I'm convinced you are definitely making money!!! I was writing more for the sake of less experienced traders(whom I tend to empathise with a lot), who usually get the impression that it's even more difficult making money trading without similar indepth technical research, statistical and mathematical analysis. Every traders needs are different, and I am convinced every trader needs to discover what his' or hers' is. That's why I highlighted that phrase, and you also clarified with..."I already know programming so therefore...
Yes I understand your perspective here that everyone is different. For my case, programming is a natural progression so it comes easy. It might not be necessarily the same for another person. Everyone also comes from different circumstances. I have to say my personal circumstances are unique and forces me to acquire a very specific amount of accuracy. It has only been 2-3 years of focused exhaustive research and work. But I know that the pay off is worth a lifetime.

I always asked myself 'is this worth it' everyday. In fact I have other tougher decisions I current make in my life that also pose the same question, but the effort vs reward are almost immeasurable and of high consequence, so the issue of my trading research becomes stark in comparison. Life certainly teaches more lessons, although trading has thought me well.
  • #62
  • Aug 18, 2014 9:32pm Aug 18, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Yes I understand your perspective here that everyone is different. For my case, programming is a natural progression so it comes easy. It might not be necessarily the same for another person. Everyone also comes from different circumstances. I have to say my personal circumstances are unique and forces me to acquire a very specific amount of accuracy. It has only been 2-3 years of focused exhaustive research and work. But I know that the pay off is worth a lifetime. I always asked myself 'is this worth it' everyday. In fact I have other...
  • #63
  • Aug 18, 2014 10:52pm Aug 18, 2014 10:52pm
I'm not very conversant with range bars, so here's a feeble attempt to create bars and swings using volatility instead.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYM30.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot.png Size: 5 KB
  • #64
  • Edited Aug 19, 2014 4:07am Aug 18, 2014 11:01pm | Edited Aug 19, 2014 4:07am
Perhaps I should write up more about this, as to provide further rational.

Quoting Relativity
{quote} Actually I don't think he does (unless he declares it), because Systems Theory requires a strong background of Engineering or Information Technology as far as I know.
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} He can study the conceptual aspects of it and at least develop a sense of respect for integration, synthesis, dependency, transformations, signal processing, algorithmic logic, decision trees, inference, matriculation, etc., etc., etc. There are several good books out there that can help him in that regard. His problem is that he does not wish to understand that B2i is one of 100+ fully integrated indicators producing over 1,200 inputs to a homegrown neural net processor that uses decision algorithms (trade logic) to produce a single trade...
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Ok. I concur. Also: "Recognizing trade worthy patterns in the currency market is not rocket science. Developing a good supporting system that gives you good entry and exit levels relative to those patterns, just might be the closest thing to rocket science I've ever compiled" Indeed. That is where I am. Your statement is spot on. This is what I was explaining earlier: "Any pattern that can be found needs a framework of rules and exceptions to filter the good from the bad". I am discovering more and more that the "good supporting system that...
Albert Einstein : "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."

To be frank, we do live in a complicated work. I am not saying that I do not appreciate the simplicity of life itself. After all, I do enjoy it very much. I enjoy the simplicity that is possible because of countless discoveries, inventions and services that made our lives easier, better and fruitful. To achieve what we humankind have today, is out of the ordinary and does reflect, at least from a Darwinian Evolution point of view, how complex our brains have become today.

Admittedly, I am a complicated woman (thanks haha). As much as I enjoy the simplicity of shopping, I also love the details and complexity required of a 4 hour shopping trip. Oh no haha ok back to talking about systems =d

Just look and appreciate the complexity required to run a civilization, to provide adequate life support for humans. It is a system by itself; food and water supplies, logistics, electricity, health and medical services, law...etc. No doubt that there are also simple and maybe older manual ways to 'get these things done'. E.g. rely on rivers or retrieve fresh water by traveling the top of a hill every morning (my mother used to do that when she was young). I will not discount these methods, but being human, I do want to make my time and life count, especially when options are open and choices can be made!

