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The similarity system

  • #5,701
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:24am Aug 15, 2014 10:24am
Quoting tbird2121
{quote} I see .... but if you don't mind, any clue how do you do it ? but if it is a secret, it is ok ...
Do what? I did not calculate the success rate for identifying dissimilarity zones.

As for how I do it, EURUSDD suggested yesterday that we should not divulge the specifics of how we came about our conclusions. I will say that if a level is called out you should take note how price approaches the level and if it is broken or rejected with a certain type of volume in those areas.

Also, as I pointed out, price does NOT like to stay within the zones. Look for break outs or break ins as I call them.
  • #5,702
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:32am Aug 15, 2014 10:32am
Hi All,

Sorry I've not been in. I'm dealing with a server at work that's died.
I'm short 3400, SL at break even.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #5,703
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:32am Aug 15, 2014 10:32am
Quoting stt
{quote} Congrats!! very impressive.. I have a question though -- what is your objective in giving hints about your methods on the forum. i have to think you want people to learn something about your methods so you can have a group of like minded people who can then together improve these. but you seem to tease hints and then disappear so one would think you are participating in the forum only to show off (nothing wrong with that too imho). I think that is one reason some people on EURUSD threat starting going against you. would love to hear thoughts...
Thank you. You gave me the chance to explain myself.
In fact, do you know why I love vlady1974? f I met him or her, I would not mind showing him/her deeper stuffs. Why?
vlady1974 is one person who seem to understand what I stand for. He has never insulted me because I didn't show everything and he always seems to apply the little concept in a way which is equally impressive. My objectives are simple:

1: to force you people to question your beliefs about the market. For example, some of you believe the market is totally random, unbeatable etc.
By giving you solid hints, without a blueprint I am indirectly forcing you to look at the market differently.
Furthermore, I always said I will never let anyone know my blueprint: not even my father because that is my edge against the market. But I will give you a general idea of how i THINK. It is up to you to apply the concept too.


Furthermore, look at the explorer. I didn't even want to create one but I did just to silence some people. Then they shifted to real account. Lo. How many of them can do what I can do to a demo account?

Forex is an information game, that is why I have NEVER asked anyone here to give me the blueprint of their strategy and I will never give mine too.

I believe I have achieved my objective. Now there are many traders who believe they have an edge now..

That is PROGRESS. Whatever way they apply the similarity concept is all good. I do not want to know!!!


nice weekend.

I guess I have explained myself. Till we meet again!!!
  • #5,704
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:40am Aug 15, 2014 10:40am
'5' DS zone being attended to now. 3415 needs to be taken out though to fully resolve the problem. Observe PA reaction THERE. Multiple issues still to sort out @ '4s'...
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  • #5,705
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:48am Aug 15, 2014 10:48am
I think first we should take out recent top and then go down once again to 1.3342
  • #5,706
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:50am Aug 15, 2014 10:50am
Quoting vlady1974
Hi All, Sorry I've not been in. I'm dealing with a server at work that's died. I'm short 3400, SL at break even.
LOL... I keep getting stopped out. Clearly I'm not picking my stops very well.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #5,707
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:52am Aug 15, 2014 10:52am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} LOL... I keep getting stopped out. Clearly I'm not picking my stops very well.
What is the bottom of the zone you have as far as price?
  • #5,708
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:52am Aug 15, 2014 10:52am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Thank you. You gave me the chance to explain myself. In fact, do you know why I love vlady1974? f I met him or her, I would not mind showing him/her deeper stuffs. Why? vlady1974 is one person who seem to understand what I stand for. He has never insulted me because I didn't show everything and he always seems to apply the little concept in a way which is equally impressive. My objectives are simple: 1: to force you people to question your beliefs about the market. For example, some of you believe the market is totally random, unbeatable...
Thank you eurusdd. You have provided good to us. Hope your trading month went well! And you should come back more often to check on us
  • #5,709
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:19am Aug 15, 2014 11:19am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} What is the bottom of the zone you have as far as price?
The bottom for me is 3383, top part is 3404... but I'm sensitive of 3412. If that gets broken, then it's north to 3430.
There are good reasons to go to 3430 - for one, that's a 100 pip drop to 3330. But this is what the market needs to negotiate.

