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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #2,201
  • Edited 8:18pm Aug 6, 2014 12:01pm | Edited 8:18pm
Hello
Quoting Rap Skallion
.
,
Quoting nanningbob
.
,
Quoting hanover
.
,
Quoting Bilstein
.
and all members in the thread |

Greetings, I am sure you will be doing excellent as of now |

Based on postings in the thread, I have prepared a list of Pairs to trade.
I would like that you check the following link, and enter the sequence of 28 Pairs to trade with |

As of Now, I will be updating the High and Low of 1 year,
so we will a record on the pip movement and funds needed in account to have all time profits.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I prefer to open a thread on this discussion |

Thanks,
Prachait
Prachait Saxena
  • #2,202
  • Aug 7, 2014 9:50am Aug 7, 2014 9:50am
These are the 24 pairs I trade.

"AUDCAD,AUDCHF,AUDJPY,AUDNZD,AUDUSD,
CADJPY,CHFJPY
,EURAUD,EURCAD,EURJPY,EURNZD,EURUSD,
GBPAUD,GBPCAD,GBPCHF,GBPJPY,GBPNZD,GBPUSD
,NZDCHF,NZDJPY,NZDUSD,
USDCAD,USDCHF,USDJPY";

aud 6 crosses
cad 5 crosses
chf 5 crosses
eur 5 crosses
gbp 6 crosses
jpy 6 crosse
nzd 6 crosses
usd 6 crosses

I dont trade eur/chf and eur/gbp for lack of volatility and seldom trade aud/cad and aud/nzd for the same reason.

My favorite cross pair to trade is the nzd and seems to be the easiest for me to read. That is because it follows the AUD 80% of the time. So when I see the AUD pairs go up I know the NZD will go up a couple of days later. If AUD goes down then NZD will go down with it a couple of days later. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are very volatile pairs and can get a ton of pips on those two so I often trade them.
  • #2,203
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:18am Aug 7, 2014 10:18am
Quoting prachait
Hello {quote} , {quote}, {quote} , {quote} and all members in the thread | Greetings, I am sure you will be doing excellent as of now | Based on postings in the thread, I have prepared a list of Pairs to trade. I would like that you check the following link, and enter the sequence of 28 Pairs to trade with | As of Now, I will be updating the High and Low of 1 year, so we will a record on the pip movement and funds needed in account to have all time profits. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing...
The people you have chosen to follow are accurate in the pairs they choose. Basically, I trade every combination of USD, JPY, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD, GBP, EUR and JPY. That comes out to 28 pairs.

You are on the right track, you have found trade management. It comes down to triggers after that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,204
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:28am Aug 7, 2014 10:28am
Quoting nanningbob
These are the 24 pairs I trade. aud 6 crosses cad 5 crosses chf 5 crosses eur 5 crosses gbp 6 crosses jpy 6 crosse nzd 6 crosses usd 6 crosses My favorite cross pair to trade is the nzd and seems to be the easiest for me to read. That is because it follows the AUD 80% of the time. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are very volatile pairs and can get a ton of pips on those two so I often trade them.
Thanks for sharing the information.
I updated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
[The excel is for everyone use, learning and understanding ]

based on your input |

Questions:
1: What do you mean by "Crosses"
2: How many Currency Pair you trade at ONE TIME , All 24 ?
3: I believe the lot size for all order of 24 pairs will be 0.01. Am i saying appropriate ?
4: How many NUMBER OF ORDERS you open at a given point of time ?
5: What is the leverage your maintain for account, my personal view is 50:1 ?

Looking for the answers from your end |
I have more questions for you, will ask soon |

Thanks, Prachait
Prachait Saxena
  • #2,205
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:34am Aug 7, 2014 10:34am
Quoting prachait
{quote} Thanks for sharing the information. I updated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing [The excel is for everyone use, learning and understanding ] based on your input | Questions: 1: What do you mean by "Crosses" 2: How many Currency Pair you trade at ONE TIME , All 24 ? 3: I believe the lot size for all order of 24 pairs will be 0.01. Am i saying appropriate ? 4: How many NUMBER OF ORDERS you open at a given point of time ? 5: What is the leverage your maintain for...
For me, a dime a pip for that many pairs is way, way to high. But I am paranoid.

