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The similarity system

  • #6,361
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:11am Aug 20, 2014 6:11am
Quoting handy148
Thanks - I tested TMA a while back. Didn't continue with it because different pairs needed different settings. I presume you are using a proper Triangular Moving Average and not the so called TMA True which is just a 56 LWMA with an ATR band around it.
it's not about the tool. It's how you use it.
  • #6,362
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:14am Aug 20, 2014 6:14am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Robertk
{quote} I couldnt have said more. Every time a winning streak occurs people go hallelujah, until a transition into a different LTF trend occurs. This does not have to be bad, but one needs to adjust to the market at that time. That's why I wonder how eurusdd handled these last positions of him, in order to know if he has filters that neutralize/benefit trend changes.
The drawdown was my concern and hence why I asked the question earlier in the thread about the best place to enter to avoid drawdown from entering too early.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #6,363
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:16am Aug 20, 2014 6:16am
Quoting Neio
Not sure if anyone else is seeing the same but we seemed to have passed through multiple transient levels without any real strong reversal.
Just thinking out loud here so bear with me.

The probability of a transient zone being a long term turning point is very low and the smaller h is, the lower this probability becomes. In other words, the probability of a transient zone with a low h (provided it is not within a TZ with a much larger h) being subsequently taken out is high. So instead of looking for the optimum h for long term turning points (low probability), why not assume that short term TZ's with small h are going to be taken out (high probability).

If this holds up, I think you could scalp two ways:

1. after the left hand side of a potential TZ has formed, scalp as soon as price breaks through that and invalidates the TZ (this seems to be what ephisi is doing very effectively)
2. if the TZ forms, scalp towards it once the left hand side of one in the opposite direction has formed

SL would a breakthrough of the zone in the other direction.

As I said, this is just thinking out loud at this stage but at least it would keep you on the right side of the major trend which would have saved some carnage over the last two days
  • #6,364
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:17am Aug 20, 2014 6:17am
yea, we need to give eurusd some time to close the door
Quoting feline207
eurusdd has said many times - the faster it runs away, the faster it has to go back to close the door. Well the door is opened since asia session and cold wind is coming through. EURUSD once again has no mercy over the small fishes!
  • #6,365
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:18am Aug 20, 2014 6:18am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} I couldnt have said more. Every time a winning streak occurs people go hallelujah, until a transition into a different LTF trend occurs. This does not have to be bad, but one needs to adjust to the market at that time. That's why I wonder how eurusdd handled these last positions of him, in order to know if he has filters that neutralize/benefit trend changes.
Good point. I think most average dudes/dudesses can trade in range. What goes down has to come back up eventually. You don't even have to worry too much where you have enetered the trade as long as it is in the middle somewhere--eventually you should pick up few pips. You don't need sophisticated Simplicity etc tools just some common sense.

However, indentifying the CHANGE from a RANGE to TREND is where majority fail. I am one of them for now. I think time to go back to my books...
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,366
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:20am Aug 20, 2014 6:20am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} If this holds up, I think you could scalp two ways:

1. after the left hand side of a potential TZ has formed, scalp as soon as price breaks through that and invalidates the TZ (this seems to be what ephisi is doing very effectively)

2. if the TZ forms, scalp towards it once the left hand side of one in the opposite direction has formed SL would a breakthrough of the zone in the other direction. As I said, this is just thinking out loud at this stage but at least it would keep you on the right side of the major trend which...
Like this. Hadn't thought of trading towards the TZ in a meaningful way until you described it like this. Possibly a eureka moment for me!
So thank you very much!

Edit: This then could be the approach to sort out Feline's issue of shooting through the TZ.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,367
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:20am Aug 20, 2014 6:20am
Spot on @ hepsibah. thats why i called this an art. it needs creativity. Adapt @eurusdds method to the prevailing circumstance and the $$$$$$$$ are sure

Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Just thinking out loud here so bear with me. The probability of a transient zone being a long term turning point is very low and the smaller h is, the lower this probability becomes. In other words, the probability of a transient zone with a low h (provided it is not within a TZ with a much larger h) being subsequently taken out is high. So instead of looking for the optimum h for long term turning points (low probability), why not assume that short term TZ's with small h are going to be taken out (high probability). If this holds up, I...
  • #6,368
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:23am Aug 20, 2014 6:23am
such is life vlady1974. we see life the market the way we are not the way the market it. what eurusdd has been able to do to us all is bring out differing perspectives that makes us think deeply. @eurusdd will make a good lecturer. im sure he is one
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Like this. Hadn't thought of trading towards the TZ in a meaningful way until you described it like this. Possibly a eureka moment for me! So thank you very much!
  • #6,369
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:26am Aug 20, 2014 6:26am
i strongly believe in eurusdds ability and im sure he has handled his trades well. im only 2weeks old in this how much more eurusdd who is d grand master
Quoting samaralala
{quote} Good point. I think most average dudes/dudesses can trade in range. What goes down has to come back up eventually. You don't even have to worry too much where you have enetered the trade as long as it is in the middle somewhere--eventually you should pick up few pips. You don't need sophisticated Simplicity etc tools just some common sense. However, indentifying the CHANGE from a RANGE to TREND is where majority fail. I am one of them for now. I think time to go back to my books...
  • #6,370
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:32am Aug 20, 2014 6:32am
According to Einstein, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result.

