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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #131,781
  • Aug 11, 2014 9:55am Aug 11, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Ivanyo
Hi guys, I've got another question - do you guys trade the more exotic pairs where the spread is usually a bit higher? Thanks for any help in advanced. Cheers
For sure Ivan, the more the merrier. Especially on the higher timeframes like daily/weekly. Spread is very rarely an issue

I watch about 80+ FX pairs on daily/weekly, bout half that on the 4hr and lower and some 3000 stocks on the weekly charts

Best
Mike
  • #131,782
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:10pm Aug 11, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting doerpn
Hi to all of you trading indices, I think Mike too. What about DAX 30 (Ger30)?. It`s at a very big Round Nomber (9000). {image}
Hi all,
would appreciate your opinions....
I took the fake-out-bar on DAX30(a little bit late, I know) and now I set SL to BE.
Like to be sure where the FTA is waiting.
Thanks a lot.
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Have a nice day
  • #131,783
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:26pm Aug 11, 2014 12:26pm
great setup at great place.
as for me wedge is now formed, nobody knows, with the trend or against him
so sell limit after setup "rails" in the upper resistance of wedge
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  • #131,784
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:48pm Aug 11, 2014 3:48pm
Thanks Magestic and Mike for you response re. exotic pairs.

Got another one for you guys

USDCZK daily chart - I've seen a couple of times in this thread, people posting trades against the trend and that trading against the trend is fine. What goes into determining whether or not to pass on setups like this, where there is a clear trend but the pin bar has formed in the opposite direction?

Thanks for your help.
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  • #131,785
  • Edited Aug 12, 2014 12:11am Aug 11, 2014 8:52pm | Edited Aug 12, 2014 12:11am
Quoting MushyPeas
Thanks for the explanation Lester - That was just what I was looking for. Very good teaching. Also, to Mike, that is a super video you've made there. Many thanks for your efforts. By the way, I have just purchased 'Forex Tester 2' software. It only cost me less that $US100, so I felt that I had nothing to lose by giving it a try. Trading years worth of data, in a fraction of the time, as you can speed up the time-frames as and when you want to. You can also try out different strategies and perfect your trade management skills, without risking precious...
Hi MushyPeas. I wrote a lengthy post a few pages back on this thread which was well received about backtesting. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post7644451

To answer your question about "ah-ha" moments, I have definitely experienced a few. Just to take a few steps back, I want to say that trading is an incredibly personal experience. I know that sounds a bit wanky and almost esoteric but hear me out.

When I started many many years ago, I used to not even be able to trust myself with tech analysis. I used to visit several websites daily and would copy S/R levels and TL's. If I spotted a trade, I'd visit many forum threads to try and work out whether anyone agreed with my TA before I'd take a trade. I experienced real analysis paralysis and frustration and confusion. It was only after I read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Lefevre and Pitbull by Martin Schwarz that I realised I needed to work out a strategy which fit my personality.

There are several "guru threads" all over the internet about their "holy grails". My issue with these teachers is that they are so rigid. If anyone comes in to suggest something different then the guru will shut them down and even tell them to go elsewhere if they don't conform to the rigid rules.

J16, Mike and James and the gang are really different, in that they want you guys to be educated and empowered and find something that works for yourself. Their integrity and honesty is something extremely rare in these shark infested waters.

The Turtles Experiment taught us that you can give the same profitable trading strategy to 100 people and they will each trade it differently, and some will be miserable failures despite some people experiencing enormous profits with the same training & system. Really think about that last sentence and let it sink in.

To get back to your question about "ah-ha" moments and whether to "set and forget" or "scale out" or "take full profit at a level" I think is the wrong question to ask. I'm not saying this in a negative way at all as I am glad you asked the question as I received a personal email about this very subject. The question can be summarised as "what is the best way to take profit" or "what is the best way to manage my trades". Really, only you can answer that question only by back testing and forward demo testing and then live experience with real money.

The reason I say this, is that both scaling out and taking full profit at a set level can be both profitable ways of trading as long as you are consistent, disciplined and unemotional. Mike and I are in fact opposite in this regard! I scale out and Mike will take profit fully at a logical level and based on logical price action decisions. Is one of us wrong? No!

When I really started to back test and demo (if you read my other post linked) I started to learn what worked for me. I learned I absolutely hated the pain of drawdown on an exposed trade. In fact, I hated a fully naked and exposed trade. So I identified a problem, and I needed a solution. There were two that I could see which would solve this. (1) I could get to B/E ASAP or (2) I could scale out and leave my S/L slightly negative and overall breakeven so that my trade had some room to breath. I tried both and worked out I prefered (2). As for taking full profit as Mike does, I can only say in my own testing, that yes I worked out that if I took full profit in a similar way to Mike that it ended up being more profitable. However I cannot trade like that because of the way my funny brain works.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,786
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:41pm Aug 11, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting FxLester
Mike and I are in fact opposite in this regard! I scale out and Mike will take profit fully at a logical level and based on logical price action decisions. Is one of us wrong? No! When I really started to back test and demo (if you read my other post linked) I started to learn what worked for me. I learned I absolutely hated the pain of drawdown on an exposed trade. In fact, I hated a fully naked and exposed trade. So I identified a problem, and I needed a solution. There were two that I could see which would solve this. (1) I could get to B/E ASAP...
absolutely lester, this is key stuff here

What works on paper doesn't always translate to what works for someone in real time. A great example of this are methods that offer high reward but low win rates. On paper they are fantastic , but having to endure the drawdowns and low winrates are often psychological killers for most people. This is also the beauty of trading is that we all have different personalities and with logic we can adapt methods that work to our styles.