Like I said, the 300EMA and price is violent.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #5,710
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:22am Aug 15, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Thank you. You gave me the chance to explain myself. In fact, do you know why I love vlady1974? f I met him or her, I would not mind showing him/her deeper stuffs. Why? vlady1974 is one person who seem to understand what I stand for. He has never insulted me because I didn't show everything and he always seems to apply the little concept in a way which is equally impressive. My objectives are simple: 1: to force you people to question your beliefs about the market. For example, some of you believe the market is totally random, unbeatable...
Really appreciate the kind words Eurusdd. The concepts I learned last year was a big game changer for me so I really must thank you for the contribution you've made. Best of luck with your research and endeavours!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #5,711
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:49am Aug 15, 2014 11:49am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The bottom for me is 3383, top part is 3404... but I'm sensitive of 3412. If that gets broken, then it's north to 3430. There are good reasons to go to 3430 - for one, that's a 100 pip drop to 3330. But this is what the market needs to negotiate. Like I said, the 300EMA and price is violent.
I have 1.3397 as bottom and top as 1.3414, but that is because of 3 different dissimilarity zones overlapping. I have been measuring the strength of the move into the top zone by how far it penetrates into the zone and putting a simple 0 to 100% range calculation combined with volume.

Example: Bottom of zone is 1.3397 = 0%, mid range of zone is 1.3405 = 50 %, top of range is 1.3414 = 100%

I then take in consideration the length of the bar that penetrates into the range and how far % wise, where it closes; in the range, above or below, and always with volume.

As with the current situation we have 3 zones overlapping, that is not good for a continued rise in price. Lower prices look more favorable.

But the caveat; 300 ema just below in relatively close proximity. Very violent as you pointed out.
  • #5,712
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:03pm Aug 15, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} I have 1.3397 as bottom and top as 1.3414, but that is because of 3 different dissimilarity zones overlapping. I have been measuring the strength of the move into the top zone by how far it penetrates into the zone and putting a simple 0 to 100% range calculation combined with volume. Example: Bottom of zone is 1.3397 = 0%, mid range of zone is 1.3405 = 50 %, top of range is 1.3414 = 100% I then take in consideration the length of the bar that penetrates into the range and how far % wise, where it closes; in the range, above or below, and...
I've never thought to qualify the strength of the penetration into the zone! Ingenius! And by separating out the timeframes, the penetration 100% can actually act as retest levels anyway with the larger tfs being more significant as they've been proving on the 1H for me.

Edit: I think I see the bar that created your zone. My low for that is 3392.7
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #5,713
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:10pm Aug 15, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I've never thought to qualify the strength of the penetration into the zone! Ingenius! And by separating out the timeframes, the penetration 100% can actually act as retest levels anyway with the larger tfs being more significant as they've been proving on the 1H for me. Edit: I think I see the bar that created your zone. My low for that is 3392.7
Just thought of something, our zones might be slightly different because of broker feeds, so they could be different but not by much.
  • #5,714
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:23pm Aug 15, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Thank you. You gave me the chance to explain myself. In fact, do you know why I love vlady1974? f I met him or her, I would not mind showing him/her deeper stuffs. Why? vlady1974 is one person who seem to understand what I stand for. He has never insulted me because I didn't show everything and he always seems to apply the little concept in a way which is equally impressive. My objectives are simple: 1: to force you people to question your beliefs about the market. For example, some of you believe the market is totally random, unbeatable etc. By giving you solid hints, without a blueprint I am indirectly forcing you to look at the market differently. Furthermore, I always said I will never let anyone know my blueprint: not even my father because that is my edge against the market. But I will give you a general idea of how i THINK. It is up to you to apply the concept too. Furthermore, look at the explorer. I didn't even want to create one but I did just to silence some people. Then they shifted to real account. Lo. How many of them can do what I can do to a demo account? Forex is an information game, that is why I have NEVER asked anyone here to give me the blueprint of their strategy and I will never give mine too. I believe I have achieved my objective. Now there are many traders who believe they have an edge now.. That is PROGRESS. Whatever way they apply the similarity concept is all good. I do not want to know!!! nice weekend. I guess I have explained myself. Till we meet again!!!

