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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #131,701
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:21pm Aug 7, 2014 1:21pm
Hi Mike, you dont worry about this being a pin bar at all as opposed to a wick play? im guessing if you dont its because the price closed higher on the 'pin bar' ?
  • #131,702
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:14pm Aug 7, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} great D We had a wick play bar yesterday that was a fantastic buy trade in itself. I used it to know that this trade was still valid as price should push through that wick Here was a video I did for the guest side on wicks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIQlZyloXMM now we need to try to close above this FTA(red box) and then onto the target becomes a much better probability. 70% of stop reduced but likely more at the end of the day for me Best Mike {image}
Really enjoying watching this trade play out from the sidelines.

Wick plays are a new concept to me. I had never thought about playing them until I met you fellas. Mike I just wanted to mention that your wick play thread on the PF is gold man.

I like how not only can you trade them as a setup, but also use it for trade management to keep you in a trade as you're doing now.

Quoting contrails
{quote} I am in the AUDNZD trade as well. This pair is a top favorite of mine. Looking back at this pair's history, it looks that most free flowing pair to me. In other words, it rarely forms those congestion boxes that I do not particularly like.
I agree with you contrails. However, in terms of congestion boxes though, since we're in a flag then we are technically in consolidation. Despite this, the pair still moves in a way with lots of tradable space which is good.

I've got a soft spot for this pair as my best trade with the longest runner was a short I took on the AUDNZD last year. However, I try not to be coloured by past positive experiences on a pair when I look at a chart. That said, I have been finding good, clear price action and moves on the AUDNZD, USDCNH and a number of the futures indices this year.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,703
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:34pm Aug 7, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting DanTheFox
Hi Mike, you dont worry about this being a pin bar at all as opposed to a wick play? im guessing if you dont its because the price closed higher on the 'pin bar' ?
Hey Dan

That's the key here. That the bar did NOT close as a pinbar but rather closed above the resistance area that should act as support. The shows who is in control. Sellers pushed price down from a logical point(the fta or redbox on my chart) BUT the key is the sellers did not have enough power to close price below the key area of the BRN(previous resistance). This then means sell orders were absorbed creating our wick making a logical path of least resistance back through that wick. This is why bar closes are SO important, of course coupled with the location

Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
  • #131,704
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:35pm Aug 7, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting FxLester
{quote} Really enjoying watching this trade play out from the sidelines. Wick plays are a new concept to me. I had never thought about playing them until I met you fellas. Mike I just wanted to mention that your wick play thread on the PF is gold man. I like how not only can you trade them as a setup, but also use it for trade management to keep you in a trade as you're doing now. {quote} I agree with you contrails. However, in terms of congestion boxes though, since we're in a flag then we are technically in consolidation. Despite this, the pair...
thanks Lester

Yes understanding the orderflow that creates our bars is great not just for entries but knowing when to get out of a trade. For example if that bar did close as a pinbar and back under that resistance point sellers are showing control and i'd have jumped out for a small loss. It's like a puzzle but the clues are their for us!

Thanks again for your kind words
Mike
  • #131,705
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:45pm Aug 7, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} thanks Lester Yes understanding the orderflow that creates our bars is great not just for entries but knowing when to get out of a trade. For example if that bar did close as a pinbar and back under that resistance point sellers are showing control and i'd have jumped out for a small loss. It's like a puzzle but the clues are their for us! Thanks again for your kind words Mike
That's the key there. It helps us cut losses and let the runners run. If Jarroo's watching this pair (miss that guy) he probably traded the push up and the bounce down - couple of picture perfect levels for his method.
  • #131,706
  • Aug 7, 2014 3:09pm Aug 7, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting dvimix
{quote} Hi doerpn! Appreciate your help. I did alert on 93.80, so if price return to it, I shall get SMS and move stop to BE.
Have a nice day
  • #131,707
  • Aug 7, 2014 3:23pm Aug 7, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} great D We had a wick play bar yesterday that was a fantastic buy trade in itself. I used it to know that this trade was still valid as price should push through that wick Here was a video I did for the guest side on wicks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIQlZyloXMM now we need to try to close above this FTA(red box) and then onto the target becomes a much better probability. 70% of stop reduced but likely more at the end of the day for me Best Mike {image}
Learning so much from you, Mike!
Have a nice day
  • #131,708
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:06pm Aug 7, 2014 7:06pm
Quoting Donkey
{quote} That's the key there. It helps us cut losses and let the runners run. If Jarroo's watching this pair (miss that guy) he probably traded the push up and the bounce down - couple of picture perfect levels for his method.
absolutely D

