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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,241
  • Aug 19, 2014 12:22pm Aug 19, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Yvon, If you check some of my earlier posts to Binnie and Nic I explained to them how I personally filter those trades to stop myself entering too early. That trade happened to me SO many times until I started looking closer at the pullback to the 21ema in 4hs in a lower time frame. Checking the pullback has made the right amount of waves back helped me a lot, it may be something you can find useful as well I know Phil Nel doesn't enter using 4hs as he always says he uses smaller time frames. If you see below in the 30 mins I got entry...
thanks JonnyPip,

you are right, sure if I get to a lower TF, the possibility of more Pips could be there. I I just go ,if needed, to the 1 hr chart, which in this case was in consolidation. rarely I go to lower than that.-but no doubt, 30 min gives more info that could draw a clearer trend.
thanks for commenting,
Yvon
  • #28,242
  • Aug 19, 2014 1:07pm Aug 19, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Great! Post the links when time allows you. Thanks
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=454186
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ctiveness.html
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...p-Part-II.aspx


The above has helped me to get a handle on JP and his counting.....

Looking for that 3rd wave (deepest/highest macd reading) should help to identify where you are in a move. (even help me not to lose)
  • #28,243
  • Aug 19, 2014 2:29pm Aug 19, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} I did that first trade, it was last Friday and yes it was on a Friday. But market decided to reverse and got killed there, which I don't know why. But the plus point is that after reading you chart, I felt encourage because I have analysed the chart the way you did. So I was not totally wrong in this case and market decided to turn against us. On your 2nd trade, you entered in the middle of a candle when it is still forming and after it went through the TL. Was there a pull back on a shorter TF. And you were sure that it was going to go...
nic,

" And you were sure that it was going to go further just because it was moving away from 21ema?"

it is because I know the longer TF, what should be coming, and I know there is still some down move to come and what should be their targets.that's why I got some more lots in the trade.
Yvon
  • #28,244
  • Aug 19, 2014 3:59pm Aug 19, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting JonnyPip
Did you catch the Aus/Nzd trade Binnie?
No mate - sitting waiting so long then the only entry trigger I got was 1am candle close - sound asleep like a wee baby by then. As it turned out , the RT on the Macd was a CT entry and so I think it was actually a winner for me in the end as I got a good sleep.
Still got my Bull Suit on here though and will watch for another break of that zone and hope for a nice TC to go long.

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My watch today is the Pound. I like the idea of price needing a major rest after such a huge run down. It must be tired by now. I know its a pretty fast SOUTHBOUND train and even though I would like to be onboard right now, I was at the wrong station. I want to wait for it to come back & pick me up but meantime, there might be some nice CT pips to be grabbed. Just my ideas.
Hey JP, can you walk us all through a pull back scenario to the 21 here using the H1 or M30 . Sooner or later, the Southbound train must resume so it will be nice to see what your expectation might be for a TC from the 21ma.

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  • #28,245
  • Aug 19, 2014 8:03pm Aug 19, 2014 8:03pm
Analysis on NZDUSD
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  • #28,246
  • Aug 19, 2014 9:19pm Aug 19, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting nic73
Analysis on NZDUSD {image}{image}
Impressive Nic - you have picked this up a lot faster than me buddy. Well done - watching with interest now mate. JP 's feedback will be good to see too.

I have held off an entry in the pound per my last post. I see Red News tonite so will stay away considering I was thinking about a CT back to the 21ma.
  • #28,247
  • Aug 20, 2014 2:28am Aug 20, 2014 2:28am
CT risky...

BRN support.
Trade back to 21 or more.
last low on macd was deep..giving divergence on next low.

(could be one more low but risking a CT back to 21 or more before the last push low)

Attempting to use the waves from JP posts..

ps..late for work again...i will be trading forex full time if it keeps making me late for my real job
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  • #28,248
  • Aug 20, 2014 5:42pm Aug 20, 2014 5:42pm
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GBP NZD H4

Let me work on my analyses and follow some of your advice
of looking at the bigger timeframe, too.

I've inserted a daily chart in the H4 and found the following:

1. Trend is up on D1 and 21EMA is above 89MA
2. H4 there prize bounce off 21EMA at the arrow.

Buy stop in place

Take profit just under the previous tops.
Approximately 76 pips up.
  • #28,249
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:53pm Aug 20, 2014 6:53pm
Good Morning from Asia. Did this trade on GBPUSD at around midnight here.

