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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #10,121
  • Aug 8, 2014 8:19am Aug 8, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} The GBPCAD is a real mover. It likes to sleep then BAM!!! Whips both ways as Supply and Demand hit the market on news events. Call it stop hunting or whatever but I've notice this to happen alot on this pair. Price is to easy to move. I use to trade it. Really good signals (as PA goes) and follows the harmonics well but I couldn't take the pain of having my stops further then ussual.
It was a rapid move today, but have to keep watch for the V type retracements, they are real hearbreakers. .
As you were saying, would have to stick to our preliminary stoplosses as price moves rapidly. I have to work on the proper placement of these stoplosses as far as ab=cds are concerned.

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I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,122
  • Aug 8, 2014 8:37am Aug 8, 2014 8:37am
Good Morning Traders.

I got this set up on the EURAUD-4hr. Not technicially a Gartley (B point doesnt close above 61.8 or touch, pretty close tho). Not technicially a BAT (C point spikes through but doesn't close below 61.8). It does, however, have two AB=CD patterns with ratio confluence at the 78.6 and 88.6 levels of the main swing in the direction of Long Term Order Flow. Structure looks good as well.

Its still a ways a way but its on my radar. Probably complete next week. Its beyond my trading timeframe so I'll be looking to see if I can get a smaller pattern that confirms completion and use the bigger pattern price targets as confirmation for extended targets.


http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/Phbwn.png
  • #10,123
  • Aug 8, 2014 9:31am Aug 8, 2014 9:31am
AB = CD completed 100% with a nice pullback to structure before dropping.
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #10,124
  • Aug 8, 2014 6:51pm Aug 8, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting chotabheem
hello Mr.Pip, could you please provide some rules of engagement for ab=cd. Especially the stoploss part. The whole ab=cd move could be unorthodox but some orientation on this would really be helpful. So, far I have been taking a reasonable stoploss, (stoploss below a previous structure at the same time giving an 1:1.5 RR), but if you could shed more light on this it would really be nice.
The rules are the same the only difference is your entry on the aggressive C side but the rest is all the same. An AB=CD is nothing more than a Harmonic 1:1 move D complete at an equal distance to AB.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #10,125
  • Aug 8, 2014 7:02pm Aug 8, 2014 7:02pm
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #10,126
  • Aug 8, 2014 7:35pm Aug 8, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
Hi Mr. Pip,

Not sure what your rules are but I would consider that a deep crab due to 88.6 retracement and 2.24 BC projection. Hope my answer is helpful as I am interested in what you look for to qualify these setups. This would be one as well.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,127
  • Aug 8, 2014 7:48pm Aug 8, 2014 7:48pm
Hi Mr.Pip,

If I may try....

1. The price hang out in the PRZ zone for more time.. i remember you mentioning in your post that when price hang out in the PRZ for more time the chances of PRZ failure are higher.

2. The candle which went up later didnt manage to close near it upper half which means the bulls didnt have enough power to hang on to their gains. This happend after price reached the structure area indicated by the pink line on your chart.

3.The next candle closed below the immediate swing low to the left where the price touched the PRZ for the first time....

these are the clues that I see....kindly comment.

Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
Enter Signature
  • #10,128
  • Aug 8, 2014 8:50pm Aug 8, 2014 8:50pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
Great confluence of ratios, 100x161x161x200,
Especially, AB swing, back, up to 61%, and 161% is proyeccción,.
BC 200%, and we have two ONETONE, In CD, we have a OneToOne.
Great confluence, and much bearish mmtum. Clues for have this expectation of TP.
I hope, learn all that I need, what you teach us.
Thank you, greetings
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  • #10,129
  • Edited 10:13pm Aug 8, 2014 9:29pm | Edited 10:13pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
Good Evening. I thought I would add me 2 cents to this exercise. First, I want to start with, that I agree with my colleagues There was an area for a potential reversal. I agree with wills assessment of Price action.

1) I personally think the biggest contributor to the failure is that the trade was counter trend in a strong Bearish Market. There has been heavy selling for the last month so any trade contrary to the trend inherently has lower probability of success compare to trend continuation trades.

2) Also "A" failed to engulf the previous swing high to make a Higher high and convince me that there was sufficient demand to push price higher and consume the supply.

3) Structure was weak. There was a little bouncing around weeks ago in the area but it wasn't very strong. Round numbers do provide a phsycological barriers but there wasn't any evidence to support this.

