IMHO, AUDUSD likely to re-test 0.9330 and then reverse to 0.9280. Currently, MACD supports the up-move. {image}
Keep calm and go GREEN...
- #83,861
- Aug 14, 2014 8:50am Aug 14, 2014 8:50am
- #83,863
- Aug 14, 2014 9:59am Aug 14, 2014 9:59am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #83,865
- Aug 14, 2014 10:14am Aug 14, 2014 10:14am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #83,866
- Aug 14, 2014 10:20am Aug 14, 2014 10:20am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
f(z)=z2+c
- #83,867
- Aug 14, 2014 10:21am Aug 14, 2014 10:21am
{quote} Well hey man, you just had your chance... You just had to be really really really quick about it.
well based on H4 chart, there is still space that Aussie will visit there before travelling north again...Set my pending LONG, pick me up on Monday will ya
.
Keep calm and go GREEN...
{quote} Many here have that stance on SL, and it works well for them. I've dabbled with it, but it just doesn't seem to compute with my already preconceived notion of MM from the "normal" stock market. You just have to know when to let them go with your point of view...which for myself is hard. (thus why I use stops religiously). I imagine a lot of that comes with getting the "feel" for your pair too.. A good case of this is a trader by the name xandi that used to trade here. Has a red flag. People praised and praised him while I kept warning him...
I don't double. I slowly build into....
My "prediction" currently on AU is a dip back to at least the 280s, possibly lower. No huge interest in fresh short positions unless we see the 9420s...
This view is dynamic according to how the market moves, so, I could change my opinion, but, based on what I see now, I'm flat, happy, and if I don't place another trade 'til next week, that's fine by me. Regardless, money management and risk management are key elements. If I screw those up, I deserve what's coming....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #83,869
- Aug 14, 2014 10:42am Aug 14, 2014 10:42am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} Ok cool... I don't use stop losses just to avoid situations like that. (Even though I look like a newbie because of an account here new as of april, I've been at this market since about '03...) IMO - stop losses tell your broker when you're scared out of the market - why give them that intelligence so easily? Margin use at 6% or less makes it REAL hard for you to experience a margin call. Proof? As you have open trades, run a quick calculation: Free Margin / pip value = number of pips to a margin call ...the result has caused me to adopt...
.So Va by your statement does that mean you generally don't close in a loss or you just use a mental stop? I have being thinking lately of hedging (I'm in Aus. so still allowed) positions that disappear into the red too far, also hedging works great for possible margin calls I have recently learnt (on a "fun" account I mess with on high leverage).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #83,870
- Aug 14, 2014 10:47am Aug 14, 2014 10:47am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
Btw I am still on my daily swing trade from .9264 and aiming for new 2014 HH's
PS. SL: 0.9242 held and now B.E.+2
PS. SL: 0.9242 held and now B.E.+2
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #83,871
- Aug 14, 2014 10:48am Aug 14, 2014 10:48am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} Hey fella's. If I can jump in on this one too. Up to date I have being using SL's and basing my systems on this MM. I learnt my lesson (fear?) from the onset of my trading career. I was scalping in 09 and making pretty good pipage. My MM (small lots) wasn't too bad looking back on it. I opened a position less than 5 pips of that years HH and watched my account wither away. I knew nothing at that stage but it was an interesting lesson and luckily was smart enough not to use the lifes savings for my 1st account
I'd say you are in an optimal position to employ Va's strategy. Being able to run both a short and long at the same time, while being able to close in whatever order you wish is an EXTREMELY powerful MM tool. You can literally never close in a loss if you employ even a basic understanding of MM.