Noticed also on H1 chart, there was a formation of 123wave which gave me the confidence that the market is ready to move away from 21ema on H4 TF and for a early entry. Essentially, the BPM and the long spiked candle gave the hint for a high probability trade.

Currently about 40pips gained.
SL adjusted to BE
TP about 96pips

Please give me your comments. Jonny, value your advice. Thanks.

ps. 4h MACD system remains the main one for my trading and 123 wave is used as a filter only. Like Jonny mentioned, the 4h MACD system remains to be respected and the purpose of this forum.

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  • #28,250
  • Aug 20, 2014 8:52pm Aug 20, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=454186 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ctiveness.html http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...p-Part-II.aspx The above has helped me to get a handle on JP and his counting..... Looking for that 3rd wave (deepest/highest macd reading) should help to identify where you are in a move. (even help me not to lose)
Thanks Richard. Took me a few days and have gone through Jonny's posts and understood it quite thoroughly. Now I can start reading the links you have posted.

Have a great day.
  • #28,251
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:37am Aug 21, 2014 12:37am
Quoting LaGrangeD
{image} GBP NZD H4 Let me work on my analyses and follow some of your advice of looking at the bigger timeframe, too. I've inserted a daily chart in the H4 and found the following: 1. Trend is up on D1 and 21EMA is above 89MA 2. H4 there prize bounce off 21EMA at the arrow. Buy stop in place Take profit just under the previous tops. Approximately 76 pips up.
I like your charts and analysis but i have trouble following them looking at your chart alone...is it possible you can leave the price and TP.SP and entry marked on the charts.

I am just a simple man and this would help me to easier understand your thinking.

cheers
  • #28,252
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:50am Aug 21, 2014 12:50am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks Richard. Took me a few days and have gone through Jonny's posts and understood it quite thoroughly. Now I can start reading the links you have posted. Have a great day.

I took the CT and missed out on 60 pip profit by 7 pips as my TP was set at 1.6685... luckily i checked on my phone and closed it manually while it was on its way down and took 30 pip profit.

Remember moaning that you could not see the moves coming on the GBP..looks like you can see them now my friend You smashed it yesterday.

I don't know if its luck or what but reading up on JP's abc i have noticed that after the highes/deepest macd the trend continues into what would be wave 5.

So that would be the TC you took yesterday on the H4 system...just another filter to keep profits locked in.

I hope it makes sense and someone else can comment or I am just bananas cuckoo..!

(i used to think that the highest/deepest macd was the end of the trend and was always looking for divergence etc...but now i am seeing an easy opportunity to make pips)

over to anyone else to comment.
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  • #28,253
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:11am Aug 21, 2014 1:11am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} I took the CT and missed out on 60 pip profit by 7 pips as my TP was set at 1.6685... luckily i checked on my phone and closed it manually while it was on its way down and took 30 pip profit. Remember moaning that you could not see the moves coming on the GBP..looks like you can see them now my friend You smashed it yesterday. I don't know if its luck or what but reading up on JP's abc i have noticed that after the highes/deepest macd the trend continues into what would be wave 5. So that would be the TC you took yesterday on the H4 system...just...
I have not gone into anything beyond wave 3. Does the links you posted mention about wave 5? Not that I am in a hurry but I will read that a bit later.
  • #28,254
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:11am Aug 21, 2014 1:11am
Quoting binnie
{quote} No mate - sitting waiting so long then the only entry trigger I got was 1am candle close - sound asleep like a wee baby by then. As it turned out , the RT on the Macd was a CT entry and so I think it was actually a winner for me in the end as I got a good sleep. Still got my Bull Suit on here though and will watch for another break of that zone and hope for a nice TC to go long. {image} My watch today is the Pound. I like the idea of price needing a major rest after such a huge run down. It must be tired by now....

Sorry Binnie, i just read that i stole your analysis and made some pips...there i was congratulating myself that i had spotted the trade.

You must have put it into my mind like a subliminal message...You got any more for me. :nerd:
  • #28,255
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:11am Aug 21, 2014 2:11am
Quoting nic73
{quote} I have not gone into anything beyond wave 3. Does the links you posted mention about wave 5? Not that I am in a hurry but I will read that a bit later.
I haven't read up much more than the links i posted.

I need to study some more about what JP is saying and how it all fits into the system here with the deepest/highest macd being wave 3, which means you get one more chance for a TC before any change of trend...this is my basic understanding.