I can design a system to help me get the water easily with less effort, but it also begs the question; is it worth it? It can be a difficult question to answer. Perhaps, we are the lucky ones, to be not just about to leverage upon what others in the past have done, but also appreciate that we are not the unlucky ones who had to go through the fire of trial and error just to open up options for others. The issue of 'who is going to benefit', need not necessarily be us, but maybe someone else. The question of designing a bad system that actually works (or worse, deceiving works) is another topic altogether IMO (think about how many bad trading systems there are out there!).

If one doesn't get involved in design and development, I think it is perfectly ok to use the systems available to us today, without understanding the underlying dynamics of it. We can never study in detail the entire human history. But we can certainly appreciate it sufficiently, that we do owe a little something to history (in a healthy way of course), that we are certainly not the center of the universe at all, so there is little need to hold arrogance and ego, or even baseless dogma.
  • #65
  • Aug 19, 2014 10:20am Aug 19, 2014 10:20am
Thank you very much Relativity for your sharing now here, and before on Babypips.
I did not participate on Babypips, also I am not at all in programming or coding, but I read it with great interest. It was really interesting to see the evolution and have a glance at the 'thinking process' of someone who is on the right path.
Even if personally I did not achieve for now to use the pieces to build my own 'puzzle context' of the Market (and with years passing I wonder if I will get it one day lol) but I feel somehow glad to see that there are people like you really getting 'it', who are very 'able', and that these people generally (not to say always) share similar traits of mind if I may say so.
It makes me think to the words "everything is as it should be".
So, thank you very much for what you are doing.

Quoting Relativity
Research for TCD to Range Bar Swings relationships has began. For those who actually followed the Babypips thread will know what I am trying to do. I don't mind guesses anyway. Floor's open! =) Note : updated picture. Got the numbers in. A particular person I know will be super happy to see that I finally produced this =)
That said, regarding your picture, maybe I should have paid even greater interest to the thread on Babypips because I am not sure what you are trying to do :
- It seems each Day High and Low are connected to the Close. Except for the last day.
- Each Day High is connected to previous Day Low and each Day Low connected to previous Day High (which is traditional TCD if I am not mistaken) . Except for the low of 13th august, why this low is not connected to the previous Day High ?
- There is also 3 'temporary' Day High that were connected to previous Day Low ( on 13th, 14th, 15th )
After checking, it seems the numbers are the absolute difference (in pipettes) between the two observed points.

Is it about looking at how many and what kind of RB swings are contained inside each TCD and see if some patterns show up ?


Oh, by the way, I also observed this, but maybe these are just coincidences ^^'

http://i62.tinypic.com/30ijbsp.png

030985
  • #66
  • Edited Aug 20, 2014 12:21am Aug 19, 2014 8:50pm | Edited Aug 20, 2014 12:21am
Quoting 030985
Thank you very much Relativity for your sharing now here, and before on Babypips. I did not participate on Babypips, also I am not at all in programming or coding, but I read it with great interest. It was really interesting to see the evolution and have a glance at the 'thinking process' of someone who is on the right path. Even if personally I did not achieve for now to use the pieces to build my own 'puzzle context' of the Market (and with years passing I wonder if I will get it one day lol) but I feel somehow glad to see that there are people...
Yes thank you very much for your compliments. Yes, looking at the evolution of the thinking process helps a lot. I do share keeping in mind of 'giving something back'.

Quoting 030985
{quote} That said, regarding your picture, maybe I should have paid even greater interest to the thread on Babypips because I am not sure what you are trying to do : - It seems each Day High and Low are connected to the Close. Except for the last day. - Each Day High is connected to previous Day Low and each Day Low connected to previous Day High (which is traditional TCD if I am not mistaken) . Except for the low of 13th august, why this low is not connected to the previous Day High ? - There is also 3 'temporary' Day High that were connected to previous Day Low ( on 13th, 14th, 15th ) After checking, it seems the numbers are the absolute difference (in pipettes) between the two observed points. Is it about looking at how many and what kind of RB swings are contained inside each TCD and see if some patterns show up ? Oh, by the way, I also observed this, but maybe these are just coincidences ^^' {image} 030985
To be fair... I nuked the BP thread, so it can be difficult to figure whats going on.

