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Central Banks & Big Players

  • #13,121
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:14am Aug 21, 2014 8:14am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} None of that **** matters. It's all an illusion. You do realise anything can happen at anytime, right? Ever heard of Chaos Theory? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
You are right, but that's gambling. This is different than trading.
  • #13,122
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:02am Aug 21, 2014 10:02am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} You are right, but that's gambling. This is different than trading.

well, i do not agree with u ~ trading is not being bias~ as long as he has the big RR ratio ....he does not even need to have half winning ratio to be profitable~

if thats nt trading i dont know what trading really it tho~
  • #13,123
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:18am Aug 21, 2014 11:18am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} You are right, but that's gambling. This is different than trading.
Don't analyse the market too much, you'll end up disappointed. I've been doing this for a dozen years now.
Have you ever seen NFP at +500k and the USD dropping like a stone for 300 pips in 2 hours. I have witnessed that and I will never forget it.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,124
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:52pm Aug 21, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} Don't analyse the market too much, you'll end up disappointed. I've been doing this for a dozen years now. Have you ever seen NFP at +500k and the USD dropping like a stone for 300 pips in 2 hours. I have witnessed that and I will never forget it.
I'm trading since 1998. I've seen much more than you can imagine.

wongsiio, this RR is only in your dreams. See some statistics. Also you don't take into account the slippage after the news release.
  • #13,125
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:43pm Aug 21, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Tony112
{image}
Hi Tony, nice trade. What are you using to get the 5 second chart?
  • #13,126
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:14pm Aug 21, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting srmfx
{quote} You are right, but that's gambling. This is different than trading.

Buddy, anybody who has been trading since 98, I would have been 2 years old back then..should easily be able to see that this isn't gambling when the RR is stacked in your favour. This method adapts the same method the casino's use to win. It applies a statistical edge that becomes profitable over time. The whole market analysis way of doing things is a ruse and should not be deemed as something predictable. I would much rather work towards becoming successful at trading on a quantitative basis anyday. Best to you.
  • #13,127
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:17pm Aug 21, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} Don't analyse the market too much, you'll end up disappointed. I've been doing this for a dozen years now. Have you ever seen NFP at +500k and the USD dropping like a stone for 300 pips in 2 hours. I have witnessed that and I will never forget it.
That's right, nobody should ever think they can possibly predict a manipulated market such as FX. It's the big players and banks that move price, not us. Find your edge however and sit back and relax. I thank you Tony for this thread and opening up my eyes early on as it is a path many people seem to miss. Far too many traders are tumbling down that rabbit hole for far too long, and some of them never get out.
  • #13,128
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:55pm Aug 21, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Buddy, anybody who has been trading since 98, I would have been 2 years old back then..should easily be able to see that this isn't gambling when the RR is stacked in your favour. This method adapts the same method the casino's use to win. It applies a statistical edge that becomes profitable over time. The whole market analysis way of doing things is a ruse and should not be deemed as something predictable. I would much rather work towards becoming successful at trading on a quantitative basis anyday. Best to you.
One of the best formulated replies on this thread. Specially this is so true ''his method adapts the same method the casino's use to win.''
Thanks for the support
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,129
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:59pm Aug 21, 2014 8:59pm
As long as it is profitable, it is a good strategy.
Just like doing business, bottomline do we make money? If yes, continue doing it and fine tune it to make even more.
  • #13,130
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:00pm Aug 21, 2014 9:00pm
They say everything happens for a reason. Thinking about it real deep, all those days at the real casino probably made me think of the current method. What didn't kill me made me stronger and I just reversed the table now... I would have never thought that all those losses as a young man would have been a positive thing after all. It's pay-back time...
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,131
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:04pm Aug 21, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting startsomewhe
{quote} Hi Tony, nice trade. What are you using to get the 5 second chart?
oanda provides that
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  • #13,132
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:10pm Aug 21, 2014 9:10pm
Tomorrow I'm trading this: Core CPI m/m / Core Retail Sales m/m

on USD/CAD.

SL 12 TP 200
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,133
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:31am Aug 22, 2014 12:31am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} ...I would have been 2 years old back then...
This explains why you don't understand what I'm talking about. I was trading news releases between 2003 and 2006. It was great. No slippage and price was moving 20-50-100+ pips. Now the rules of the games changed. Slippage could be huge sometimes and the rates are zero, which means that there's no reason the price to move after the economic data are released. This could change soon, but the HFTs are still here.
However, check the statistics and ask yourself "am I really trading with 150 pips profit target?".
Here you can find the statistics: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex_...ope%2FHelsinki
  • #13,134
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:34am Aug 22, 2014 12:34am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} This explains why you don't understand what I'm talking about. I was trading news releases between 2003 and 2006. It was great. No slippage and price was moving 20-50-100+ pips. Now the rules of the games changed. Slippage could be huge sometimes and the rates are zero, which means that there's no reason the price to move after the economic data are released. This could change soon, but the HFTs are still here. However, check the statistics and ask yourself "am I really trading with 150 pips profit target?". Here you can find the statistics:...
1. OANDA has no slippage.

2. I have checked the statistics at FPA and seen the results for myself. They were conclusive. I put a lot of hard work and time into looking at past news releases since 08 and I am happy to have done so.

3. You have to know the right news releases to trade. *Hint. Employment.
  • #13,135
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:41am Aug 22, 2014 1:41am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} 1. OANDA has no slippage. 2. I have checked the statistics at FPA and seen the results for myself. They were conclusive. I put a lot of hard work and time into looking at past news releases since 08 and I am happy to have done so. 3. You have to know the right news releases to trade. *Hint. Employment.
If Oanda has no slipp, why you don't trade the news with buy and sell stops?
  • #13,136
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:13am Aug 22, 2014 2:13am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} If Oanda has no slipp, why you don't trade the news with buy and sell stops?
Indeed not a bad idea at all. I have been trying to figure out a way to that. The thing however is that if that were to be done there would have to be a way to make them trigger 2 mins before the news hit otherwise you would end up being taken out on the huge spread right on release time. Your thoughts?
  • #13,137
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:16am Aug 22, 2014 2:16am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Indeed not a bad idea at all. I have been trying to figure out a way to that. The thing however is that if that were to be done there would have to be a way to make them trigger 2 mins before the news hit otherwise you would end up being taken out on the huge spread right on release time. Your thoughts?
I think that when the CBs start to move the rates, the reaction to news releases will be more volatile and the spread won't be an issue.
  • #13,138
  • Aug 22, 2014 6:52am Aug 22, 2014 6:52am
Just a heads up:

CA Core Retail Sales is a good report to trade out of Canada. However, this release is scheduled along with CA CPI, therefore I’d recommend to pay close attention to both reports and stay out of the market if there is a conflict…
  • #13,139
  • Aug 22, 2014 7:28am Aug 22, 2014 7:28am
I bought USD/CAD. Trade at your own discretion.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,140
  • Aug 22, 2014 7:37am Aug 22, 2014 7:37am
Amazing precision and professional trading. Nothing has been lost.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CPI-RETAILSALES.GIF Size: 34 KB
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