DON'T trade Udine's 00 level Strategy

OK, I've read everyone's comments here..... and you know who I agree with ??

Everyone.

I think on the balance I agree with everyone's points of view. From the one's who will say that the system doesn't work to the one's who will swear that it does.
Those that say volatility is the problem lately, I believe it is. I believe the system works and I believe it doesn't work. I believe it certainly can work and it also can't.

Welcome to the dark side of trading.

There's no cookie-cutter system that will make everyone who tries it easily successful.
The one's I saw losing the biggest weren't following the rules at all. And to think that the rules - Udines Rules - are going to make everyone rich is ridiculous.
That's not how it works. If there were a system that could truly be so rule based as to be able to be coded into a very disciplined ea, it would not even be for sale, let alone given away for free. The banks would pay 9 figures for the algorithm. Wake up.

To think that a new trader with no experience can just pick up a computer, make a half-assed attempt at reading the thread and sit back and watch every trade just magically go their way - Ugh <face-plant>

There's nothing wrong with THIS thread either. Talk it out. Figure it out. Work it out. Modify what works for your own personality. Take what you can and make it work for you, or take a piece of it with you (PDF/BCC). Congratulations. You're learning, and growing up along the way.

But when you push that button. I repeat..... When YOU PUSH that button, you dam well take the responsibility for pushing it.

No one said it would be easy, but I can promise you it will be the hardest thing you have ever even dreamed about doing. In fact, just walk away. It only gets harder.

When volatility picks up.... your 10 pip stops are gonna get smoked in 3 seconds. That was fun. Now dry up those tears 'cause it's gonna still keep getting harder. No free lunch kids. And no little leagues to practice your skills against other young traders. Every game is a World Series game. And yes..... no matter who your coach is you're prolly gonna get your ass handed to you.

Udines approach might make it easier for you. Well.... I meant a little bit less hard.

Welcome to the dark side of trading.

@Price
@trader34

Excellent posts, guys.

When I started out, like many newbies I looked for plug'n'play mechanical systems. After almost 8 years of searching, I've yet to find one that's consistently profitable. Every system has its Achilles heel: market conditions that are unfavorable.

For readers who don't know me, software development has been my career since I left high school in 1979. Between 2009-2011 I wrote maybe 20 MT4 EAs, by handpicking the ideas and strategies that I thought looked most promising, from the dozens of requests that I received. These were from FF members who swore that their strategies were profitable; a couple of these members had more than 20 vouches. I spent several weeks on some of these EAs, adding indicators to filter entries, check for volatility, session ranges, times of day, days of the week, red news events; varying different types of exits, open-ending MM strategies to include everything from fixed frac to reverse staircases to martingale variants. To the best of my knowledge, NONE of these EAs is being run profitably today.

The conclusion that I've reached: no EA can ever trade as intelligently as a human. Experienced human traders can internalize visual patterns, analyze context, weigh up different technical and fundamental factors, adapt their strategies to changing market conditions, and so on.

Perhaps an even better example is the EA that I wrote for Claudia. Claudia is an ex-bank trader who now trades very profitably for a living. She has very generously shared one of her basic entry strategies here (don't be put off by the commercial tag; nothing is being sold). Long story short, while the strategy is gold in Claudia's hands, the EA is not profitable without a lot of manual intervention.

In other words, it's not the system, it's the trader that makes a system profitable. There's a great post by Fudomyo here, about how some traders can extract profit from the market because they know how to get the best mileage out of mediocre tools.

Having said all that, I've no doubt that there are profitable EAs out there; there are plenty of smarter people than me! However, I doubt that too many of these EAs will ever be shared on forums like these. And I expect that many of them take a very different approach to the TA-based ideas and strategies that tend to pervade trading forums.

I haven't given Udine's thread more than a fleeting glance, so I'm not qualified to comment. But I see plenty of polarized opinions on review forums like Forex Peace Army: some buyers give a forex system or educator 5 out of 5 stars, while others rate the same vendor a scam. Here are three possible reasons:

1. The reviews are not independent. The vendor fakes 5 star reviews for himself, while his competitors automatically rate his system a scam.

2. The system is impotent, and the folk who are rating it 5 stars simply haven't been using it for long enough for it to break down. Among these systems are those that are propped up by dodgy or unsustainable MM: grids, hedges, indiscriminate adding to losers, loss recovery algos, martingale variants and other poor or non-existent risk management. Some of these MMs can deliver profit for several months, before they eventually implode.