Yes it is a 'traditional' TCD. Its one of the very important ones;
Previous High -> Current Low
Previous Low -> Current High

I won't expound it here but it does capture the essence or what iDoubleStoch calls it, the signature of the candle pretty well. I've done testing to also see that it captures the 'major move' of the candle as well.

Yes the 13 august low is a mistake that I've missed and didn't correct. I said I would correct it, but I've decided to forgo it (will explain more below)

Yes the numbers are the absolute difference (in pipettes) between the two observed points =) Yes I wanted to look at how the RB swings are contained inside each TCD. No, those aren't coincidences.... I've seen too much of this not to believe;
http://i59.tinypic.com/28lyljk.png

Getting back on the 'mistake';
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote}{quote} Good work! Just be sure to involve all time frames relevant to your expected profit event horizon for each trade. That is, make sure your analysis covers time frames that are small enough and large enough to be relevant to the average duration of each trade you make. If you are a Swing or a Long Term Position Trader then using Weekly, Monthly, Annual or even Multiple Annual bars of data such as 2 Yr or 3 Yrs bars (you may have to construct them on your own or use a custom indicator that accurately produces custom time frames). As...
I've decided that trying to merge a time+price based methodology (TCD) with a non-time+price only method (RB + swings) is already a futile task. Foundation wise, both are already different. Why should I even try? It can be like trying to mix oil and water. Therefore the better option is to look at the relationship between price frames. As you can see in the above picture, the price points for the higher price frame are mapped out nicely already, and theirs no need to use TCD for the job.

This leads up to the next question;
How we do statistically look at multiple price frames? Perhaps there's an answer when I look at how to analyze multiple time frames. Let me run around to dig up some relevant material and brainstorm for ideas.... I think I've placed this on the backburner way too long.

It is definitely worth my time as subconsciously I am already using the synergy of both lower and higher price frames combined to trade. If it is in my head subconsciously, then its possible to map out the logic consciously, that will eventually lead up to coding -> system -> take burden off my brain.
  • #67
  • Edited 4:54am Aug 20, 2014 12:44am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting Relativity
This leads up to the next question; How we do statistically look at multiple price frames? Perhaps there's an answer when I look at how to analyze multiple time frames. Let me run around to dig up some relevant material and brainstorm for ideas.... I think I've placed this on the backburner way too long.

It is definitely worth my time as subconsciously I am already using the synergy of both lower and higher price frames combined to trade. If it is in my head subconsciously, then its possible to map out the logic consciously, that will eventually...
http://masterforex-v.su/forex001002003.htm
http://i60.tinypic.com/2l91pxj.jpg
http://i59.tinypic.com/5akv2u.jpg

http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_401.htm
http://i58.tinypic.com/29dh8ax.gif



http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/under...rade-1194.html
Quote
For example, if I say, the 13-week is overbought, I expect to see a 13-week correction; and in turn this means that the 18-day swing probably will change its trend. This allows me to assess statistically a time and price window for the correction - using 13-week corrective stats and 18-d impulsive stats as well as Fibo targets.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7684783
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote}Remember, everything in Technical Systems Based Trading is predicated on observing and accounting for Price Action in Multiple Time Frames for good Situational Awareness. If you are going to reach the higher echelons of accuracy in your trading, to the point where what you do seems like "magic" to other Traders, while mitigating risk as much as possible, you have to learn the skill of simultaneously accounting for price action in multiple Time Frames. That is a Visualization process/skill that you have to find a way to develop on your own.
  • #68
  • Aug 20, 2014 7:09am Aug 20, 2014 7:09am
Thank you for your replies Relativity.

