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AUD/USD

  • #83,781
  • Aug 12, 2014 8:53pm Aug 12, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I kept yesterdays long open. I was getting distracted by the st H&S and forgot the real objective of the trade which is the quoted chart. It is still valid though Gold, Silver and NU (charts watching atm) are beginning to look bearish in the s-mt.

Yeah… meanwhile AU is looking strongest of em all. Perhaps we will get another dip down by tomorrow.. not really sure. Will just scalp for now until a bigger swing opportunity presents itself. I think EU will probably show me a nice swing opportunity below 1.3 ..
  • #83,782
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:00pm Aug 12, 2014 9:00pm
Gold is going down..so will Aussie...?
  • #83,783
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:47pm Aug 12, 2014 9:47pm
A move higher looks likely... short term

3.30pm countdown
One Good Trade.
  • #83,784
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:21pm Aug 12, 2014 10:21pm
woke up this morning to see my 0.9285 short triggered,
now to wait for the Chinese news
  • #83,785
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:25pm Aug 12, 2014 10:25pm
Quoting Nif90
woke up this morning to see my 0.9285 short triggered, now to wait for the Chinese news
Short with tp...9200?
  • #83,786
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:40pm Aug 12, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting Barca
{quote} Short with tp...9200?
no
tp1 at 9260, tp2 9220

sl at .9290
  • #83,787
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:47pm Aug 12, 2014 10:47pm
This move on aud/nzd is likely to fail, at least in the short term… not looking for anything crazy out of it myself just a good few pips… 1.1005 should get retouched in coming hours for a nice lil scalpy scalpy
  • #83,788
  • Edited Aug 13, 2014 12:05am Aug 12, 2014 11:13pm | Edited Aug 13, 2014 12:05am
Wages declining and missing estimates how many months in a row but 1200 muppets polled indicating that consumer sentiment is up. Everyone is ready to purchase more with their shrinking wages...... Hmmmm

Wages are a leading indicator of consumer inflation which all points to future rate cut. Aussie whopping 20 pip run up is kind of cute. If Chinese print misses by even .1% expect 92.5 and ranging again. Also I think a bit of Yen weakness today has helped push AJ which may also be leading AU up a bit as well

IMO, risk is on the downside and the bears are knocking on the door waiting for the next catalyst to take out 9220

Seems to me Aussie will be capped on the upside with the perception that any rate movement for 2015 will be US up and/or AU down. The writing is on the wall

Safe trading all
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #83,789
  • Aug 12, 2014 11:24pm Aug 12, 2014 11:24pm
Anyone trading CAD/JPY..? Any advice for this pair?
  • #83,790
  • Aug 12, 2014 11:34pm Aug 12, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting Barca
Anyone trading CAD/JPY..? Any advice for this pair?
Could be inverse H&S. It looks bull at the moment but if 93.68 is not broken...
4H looks like it is preparing to break to the upside.
  • #83,791
  • Aug 12, 2014 11:38pm Aug 12, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting stulittle11
{quote} Could be inverse H&S. It looks bull at the moment but if 93.68 is not broken... 4H looks like it is preparing to break to the upside.
Thank you
  • #83,792
  • Aug 12, 2014 11:56pm Aug 12, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting Expo33
Wages declining and missing estimates how many months in a row but 1200 muppets polled indicating that consumer sentiment is up. Everyone is ready to purchase more with their shrinking wages...... Hmmmm Wages are a leading indicator of consumer inflation which all points to future rate cut. Aussie whopping 20 pip run up is kind of cute. If Chinese print misses by even .1% expect 92.5 and ranging again. Also I think a bit of Yen weakness today has helped push AJ which may also be leading AU up a bit as well IMO, risk is on the downside and the bears...
I don't know if the gang of 1200 is a muppet or you are a muppet. after the australian unemployment data it has barely moved suggesting that a short squeeze is in the making if data from aussie and china comes good henceforth. 9600 should come in any way by end of this year. rate cut what rate cut??? why will you do a rate cut based on the mining boom which is busted but hasen't it be priced in since the past 2 years. based on unemployment data whose measuring parameters are changed recently.
  • #83,793
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:28am Aug 13, 2014 12:28am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I don't know if the gang of 1200 is a muppet or you are a muppet. after the australian unemployment data it has barely moved suggesting that a short squeeze is in the making if data from aussie and china comes good henceforth. 9600 should come in any way by end of this year. rate cut what rate cut??? why will you do a rate cut based on the mining boom which is busted but hasen't it be priced in since the past 2 years. based on unemployment data whose measuring parameters are changed recently.
Awesome, my first rude reply on FF. I am honored to be the recipient from an ignore list favorite. I said "perceived" rate cut. And I am assuming by "barely" moved you mean the 100 pip drop for a pair that has a fairly small ADR, not to mention the 100 pip geopolical risk drop the week previous.

96? Wow, good luck with that. I am assuming you were in the 97 here comes parity camp a couple of months ago.

My point about rates was that looking out say to the end of 2015, IMO, the RBA will either leaves rates alone or cut and the FED will either leave alone or raise.

Anyways, no need to rumble, just here to share and learn
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #83,794
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:30am Aug 13, 2014 12:30am
China Industrial Production (YoY) meets expectations (9%) in July
China Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) below forecasts (17.4%) in July: Actual (17%)
China Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 12.2%, below expectations (12.4%) in July
  • #83,795
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:35am Aug 13, 2014 12:35am
Scalps are happening.
  • #83,796
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:43am Aug 13, 2014 12:43am
Quoting Nif90
{quote} no tp1 at 9260, tp2 9220 sl at .9290
slight miss, we might see it range sideways
sl adjusted to breakeven
we might need to wait for US retail sales for a larger movement.
  • #83,797
  • Aug 13, 2014 1:50am Aug 13, 2014 1:50am
w00t!!!
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  • #83,798
  • Aug 13, 2014 1:52am Aug 13, 2014 1:52am
And yeah I know... it looks like it's good for another 30 pips yet... maybe even 50. But I'll happily bank the 45
  • #83,799
  • Aug 13, 2014 2:15am Aug 13, 2014 2:15am
AUDUSD likely to face strong resistance at 0.9300 area, 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Would prefer holding short for a downside target of 0.9200, 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA, while maintaining stop-loss above 0.9315.
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  • #83,800
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:05am Aug 13, 2014 3:05am
Quoting HareshBM
AUDUSD likely to face strong resistance at 0.9300 area, 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Would prefer holding short for a downside target of 0.9200, 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA, while maintaining stop-loss above 0.9315. {image}
Question on that... That fib level is a downside retrace. My understanding is that it wouldn't have importance as we are approaching from below. Am I wrong on that?

Personally, I think that 9300 will prove difficult because:

1. Big round number
2. Lack of AUD news events to push it around
3. August can be pretty slow IIRC
4. Last week has an O-H range of IIRC 64 pips. 64 pips from the low puts it at 9302

Having said all that.... We had major support at 9330 and might want to take another look from the downside.

Drop down to the hourly chart and check out how quickly we left 9350 when the bad jobs print happened. We are bound to come back to that spot at some stage and you'd think there would be a few unfilled orders there still.
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