These are the most sensible words i have read in this week , definitely. You are a great teacher! Eurusdd.
Deep thanks to you.
  • #5,715
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:40pm Aug 15, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} Thank you. You gave me the chance to explain myself. In fact, do you know why I love vlady1974? f I met him or her, I would not mind showing him/her deeper stuffs. Why? vlady1974 is one person who seem to understand what I stand for. He has never insulted me because I didn't show everything and he always seems to apply the little concept in a way which is equally impressive. My objectives are simple: 1: to force you people to question your beliefs about the market. For example, some of you believe the market is totally random, unbeatable...

Thanks for your answer.. I agree all your points. markets are not random (if they were, there wouldn't have been professionals whose job was to make money from markets). Now tools you need to make money dependent on your abilities - both TA and FA can work and most use combination of both.

In terms of market efficiency, my view is market is efficient for people who dont know any details (i.e. layman). but people who have more information than laymans are the one who make it efficient by capturing inefficiencies. Thats why agree with your point about not sharing your information/blueprint completely with anyone (perhaps ok to do with people you can trust and you are partnering with but again depends on your relationship).

have a great success in your research and trading.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #5,716
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:19pm Aug 15, 2014 2:19pm
I told you people I will leave you with something to think about while I am away till end of October. I am going to post a series of ideas that are used to calculate my probabilities and pick out problem bars.

Please do not post until I am done with my posts. Thank you.
  • #5,717
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:30pm Aug 15, 2014 2:30pm
1
Forex traders are basically dealing with stochastic processes.
Therefore, your success in this game depends on your understanding of stochastic processes, especially discrete ones. It is not necessary that you know these ideas in order to be successful but, if you want to see what people like me see, then you must understand what you are fighting against. Know thy enemy.

Now, since almost everyone on the planet believes, the path of currency prices are random, we shall follow them and use stochastic processes to model our probabilities.

In fact, we shall assume that any two bars on your chart are independent, that is the process has no memory. Even in this case, you can still beat the process.

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In the case of forex trading the random variable are the bars on your charts. The feature of the bar you are interested in gives the value of that random variable. So, if you are interested in the close values of the bars, then the process is defined by the closing prices of the bars.
  • #5,718
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:45pm Aug 15, 2014 2:45pm
Now that we assumed a random process, what is the best way to win on average? Well, there are many methods on the internet and yet most people struggle to be successful. Well, you don't have to be in that group anymore - if you change your focus.
There are basic features of every stochastic process that can help you get an edge against the process -even if you have no idea of the underlying factors that drive the process : (you are 100% a technical analyst).

It is clear that we are dealing with time-dependent processes, where the feature of the bars you are interested in define the value of the process at any given time.
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We can also define the relationship between consecutive bars. It is generally believed that there is no relationship. Let us assume this is true, even though that is not the truth.

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Hitting probabilities are very important. In fact, I have demonstrated that here many times. Once you are good at calculating hitting probabilities, you are one step ahead of the rest! You must have a fair idea of which numbers are likely to be hit within a given period.
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  • #5,719
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:56pm Aug 15, 2014 2:56pm
$1 million question
Since there are many different stochastic processes, which one is very simple and generally believed to represent forex rates?

Generally, since most people believe that the market has no memory - the past has no say in the present, technical analysis is nonsense - we will follow them and assume we are dealing with
  • #5,720
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:57pm Aug 15, 2014 2:57pm
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