Quoting Relativity
{quote} How we do statistically look at multiple price frames? Perhaps there's an answer when I look at how to analyze multiple time frames. Let me run around to dig up some relevant material and brainstorm for ideas.... I think I've placed this on the backburner way too long. It is definitely worth my time as subconsciously I am already using the synergy of both lower and higher price frames combined to trade. If it is in my head subconsciously, then its possible to map out the logic consciously, that will eventually lead up to coding -> system...
Well, I guess you are already doing this (I mean if there is any useful information to get from it of course), but I would like to say what comes to my mind if we consider your question "How we do statistically look at multiple price frames?", from a novice point of view of someone just observing your chart example and not knowing too much about what is behind, and not knowing much about what statistics will be useful or not. Maybe also it could help then to better get what you mean by looking at multiple price frames.
I would maybe try firstly to categorize the Higher Price Frame swings. For the sake of example one category could be "a Red swing going from the Day High to the same Day Low" ( maybe we can expand this further and add for example 'preceded by a blue Higher Price Frame swing' as on the second day on your chart ), and then see for each category how the swing is looking with a smaller Price Frame. In a same category you could have a Higher Price Frame swing made of only one Smaller Price Frame swing, or made of 3 Smaller Price Frame swings, or more...etc. Maybe from this, some patterns could be found or some probabilities derived.

But looking at the pictures of Masterforex, maybe what you look for is a bit different. ^^ Because on these pictures it seems we look at how 2 swings of Higher Price Frames are linked together by the smaller Price Frame swings, if I'm not mistaken.
Mmmm, would it mean that once we observe the appearance of a new Higher Price Frame swing, we could look at how the smaller Price Frame behaved to go from the (end of) previous Higher Price Frame swing to the new one, and get useful information from it ?

P.S : On a side note, it seems the EurJpy found some resistance at the possible target evoked in last post
http://i61.tinypic.com/ykjrd.png
  • #69
  • Edited Aug 21, 2014 8:57am Aug 20, 2014 8:11pm | Edited Aug 21, 2014 8:57am
Quoting 030985
Thank you for your replies Relativity. {quote} Well, I guess you are already doing this (I mean if there is any useful information to get from it of course), but I would like to say what comes to my mind if we consider your question "How we do statistically look at multiple price frames?", from a novice point of view of someone just observing your chart example and not knowing too much about what is behind, and not knowing much about what statistics will be useful or not.
=> Thank you. Yes it can be tricky when we will never know fully what we are testing out would yield results. That is the nature of research.

Quoting 030985
Maybe also it could help then to better get what you mean by looking at multiple price frames. I would maybe try firstly to categorize the Higher Price Frame swings. For the sake of example one category could be "a Red swing going from the Day High to the same Day Low" ( maybe we can expand this further and add for example 'preceded by a blue Higher Price Frame swing' as on the second day on your chart ), and then see for each category how the swing is looking with a smaller Price Frame. In a same category you could have a Higher Price Frame swing...
Its both. I would like to see both ;
1-how lower price frames are contained by higher price frames (for trends)
2-how lower price frames link up higher price frames (for reversals)
There might be more to look for since market states by nature overlap, at least according to my studies.

I don't have to categorize the higher price swings further; I just take them as it is, based off the data extracted after the construction here;
Quoting Relativity
1-The bars are created using a "significant" value, to determine the best range bar value to use.
2-The waves tool is generic at 1 period and is applied to the range bar chart(treat this as 1st level of price frame)
3-Wave lengths are then statistically extracted to determine what is the significant period to use
4-The wave tool is reapplied again using the significant period (treat this as 2nd level of price frame)
5-Repeat 3 and 4 to determine the next price frame level. Personally I stop at 3rd level.
Here's something as a start, that seems to show higher price frames do drive trends and cause the lower price frames to extend further or go beyond swings. This is just a small sample of 1000+ swings; I would get more data later. (update; turns out that I've actually used all data available, so therefore now we can take the results as it is)


http://i60.tinypic.com/jtx8io.png

These numbers are very good; e.g. when a higher priceframe is retracing, the lower priceframe will show 1 swing 41.5%/40.9% of time, as compared to when a higher priceframe is impulsing further, the lower priceframe will show 1 swing 22.7%/25.6% of time. This difference matters; it gives us an expectancy if price would shoot further or not. Before it does, we look for related objective ways to anticipate this (its easier to define a relationship between 2 ideas when both are objective). And when it does, we objectively recognize it and also look for its end.

