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The similarity system

  • #6,561
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:05am Aug 21, 2014 2:05am
1.32430-1.32420 i have a problem in 5m TF to be fixed.
  • #6,562
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:13am Aug 21, 2014 2:13am
Quoting mex2000
{quote} hello when i have two Spikes in the same direction (from the to different cycle windows) and a 3 ball, all at the same time, trend normaly changes (two red Spikes up= sell, two green Spikes down=buy) ..you have to try different Settings with cycle-indie (see post 28 from eurusd) but i'm still testing...be carefull..sometimes the Spikes and 3ball appear and disappear again..feel free to correct me i'f i'm wrong but thats the way i interpret madmoneys way of trading..cheers mex {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file}
Thank you a lot !

I have tried myself yesterday on GJ ... and it seems this pair has a lot less noise regarding the cycles. Will (perhaps) post my screens, but don't want to clutter up this thread
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #6,563
  • Edited 4:38am Aug 21, 2014 2:14am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} {quote} nuf said... {image}
Dear litechild 3110 is possible only if it breaks 3155.I believe 3155 is 2014 support if it breaks it enters the area of Bearish territory but very strong support at 3115-3108. Now i have a target 3124 let us see. Thank you

Sorry, typo-I mean my short term target is 1.3224 and i am sure eu will complete!
unlearning is difficult than learning-that is the key!!
  • #6,564
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:41am Aug 21, 2014 2:41am
Quoting zarkon
1.32430-1.32420 i have a problem in 5m TF to be fixed.
This is where it found support. I went long at 3245. At first I thought the rub up was a Franky fake but London open has gone with it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,565
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:52am Aug 21, 2014 2:52am
Quoting mex2000
{quote} hello when i have two Spikes in the same direction (from the to different cycle windows) and a 3 ball, all at the same time, trend normaly changes (two red Spikes up= sell, two green Spikes down=buy) ..you have to try different Settings with cycle-indie (see post 28 from eurusd) but i'm still testing...be carefull..sometimes the Spikes and 3ball appear and disappear again..feel free to correct me i'f i'm wrong but thats the way i interpret madmoneys way of trading..cheers mex {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file} {file}
I think Madmoney traded it differently.

  1. 5 min spike
  2. 1 min opposite spike
  3. 1 min spike in direction of 5 min spike: entry

  • #6,566
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:53am Aug 21, 2014 2:53am
Initial jobless claims
  • #6,567
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:00am Aug 21, 2014 3:00am
This has been mentioned before by Eurusdd and others but it's worth reiterating.

When a previously completed transient zone is taken out, price always seems to return to the taken out zone before continuing on its way. Many times it happens very quickly and there is not room to make a profit but it's worth watching for those that are taken out by a considerable margin.

I've attached an example.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: return bar.png Size: 25 KB
  • #6,568
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:04am Aug 21, 2014 3:04am
I had my Eureka moment this morning before I went to bed. I woke up to test it and sure enough in it's vanilla version it looked to be about 92% accuracy. I added a filter and no stop loss and I discovered that if you martingale with this strategy in the right way, it looks like you can win (tested over 86640 bars). if you double up after every "loss" (meaning every time the target is not hit in the next x period), you will never need to double more than twice before you hit a winner. In other words... You can never lose more than 3 times in a row. Coincidence? I estimated the following:

Trade 1:
Win: 92%
Lose: 8%

Trade 2 (of the 8%):
Win: 86%
Loss: 14%

Trade 3 (of the 14% of the 8%):
Win: 100%
Loss: 0%


I will take a break, go exercise, perhaps yell a little bit, and come back to confirm the results.

So I DO think something very very good can come of this. There are a few 'issues' with the results currently, but not anything that I think cannot be solved (check other time frames, h values, other pairs, system check on # of trade opportunities, look at detailed entry). I don't think I have the same system as he does, but I think I've found something that works for me. I will probably go back to not be posting too much unless some people have general questions or when eurusdd comes back for the next lesson (: I'd rather not bug this informational thread with trade calls.

Notes:
1. You don't need high level math to understand the true proposal that is put out by eurusdd. I still don't really know what a markov process is.

2. If you're new the thread, came in mid way, or just feel a little stuck, start from the beginning (pg 286/287?). eurusdd shouts in bold for a good reason. Pay attention! If you learn nothing else, learn to do your research on the basic h and you will not be able to deny the fact that most prices chose to be h recurrent.

3. You cannot apply the concept effectively until you realize and understand the similarities/dissimilarities between what I call a left-side transient bar and a full transient bar. There is a critical reason why we assume that a left-side transient bar is a full transient bar and act as such in labeling other areas as recurrent. eurusdd has made no mistakes in labeling areas or answering questions.

4. As I've said before, some people have asked some really great questions. Sciurus's early posts in this thread in particular and eurusdd's response to them were printed out and taped to my wall (along with others).

5. I still need to work on k. I think it is the key to optimal entry, not the key to understanding how the concept works. There is a reason why it is not discussed much.

Nevertheless, this is still a hyper specific component of the market. I still haven't a clue on how to project levels like 1.3384 or being able to pinpoint a problem level. My knowledge of the original similarity thread is basically none. For those who can only make use of some of this lesson but can still better their trading by it, great! But I will be working endlessly to turn this 100% level into 100% trading.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #6,569
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:14am Aug 21, 2014 3:14am
Quoting hepsibah
This has been mentioned before by Eurusdd and others but it's worth reiterating. When a previously completed transient zone is taken out, price always seems to return to the taken out zone before continuing on its way. Many times it happens very quickly and there is not room to make a profit but it's worth watching for those that are taken out by a considerable margin. I've attached an example. {image}


Didn't realised until I look more closely that you are using my indicator I provided but changed the colors. Glad people are finding it useful :-)

I notice though you have the H values set to only 3, and thus TZs appear nearly 27% of the time.