I have been around for central bank interventions. If you live through that, it will change your trading life!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,206
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:38am Aug 7, 2014 10:38am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} For me, a dime a pip for that many pairs is way, way to high. But I am paranoid. I have been around for central bank interventions. If you live through that, it will change your trading life!
Second that one! LOL
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #2,207
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:40am Aug 7, 2014 10:40am
Quoting aed71
{quote}Stops and generally tight stops are often being stopped by big guys. The number of stops even small ones could kill all the strategy ( I have tested in 10 years time and it did). If I put the stops to 30-50pips (dynamic) some years the drawdown becomes very high and you go down from your the initial balance. When I set it 70pips it did not go down too much and it became profitable.
Would you be kindly letting me know which pair you trade with 70 pip SL? That kind of information can only come out of experience and a newbie like me lack of it.

Thanks
  • #2,208
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:56am Aug 7, 2014 10:56am
Quoting nanningbob
{quote} To trade without a SL does not mean to hold onto trades ad infinitum. I do keep trading and though a pair may go into DD I still make profits on the retracements.I also follow the long term trend as shown on the monthly and weekly charts. As long as I see that long term trend I will hang in a group of trades. In other words there is a system behind the trading. Most traders dont know how to trade high end charts and get burned by not checking with them. I basically close trades when the direction changes but until then I will stay in there...
Are you saying that there should be a solid strategy/ method behind a no SL trading? And that strategy should be based on MN and W1 timeframe?
  • #2,209
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:49pm Aug 7, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting banglubos
{quote} Would you be kindly letting me know which pair you trade with 70 pip SL? That kind of information can only come out of experience and a newbie like me lack of it. Thanks
Hi,

I've tested in EURUSD between 2003 and 2013.

I should say that it also depends on your strategy. In my system (breakout strategy), with tight stoploss and if the market is not trending, I was stopping out quite a lot. I'm also using a kind of trailing stop system (in the positive territory) when I catch 25pips profit I was moving stoploss from -70pip to +5PIP. So either market fluctuates too much, if it goes in my way (at least 25 pips) I was doing at least 5pips profit (of course there are situations that you make even more that 100pips if the market trends fast). So compare reaching to 25pips vs to -70pips. If your technical strategy is good enough (high probable) you some how eliminate the market noise!

The big question is: SUM OF (the probability of reaching 25pips and guarantee the 5 pip profit + the probability of making 5+ profits) vs ( the probability of hitting -70 pip stoploss)

If the left part of the equation's probability and absolute profit is higher in all conditions & pairs (say 10 years even more), that this is a kind of cash machine...
If u want to be successful, u must respect one rule: Never lie to yourself.
  • #2,210
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:53pm Aug 7, 2014 1:53pm
I trade without stoploss with multiple accounts...

Do your R/R analysis correct, and you won't have a problem.

check my trade explorer (this one is demo)
  • #2,211
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:04pm Aug 7, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting prachait
Hello {quote} , {quote}, {quote} , {quote} and all members in the thread | Greetings, I am sure you will be doing excellent as of now | Based on postings in the thread, I have prepared a list of Pairs to trade. I would like that you check the following link, and enter the sequence of 28 Pairs to trade with | As of Now, I will be updating the High and Low of 1 year, so we will a record on the pip movement and funds needed in account to have all time profits. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing...
This is my take, I virtually trade every major pair out there -- just not at the same time (if I can help it). (By "major," I mean EUR & CHF, GBP, USD, JPY, NZD, and AUD; I don't monkey with exotics). I lump EUR and CHF together since they are so closely correlated ... .

For example, if I already have an open position in a Yen cross, I try not to take another position in a Yen cross at the same time, unless that cross has a substantially different trajectory than the rest. Yen movement naturally will affect all the Yen crosses in the same way at the same time; it can amplify your gains, but it can also amplify your losses. Naturally, if you understand the amplification effects of having multiple Yen crosses open at the same time, you can adjust your lot sizes to accommodate that fact, but I just generally prefer not having to think that much and like to keep all my lot sizes for all my trades the same size. For similar reasons, I try not to expose myself too much to the USD.

However, there are always exceptions to the rule. For example, I view EUR/JPY and USD/JPY right now very differently. I am looking for short opportunities in EUR/JPY and long opportunities in USD/JPY, so I frequently have positions open in both of these pairs at the same time.