3. The system works in the hands of traders who have the necessary aptitude, patience, nerve and stamina to implement it correctly. Hence those who fall in to this category rate the system as great; while those who get poor results blame the system for their own failings.


Like I said, I've been experimenting with forex for around 8 years, with mixed success. I have friends whom I correspond with who are profitable, and by using perfectly conventional approaches. I see plenty of threads in the Rookie Section started by folk who think they've devised some revolutionary new "holy grail" strategy, that the millions of traders who've gone before them, including all of the highly paid experts and PhDs that work for large banks and institutions, have somehow overlooked. I also see "$500 to $1 million in 6 months" type threads from those who apparently believe that forex should be easy. I see a growing number of posts from lazy freeloaders who expect to be shown the "holy grail" for free, and then when somebody does generously give a few pointers that have taken them years to hone, they demand to see proof of performance. I apologize if this sounds condescending, but the audacity and ignorance of some people never ceases to amaze me.

Just my 2c worth.

David

Since the creation of centralized open markets (about 400 years ago) there has never been a trading system that has produced consistent positive result over time.
Give it enough time and the system will "stop working". And it will stop working in the most devastating and destructive way, pretty much taking back all the gains.
Through the decades and generations "all of the highly paid experts and PhDs that work for large banks and institutions" have never been able to "beat the market" with some sort of rule based system (computerized or not).

Obviously, if there is a way to beat the market, a strategy must be radically different from anything that even resembles some logical approach -- even if "non-logical" rules are put in!

What you are looking for is a "non-system", built like a Alice in Wonderland nonsense poem or some weird art work that makes you think - or rather, makes you "non-think". It would be a "no-rule" system, that does have rules that are not rules!

Probably, traders will need to be on LSD to use it

Udine's is free.You like it, take it .You don't like it, move on.Use your thread to give the forum members a holy grail, if you have one, rather than cast aspersion on someone else's thread

@hanover (David)

Very well put and balanced summary.

As you said, the trader is the biggest factor in success or failure. In the hands of a good trader, even a mediocre system can be profitable, and the reverse is definitely true. I am not implying that anyone who disagrees with Udine's method is a poor trader, far from it. But to insist that his idea had no merit whatsoever is just misleading and unhelpful. That's the main issue i had with this thread.

Anyone trying to advise anyone else, especially beginners, that they should not learn to apply discretion is at best unrealistic in my opinion.
As @Mingary put it, far smarter people than us here posting on forex factory have been working at this for years, and as yet, no miraculous wonder system has been found. I would agree that any "system" completely rule based will either fail completely, or produce unacceptable draw down sooner or later. I have experienced this first hand, a good few times now.
The market is always changing...nearly everyone on every forum says that, yet people are still looking for the one size fits all method to trading, one set of rules, one ring to rule them all I don't think it exists, i believe we have to analyse the charts in each scenario.

Slowly i am becoming consistently profitable, and they way i am doing this is by looking at some extremely basic ideas, and using my discretion. For me, the most important thing is to make a decision, and live with it. If it wins, great, if it doesn't, OK i dust myself down, check if i traded according to best knowledge and move on.
I have lost the most money when i revenge traded, or taken dodgy entries in fear of missing some moves. That's the main reason I personally like Udine's idea, because above all, he advises patience. The market won't go away...there is no need to enter a trade every time the price crosses a line. Sit back, relax, look at the bigger picture and decide if you think it is a high probability trade in the current condition. To me, that attitude, regardless of the entry signal you prefer, is the way to be profitable.

The most frustrating experiences I've had in trading is when a "system" i have been using gives me a signal that screams "BAD IDEA, DON'T DO IT!" to me. But i was a good rule based trader, and pressed the button anyway. This became too much for me, so i stopped looking for the mechanical, indicator based methods, and started looking at price action. The principle of Udine's method is trade with the current movement, and get in and out quickly. It fits me personally so i looked deeper.
Not saying everyone should, but in no way is Udine's idea, or thread harmful to newbie traders. Moreover i believe there is a lot to be learned from his general philosophy and application of patience. Udine does not have the holy grail, nor does anyone. Forex is a hard business...I don't believe it's constructive to attack those who offer any ideas for free.

It seems that pj9999' thread and intentions have been taken out of context. Some facts:

1. Udine has posted a bunch of his personal rules.
2. He stated that he had doubled TWO demo accounts within 6 months by using the "rules".
3. He stated that he had been making a generous living by following the rules.