Mike
  • #131,787
  • Aug 11, 2014 10:47pm Aug 11, 2014 10:47pm
Quoting Ivanyo
Thanks Magestic and Mike for you response re. exotic pairs. Got another one for you guys USDCZK daily chart - I've seen a couple of times in this thread, people posting trades against the trend and that trading against the trend is fine. What goes into determining whether or not to pass on setups like this, where there is a clear trend but the pin bar has formed in the opposite direction? Thanks for your help. {image}
Hey Ivan

For me bar size is important to reverse a strong trend especially without confluence. Bar size and bar close. In your chart the bar close is weak for me. The 5pm close was actually much better and was a good nice bar size that's very low risk on a break. It got to the FTA and reversed now . Without more information to the story the FTA will become more important. If price bounces there i'd want to get out for small profit, b/e, or a VERY small loss. If for example this bar was at the swing high point that's a more major reversal(see weekly chart) it'd give us more of a reason to hold past that FTA. Often it's more important how you manage a situation in the long run then if it's a bad or good bar to take in a scenario like this(which I could see people both taking and passing here)

Hope that helps
Mike
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  • #131,788
  • Aug 11, 2014 11:21pm Aug 11, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting FxLester
{quote} J16, Mike and James and the gang are really different, in that they want you guys to be educated and empowered and find something that works for yourself. Their integrity and honesty is something extremely rare in these shark infested waters.
So true FxLester

J16 thread is a real gem in the www for anyone wanting to learn PA for trading & be profitable over time. How I wished I knew this place years ago when I started trading. Now in my late 30s, having learnt all sorts of methods from fundamental, technical, indicators-style strategies, algo-trading, etc. & paying loads of $$$ for mistakes, I'm glad to have found this place that truly open my eyes to see what price is doing, though a little late but better than never.
  • #131,789
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:49am Aug 12, 2014 1:49am
Hey Mike

I have an important question about Money Management. I read that you always try to reduce risk and let winners run... Now I have seen from my past trades that if I would have leaved my stop on the original place I would not have been stopped out too early but rather would have had a winner. I tried to reduce my risk behind logical Pivot zones and yes it also saved me from full losses. But when I did the math I came out better if I left my stop on the original place because I gave price more room to move. I also saw that price lots of times made a little false break behind the price action signal and then reversed again back.

Now I thought that I would ask for your experience and thoughts.


Really appreciate your help.


Regards,
aserafino
  • #131,790
  • Aug 12, 2014 7:01am Aug 12, 2014 7:01am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} thanks Lester i should note though that beginners and new traders should be sticking to the basics. I always want to drive that home especially in this thread. I do release and give more advanced information as I like to share, but new traders don't worry about this stuff and stick to the basics of this thread while getting your feet wet. More tools will come as you progress Best Mike

Hi Mike, I have a question, if you don't mind.
What would you consider basic tools for PA? I'm demo trading for 2 years now and keep on failing miserably, so I want to get back to the basics and start from the very beginning. I've been thinking about sticking to pinbars, resistance/support levels + trendlines. Do you think it's a good idea? Or maybe do you think something should be added to this little "toolbox"?
Thanks in advance for your reply.

Also, sorry for any mistakes I might have made in this post, English is not my native language.
  • #131,791
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:05am Aug 12, 2014 9:05am
Quoting aserafino
Hey Mike I have an important question about Money Management. I read that you always try to reduce risk and let winners run... Now I have seen from my past trades that if I would have leaved my stop on the original place I would not have been stopped out too early but rather would have had a winner. I tried to reduce my risk behind logical Pivot zones and yes it also saved me from full losses. But when I did the math I came out better if I left my stop on the original place because I gave price more room to move. I also saw that price lots of times...
Hey Aser

That's great that you are researching your trading. Nothing wrong with doing whatever works in that case. It depends on a lot of factors for certain trade mgmt tactics to work. My balance is that I try to pick high quality setups that when I move my stop it doesn't jeopardize the overall story of the setup. Generally the further your targets are the more room you need. I try to find that best course of action for the type and quality of setup I am taking. You are doing the right thing to try to find your balance

