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  • #83,741
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:09am Aug 11, 2014 12:09am
Well, let's start that A/U push upwards now, if we can...

4H says big retracement is coming, but Daily says big push is coming.

So the longer you wait, the more likely it is that the Daily TF will win and overpower the 4H retracement TF.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #83,742
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:10am Aug 11, 2014 12:10am
Quoting Nif90
{quote} something like this? {image}
Yah this is possible. The thing to watch for though is the consolidation. A well defined H&S would be a clear distinction or separation from the neck line. There is a lot of consolidation here (3x4hr inside bars so far) so the next "wave" hasn't become apparent as of yet imo. Also it's good to try to relate the shoulder lines with serious S/R lines to be sure there is justification for a trend reversal.

That said, I am long AU from .9262 with lt expectations of this year HH. It's a low risk trade with fairly tight stop.

GL.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,743
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:04am Aug 11, 2014 1:04am
Attached Image
  • #83,744
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:51am Aug 11, 2014 1:51am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yah this is possible. The thing to watch for though is the consolidation. A well defined H&S would be a clear distinction or separation from the neck line. There is a lot of consolidation here (3x4hr inside bars so far) so the next "wave" hasn't become apparent as of yet imo. Also it's good to try to relate the shoulder lines with serious S/R lines to be sure there is justification for a trend reversal. That said, I am long AU from .9262 with lt expectations of this year HH. It's a low risk trade with fairly tight stop. GL.
So the next "wave" I was talking about is in progress. The yellow line is a daily/weekly TL from 2/8/13. Imo that is the idea of a H&S where the shoulders are supported by a strong TL, preferably sloping in the direction the H&S is indicating (sloping up in this instance for a reversal). If PA crosses the TL and creates a lower right shoulder than the left then it would seem the bears are still at work and the setup would likely be negated.
Attached Image
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,745
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:14am Aug 11, 2014 2:14am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} So the next "wave" I was talking about is in progress. The yellow line is a daily/weekly TL from 2/8/13. Imo that is the idea of a H&S where the shoulders are supported by a strong TL, preferably sloping in the direction the H&S is indicating (sloping up in this instance for a reversal). If PA crosses the TL and creates a lower right shoulder than the left then it would seem the bears are still at work and the setup would likely be negated. {image}
so if you want to say that in a simple way, if it doesn't continue down it may go up and if it goes down it is down... nice to get that worked out.
  • #83,746
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:17am Aug 11, 2014 2:17am
Good Morning !

Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
AUDUSD
EURJPY

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post7664957

EURO PINK
CABLE PINK
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #83,747
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:24am Aug 11, 2014 2:24am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,748
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:39am Aug 11, 2014 2:39am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} so if you want to say that in a simple way, if it doesn't continue down it may go up and if it goes down it is down... nice to get that worked out.
If that's what you took from that...

hopefully helped a few newbs out there.

GL.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,749
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:47am Aug 11, 2014 2:47am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} If that's what you took from that... hopefully helped a few newbs out there. GL.
my opinion is that technical are a great influence in the market but fundamentals are the real drivers. Major changes in the US and Aus are happening and economists are not in agreement yet. Newbs need to be aware of this and not get caught in the crossfire.
  • #83,750
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:00am Aug 11, 2014 3:00am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} my opinion is that technical are a great influence in the market but fundamentals are the real drivers. Major changes in the US and Aus are happening and economists are not in agreement yet. Newbs need to be aware of this and not get caught in the crossfire.
Sounds like just another trading day to me. Technicals are just the inner thoughts of fundamentals imo, you just need to know how to listen.


Edit: And I don't know of any major changes in Aus. It's all to do with U.S., EZ and geopolitical play atm imo.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,751
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:20am Aug 11, 2014 4:20am
Continuously trying to build shorts on this for fundy reasons... but its trading very boring for whatever reason.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #83,752
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:35am Aug 11, 2014 4:35am
Quoting Citiboy
Continuously trying to build shorts on this for fundy reasons... but its trading very boring for whatever reason.
Technical reasons for me.

See a .8850 by year end (or sooner)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #83,753
  • Edited 5:08am Aug 11, 2014 4:40am | Edited 5:08am
If we go back to the weekly break of resistance starting in late March into early April we get a clearer picture of the fundamentals. If you look at the numbers you see stable employment, housing prices still a bit steamy and gold bouncing off $1278 up to the $1320 area. In addition you see some less than desirable numbers coming out of the US. Result = AU surges to 94.60 on April 10 (and doesn't prick that level again until July1, short lived indeed)

From that point on almost every month retail sales and building approvals were basically below expectation, in addition, CPI and PPI were at or below expectations, AND housing prices started cooling off, BUT employment numbers were still stable, but now we see some better US numbers coming out. Result AU ranging (buy on dips mentality sets in)

In hindsight, going into July it seems sentiment was indeed changing. Clearly, any thoughts of the RBA hiking rates was less than probable and most likely not a possibility at all while at the same time the possibility of a US rate hike seemed a bit more plausible in 2015 regardless of the Feds dovish gum flapping. IMO, the perception was there regardless of future reality.

