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The similarity system

  • #6,661
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:56am Aug 21, 2014 9:56am
Is it possible to change the box colour once they've been met?
  • #6,662
  • Aug 21, 2014 9:58am Aug 21, 2014 9:58am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} In that case, then your theory is partly validating mine. If news is price, the Asia knows price direction but they don't have the volume like London or New York. But why would a Goldman Sachs HK trader want to lose out to a NYC trader? Doesn't make sense. So to me, Asia (for their legal entities at least) must know or set direction for the rest of the day.
I think the game is slightly more complicated as sometimes they want to kill the stops of other players. Anyway, money is free if you can change the price of EURUSD by 10-20 pips at correct prices/moments...
  • #6,663
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:03am Aug 21, 2014 10:03am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I think the game is slightly more complicated as sometimes they want to kill the stops of other players. Anyway, money is free if you can change the price of EURUSD by 10-20 pips at correct prices/moments...
Oh absolutely! The FX game is bigger than pure speculative investment banks. However, if we make just the one assumption that a move in a direction is like a herd of animals then a change in direction is lead by those at the front. To me this is the Asian session.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,664
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:12am Aug 21, 2014 10:12am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Oh absolutely! The FX game is bigger than pure speculative investment banks. However, if we make just the one assumption that a move in a direction is like a herd of animals then a change in direction is lead by those at the front. To me this is the Asian session.
Funny you say that. I am up most mornings from 5am and all I see is that Asia simply follows the existing trend the day before. Rarely do they venture opposite. I find it easier to trade in their - end of day closing time as it is so predictable..
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,665
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:21am Aug 21, 2014 10:21am
Normally trying to trade Asia is like watching paint dry but there are always exceptions.
  • #6,666
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:25am Aug 21, 2014 10:25am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} The Recurrence statistic indy would look nicer with the plot of the boxes, so I'll make that and share it as soon as I find the time (weekend or so).
Can you show the developing zones that didn't become transient zones just like this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1494191&d=1408614879
Pivot Boss in the making~
  • #6,667
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:30am Aug 21, 2014 10:30am
1.3250 was a stepping stone for the pair when it was on its way up in 2013,
was this one part of the logic behind this turn?
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,668
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:31am Aug 21, 2014 10:31am
thank you @ ezzy smashing pips confidently now
Quoting Ezzy
{quote} Congratulations ephisi!
  • #6,669
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:32am Aug 21, 2014 10:32am
i will been busy trading
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Can you shine some light in this direction while you are at it :-)
  • #6,670
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:39am Aug 21, 2014 10:39am
Here is an example of breaking a Transient region 5min. I see 2 failed attempts. 3rd coming...as I am typing this.

If it pushes though on the 3rd don't go long until it bouces nicely outside (on top of)the transien zone... Vlady isn't that what you were telling us last week?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Similarity Issues to be confirmed.GIF Size: 25 KB
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,671
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:43am Aug 21, 2014 10:43am
Quoting ephisi
anyone believe we may correct 1.3344 today? based on similarity analysis? looking like it to me
just as i expected. Now 1.3303 next on the card 1,3344 next after 1.3303 then master eurusdd will appear with his trade explore. then there will be a rapture. all those against eurusdd will be sent to forex hell while thise for eurusdd will be sent to forex heaven

guys i just got my 3 and 4th eureka moment today 3 had to do with combining timeframes from monthly to 1minuet to sort out conflicts between two timeframe directions and also to know when to hold and when to scalp. ie trading with trend and against trend

4. has to do with pivots points. with the pivots you can trade with only 2pips drawdown. this is how eurusdd does it.

Number 5 eureka moment in the making. is how to calculate probabilities. im not good with maths so i will share the idea with vlady1974 then we know how we will proceed. we will pick a team of the mathematicians in the house and gurus with strenth in other are so we can break the code.

whos with me on this on. vlady1974 i nominate you team leader.

between does anyone have an idea on how eurusdd calculates probabilities? dont need it anyway but i think we need to crack the code
  • #6,672
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:45am Aug 21, 2014 10:45am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Oh absolutely! The FX game is bigger than pure speculative investment banks. However, if we make just the one assumption that a move in a direction is like a herd of animals then a change in direction is lead by those at the front. To me this is the Asian session.
I dont understand why you think that way vlady. The market is 24-hour, it is a constant flow, so why do you think asia has more significance? And we also know that it has lower volume and liquidity, which makes it prone to manipulation and mm deception . If we have your analogy, I think that not the front animals, but those that are strongest are giving the direction. And we know when they are awake. In fact the big moves that represent market trend almost always happen during London and NY sessions, that is where the big players unleash their positions.
  • #6,673
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:46am Aug 21, 2014 10:46am
house i will share my ideas when im less buys. want to focus on the pips
  • #6,674
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:55am Aug 21, 2014 10:55am
Quoting samaralala
Here is an example of breaking a Transient region 5min. I see 2 failed attempts. 3rd coming...as I am typing this. If it pushes though on the 3rd don't go long until it bouces nicely outside (on top of)the transien zone... Vlady isn't that what you were telling us last week? {image}
Yes, but now that I saw it develop on the 1M, I can see how tricky it can be to interpret.
Hence to be able to distinguish between what has happened already (left handside) vs what is happening right now (righthandside) is crucial.