You seem to have understood what JP is saying, can you post another example of the abc...

I will try to find more info about macd and waves..if this helps to tune into the market rhythm well that is great..
  • #28,256
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:32am Aug 21, 2014 6:32am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} I haven't read up much more than the links i posted. I need to study some more about what JP is saying and how it all fits into the system here with the deepest/highest macd being wave 3, which means you get one more chance for a TC before any change of trend...this is my basic understanding. You seem to have understood what JP is saying, can you post another example of the abc... I will try to find more info about macd and waves..if this helps to tune into the market rhythm well that is great..
Good day Richard,

At the moment I have not spotted another example to post to you. But I have here AUDNZD that I was watching this afternoon and anticipating a pull back on both H1 and H4. But that did not quite happen thus the wave cycle was not complete. I have posted the charts explaining why I did not take the trade. (I would have entered if without knowledge of the 'abc wave' system).

I am very new to this and is testing out if I have fully understood it. I guess Jonny would be the best person to ask around here. If there is any inaccuracy on my analysis, please tell me. Anyone is welcome to submit their feedback.

Thanks
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  • #28,257
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:38am Aug 21, 2014 6:38am
Quoting nic73
Good Morning from Asia. Did this trade on GBPUSD at around midnight here. Noticed also on H1 chart, there was a formation of 123wave which gave me the confidence that the market is ready to move away from 21ema on H4 TF and for a early entry. Essentially, the BPM and the long spiked candle gave the hint for a high probability trade. Currently about 40pips gained. SL adjusted to BE TP about 96pips Please give me your comments. Jonny, value your advice. Thanks. ps. 4h MACD system remains the main one for my trading and 123 wave is used as a filter...
Hi Nic,

You traded it correctly although you labelled it wrong.

A good way to remember is wave a will be against the trend, wave b will be with the overall trend (which is why people jump in at this point), wave c against the trend (often stopping people out). Then the start of a so called wave d is the next leg down.

But as you can see you did actually nail the trade anyway!

Hope this helps
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  • #28,258
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:50am Aug 21, 2014 6:50am
Richard,

You commented about how the abc wave fit into the 4H MACD system. Actually, I stumbled upon this a day after I figured out the wave system. If you read and re-read Jonny's posts, he has explained it rather thorough. Here is how I have understood it:

1. You do your analysis as per 4H MACD.
2. On H4, when price is pulling back to 21ema you flip to H1. See if the price in H1 is moving from 21ema to the 89 OR 200sma (which normally does)
3. When the pull back to 21ema on H4 is complete, flip to H1 if price has moved to 89 or 200sma, the wave cycle is complete. (Post 28,256 is an example where the wave cycle is not yet complete so I did not take the trade).
4. If wave is complete, pull the entry trigger as this could be a high probability trade. But you must do your analysis as per 4H MACD. The 4H MACD is the main system, the wave system only help to filter out the bad trades.

I hope I am correct. Do tell me if I have misunderstood anything here.
  • #28,259
  • Aug 21, 2014 6:52am Aug 21, 2014 6:52am
Quoting JonnyPip
{quote} Hi Nic, You traded it correctly although you labelled it wrong. A good way to remember is wave a will be against the trend, wave b will be with the overall trend (which is why people jump in at this point), wave c against the trend (often stopping people out). Then the start of a so called wave d is the next leg down. But as you can see you did actually nail the trade anyway! Hope this helps {image}
OK. Really appreciate that you are reading my post and correcting me at the same time.
  • #28,260
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:00am Aug 21, 2014 7:00am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Good day Richard, At the moment I have not spotted another example to post to you. But I have here AUDNZD that I was watching this afternoon and anticipating a pull back on both H1 and H4. But that did not quite happen thus the wave cycle was not complete. I have posted the charts explaining why I did not take the trade. (I would have entered if without knowledge of the 'abc wave' system). I am very new to this and is testing out if I have fully understood it. I guess Jonny would be the best person to ask around here. If there is any inaccuracy...
With the Auz/Nzd I am looking at the same thing as you.

4h macd rules state, break of 21ema, pullback to 21ema, move to 89 sma.

Whilst this might seem set up in the 4h chart if you look at the 1h chart you will see you would be breaking the rules of market rhythm by buying here. Price has broken the 21ema in 1h, pulled back, so now we would assume it will move back to the 89sma before it will head higher.

Daily is set for long breakout so I am waiting for a pullback to the 89sma in the 1h before looking to buy in.
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