“Keep buying in a DOWNTREND” Therefore, I must be insane. My last day at this forum, tomorrow I am checking myself into…
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,371
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:32am Aug 20, 2014 6:32am
trust me. i am loving dis
Quoting handy148
Top and Bottm picking can be a dangerous game. No need to find the very top or the very bottom - plenty in between.
  • #6,372
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:34am Aug 20, 2014 6:34am
Quoting samaralala
According to Einstein, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result. “Keep buying in a DOWNTREND” Therefore, I must be insane. My last day at this forum, tomorrow I am checking myself into…
TWO OF US THERE !
  • #6,373
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:34am Aug 20, 2014 6:34am
Maybe, just maybe. if shes gonna go short i want her to move fast. more and easy pips you know
Quoting samaralala
{quote} MAYBE this is it 1.3275:-) {image}
  • #6,374
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:36am Aug 20, 2014 6:36am
Not a good spot to be. i killed my longs on eurusdds call below 1.33 and followed my strategy. it payed off. please state your positions, position size and risk lets see what i can advice

Quoting feline207
By what I was seeing that beast must have started shooting up long time ago.. Dont know how will I agonize before making radical decisions, but still i think 1.3315 at least must be hit before asia. If we don't see strong reversal at ny open, i will be seriously losing confidence. very tough day today...
  • #6,375
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:39am Aug 20, 2014 6:39am
Quoting ephisi
Not a good spot to be. i killed my longs on eurusdds call below 1.33 and followed my strategy. it payed off. please state your positions, position size and risk lets see what i can advice {quote}
Longs @ 78,79,81,92
Longs above 3300 stopped out (total -10x3) but lesson learned re the taking out of TZ. I've clearly not adapted it to my Bollinger Style yet because I've had all sorts of sell signals once below 3300. Should have closed the longs on retest and fail of 3304.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,376
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:41am Aug 20, 2014 6:41am
the usdollar is very strong right now. been watching bloomberg allday as i dont open any other charts other than eurusd. im very loyal. i believe the fomc will take us more down/ price is news and news is price.

Quoting handy148
Yes Ralome - FOMC can move markets in a big way sometimes.
  • #6,377
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:41am Aug 20, 2014 6:41am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Just thinking out loud here so bear with me. The probability of a transient zone being a long term turning point is very low and the smaller h is, the lower this probability becomes. In other words, the probability of a transient zone with a low h (provided it is not within a TZ with a much larger h) being subsequently taken out is high. So instead of looking for the optimum h for long term turning points (low probability), why not assume that short term TZ's with small h are going to be taken out (high probability). If this holds up, I...
Thanks Hepsibah,

The opportunity that Eurusdd highlighted is good I agree and we have to find a way to make it work for us.
The main problem being that in trending markets we are going to be scalping retraces.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #6,378
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:44am Aug 20, 2014 6:44am
[quote=ephisi;7686473]the usdollar is very strong right now. been watching bloomberg allday as i dont open any other charts other than eurusd. im very loyal. i believe the fomc will take us more down/ price is news and news is price. {quote}[/quote

2-year German auction bonds. 0% yield!! Not good .
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #6,379
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:45am Aug 20, 2014 6:45am
Quoting ephisi
the usdollar is very strong right now. been watching bloomberg allday as i dont open any other charts other than eurusd. im very loyal. i believe the fomc will take us more down/ price is news and news is price. {quote}[/quote 2-year German auction bonds. 0% yield!! Not good .
Wow!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #6,380
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:45am Aug 20, 2014 6:45am
are those your positions or felines. i learnt painfully in the past never to marry a trend or a range. a breakout against you when you expect range to continuw could be the most painful experience. EURUSD is trying to spike up a bit right now. it could go back above 1.3300. i dont know. so you can close as many in profit or breakeven or you can hold for reversal. but im sure we have a bearish breakout and i expect more down. if fomc takes this up tonite i will keep shorting from the top back to the bottom

Edit i meant to say you can close not cant. typing really fast bcos of managing trades

Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Longs @ 78,79,81,92 Longs above 3300 stopped out (total -10x3) but lesson learned re the taking out of TZ. I've clearly not adapted it to my Bollinger Style yet because I've had all sorts of sell signals once below 3300. Should have closed the longs on retest and fail of 3304.
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