The indi on that chart has the setting turned on to have both sides the same - can't remember what it's called exactly. I have this turned off.

Eg. If my h = 15 and the last top was 3240, 14 bars ago. On the 15th bar price goes to 3250 so now you have a lefthand box of height 10 pips. Price continues to rise every bar by 10 pips for another 4 bars. Then price goes down 20 pips for 2 bars each.

What have we got? The Box to the left is 15 bars wide still... but the original 3240 bar that triggered it is long gone out of the range. Since the next 4 bars increased by 10 each... the box is getting taller! When price goes lower, the box height is retained but now starts forming the RIGHTHANDSIDE.

To me, these are 2 different regions. The left is PAST. Sorry I can't articulate this better. I'm still trying to refine this.
We should add the observation that we should trade with the trend
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,675
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:55am Aug 21, 2014 10:55am
Quoting ephisi
house i will share my ideas when im less buys. want to focus on the pips
Hey ephisi, if you have some time later, it would be nice to post the screen of m15 short from earlier posts
  • #6,676
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:57am Aug 21, 2014 10:57am
Quoting ephisi
house i will share my ideas when im less buys. want to focus on the pips
thanks a lot mate
Appreciate it!
Mind is the King
  • #6,677
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:59am Aug 21, 2014 10:59am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes, but now that I saw it develop on the 1M, I can see how tricky it can be to interpret. Hence to be able to distinguish between what has happened already (left handside) vs what is happening right now (righthandside) is crucial. The indi on that chart has the setting turned on to have both sides the same - can't remember what it's called exactly. I have this turned off. Eg. If my h = 15 and the last top was 3240, 14 bars ago. On the 15th bar price goes to 3250 so now you have a lefthand box of height 10 pips. Price continues to rise every...
Setting is Combine Zones
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,678
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:02am Aug 21, 2014 11:02am
Quoting feline207
{quote} I dont understand why you think that way vlady. The market is 24-hour, it is a constant flow, so why do you think asia has more significance? And we also know that it has lower volume and liquidity, which makes it prone to manipulation and mm deception . If we have your analogy, I think that not the front animals, but those that are strongest are giving the direction. And we know when they are awake. In fact the big moves that represent market trend almost always happen during London and NY sessions, that is where the big players...
No, that is a misconception.
Herd-like behaviour is.... democratic. Consensus.
Otherwise it would be random. A flock of birds don't all have the strongest flying at front. They take turns. They inherently know the direction but if path/obstacles occur they adapt as one not individually.

Anyway, I digress.... I don't place "significance" on Asia. I've merely pointed out my observation since I started studying Eurusdd's stuff. Funnily enough it's been a year. I used Asia "direction" to help forecast Day direction for London and NYC. It was 70% accurate for 1 month then I stopped tracking. But I continued to observe. Not saying it happens all the time all year round. It definitely stops or has stopped on many occasions.

I just don't think it's all necessarily WIN-LOSE to take advantage of arbitrage. And yes, if NYC upon closing spots an opportunity "tomorrow" I am sure that cables and messages are sent to Sydney/Tokyo/Hong Kong Branch of Big Bank Limited to place those orders.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,679
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:06am Aug 21, 2014 11:06am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Yes, but now that I saw it develop on the 1M, I can see how tricky it can be to interpret. Hence to be able to distinguish between what has happened already (left handside) vs what is happening right now (righthandside) is crucial. The indi on that chart has the setting turned on to have both sides the same - can't remember what it's called exactly. I have this turned off. Eg. If my h = 15 and the last top was 3240, 14 bars ago. On the 15th bar price goes to 3250 so now you have a lefthand box of height 10 pips. Price continues to rise every...

1 MIN.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Similarity Issues to be confirmed.GIF Size: 52 KB
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,680
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:07am Aug 21, 2014 11:07am
I see a short term HL is needed below 1.32769 (maybe around 1.3269) before it can go above 1.3300.

If it goes above first, there is something to clean up at 1.32769.
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