Ultimately, the idea is to try keep a balanced portfolio, as it were, of open positions by equally representing the majors in your open positions. In an ideal world, I would probably only trade something like GBP/USD, EUR or CHF/JPY, and then either AUD/CAD or NZD/CAD, since that would pretty much hit all the majors without exposing myself to amplification of movement of one currency ... .

I naturally know that this is an overly simplistic view of things ... , but, then again, I like to keep things simple.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,212
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:16pm Aug 7, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting banglubos
{quote} Are you saying that there should be a solid strategy/ method behind a no SL trading? And that strategy should be based on MN and W1 timeframe?
I use 1H and 6H time frames for trades of fairly short duration (on average). I don't think that there's any rule of thumb for what charts to use; it depends upon what kind of trader you are (day, scalp, swing, position).

I have to kind of disagree that any system should have a fixed profit target for a given trade (e.g., 70 pips) (regardless of whether it's an SL or a No SL system or strategy). That just doesn't make sense to me. Every pair has different S/R and what makes sense for one pair may not make any sense whatsoever for another. The exception to this is naturally a grid system, but even grids are set up with the last level set in reference to S/R or swing high/low (at least that's how I set mine up when I use them).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,213
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:54pm Aug 7, 2014 6:54pm
My strategy is calculating buy and sell zones, so, I run additional calcs on those zones to determine entry points and sizes.

The way my system works is in a fairly predictive manner.

I primarily trade the AUD/USD this way.

At the time of this writing, the extreme low I have on the pair is .9130

The highest low/short reversal target I've had has been .9309

So, as we approach the 9309 area with short trades open and in profit, I start to watch closer for exits and converting bias. Most of the time I exit a little early and book profits then wait a little bit before starting to enter long.

For my money management, I don't want to use more than 6% of my account, so, as price is moving down, I have a plan to enter trades all the way to the extreme low of 9130 and only use 6% with the highest volume entries at lower prices bringing the average entry lower in the process.

I generally don't "achieve" exposing the full 6%. I usually land at about 4.5% exposed. Even at this point, the distance to a margin call is more than 2500 pips.

happy to answer questions if this doesn't make sense. Sometimes I catch the bottom well, sometimes I miss the bottom/top and I'm still in good entries with good average entries of profit.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #2,214
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:18pm Aug 7, 2014 7:18pm
Thanks for sharing the information. I updated https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing [The excel is for everyone use, learning and understanding ] based on your input |
Asking questions is how you learn.
Questions: 1: What do you mean by "Crosses"
aud crosses contain the aud plus ........ aud/jpy, aud,nzd, aud/usd etc. You can see I try to keep a balanced of each major traded currency. I do this because one of my indis compares the relative strength of one currency group against the other. If I see the GBP is running stronger than the JPY, USD, and CAD. I will look for buy entrances on those pairs.

2: How many Currency Pair you trade at ONE TIME , All 24 ?
Depends on what my trading system tells me. I can sit and not trade or trade those I think make a good trade. I can have as many as 1-10 or 12 pairs going at once. When the market is moving hot on some pair, like JPY last year, I was trading every JPY cross. I did very little trading in the other pairs. Same thing in 2011 when the euro was moving. I traded the euro and little of anything else. When something is not moving across the board then I will trade pairs that meet my trade criteria. I have been trading the NZD the most since about last Nov.
3: I believe the lot size for all order of 24 pairs will be 0.01. Am i saying appropriate ?
Only as a ratio. I have a large amount of money in my account so if I have 10K my lot size will be ten or twenty cents. 50k I will trade 50 cents to 1.00 size lots. If I have 100k my lot size will be one or two dollars. I know guys with million dollars in their account and they will trade ten or twenty dollar lot sizes. That is where I learned my ratios from. That doesnt mean there arent traders who trade bigger but the few I knew that consistently made money were around those ratios.

4: How many NUMBER OF ORDERS you open at a given point of time ?
See answer above. However, I can be running anywhere from 20-60 pairs at a time. I will multiple level trade when the time is right. You catch a strong move and you add to your winnings by adding to your winners when the market is moving. This year has been a range year so far so I have not run many multiple positions. I also will add postions to a losing position if I think the long term fundamental is right. For example the NZD interest rate is 1% or higher than everyone elses. So I will collect interest on that one while I wait for it to move back up. Eventually those that like to carry trade will get back into the market and it will go back up.
5: What is the leverage your maintain for account, my personal view is 50:1 ?
I am at 25:1 on most 50:1 on a handful. I want to get to 20:1 but I am in flux right now because IBFX has started strictly enforcing FIFO and I am a multiple level trader. That has cost me over 500 pips so far this week and I am ticked. Not IBFX fault but govt. regulations. So I have to decide if I want to trade a foreign broker, change my trading style, or just manage other's accounts and not do personal trading.