Best
Mike
  • #131,792
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:07am Aug 12, 2014 9:07am
Quoting Yawlarutan
{quote} Hi Mike, I have a question, if you don't mind. What would you consider basic tools for PA? I'm demo trading for 2 years now and keep on failing miserably, so I want to get back to the basics and start from the very beginning. I've been thinking about sticking to pinbars, resistance/support levels + trendlines. Do you think it's a good idea? Or maybe do you think something should be added to this little "toolbox"? Thanks in advance for your reply. Also, sorry for any mistakes I might have made in this post, English is not my native language....
Hey Yaw

Absolutely nothing wrong with trimming down what you watch in the beginning. I did the same thing actually as I would rather be great at a few things then OK at a lot of things. Over time you can add new tools to that toolbox as you progress

Your English is fantastic

Mike
  • #131,793
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:47am Aug 12, 2014 10:47am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Welcome as well to the thread Bat! Lester gave a great summary just below that I have nothing I could add to Good to see some new faces popping in
thanks a lot for the feedback, MBQB. i read the posts of BigFisherman and Lester with great interest and i hope i will be able to learn little by little by posting charts with possible trades and getting your thoughts about them

i decided to take the 2 trades anyway - im trading a small account, for practice purposes - i'll see how the trades develop.

cheers,
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #131,794
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:22pm Aug 12, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting Winston Reed
My trading has taken a different path but I will always believe in the principles of J16. I am a life time member of the J16 private forum and eagerly await the return of Jim and the new website. Good luck to all and a big thank you to Mike. You the man Mike!
Same here. Great place to learn, best people around to help new traders out. The other areas I have/am exploring all either build off of the concepts here or are closely related. The first 100 pages are the best trading forum on the web. Though I stray to other areas I still read here everyday.
mbqb11 has to be one of the best mentors in FX, or in trading, or in any area. Just real all of his posts and watch the videos (could take a while) and all for free with no sales pitch.

Can't wait for the new site.
Just a long overdue testimonial....
  • #131,795
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:33pm Aug 12, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting FXBat
{quote} thanks a lot for the feedback, MBQB. i read the posts of BigFisherman and Lester with great interest and i hope i will be able to learn little by little by posting charts with possible trades and getting your thoughts about them i decided to take the 2 trades anyway - im trading a small account, for practice purposes - i'll see how the trades develop. cheers,
great Bat, we'll try to jump in and help when we can

Best of luck
Mike
  • #131,796
  • Aug 12, 2014 3:33pm Aug 12, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting Caesar
{quote} Same here. Great place to learn, best people around to help new traders out. The other areas I have/am exploring all either build off of the concepts here or are closely related. The first 100 pages are the best trading forum on the web. Though I stray to other areas I still read here everyday. mbqb11 has to be one of the best mentors in FX, or in trading, or in any area. Just real all of his posts and watch the videos (could take a while) and all for free with no sales pitch. Can't wait for the new site. Just a long overdue testimonial....
wow thanks guys, that's some nice praise. Just someone sharing his experiences, nothing more nothing less. Glad it can help though

Thanks again seriously made my day

Mike
  • #131,797
  • Edited Aug 13, 2014 12:52am Aug 12, 2014 4:03pm | Edited Aug 13, 2014 12:52am
I'll be away for a few months but One last chart for you all. GJ has been carving out this ascending triangle since Jan 2014 suggestive of a breakout to the upside. There is an all-time-high at 175.x. I would be looking to play a breakout and pullback to this level. Really high probability zone in my opinion. Unfortunately I won't be around as I've promised my wife I won't trade while we enjoy our holiday.

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I'm travelling around-the-world the next 3 months with my beautiful wife so I won't be posting as much. I'll still drop by when I can and post a chart if I see something!

Trade safely all, and bye for now!
Lester
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,798
  • Aug 12, 2014 4:07pm Aug 12, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting FxLester
I'll be away for a few months but One last chart for you all. GJ has been carving out this ascending triangle since Jan 2014 suggestive of a breakout to the upside. There is an all-time-high at 175.x. I would be looking to play a breakout and pullback to this level. Really high probability zone in my opinion. Unfortunately I won't be around as I've promised my wife I won't trade while we enjoy our holiday. {image} I'm travelling around-the-world the next 3 months with my beautiful wife so I won't be posting as much. I'll still drop by when I can...
enjoy your holiday lester
  • #131,799
  • Aug 12, 2014 6:07pm Aug 12, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting FxLester
I'll be away for a few months but One last chart for you all. GJ has been carving out this ascending triangle since Jan 2014 suggestive of a breakout to the upside. There is an all-time-high at 175.x. I would be looking to play a breakout and pullback to this level. Really high probability zone in my opinion. Unfortunately I won't be around as I've promised my wife I won't trade while we enjoy our holiday. {image} I'm travelling around-the-world the next 3 months with my beautiful wife so I won't be posting as much. I'll still drop by when I can...
enjoy the trip mate!
very good to see you on here as your charts are excellent to learn from
  • #131,800
  • Aug 12, 2014 8:06pm Aug 12, 2014 8:06pm
Enjoy the trip Lester. Have a nice and safe journey....
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