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NZD/USD

  • #7,281
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:42am Aug 8, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Rtm
Just loading more shorts here xD paying expensive swap! YEA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdmfVyPrqcc
I closed for +6%

Still Bullish, but I don't dare hold a bear flag over the weekend this close to major support.

You won't get my money, but you may get bragging rights
  • #7,282
  • Aug 8, 2014 12:39pm Aug 8, 2014 12:39pm
Scalper is for person with no guts!! Joke In all honesty. Do you really think NZD can be at .85? Yes it can..will it drop afterwards 100% and much more than .20 guaranteed
  • #7,283
  • Aug 8, 2014 1:08pm Aug 8, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I closed for +6% Still Bullish, but I don't dare hold a bear flag over the weekend this close to major support. You won't get my money, but you may get bragging rights
Good job! I dont care about bragging rights, just the money.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,284
  • Aug 8, 2014 1:53pm Aug 8, 2014 1:53pm
decided to thhe little dirty and go long here on NZD. Holding up decently. Not much news next week.
  • #7,285
  • Aug 8, 2014 2:57pm Aug 8, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Good job! I dont care about bragging rights, just the money.
I am fully in this trade and hedged at the moment. Either way it goes I will win.

RTM I highly respect your opinion but seeing this puppy go to .83 will be hard for me to swallow. Not saying that it can't but I think this will retrace soon before/if it does. Not sure why you picked that number but I have some shorts with you.

If this goes to .85 I will be a happy camper as I have some longs to, but not sure right now as it got rejected already and price is not going back up at the moment.

In the end I can honestly say I have no idea where this is going, either way I will make money just would like a clear picture, and right now we don't have one. Closing out this week it closes right in the middle of the bar. I have a feeling of what it will do next week, but it is only a feeling.

Anyone can say this will go up or down, 50/50 shot. I will follow price.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #7,286
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:02pm Aug 8, 2014 11:02pm
NuUs manages to breach the first resistance level @.8486, it'll probably continue up to test .8513.,

If it manages to breach the first key support @.8434, it'll probably continue to slide and test .8410.
  • #7,287
  • Aug 8, 2014 11:06pm Aug 8, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} I am fully in this trade and hedged at the moment. Either way it goes I will win. RTM I highly respect your opinion but seeing this puppy go to .83 will be hard for me to swallow. Not saying that it can't but I think this will retrace soon before/if it does. Not sure why you picked that number but I have some shorts with you. If this goes to .85 I will be a happy camper as I have some longs to, but not sure right now as it got rejected already and price is not going back up at the moment. In the end I can honestly say I have no idea where...
0.8300? Buddy we going a lot lower than that. I think we will see low .7000s maybe even 0.6xxxs for kiwi in the years to come. I assume you are using a rotational hedge of some sort? We are SOO close to entering a full on risk aversion theme that will send Kiwi sinking! Just need to see the drop in UJ
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,288
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:35am Aug 9, 2014 12:35am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} 0.8300? Buddy we going a lot lower than that. I think we will see low .7000s maybe even 0.6xxxs for kiwi in the years to come. I assume you are using a rotational hedge of some sort? We are SOO close to entering a full on risk aversion theme that will send Kiwi sinking! Just need to see the drop in UJ
0.7000s? 0.6xxx? you think USA can go back 80s to be the KING of the world??

before USD rate hike, NZD will stay above 0.83+, or even 0.84+.
  • #7,289
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:57am Aug 9, 2014 12:57am
Quoting zew
{quote} 0.7000s? 0.6xxx? you think USA can go back 80s to be the KING of the world?? before USD rate hike, NZD will stay above 0.83+, or even 0.84+.
Jury is still out about US economic recovery (IMF projection is 1.7% GDP growth for 2014 which is essentially reverse growth)There is lot of hot air without substance.
You will find traders posting extreme numbers, in most part its a public forum and everyone has an opinion but nobody knows shit 1 month from now let alone next 12 months.
Trade what you see and ignore the noise.I put 2 guys on my ignore because both constantly "forecasting the future"
Market moves by MM and there is such a thing called Elliot Wave/Harmonics= greed and fear and both always operate all TF's.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,290
  • Aug 9, 2014 4:30am Aug 9, 2014 4:30am
Inverted HnS