I added some comments to the PA

GBPUSD 1 hr
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cKmVFfrw/
  • #10,130
  • Edited 9:44pm Aug 8, 2014 9:30pm | Edited 9:44pm
Mr Pip. Here's how I see it.
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  • #10,131
  • Aug 8, 2014 10:20pm Aug 8, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting 76bronco
Mr Pip. Here's how I see it. {image} {image}
Nice analysis. Very clear. I'm interested to see how Price reacts on Sunday. Maybe get a few pips on the 3 drives you highlighted. Maybe get a pullback to the RN. There seems to be a stall in price. Probably disinterest due to end of week.... uhm... lets see if we can get some confirmation
  • #10,132
  • Aug 9, 2014 12:47am Aug 9, 2014 12:47am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
Hi Mr. Pip
Long time not posted here but do recommend others to check you out.One of your videos you clearly define Order flow as battle of bulls and Bears and one side wins.
Looking at the tails of candles right above PRZ its obvious Bull drive is clearly rejected.No need to over think it or over analyze.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #10,133
  • Aug 9, 2014 3:07am Aug 9, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Mr. Pip, Not sure what your rules are but I would consider that a deep crab due to 88.6 retracement and 2.24 BC projection. Hope my answer is helpful as I am interested in what you look for to qualify these setups. This would be one as well. {image}
I have not looked at the measurements of the pattern Mr.Pip. I focused only on reading the price:
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  • #10,134
  • Aug 9, 2014 3:10am Aug 9, 2014 3:10am
Mr. Pip
you can post many trades that have not worked?
  • #10,135
  • Aug 9, 2014 6:58am Aug 9, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello Princ, {quote} There was a small ABCD ending at an area of structure. Price also showed weakness and hesitation. My expectation was a LH and then a NSL in accordance with the order flow and the larger pattern completion point. Refer to the first chart below and the arrow. Use the short term order flow to help you time your entry it confirms the longer term order flow. {quote} There is no X point where my trade was. There was the C leg of the overall pattern. Refer to second chart. I was trading harmonics on the way to the pattern completion....
OK, as I understood about taking trades at 50% is in this case of the downward leg that in your eyes was seen as fairly good trend strenght so you decided that in case like this the price shouldn`t retrace greater than 50% that would indicate trend weakening.
I am worried about this because it could take you out of the trade where you saw that price accelerated into 78.6% zone and 4 pips away the SL.
I know that you traded the ab cd harmonic purely as you said, but many times even on a nice trend the price could test the golden area or even spikes to the high swing.
Yes I know that happens rare but as I now understand it is really important because of things like that to correct evaluate the state of trend.
Am I on a correct way of thinking ?
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  • #10,136
  • Aug 9, 2014 8:22am Aug 9, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} The rules are the same the only difference is your entry on the aggressive C side but the rest is all the same. An AB=CD is nothing more than a Harmonic 1:1 move D complete at an equal distance to AB.
Thank you Mr. Pip, will try to get more time into ab=cds. Good stuff.
I follow only one person and his strategies...
  • #10,137
  • Aug 9, 2014 9:13am Aug 9, 2014 9:13am
Quoting GiovanniV
{quote} I have not looked at the measurements of the pattern Mr.Pip. I focused only on reading the price: {image}
Sure, just happened to have it handy as was trading it on Friday. That was my expectation all along. So, here we are, with a chance for another one to evaluate.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,138
  • Aug 9, 2014 9:28am Aug 9, 2014 9:28am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Sure, just happened to have it handy as was trading it on Friday. That was my expectation all along. So, here we are, with a chance for another one to evaluate.
Scott what do you think of this
Harmonic in the making.Thinking minimum target C 38fib but anticipate lot deeper like past A
Thks
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #10,139
  • Aug 9, 2014 10:04am Aug 9, 2014 10:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Scott what do you think of this Harmonic in the making.Thinking minimum target C 38fib but anticipate lot deeper like past A Thks {image}
Hi Davit,

Do not want to clutter Mr. Pip's thread, but yes.

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Oh captain, my captain, little late in the day....Long as you are not a little tipsy. {image}
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,140
  • Aug 9, 2014 5:16pm Aug 9, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Does anyone want to take a stab at the Butterfly that failed? Where there any clues that this would happen? I will wait to see some responses and then I will provide you with how you should look at these types of setups. {image}
I am still very new at this harmonics action, but in the book "Trade what you see", they talk about vicious movements bearish or bullish on the CD leg, can indicate a less than probable reversal at the PRZ.
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