Another observation; an impulse swing will have twice the swing count, compared to a retracement swing. Although this is strictly by swing count, it reminds me of the 50% rule for retracement swings and 150% rule for impulse swings
  • #70
  • Aug 20, 2014 9:57pm Aug 20, 2014 9:57pm
Reading...
Working real hard just to digest all the information ...

But i enjoy the topic
i worshipped... Momentum
  • #71
  • Aug 20, 2014 10:37pm Aug 20, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting rockrobb
Reading... Working real hard just to digest all the information ... But i enjoy the topic
Thank you very much =) its not much from my point of view, but if it helps you plus you enjoy it, I don't mind.
  • #72
  • Edited 4:12am Aug 21, 2014 3:43am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Your patterns account for A + B + C swings have you considered the D + E swing in relation to your data? Or 5 wave pattern?
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Good question. I've decided to analyze 3 swing types 1st as these make up majority when I go by swing count; 60 to 70% of time. I may attempt at 5 swing types as you can see its around 20% to 25% in future. You had just added something to my to do list =) {image} Just to be sure on both sides of the market, I separated downtrend and uptrend. Not much difference as I see it
Quoting Relativity
{quote}..... I've learned a lot just by data mining all these possibilities, and kinda understood the flow of the market much better. Unfortunately I had yet to make this finding more easier to use on a mechanical basis. Why do I say that? There are 3 known problems; 1-In reality, states can go beyond 3 swings as you know; {image} Squeeze and Expand states are categorized using 3 or more. Trend and Reverse/Resume are categorized using odd numbers; 3,5,7,9...etc Does the difference matter? 2-If we stick every state strictly to 3, we are being blind...
Attempting another shot at sequences. I think its time to load up more data.
http://i61.tinypic.com/20goca0.png
http://i57.tinypic.com/10r8ghd.png
  • #73
  • Edited 10:37pm Aug 21, 2014 9:26pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} {quote} {quote} Attempting another shot at sequences. I think its time to load up more data. {image} {image}
Update :
T3R2S1 is missing, explaining the bump for T3R2T1. Fixing this should even the distribution out; maybe 12% and 8%?

Quoting Relativity
{quote} Yes I see where you are going. My older work ended up with... 16 configurations. I decided to work back and simplify, then let the statistics do the rest.
Not being obsessed with the number 16 (haha), but it merely means that logically I had left out T3R2S1, plus after checking the various combinations on paper. This is much more promising than the older method of classification;

My older work has 2 versions. This is the basic idea;
E->S->T->R->T
When I realized that squeeze and expand states can have more than 3 swings, I tried stacking them up this way by breaking up into 3 and 3, assuming the overlapping helps to keep the continuity;
E3->E3->S3->S3->T3->R3->T3
... but the sequences are too long, so I tried compressing;
E4->S4->T3->R3->T3
... but that lead to issues with squeeze and expand states that are say, 8 swings, which are really outliers. Plus the methods used so far fail to read the context of the market better.

The newer method of classification seems to be more comprehensive without losing the overall logic. Yes there are 16 possible combinations, but at any given time, 2 to 4 are active and can be anticipated, given the current market state. I rather have 2 to 4 ideas of where the market is going, then work out the scenarios to establish the odds, rather than having no idea. The old axiom of the market is either going up or down is true, but I want the context, rather than being over simplistic. Not saying it doesn't work thou.

I've also loaded additional data and see that the distribution didn't change. At any rate, I would put this on hold and focus on multiple priceframes, which is more important.
  • #74
  • Aug 22, 2014 4:32am Aug 22, 2014 4:32am
Quoting Relativity
Its both. I would like to see both ; 1-how lower price frames are contained by higher price frames (for trends) 2-how lower price frames link up higher price frames (for reversals) There might be more to look for since market states by nature overlap, at least according to my studies. I don't have to categorize the higher price swings further; I just take them as it is, based off the data extracted after the construction here;
Thank you, this is interesting to see that both are indeed valuable information to have. Also, yes it makes sense finally not having to categorize them as your Swings may contain already the necessary information due to the way they are designed to be created, if I may say so.