And all of these were/might be true.
______________________________________________________________________

But what was the HIDDEN message which had caught on fire...?? (There must have been a "message" to start a blog....)

Well, it was for many and for me: "If you were following the rules (and do the burpees for your mistakes) you have a good chance to replicate my results". THAT HIDDEN, MISLEADING MESSAGE what PJ9999's and MY PROBLEM is!

As it has turned out (MUCH LATER) when Udine has conveinently left out some losing trades announcing it after the facts ("I did not take this trade because blah, blah, blah...)

So then we have an important MORAL QUESTION: Why does Udine announce the signals HE DID NOT TAKE only AFTER THE TRADE IS OVER (usually in loss)????

I have a few guesses why, but I won't go there... Most people can have a good idea why he announces "not taken" trades only after the facts, when those trades turn out to be losers...

Well, the "Rules" need simply too many additional discretionary elements, which should have been disclosed ON THE FIRST PAGE. Udine has failed to do that, which is the reason this thread was born. Not more, not less.

Most importantly: this thread is not about discrediting and devaluating DISCRETIONARY trading and traders. But it seems that many people like to pick a fight by taking the intended statements out of context.

What's with all this anger expressed towards OP. I see a lot of `if you don't like it, move on', yet those that say that fail to follow their on advise. This is a thread just like any other on this forum. If you don't agree, move on. OP is entitled to his opinion just like any other member. On the other hand, if you are open to a debate, provide some arguments sustaining your premises.

Still with "The Rules must be set in stone".
Good luck with that guys. Aint gonna happen. Not in this century and not in the next.
You guys haven't read this thread and I kinda doubt you read the other one either.
(And by 'read'... I mean 'comprehend')

Why bother

Ok firstly, he told everyone to demo trade first... if you had done that you may have realised there may be more to it than just 'following the rules' and make one of two choices.

(a) the method isn't for you and move on, or
(b) continue trading the method to the rules applying your own judgement to your trades and see how that pans out, if successful, great, if not see option (a).

Also why is it Udine's responsibility to state that your own discretion is advised? He said to follow his rules, to me, it goes without saying that discretion is advised - I didn't need to hear it from him. Perhaps his method isn't for the newbies who just enter the market blindly because price crosses a line, but for traders who understand the market.

All these beginners come in here expecting to be hand fed every tiny piece of information and expect to retire off all the cash they're going to make from it, but then are so quick to point the finger when it doesn't work out.

I mean, is it not common sense that if you're trading psychological lines to have just a tiny bit of your own input to decide if a trade is viable or not? It's like Forex 101 - support and resistance - but because the rules say to take a short at the 00 line I'll take the trade anyway, but not worry that it's sitting at major support area.

OK Guru,

I will concede one single point you make, well half concede it anyway. Perhaps Udine should have been more clear on the 1st page that his rules were not applied to every single time the price crosses a line. But as i said before, it takes about 20 minutes and less than 10 pages in to the thread before you see that he does "pick his battles" as he puts it. SO, immediately you can deduce that, as with any system, you need to know when not to trade.

But i would say that it's pretty lazy to hope for every single detail of any system to be outlined on page one. He says do your homework, and i agree. Reading a few pages should not be too much too ask. So if this 1st page omission is your key gripe, then I'm afraid it's not a good one.

And again i will say, do something constructive...help people yourself if you have all these moral objections to Udine's thread.

On the subject of losses, clearly you have not read the whole thread...he does post losses. He does not take every single entry, as some others do, so is it not logical that he would have less to post? And why should he put up every single trade? How does it help us? It wont make my balance change in the slightest. Again, he has only outlined an idea, not given us a new bible. He does not claim to be the messiah.

On your other issues...let me try to understand you clearly....
You are implying that there is some HIDDEN message, and or agenda behind his thread?
The thread is 781 pages, 15,000 posts in. So far, Udine has asked for nothing. And, he is there offering support to those who participate daily.
I fail to see a subversive element. If you have more to say, or some theory I'd love to hear it but so far all i see is destructive criticism and speculation of agenda. Udine never pushed a broker, nor did he even say go live until you are CONSISTENT. So, if it's useless as you say, then no one will ever go live right?

