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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,821
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting samansadeghi
gold {image}
CLOSED +4 pips
and sell
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #1,822
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:37pm Aug 12, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi T indicator automatically shows pairs news if none relevant it does not. RSI color is just rectangles .Nothing fancy You should upload my template with WR% on it {file}
Thanks Davit !
  • #1,823
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:43pm Aug 12, 2014 1:43pm
A simple long-term (buy and hold for several weeks) swing method that seems to work particularly well for EUR/USD weekly charts. Buy/Sell at Bollenger bands (20/2) using 34 EMA as pivot.

EUR/USD weekly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,824
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:33pm Aug 12, 2014 2:33pm
USDCHFH4
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #1,825
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:37pm Aug 14, 2014 2:37pm
USDJPYH1
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #1,826
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:59am Aug 15, 2014 1:59am
Quoting samansadeghi
USDJPYH1 {image}
Have 6 shorts on UJ at 102.50 area
Thinking along the same lines

Sorry for delay post.Have been very busy on my system thread
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,827
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:29am Aug 15, 2014 2:29am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Have 6 shorts on UJ at 102.50 area Thinking along the same lines Sorry for delay post.Have been very busy on my system thread Regards
Dav, are you sure about short?!
Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day.
  • #1,828
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:34am Aug 15, 2014 2:34am
Quoting Machinator
{quote} Dav, are you sure about short?!
Its based on my system but can't say sure thing.Its just another trade.If wrong I will exit.
USD has been overplayed and I think GU EU JPY are poised to rebound
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,829
  • Aug 15, 2014 3:09am Aug 15, 2014 3:09am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Its based on my system but can't say sure thing.Its just another trade.If wrong I will exit. USD has been overplayed and I think GU EU JPY are poised to rebound REgards
Dav,I asked before to compare the charts.
I checked the charts.White one is Fxopen real which I use ,chart with your template is Icmarket demo.The difference is really serious and confusing.Just have a look.
I chech dukascopy data I trust there wasn't this spike at the begining of the day.

Thanks!
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Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day.
  • #1,830
  • Aug 15, 2014 3:22am Aug 15, 2014 3:22am
Quoting Machinator
{quote} Dav,I asked before to compare the charts. I checked the charts.White one is Fxopen real which I use ,chart with your template is Icmarket demo.The difference is really serious and confusing.Just have a look. I chech dukascopy data I trust there wasn't this spike at the begining of the day. Thanks! {image}
Weird.Your broker probably is running internal software to trigger spikes.
I have both Oanda and MBtrading live accounts and so far I found 3 big spikes this year on Oanda but not present on MBtrading.
This suggests internal manipulation.
I trade without hard stops to avoid the bullshit
No spikes on my accounts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,831
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:29am Aug 15, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Machinator
{quote} Dav, are you sure about short?!
in profit already
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,832
  • Aug 15, 2014 3:09pm Aug 15, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} in profit already

It was a nice day and nice week as well,Dav!
Have a nice weekend and take care!
Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day.
  • #1,833
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:40pm Aug 16, 2014 2:40pm
AUDCADH4
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #1,834
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:46pm Aug 16, 2014 2:46pm
NZDJPYH1
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #1,835
  • Aug 17, 2014 1:24pm Aug 17, 2014 1:24pm
Hey Davit, how are you doing... posted on my thread but then I remembered yours as well. Working on R. van der Weydens "Portrait of a woman with a winged bonnet" to sharpen my skills in Flemish technique and hope to learn few more tricks. This is 1st layer, doodverf (dead layer)... more to come. Not perfect, but good foundation for subsequent layers.
Attached Image
"A handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains"
  • #1,836
  • Aug 20, 2014 6:47am Aug 20, 2014 6:47am
USD Index is overbought. Yen, Euro, Kiwi oversold. Already long Pound which turned after MPC Bank Rate votes put interest rate hikes back on the table followed by best CPI since last December. Still holding short Kiwi with 0.875 and 0.835 targets but with complete exit stop at 0.841. Will short USD after FOMC release this afternoon (or sooner if sell-off begins prematurely).