I have few basic questions :
Quoting Relativity
These numbers are very good; e.g. when a higher priceframe is retracing, the lower priceframe will show 1 swing 41.5%/40.9% of time, as compared to when a higher priceframe is impulsing further, the lower priceframe will show 1 swing 22.7%/25.6% of time.
I am not sure I am understanding this correctly.
When you say "the lower priceframe will show 1 swing", do you mean the lower priceframe will also show only 1 swing inside this higher priceframe retracement, 41.5% / 40.9% of the time ?
And that inside the higher priceframe impulse, the lower priceframe will show also only 1 swing 22.7% 25.6% of the time ?
Or isn't that correct ?

Quoting Relativity
{quote} {quote} {quote} Attempting another shot at sequences. I think its time to load up more data. {image} {image}
And here too, I am not sure how to understand the 'names'. Are the 'names' defining only 1 swing, or 3 consecutive swings ? If we consider for example the first one E3E2E1 :
Is it only 1 swing, that can be seen at the same time as a 3rd swing expanding, a 2nd swing expanding, and a 1st swing expanding;
Or is it a chain of 3 swings, with the first one expanding, the second expanding, and the third expanding too ?
  • #75
  • Aug 22, 2014 6:52am Aug 22, 2014 6:52am
Quoting 030985
I am not sure I am understanding this correctly. When you say "the lower priceframe will show 1 swing", do you mean the lower priceframe will also show only 1 swing inside this higher priceframe retracement, 41.5% / 40.9% of the time ? And that inside the higher priceframe impulse, the lower priceframe will show also only 1 swing 22.7% 25.6% of the time ? Or isn't that correct ?
Yes thank you for understanding =) BTW Mr Elliot would had been proud to see this (all mapped out nicely; classical 1-2-3 impulse trend with all the subswings inside; let's 'guess' the followup!);
http://i60.tinypic.com/vr7zaa.png


Quoting 030985
And here too, I am not sure how to understand the 'names'. Are the 'names' defining only 1 swing, or 3 consecutive swings ? If we consider for example the first one E3E2E1 : Is it only 1 swing, that can be seen at the same time as a 3rd swing expanding, a 2nd swing expanding, and a 1st swing expanding; Or is it a chain of 3 swings, with the first one expanding, the second expanding, and the third expanding too ?
Your former answer is correct; you read me correctly.
http://i57.tinypic.com/1zyke87.png
  • #76
  • Edited 10:07pm Aug 22, 2014 9:44pm | Edited 10:07pm
Quoting Relativity
At any rate, I would put this on hold and focus on multiple priceframes, which is more important.
Quoting Relativity
{quote} http://masterforex-v.su/forex001002003.htm {image} {image} http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_401.htm {image} http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/under...rade-1194.html {quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7684783 {quote}
Quoting Relativity
Thats also why I insisted on market states in terms of swings to overlap, so that its much clearer to see how the transition occurs, which I will explain more later. Classical Elliot does not have such a feature, and I have yet to see any WA out there with this, with the minor exception of GWT (trend -> stronger trend; small 1-2-3 -> big 1-2-3).
http://goodmanworks.com/goodman-wave-theory/

I've also remembered that Barros classifies lower timeframe retracements as R0, R1 and R2 in his Natural of Trends book (page 18 to 23). The basic idea is that strong trends create little or weak or moderate retracements.

To be specific, how 'true' is GWT and Barros R0/R1/R2? Personally I would put my money on Barros because GWT doesn't seem to allow variances of trend strength, where else Barros does. I appreciate fixed rules for GWT, but sometimes if the rules are too fixated, we miss opportunities as well. Its not easy to find the right balance.