Looking for the answers from your end | I have more questions for you, will ask soon | Thanks, Prachait

See answers above.
  • #2,215
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:28pm Aug 7, 2014 7:28pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} For me, a dime a pip for that many pairs is way, way to high. But I am paranoid. I have been around for central bank interventions. If you live through that, it will change your trading life!
You also have to remember the .01 is a penny a pip with other brokers. That is why I say ten cents and 20 cents instead of .01 lots so as not to create confusion.
  • #2,216
  • Edited 7:45pm Aug 7, 2014 7:34pm | Edited 7:45pm
Quoting banglubos
{quote} Are you saying that there should be a solid strategy/ method behind a no SL trading? And that strategy should be based on MN and W1 timeframe?
Yes that is how I trade. If you look at any pair on a monthly chart you will see in a 1 year period a currency will change directions 1-3 times in a year. Put a 2 or 3 MA shifted 1 on a monthly chart and see how many times a year price crosses that line and you will see what I mean. Also notice that most candles are full bodied with short wicks on the bottom and top most months. Once a currency gets moving in a month it has a tendency to stay in that direction for the month. Knowing the long term movement of a currency keeps you form running on a correction. So buy the dips and sell the rallies.

I close losing trades for 4 reasons.

1. After entering them I see I dont like the trade and its gone.
2. The long term fundamental has changed or price has reversed on the monthly or weekly charts.
3. I am over-trading, my percent of balance in play of my account is getting too low showing I have too many trades going.
4. My DD is between 10 - 20% and I dont want it to get bigger. I may close 3-7% of my losers to keep my overall account balance in my safety zone.
  • #2,217
  • Aug 7, 2014 9:24pm Aug 7, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
My strategy is calculating buy and sell zones, so, I run additional calcs on those zones to determine entry points and sizes. The way my system works is in a fairly predictive manner. I primarily trade the AUD/USD this way. At the time of this writing, the extreme low I have on the pair is .9130 The highest low/short reversal target I've had has been .9309 So, as we approach the 9309 area with short trades open and in profit, I start to watch closer for exits and converting bias. Most of the time I exit a little early and book profits then wait...
I'm glad to see that I'm not alone in wanting to not expose more than 10% and, in fact, less than that. I do go a little bit crazy from time to time (currently I'm at 12% and it's making me nervous). To a certain extent for me it is being comfortable with the exposure ... . I find I'm a little less jittery and prone to stare at my open positions with <10% ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #2,218
  • Aug 7, 2014 9:28pm Aug 7, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm glad to see that I'm not alone in wanting to not expose more than 10% and, in fact, less than that. I do go a little bit crazy from time to time (currently I'm at 12% and it's making me nervous). To a certain extent for me it is being comfortable with the exposure ... . I find I'm a little less jittery and prone to stare at my open positions with <10% ... .
depending on pairs you're trading, take an honest look at: free margin / value per pip = (number of pips to margin call)

Another part of my trading system is in depth analysis of weekly range on AUD/USD, and because of this analysis, I mostly trade only this pair...

All of this together builds confidence levels in trading decisions.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #2,219
  • Aug 8, 2014 1:05am Aug 8, 2014 1:05am
What I did this week:
%change in equity:-1%
%change in balance:-2%
%change in P/L:-04% (good)
Margin Level %: 566.63(room for larger entries)
no of weeks since last taking a loss:0
no of trades open:15
explanation of closed trades:fifo rules compell me to adjust:
  • #2,220
  • Aug 8, 2014 9:19pm Aug 8, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting nanningbob
{quote} Yes that is how I trade. If you look at any pair on a monthly chart you will see in a 1 year period a currency will change directions 1-3 times in a year. Put a 2 or 3 MA shifted 1 on a monthly chart and see how many times a year price crosses that line and you will see what I mean. Also notice that most candles are full bodied with short wicks on the bottom and top most months. Once a currency gets moving in a month it has a tendency to stay in that direction for the month. Knowing the long term movement of a currency keeps you form running...
Thank you, nanningbob. You've just convinced me I'm on the right track. And I'll do your advice.
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