Best daily technical for shorting is USD/JPY sitting at 23.6% Fibonacci and RSI resistance.

USD/JPY daily

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,837
  • Aug 20, 2014 10:02pm Aug 20, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting KADC
USD Index is overbought. Yen, Euro, Kiwi oversold. Already long Pound which turned after MPC Bank Rate votes put interest rate hikes back on the table followed by best CPI since last December. Still holding short Kiwi with 0.875 and 0.835 targets but with complete exit stop at 0.841. Will short USD after FOMC release this afternoon (or sooner if sell-off begins prematurely). Best daily technical for shorting is USD/JPY sitting at 23.6% Fibonacci and RSI resistance.
Well, the reversal obviously never happened. I'd re-entered my Kiwi short as a hedge which earned me triple what my USD shorts lost me so at least the day ended in green.

USD Index is now oversold and approaching 10,660 which is the 23.6% Fibonacci on the daily and 10,700 which is the 23.6% of the weekly. That's a confluence I'm going to bank on for the reversal.

Immediately though, AUD/USD hit the monthly low which coincides with a 61.8% extension of yesterday's initial move down and NZD/USD hit the 61.8% of the full range from the February low which is also the range for the year, 27.2% extension of yesterday's drop and just shy of the 61.8% of last week's move up.


USD Index weekly chart

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,838
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:49am Sep 2, 2014 4:49am
We did get a reaction at 10,660 last week (also a sell using Davit's system if I understand it correctly), but starting at 9:00 p.m. EST yesterday (Beijing open) U.S. dollar started moving higher against all currencies, ignoring all fundamentals (positive Aussie, Yen, and Pound economic data) so someone was determined to push US$ up regardless, but I'm hopeful for a proper pullback or reversal at 10,725 (10,710 on NetDania charts).

I'm betting that easing has now been priced into the Euro and the ECB announcement Thursday will see this historic seven week drop in EUR/USD receive the bounce it's so very much overdue for.

US Dollar Index - weekly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,839
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:12am Sep 2, 2014 5:12am
Quoting KADC
We did get a reaction at 10,660 last week (also a sell using Davit's system if I understand it correctly), but starting at 9:00 p.m. EST yesterday (Beijing open) U.S. dollar started moving higher against all currencies, ignoring all fundamentals (positive Aussie, Yen, and Pound economic data) so someone was determined to push US$ up regardless, but I'm hopeful for a proper pullback or reversal at 10,725 (10,710 on NetDania charts). I'm betting that easing has now been priced into the Euro and the ECB announcement Thursday will see this historic...
Good morning KADC, Tried to reply to this before but FF is having brain farts I guess. No doubt someone is pushing the dollar hard. I have a similar weekly view on the USDX chart. Makes you wonder ... no?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,840
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:57am Sep 2, 2014 5:57am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Good morning KADC, Tried to reply to this before but FF is having brain farts I guess. No doubt someone is pushing the dollar hard. I have a similar weekly view on the USDX chart. Makes you wonder ... no?
I can understand China or Japan wanting to push USD higher. It's irksome, but it's understandable, and it least it's a constant pressure which gives the average trader time to react; unlike gold for example, where several of the drops in the past few weeks has been a huge dumps that take place in but a single market tick.

As years go by, I'm finding I really prefer the "reality" based trading of non-US pairs that tend to react to one another with some degree of respect to the technicals and fundamentals. Stellar Aussie MoM building approvals at 9:30 p.m. EST a few hours ago caused corresponding rise in AUD/NZD, whereas AUD/USD dropped like a stone for no sensible reason whatsoever. It's frustrating to play a game where the major players simply ignore the rules.

At least it beats having a regular day job.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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