Picking out the most important retracement points to find overall support/resistance levels in a trend;
http://i61.tinypic.com/ezqu5g.png


http://i59.tinypic.com/8xqz29.png


http://i60.tinypic.com/2yuayy9.png
http://i60.tinypic.com/33cp5if.png

What we can see from the statistics;
-Again, a very common find is that the top 30% of any price range acts like a vacuum. Price retraces 0.30 90% of time regardless of type of trend. This gives us expectancy of either...
1-look for counter trend with the right timing
if the trend is statistically overbought/oversold
put stop outside the projected statistical extreme
exiting just before 0.30
OR
2-attempt to trade with the resume of flow
waiting for 0.30 to happen
put your stop outside the previous swing extreme

-A retracing higher priceframe generally has strong retracements on the lower priceframe. An impulse higher priceframe generally has weak retracements on the lower priceframe. The good news is that this difference is already evident on the 1st retracement swing (!!!), so therefore 2 things can be anticipated;
1-the 2nd or even 3rd retracement strength
2-if a retracing higher priceframe is actually an impulse priceframe in the later stages
This difference is actually documented in Barros book (!!!).
  • #77
  • Edited Aug 24, 2014 12:01am Aug 23, 2014 10:28pm | Edited Aug 24, 2014 12:01am
From http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post7688140
http://i60.tinypic.com/jtx8io.png



Decided that I would need to split the 2 types up if I wanted specific concrete conclusions. I had done enough 'general work'.
http://i61.tinypic.com/2w6xsfl.png


Direct VS Indirect Trend Patterns
http://i59.tinypic.com/e0jzly.png

Looks familiar when compared to MF's studies;
http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_000_01.htm
http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_012.htm
http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_014.htm
http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_015.htm
http://i62.tinypic.com/2ur15rc.gif

http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_016.htm
http://i58.tinypic.com/102ngib.gif


Gets a little more complicated when a 'mini counter trend exists'. Good to sieve these along with the other complicated patterns out, so that I can deal with the direct patterns 1st more objectively.
http://i62.tinypic.com/2j342o6.png




Fortunately, complicated indirect patterns show up 20% to 30% of time. This means indeed we should deal with the simple direct patterns 1st. It is also good news that higher priceframe retracements are simplier 80% of time and tend to stop at max 3 lower priceframe swings 90% of time. Very good =)

http://i58.tinypic.com/28i9rma.png
  • #78
  • Edited Aug 25, 2014 2:24am Aug 24, 2014 1:33pm | Edited Aug 25, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Relativity
Fortunately, complicated indirect patterns show up 20% to 30% of time. This means indeed we should deal with the simple direct patterns 1st. It is also good news that higher priceframe retracements are simplier 80% of time and tend to stop at max 3 lower priceframe swings 90% of time. Very good =) {image}
Results don't look too convincing. Perhaps I am looking at the wrong place by using counts?

http://i57.tinypic.com/2rr9wcy.png

Elliot uses counts; 5 for trend, 3 for reversal.
MasterForex-V assumes trend continues regardless of count and will continue until its reversal point occurs. Perhaps this means time to look for patterns in lower priceframes that joins 2 higher priceframes.
  • #79
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:42am Aug 25, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Yes thank you for understanding =) BTW Mr Elliot would had been proud to see this (all mapped out nicely; classical 1-2-3 impulse trend with all the subswings inside; let's 'guess' the followup!); {image} {quote} Your former answer is correct; you read me correctly. {image}
Thank you very much for your clarification !
Now, I will take some time to grasp what is contained in these lasts posts.
  • #80
  • Aug 25, 2014 9:03am Aug 25, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Yes thank you for understanding =) BTW Mr Elliot would had been proud to see this (all mapped out nicely; classical 1-2-3 impulse trend with all the subswings inside; let's 'guess' the followup!); {image} {quote}
http://i60.tinypic.com/vr7zaa.png


Not the cleanest of followups, but nevertheless price made its way down. =)
http://i62.tinypic.com/2dj14yr.png
0 traders viewing now