In July AU unemployment ticks back up to 6.0, AU takes one more run at 94.6 area before the dreadful 6.4 employment number last week and voila, here we are into our third week possibly down after a MR DOJI. To me, even though I don't necessarily believe the accuracy of the US and Australian employment numbers, the perception is there. The perception is there that any interest rate move on this pair will likely be US favorable.

Sorry to be long winded but just wanted to rant a bit on the fundamental perception of this pair. I am sure wiser heads may disagree on many points (and thats a good thing) but IMO, the "buy on dips" mentality may be slowly replaced by the
"sell into resistance" mentality.

Simple chart below, showing that weekly break back in March, along with Mr DOJI 3 weeks ago. In addition, weekly divergence playing out and we are now trading in the lower portion of the 34EMA, there is a fair amount of air below that wave should we sag another 100 pips or so.

Good trading to all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #83,754
  • Aug 11, 2014 4:52am Aug 11, 2014 4:52am
Quoting Expo33
If we go back to the weekly break of resistance starting in late March into early April we get a clearer picture of the fundamentals. If you look at the numbers you see stable employment, housing prices still a bit steamy and gold bouncing off $1278 up to the $1320 area. In addition you see some less than desirable numbers coming out of the US. Result = AU surges to 94.60 on April 10 (and doesn't prick that level again until July1, short lived indeed) From that point on almost every month retail sales and building approvals were basically below...
Insightful post. Thanks Expo.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,755
  • Aug 11, 2014 5:10am Aug 11, 2014 5:10am
No fresh shorts at these levels for me. Looking for a larger rally for new shorts. (The "my gosh why is the AUD this high right now?" is coming again on a trading platform near you IMO...)

9286 - 9300 is the rocky road for moves up currently with dips into the 9240s - 9220s possible...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #83,756
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:33am Aug 11, 2014 6:33am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Sounds like just another trading day to me. Technicals are just the inner thoughts of fundamentals imo, you just need to know how to listen. Edit: And I don't know of any major changes in Aus. It's all to do with U.S., EZ and geopolitical play atm imo.
Sorry Matts been out so unable to respond till now but i don't think that this is all about US etc.

Things appear in decline in Aus and now the call for a rate cut is growing, unemployment is expected to increase, commodity prices esp Iron Ore are declining and the expectation of falling dollar are increasing. The value of the AUD/USD has remained in a sideways band while all of this has been unfolding. Do you expect a sudden movement sometime soon?
  • #83,757
  • Aug 11, 2014 7:05am Aug 11, 2014 7:05am
AUDUSD likely to re-test 0.9200 levels near 50% Fibo. 200-day EMA (currently near 0.9290) restricts the pair's up-move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,758
  • Aug 11, 2014 7:21am Aug 11, 2014 7:21am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} Sorry Matts been out so unable to respond till now but i don't think that this is all about US etc. Things appear in decline in Aus and now the call for a rate cut is growing, unemployment is expected to increase, commodity prices esp Iron Ore are declining and the expectation of falling dollar are increasing. The value of the AUD/USD has remained in a sideways band while all of this has been unfolding. Do you expect a sudden movement sometime soon?
I am actually with you on the bears fundamentally. Things have been a little less positive for a couple months with the rebalancing from the mining macro to the real estate sector etc, it seems Mr Stevens will finally get his way with a drop of the exchange rate. The shifting sand of the geopolitics is making it hard to find firm footing though. The USD seemed to be the safe haven of choice but now with Iraq news it seems there maybe a pullback. Where do the investors go now? Euro is out imo with Russian/Ukraine tensions so perhaps Gold or Yen. Both these choices have the opportunity to make the AUD stronger.

I rely on my TA for my trades but try to follow Fundies for possible direction and liquidity. The reason I am long on the AU atm is because it is as you said earlier that there is a lot of uncertainty about, so a good H&S setup with a tight stop offers good R:R if it pays out, if not it's a small loss easily absorbed.

Edit: Forgot chart

The same TL I posted before and is breaking north as I type. The light blue TL is a daily from 2.5.14. If it breaks above here it could be the beginning of a daily bull move imo. (fooked up my trade, I had almost the same TL on another chart but a bit higher and when it broke below I closed my trade (+1 pip). My trade is now at .9265, my trade management needs work lol).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd #30.JPG Size: 32 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,759
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:03pm Aug 11, 2014 1:03pm
Strange day. Low volume I think, almost like a public holiday has made strange PA.

Looks like it's trying to squeeze the stops under 9257 and I may close as the H&S pattern I have being following is getting nullified. It always seems the obvious ones fail
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #83,760
  • Edited 1:45pm Aug 11, 2014 1:21pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting Matts Micro
Strange day. Low volume I think, almost like a public holiday has made strange PA. Looks like it's trying to squeeze the stops under 9257 and I may close as the H&S pattern I have being following is getting nullified. It always seems the obvious ones fail
Maybe some indecision after last weeks action. Still unclear how the situation in the Ukraine is going to play out.

Big money may be a bit shell shocked. Maybe the comfortable feeling of a nice carry trade with price appreciation possibilities is being replaced by thoughts of 100 pips drops coupled with a potential future rate cut. Not saying that is going to happen, but surely there must be some hesitation at the moment.

It will be interesting to see what happens during the Asian session into London
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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