{quote} Hey fella's. If I can jump in on this one too. Up to date I have being using SL's and basing my systems on this MM. I learnt my lesson (fear?) from the onset of my trading career. I was scalping in 09 and making pretty good pipage. My MM (small lots) wasn't too bad looking back on it. I opened a position less than 5 pips of that years HH and watched my account wither away. I knew nothing at that stage but it was an interesting lesson and luckily was smart enough not to use the lifes savings for my 1st account
There are quite a few here who think that the dollar amount in their trading account is what will dictate their rate of success, but, if they don't know what they're doing, they're asking for bigger trouble is all because of the bigger dollar figures. I restarted trading knowing that the money wouldn't be worth the effort, and that has been true - I could've started waiting tables when I restarted trading live and done better. However, I'm not here for the 3 months I've been back at it.
I've given this market a lot of money doing things that everybody else thinks work. My history is crazy with this market - back in 03 I actually hired someone to manage profits for my company, so, between salary and the money lost trading I can say with confidence I've handed this market $200K when all has been said and done. But I've stuck with it. I've done my time studying and developing my system and it's now time to come get it back. So, while some of you talk about revenge trading, oh puhhhleez....
I'm constantly aware of how many pips away a margin call is and I try to keep that distance at least 2000 pips. It's easier done than it sounds too. That's been an epiphany for me. The need for a stop loss with appropriate margin use and knowing where extreme bottoms/tops/and the start of those ranges helps SO much with entry....
Above all else though - P A T I E N C E
Even after seeing so many trades develop into winners it buffalos me the number of traders who think because they opened a trade that in an hour it'll be the winner you expect...not the case...
I hope this answers your question Matt...feel free to message if you'd like...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #83,873
- Aug 14, 2014 11:05am Aug 14, 2014 11:05am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #83,874
- Aug 14, 2014 11:07am Aug 14, 2014 11:07am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
Back on topic, here's my view.
Trade still on track, nothing but HH and HL right in line with the "channel" (two yellow lines) by evidence of the Daily chart shown.
However;
We may see a pull back to about the mofu below the 23.6 area (don't pay attention to the word mofu, that's misnamed) because of the 4hr bearish harmonic that appeared- the RSI doesnt agree yet though. Remember, Daily > 4h, so I'm still expecting North even from a pull back, I may even tack on another long. Unfortunately my stop is right on the line of where I expect a pullback.... so if it gets hit, oh well- still will have profit
Trade still on track, nothing but HH and HL right in line with the "channel" (two yellow lines) by evidence of the Daily chart shown.
However;
We may see a pull back to about the mofu below the 23.6 area (don't pay attention to the word mofu, that's misnamed) because of the 4hr bearish harmonic that appeared- the RSI doesnt agree yet though. Remember, Daily > 4h, so I'm still expecting North even from a pull back, I may even tack on another long. Unfortunately my stop is right on the line of where I expect a pullback.... so if it gets hit, oh well- still will have profit
- #83,875
- Aug 14, 2014 11:18am Aug 14, 2014 11:18am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} Protection of principal is key to good money management. At this point, I'm not risking any of my initial capital on trades I take. That has taken about 3 months to do, and it's not a large account. It's bigger than some I've seen and smaller than some I've seen too. There are quite a few here who think that the dollar amount in their trading account is what will dictate their rate of success, but, if they don't know what they're doing, they're asking for bigger trouble is all because of the bigger dollar figures. I restarted trading knowing...
Yes the amount of my trades I see come back into profit after I hit a SL is becoming a real head-scratcher. I was roughly looking over the previous months losses and I couldn't find one trade that didn't come back to profit within a short range and many to original TP. It's just got me thinking. However Just one trade gone wrong could upset the balance. Interesting idea on the distance from margin call.
I am pretty happy with profits this year to date but it has given me a bit to think about cheers.
GL with it on this round,
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
{quote} Cheers mate
Greedy pips sink ships...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
- #83,877
- Aug 14, 2014 11:32am Aug 14, 2014 11:32am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} Greedy pips sink ships...
Should hit the 200 ma from here imo (though not discounting a minor pullback beforehand). Also interestingly a 4hr H&S shoulder (light blue TL) ended up forming after all (ref to earlier posts).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #83,880
- Aug 14, 2014 8:22pm Aug 14, 2014 8:22pm
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts
