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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,221
  • Aug 20, 2014 9:01am Aug 20, 2014 9:01am
HI Mack,

Thanks for the heads up, I am following this pair as well, what do your acronyms means "ISL", "ISH" etc...

Will you be taking the short D right at the .786 of XA just above the the 1.272 expansion of BC??

Thanks!!
  • #10,222
  • Edited 9:59am Aug 20, 2014 9:47am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting fxyogi17
HI Mack, Thanks for the heads up, I am following this pair as well, what do your acronyms means "ISL", "ISH" etc... Will you be taking the short D right at the .786 of XA just above the the 1.272 expansion of BC?? Thanks!!
Its for my order flow analysis

ISL = Initial structure Low
ISH = Initial Structure High
NSL = New structure Low
NSH = New Structure High
HH = Higher High
LL = Lower Low
HL = Higher Low
LH = Lower High

I'll start from a swing, usually of great length in the recent past with a clear high and a clear low and label it with a ISL/ISH and go from there. I'll use HH,HL,LH,LL to guage the swing movements inside the main swing. I'll mark NSL and NSH once price has violated the confines of the main swing and depending on price movment/ length / and significants of that swing that may become the new main swing or an extension of the old main swing.

Sorry if thats confusing...

Usually I label the swings based on long term order flow to keep perspective.

GBPNZD Update: I zoomed in for a better look at PA

Bulls tested structure mutiple times. At first putting in HL's but that has recently changed and recent test have put in LL indicating that the Bears are gaining confidence in structure strenght. Bulls will have to pullback and regroup.

There is a Agg C (on the 3 min using med term order flow) to the Upside but I dont really like the Bearish strength. The projection in the last Bullish Long term swing is weak as well. I'm expecting a deeper pullback.... For now.

I was looking at the red arrow as a short. S/T Bulls had strength so I was going to wait for the retest. which put in a LH and a couple of rejections. But I missed it..... It was also against my bullish bias. Damn! should of taken it

Sorry for the messy chart. Just wanted to highlight the things I was looking at
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/dPTwn.png
  • #10,223
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:02am Aug 21, 2014 6:02am
Hey guys !
I have been waiting for the MR.pip live training... anybody knows something ?
  • #10,224
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:14am Aug 21, 2014 7:14am
Quoting samansadeghi
XAUUSDH1 crab {image}
Very good, thank you very much, is a great support for my decision-making.
I'm still learning and improving.
Greetings
  • #10,225
  • Aug 21, 2014 8:02am Aug 21, 2014 8:02am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Very good, thank you very much, is a great support for my decision-making. I'm still learning and improving. Greetings
tnx brour the best.I AM STILL LEARNING TOO.cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH4.png Size: 55 KB
THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #10,226
  • Edited 8:47am Aug 21, 2014 8:35am | Edited 8:47am
Very few things on my radar this morning...

I am watching this EURNZD AB=CD (in red).

Set Up: There is a small AB=CD which also lines up with a Cypher pattern which lines up with some structure. I would consider the structure to be weak to medium strength (Highlighted in black), It has held up in some areas and violated in others but it just above a RN which I do like.

Long term order flow is Bullish but price has recently failed to retest highs and established a Lower High. This has me worried alittle so I'll probable be looking for conservative targets.

Short term order flow. Bears still seem strong so I'll be looking for some weakness going into the kill zone. The recent S/T bullish swing is also weaqk compared to the previous. Not helpfull at all. The same goes with Price Action. Bar by Bar price looks like it wants to continue down. I'm looking for a deceleration in momentum and a few rejections but a weaker retest would be nice too.

The chart is on the 15 to display the big picture but my trading timeframe is the 3 min
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/B3Twn.png
  • #10,227
  • Edited 6:42pm Aug 21, 2014 4:42pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting Mack2013
Very few things on my radar this morning... I am watching this EURNZD AB=CD (in red). Set Up: There is a small AB=CD which also lines up with a Cypher pattern which lines up with some structure. I would consider the structure to be weak to medium strength (Highlighted in black), It has held up in some areas and violated in others but it just above a RN which I do like. Long term order flow is Bullish but price has recently failed to retest highs and established a Lower High. This has me worried alittle so I'll probable be looking for conservative...

EURNZD - Update

Psychology of a Losing Trade

Well I seen some convincing price action at the AB=CD/Cypher completion so I took it. I quickly regretted my decision but instead of selling I held on. I wrote what I was thinking at the time bar by bar.

If anybody has any comments, please don't hesitate to provide some input.

I notice when I'm listening to price there’s a tug of war of decisions and emotions. There was three basic concepts that I was struggling with;

1) Is price telling me to sell or is it fear?
2) Should I have confidence in my set up and trading plan or am I being stubborn and married to the position?
3) The set up is invalid. Do I play it out or do I cut my losses?

Set Up:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1012354_EURNZD_2014-08-21_07-47-31.png Size: 183 KB


Price Action: and what I was thinking at the time
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/FQTwn.png

I just got back... I'm reevaluating the position. It's obvious that the original set up is invalid but I have to listen to price and play the hand that I was dealt... Considering licking my wounds and cutting my losses.? What do you guys think?

Update 2: closed the postion at 1630 hrs PST / 1930 EST - 5 pip loss. Its better then -25.

Not the greatest of trades. I'm still learning. Even tho I got lucky this time. This is one of the reason I accumulate some descent size losses.

On review, I was right to be worried about the LH on the Long term Order Flow on the first post and I should of waited for a weaker retest. It would of saved me alot of trouble.
  • #10,228
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:17pm Aug 21, 2014 6:17pm
To sample from a 1to1 bearish. and reverse or rally, which also produces a 1to1.
We can thus take profits, a 1to1 on impulse,
and its recoil.
In turn, we have convergence of ratios, clear and obvious
This gives a chance to increase the odds of success.
It happens all the time.
Greetings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDM5otrodoble1to1.png Size: 38 KB
  • #10,229
  • Edited 10:43pm Aug 21, 2014 8:21pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting pampaq
To sample from a 1to1 bearish. and reverse or rally, which also produces a 1to1. We can thus take profits, a 1to1 on impulse, and its recoil. In turn, we have convergence of ratios, clear and obvious This gives a chance to increase the odds of success. It happens all the time. Greetings {image}
Nice trade. Just curious, but where was your entry? Did you enguage immediately after the double rejection and the second being bullish or the next swing low with the engulfing pattern and HL?
  • #10,230
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:20am Aug 22, 2014 1:20am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} EURNZD - Update Psychology of a Losing Trade Well I seen some convincing price action at the AB=CD/Cypher completion so I took it. I quickly regretted my decision but instead of selling I held on. I wrote what I was thinking at the time bar by bar. If anybody has any comments, please don't hesitate to provide some input. I notice when I'm listening to price there’s a tug of war of decisions and emotions. There was three basic concepts that I was struggling with; 1) Is price telling me to sell or is it fear? 2) Should I have confidence in...
hi Mack, I did not trade this. anyhow I had a look. so my 2 cents worth....if you zoom out on the chart their are 2 lows. I would wait (still be waiting in the moment) for those areas to enter trade (long). simply as my perception is that at current levels the risk reward is to high. additional my view on wave structure implies more downside even though the down trend seems to be losing steam. not sure if this helps you. good luck.
choose a job you love and you will never have to work a day in your life
  • #10,231
  • Aug 22, 2014 6:46am Aug 22, 2014 6:46am
Quoting ewgcorp
{quote} hi Mack, I did not trade this. anyhow I had a look. so my 2 cents worth....if you zoom out on the chart their are 2 lows. I would wait (still be waiting in the moment) for those areas to enter trade (long). simply as my perception is that at current levels the risk reward is to high. additional my view on wave structure implies more downside even though the down trend seems to be losing steam. not sure if this helps you. good luck.
Good morning,