EURUSDD said TZs should only appear around 3% of the time, like this ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 44 KB
*** Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars. ***
  • #6,570
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:21am Aug 21, 2014 3:21am
Quoting ephisi
we will surely get back to 74. ive decide not to buy the retracements anymore henceforth except inrangemarkets. I have observed the retrace can be so slow and annoying so better to short the main move

heavy rains here, my interenet connection went out while trading. we touched 74 as i predicted i would have shorted from there
  • #6,571
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:24am Aug 21, 2014 3:24am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} I think Madmoney traded it differently. 5 min spike 1 min opposite spike 1 min spike in direction of 5 min spike: entry
Is this a propper setup then?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Skærmbillede 2014-08-21 kl. 10.23.23.png Size: 55 KB
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #6,572
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:27am Aug 21, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Freefox
{quote} Didn't realised until I look more closely that you are using my indicator I provided but changed the colors. Glad people are finding it useful :-) I notice though you have the H values set to only 3, and thus TZs appear nearly 27% of the time. EURUSDD said TZs should only appear around 3% of the time, like this ... {image}
Hi freefox

Your indicator is invaluable - thank you so much.

If you read post 6363 and look at the example on post 6414, you will see why I am using a small h. It is because I expect them to be taken out and scalp accordingly.
  • #6,573
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:27am Aug 21, 2014 3:27am
Quoting LiquidGenius
I have the same system as he does, but I think I've found something that works for me. But I will be working endlessly to turn this 100% level into 100% trading.
Great work mate and same with me I don't believe anyone is trading or using what I am to get my levels but it still working that why this thread is so interesting!

All your hard work will pay off mate keep up the great work
  • #6,574
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:31am Aug 21, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Is this a propper setup then? {image}
Well, it's not how MM traded. Lose the 5 min chart. Now, on your 1 min chart, if you see a spike in the lower cycle indy (represents 5 min) wait for an opposite spike in the top cycle indy (represents 1 min) and then wait for a spike in the initial direction (still top indy) and enter.
  • #6,575
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:33am Aug 21, 2014 3:33am
Quoting LiquidGenius
I had my Eureka moment this morning before I went to bed.
Congratulations mate, I'm very happy for your success! Your efforts have paid off!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,576
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:34am Aug 21, 2014 3:34am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Hi freefox Your indicator is invaluable - thank you so much. If you read post 6363 and look at the example on post 6414, you will see why I am using a small h. It is because I expect them to be taken out and scalp accordingly.
Ok, thanks that makes sense :-)
*** Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars. ***
  • #6,577
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:38am Aug 21, 2014 3:38am
Quoting LiquidGenius
I had my Eureka moment this morning before I went to bed. I woke up to test it and sure enough in it's vanilla version it looked to be about 92% accuracy. I added a filter and no stop loss and I discovered that if you martingale with this strategy in the right way, it looks like you can win (tested over 86640 bars). if you double up after every "loss" (meaning every time the target is not hit in the next x period), you will never need to double more than twice before you hit a winner. In other words... You can never lose more than 3 times in a row....
congrats mate. welcome to the club
  • #6,578
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:40am Aug 21, 2014 3:40am
Quoting xxl205
{quote} Thank you a lot ! I have tried myself yesterday on GJ ... and it seems this pair has a lot less noise regarding the cycles. Will (perhaps) post my screens, but don't want to clutter up this thread
thank you xx..pls post your Screens, ist helpful for other peoples..also for me
  • #6,579
  • Aug 21, 2014 4:01am Aug 21, 2014 4:01am
If this system tames "the beast" that really will be something.
  • #6,580
  • Aug 21, 2014 4:01am Aug 21, 2014 4:01am
Well, I´ve finally got it. Huge thanks to Eurusdd and to the coders/traders kprsa, Freeforex, Hepsibah, Josh11 and Vlady and many more. Next question for me will be to make a qualified suggestion to where the price will go in the near future. I´ve been dealing with the concept of gaps and the tendency of price to retirn and fill the gaps. Eurusdd Points to a 2:nd degree problem at 1.3344. Looking closer at 19/8 15:33 M1 there´s a gap of 10/7 pips between 1.3344/1.3341 and 1.3334. What will determine the gravity Power of those gaps? Some relationship between range and volume? Probably - but then we don´t have the tickdata which in any case will be second hand quality tick data from our brokers, not the presumably more accurate tickdata from a dealer higher up in the chain, and we don´t have the true volume. We have to work with what we have and assume that there´s major gaps in the tickdata in that M1 Candle. Looking at the bigger Picture the next major level down is at 1.3110, a level that formed 6/9-13. Looking at my chart there´s a significant lower volume traded 6/9-13 than traded the last Days. Therefore, if volume during errors is important we should expect the price to correct the high volume errors Before reaching for the low volume areas.
And if 1.3344 is a 2:nd degree problem, what will will constutue a 1:degree problem?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU210814M1.gif Size: 236 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU210814D.gif Size: 241 KB


Regards

Waez

Quoting Eurusdd
Ok fellow traders. I got this important information that I would like to share with you. There is a serious mis-price formed at 1.3405. There is a 2nd degree problem at 1.3344. This points to the development of a new trend. So, I will urge bears to be careful. Today or by friday eurusd is heading in that direction for correction and maybe continuation!!! I am sorry for returning!
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