Quoting iqyu5an
HnS {image}
Attached Image
not euphoria follower
  • #7,291
  • Aug 9, 2014 6:39am Aug 9, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Jury is still out about US economic recovery (IMF projection is 1.7% GDP growth for 2014 which is essentially reverse growth)There is lot of hot air without substance. You will find traders posting extreme numbers, in most part its a public forum and everyone has an opinion but nobody knows shit 1 month from now let alone next 12 months. Trade what you see and ignore the noise.I put 2 guys on my ignore because both constantly "forecasting the future" Market moves by MM and there is such a thing called Elliot Wave/Harmonics= greed and fear...
  • #7,292
  • Aug 9, 2014 9:20am Aug 9, 2014 9:20am
These are simple market forces in play with the central banks. No one currency can get to strong or it will hurt their goods and services in the law of supply and demand. If the currency value goes to high, they lose their overall buying power. So it all comes to balance. Few news reports change anything. I view it as a manipulating tool that is working less and less since many of these trades are computer generated and monitored. It's a central banks game. We just go along for the ride.

Until (using my OHLC with the crossover EMI) crosses the low range in the monthly we will be in transition. I won't feel comfortable that we're in a solid downtrend until it hits the .80's. If it breaks the .88's it goes back into 'no man's' territory and who knows where that will end.

I only hope for a drop because a downtrend will go on for at least a year and if history serves, it could be multiple years. Being in a solid downtrend or uptrend gives a stronger positioning power.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #7,293
  • Edited Aug 10, 2014 5:30am Aug 9, 2014 10:53am | Edited Aug 10, 2014 5:30am
Quoting Spik
Dear NZD traders. I guess you all wonder where NZDUSD is heading and what fate lies ahead of it in next days/weeks. Last few days i was looking at NZDUSD daily chart and i thought, where have i seen this pattern?! It was so familiar. It finally stroke me, we had that exact line somewhere in the past. Let me put graphic comparison: {image} As you see, EURUSD (right part of pic - WEEKLY chart!) had that exact sequence 4 years ago in 2009/2010, when it was attacking 2008 highs, as is NZDUSD right now (left part of pic - DAILY chart!). Sequence goes...
The similarity between the 2 charts is very close indeed, I guess the probability of step 9 playing out as former 8 steps have is very high.

Back when NZD peaked 0.884 on Aug/2011, it came back to 0.796 in only 6 days and kept falling to 0.747 after a 61.8+ retracement.

Edit: Time will tell
  • #7,294
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:58pm Aug 9, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting zew
{quote} 0.7000s? 0.6xxx? you think USA can go back 80s to be the KING of the world?? before USD rate hike, NZD will stay above 0.83+, or even 0.84+.
Im not saying anything about US being the king of the world. You have to understand that economies are cyclical in nature and that means we can predict/forecast where a currency price will go. Its not a matter of being wrong its the deviation.. as we cannot predict within a pip the movement but watch and see for yourself! Good luck trading out there
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,295
  • Aug 10, 2014 4:07pm Aug 10, 2014 4:07pm
Sitting on daily support, anyone looking to go long?
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  • #7,296
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:13am Aug 11, 2014 1:13am
Intraday TF 30 min
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  • #7,297
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:15am Aug 11, 2014 1:15am
Very slow moving day today. NZD still very venerable as it is one of the most highly leveraged currency for its carry. Tomorrow AUD Business Confidence I think will be off worse than expected. The Risk/Reward favors shorting the positions. Or not to buy. If profit take.
  • #7,298
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:40am Aug 11, 2014 1:40am
Kiwi has been priced to PERFECTION! And with USD looking only UP KIWI has to go down from here after the big drop already seen.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #7,299
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:45am Aug 11, 2014 2:45am
Quoting Rtm
Kiwi has been priced to PERFECTION! And with USD looking only UP KIWI has to go down from here after the big drop already seen.
More importantly. Fonterra just has a horrible picture on dairy prices. Its hard to see NZD climbing back. You can buy on big pull backs for short-term correction. However, there is a big drop coming...Just don't want to be on the wrong end up the stick on that one!
  • #7,300
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:46am Aug 11, 2014 2:46am
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} More importantly. Fonterra just has a horrible picture on dairy prices. Its hard to see NZD climbing back. You can buy on big pull backs for short-term correction. However, there is a big drop coming...Just don't want to be on the wrong end up the stick on that one!
10-4 kiwiman!
All posts are my personal opinion
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