Yeah, Your absolutely right about the risk vs reward. After review. I should of never been in it on that aspect alone. Thanks for your input.
  • #10,232
  • Aug 22, 2014 10:14am Aug 22, 2014 10:14am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Nice trade. Just curious, but where was your entry? Did you enguage immediately after the double rejection and the second being bullish or the next swing low with the engulfing pattern and HL?
Mmtum bearish, breakdown triangle, "Saman" 1to1 recoil.
Never closed above the previous pivot. or LH, which produces LL. Order flow, bearish confirmed.
Bearish candlestick pattern that envelops the previous., And confluence of ratios. We give an expectation that the price will fall.
Produce three bearish impulses, which are three 1to1.
We enter each 1to1, if the order flow allows, to 38% and 61%.
Summary fundamental control pivots reference to see when the trend weakens or strengthens, and patience to see, candlestick patterns, in places of decision within a trend.
The candlestick pattern, which simpler. indecision candles or confirmation or reversal.
The hardest, identify places of decision, for it is the 1to1, the confluence of ratios, and my operation, and again has been decisive, the YH and YL Open daily pivot point.
There in the direction of the dominant order flow, go with high probability of success.
Cheers and keep in touch, and learning
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,233
  • Aug 22, 2014 10:52am Aug 22, 2014 10:52am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Mmtum bearish, breakdown triangle, "Saman" 1to1 recoil. Never closed above the previous pivot. or LH, which produces LL. Order flow, bearish confirmed. Bearish candlestick pattern that envelops the previous., And confluence of ratios. We give an expectation that the price will fall. Produce three bearish impulses, which are three 1to1. We enter each 1to1, if the order flow allows, to 38% and 61%. Summary fundamental control pivots reference to see when the trend weakens or strengthens, and patience to see, candlestick patterns, in places...
Continuing with the above. In the DZ. see an abcd, and rejection and turnaround.
It's a matter of seeing trending 1to1 and 1to1 reverse. to enter, but candlestick patterns.
Greetings
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDM5encincomackdos.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDM5encincomackuna.png Size: 40 KB
  • #10,234
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:27am Aug 22, 2014 11:27am
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Continuing with the above. In the DZ. see an abcd, and rejection and turnaround. It's a matter of seeing trending 1to1 and 1to1 reverse. to enter, but candlestick patterns. Greetings {image} {image} {image}
Continuing with the above. In the DZ. see an abcd, and rejection and turnaround.
It's a matter of seeing trending 1to1 and 1to1 reverse. to enter, but candlestick patterns.
Greetings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDDaily.png Size: 45 KB
  • #10,235
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:31pm Aug 22, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Continuing with the above. In the DZ. see an abcd, and rejection and turnaround. It's a matter of seeing trending 1to1 and 1to1 reverse. to enter, but candlestick patterns. Greetings {image}
I'm looking at this 1 to 1 on the EURAUD. Just waiting for some weakness and a switch in order flow. Bears are still strong in a downward trending market. I most likely will pass tho just because its a late friday trade and I dont like to hold positions over the weekend.

I believe Draghi's scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium as well so (Keystone Luncheon speech @ 1130 pst).... Maybe provide the Demand needed to make a short term gain.

Right now , my expectations is for the 1.42 to be tested. unless we get a switch in order flow. I expect price to hang around here or try to break lower. Structure is decent but I need Bull participation. NO Entry Yet....