And personally, i have no anger towards you or pj9999. The reason i took issue with this thread is that first, the title is combative, and confronting. Feel free to have your opinions, voice them on his thread if you will, but dedicating a whole thread to try to discredit someone who has shared an idea, and asked for nothing to me is a bit off. And done so under the pretense of somehow "saving newbies" form pitfalls is plain ridiculous. As i said in an earlier post, there is nothing to be lost in looking at any system, and none of us should tell newbies, or anyone what they should and shouldn't do.

Second, you say you are not having a go at discretionary traders...but isn't that the whole reason you are attacking Udine's thread? Because of the discretionary omissions he made?
How can he quantify discretion? It comes with experience and analysis. And, it won't always be right. I for one have taken trades Udine did not, which won. But my guess is he won't lose sleep over it, nor will I for the ones i sit out according to my analysis. And that is why i believe this thread is unhelpful to new traders.
They should learn that there is more to trading profitably than robotic entries.

This pointless junk thread still going? Guess it just shows who spends time actually trading, and who doesn't.

Ya'll need to take this to Facebook. You know, where the rest of the kiddies play.

Oh some of us are multitasking.. personally I'm riding out the EA long with a few positions from 1.4410

Udines spends so much time posting his trades after the event why not simply guide rookies by way of explaining if A+ B happens i will take the eur/jpy at .400 level.............Quite simple and it would take the same amount of time...
Trades to be taken at your own discretion...Come on really,this should have been stated on the first page...
So basically you need to follow all the rules and then add more rules




AGAIN WHO HAS MADE CONSISTENT PROFITS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS

+1.


Nobody is forcing you to trade Udine's system. He's laid it out and encouraged people to start on demo. If it doesn't work for you move on, if you see the potential go with it. Simple really. Who cares if he is telling the truth or bullshitting? Test it out on demo and see for yourself.

You mean losing money....share your great expertise you seem to have a lot of experience...

Seems like you want a signal service so you can take the trades blindly and blame the other if one is failing.
Maybe ask Udine if he's willing to sell you his trades? Then he will for sure give you his entries before. But with this you will never become a trader.

AGAIN WHO HAS MADE CONSISTENT PROFITS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS


As stated in an earlier post, i am a touch under 6% gain since 18th June, including all errors, and execution issues. That is net result after coms.

I only risk 1% per trade, which is half of Udine's risk.

I also don't use the trailing stops as he does, and recently, suffered as a result.

I don't trade it this month, for pretty much the same reasons as Udine with my own experience added in.

More importantly, my decisions on trades in the last 3 weeks of July mirrored Udine's trades almost exactly....even with his posting after the fact.
I only took one trade he did not, but as i stated, my decision not to use trailing stops made me suffer a little in terms of results.

So, i am still a little clumsy, I don't use the system as he laid out......Yet still I'm positive.

SO, given that i AM positive, and i have only seen Udine's trades after the fact, has his thread been useless?!
You seem to be looking to be spoon fed profits. Udine, nor anyone else will do that. Udine said he won't spoon feed, and that the way we should all develop is to learn to make better decisions, be it in this idea, or any others.

I still fail to see the logic of dedicating a thread to discredit an idea...so many system threads on here are absolutely unprofitable, yet i don't see this type of retaliation.

For my part, i would rather learn my own way than basically asking for a free signal providing service.
As the old, saying goes... "Give a man a fish......."

@ pj9999

Allow me to ask you a simple question please, and be sure that I have no axe to grind either with you or Udine. I would like you to succeed

How long have you been trading?

Please answer honestly.....doesn't matter if it's 2 years, 2 months or 2 weeks....

Another question: Why does Udine not teach his followers about his "discretionary pearls"...?

For example, a brief Price Action analysis about why a "by-the-rule trade" is not taken would be a nice gesture. Maybe once a day. Just two sentences. Before the trades are triggered. NOT AFTER. After a losing trade anybody can be very wise about why that specific signal had not been taken...

If he is so proud of his 200+ followers that he had to tell about it to waitresses in cafes he usually trades, he should take some responsibility and EDUCATE those followers about his "discretionary wisdom", not just watch them failing with his rules and announce after most losers: "Nah, I did not take that." I have never seen him announcing after a "by-the-rule" winner that "Nah, I did not take that." He only does not take the loser ones... Of course! Pathetic...

I know, he has no obligation to educate anybody, but it is simply cruel towards his discliples.

@albchr Personally I have time to express my opinion here, as my bots are doing the job 24/5. Even when I play tennis, watch movies, travel or sleep. Especially the last one, as there is nothing better than cornering the market in my sleep...