Set Up:
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/sLTwn.png

Price Action:
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/5YTwn.png
  • #10,236
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:38pm Aug 22, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting pampaq
{quote} Mmtum bearish, breakdown triangle, "Saman" 1to1 recoil. Never closed above the previous pivot. or LH, which produces LL. Order flow, bearish confirmed. Bearish candlestick pattern that envelops the previous., And confluence of ratios. We give an expectation that the price will fall. Produce three bearish impulses, which are three 1to1. We enter each 1to1, if the order flow allows, to 38% and 61%. Summary fundamental control pivots reference to see when the trend weakens or strengthens, and patience to see, candlestick patterns, in places...
Interesting... Nice explanation as well, thank you. You've given me some ideas that i might try to backtest this weekend. Good Play!
  • #10,237
  • Aug 25, 2014 2:36pm Aug 25, 2014 2:36pm
After one year of harmonic trading experience and no results I decided to give it another go. This time I would be following Mr Pip instructions relying on his trading experience .
However to succeed in this I will be needing some feedback from you guys, in order to understand this approach better.
so please tell me if I am doing something wrong.
here i am posting a possible abcd on gbp nzd h4, and obvios confluence of 127 extension with .886 XA
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  • #10,238
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:31am Aug 26, 2014 7:31am
Quoting hfaruk10
After one year of harmonic trading experience and no results I decided to give it another go. This time I would be following Mr Pip instructions relying on his trading experience . However to succeed in this I will be needing some feedback from you guys, in order to understand this approach better. so please tell me if I am doing something wrong. here i am posting a possible abcd on gbp nzd h4, and obvios confluence of 127 extension with .886 XA {image}
good morning hfaruk,

(GBPNZD) I kind of see a 3 drives pattern and gartley at the 1.99 , either way we are looking at the same reversal area. My old superviser wisely gave me some advice when dealing with office politics that I've used in other areas in my life. "There more then one way to skin a cat".

Any way, your set up is viable. So lets take a look at the other areas.

Structure: there is some structure in the area and a RN. I decreased the strength of the structure due to the violation. (FYI: I display weak - medium strength structure in Blue and Med Strong Structure in red.)

Order Flow: If you look at my cart , order flow is slighlty against us. Projection has increased and the bulls have increased in momentum in the recent up swing but price has stalled at 1.99 giving us hope in deceleration of price. The last bear swing had decreased momentum compared to previous. What does this mean? Be catious look for more weakness. more decelerationin price or a double top with a weaker retest would be nice.

Price Action: Price moved strongly in our kill zone and was initially rejected but the rejection was half of a bullish bar. The next bar took another quarter of the bull bar but price was seen as to cheap and had some rejection to the downside and closed bullish. The close met the last bar close, good sign. This tells me the Bulls are still there but the Bears are fighting for control . We will need more evidence to commit to this position.

Expectations: I can see 3 things happening

 

  1. Option 1: I'm expecting a shallow pullback due to the strength in the Bulls. They will need time to be consumed by the bears. This is why I'm expecting a double top. I will guage the strength of that double top and see weather or not I will take the trade.
  2. Option 2: Price stalls out. If it does, I would like to see some rejections to the high side or a strong bear bar in some bull weakness. If that makes sense. The second one might give you a crappy entry for price tho and decrease the Risk to Reward.
  3. Option 3: Price stalls then breaks out testing the highs. If price makes a NSH. I would be not take any trade short.


Because your on the 4 hr chart you have time to look for a nice entry. even if you miss the initial entry, price will likely give you a second opportunity with a LH swing in short term order flow. Patience is key.

It is okay to let a pattern/set up go if you dont like what you see. Consistancy is the goal. In time you'll be able to decypher the set up sucess and failures better. Learning is a on going process to being great.

http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/63gwn.png

  • #10,239
  • Aug 26, 2014 7:52am Aug 26, 2014 7:52am
A TP reached, somewhat delayed, however was always assured. It was 61% at the time placed.
Now we are in this trade, in the fight to break resistance 1H. shall see, of remaining rejected, we must leave quickly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH161%condemoras.png Size: 37 KB
  • #10,240
  • Aug 26, 2014 8:02am Aug 26, 2014 8:02am
Hey all,

Seeing some serious breakdown in price in EJ ending at RN with great response to fib ext
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aug 26 EJ.jpg Size: 124 KB

each swing the bears are dominating but if they fail to make a NSL and i see a short term NSH ill try to enter on HL
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