Most emails I get from people have certain themes. One email I ALWAYS get nearly once a day is "exits are where I struggle the most" . I know it all too well cause I used to think. If only I knew how to exit I could figure out trading. The real truth is exits are the same as entries. It's all blended. It's all about reading the information we have and evaluating how it fits with out entry and story.

Hope all is well sir, i certainly miss J too, hope hes ok wherever he is

Mike
  • #131,709
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:07pm Aug 7, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Learning so much from you, Mike!
just sharing what I can

Thanks D

Mike
  • #131,710
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:19pm Aug 7, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} great D We had a wick play bar yesterday that was a fantastic buy trade in itself. I used it to know that this trade was still valid as price should push through that wick Here was a video I did for the guest side on wicks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIQlZyloXMM now we need to try to close above this FTA(red box) and then onto the target becomes a much better probability. 70% of stop reduced but likely more at the end of the day for me Best Mike {image}
I've reduced my stop even more. THis is exactly that dynamic risk to reward I spoke about a few posts back and lester was speaking about with me

Notice i've still kept my trade integrity in tact. By reducing my stop I always think where does this trade no longer make sense? I've reduced my stop to under the wick bar low but what I want is to see if price can retest that bar high so I can reduce it more or get to breakeven. Notice the potential reward to my risk now. This is a situation i continuously try to get in because if you are picky about your entries these work out in the long run and your losses are SMALL. When you know your loss is small your worry for your trades go away and you maintain a logical mindset. This is how you cut losses but let profits run. You always hear that cliche. And most trading cliches have merit but are often never explained in practical terms. This is hands down why this thread is still running nearly a decade later and the group has continued success because it's practical stuff
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  • #131,711
  • Aug 7, 2014 9:14pm Aug 7, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} I've reduced my stop even more. THis is exactly that dynamic risk to reward I spoke about a few posts back and lester was speaking about with me Notice i've still kept my trade integrity in tact. By reducing my stop I always think where does this trade no longer make sense? I've reduced my stop to under the wick bar low but what I want is to see if price can retest that bar high so I can reduce it more or get to breakeven. Notice the potential reward to my risk now. This is a situation i continuously try to get in because if you are picky...
now at breakeven
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  • #131,712
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:04pm Aug 7, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} now at breakeven {image}
Awesome trade management. Perfect example of not going BE too early. If you had gone BE at the first touch of FTA (like many do) you would have been stopped out before this push through FTA. Thanks for taking us along on this one as it plays out!!!
  • #131,713
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:26pm Aug 7, 2014 10:26pm
Quoting nc_trader
I think EUR/USD is at a key support level But this chart is not very clean, the support zone is not very clear. {image}
I agree. Looking at weekly though (first chart) the large gap up and the weekly low seem to be forming the support. I try not to be to biased, but I think that the level will eventually break and expose 1.3100. Would love to see the bulls push price back up to around 1.3500 and some bearish PA form there.

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  • #131,714
  • Aug 7, 2014 11:19pm Aug 7, 2014 11:19pm
Quoting Donkey
{quote} I agree. Looking at weekly though (first chart) the large gap up and the weekly low seem to be forming the support. I try not to be to biased, but I think that the level will eventually break and expose 1.3100. Would love to see the bulls push price back up to around 1.3500 and some bearish PA form there. {image} {image}
Thanks for sharing the chart man! That would make a solid story. I love first retests of broken support, new resistance. Depending on how we retrace up, it would hopefully create some nice space which would be great. I'll be looking for bearing PA on all TF's there as well.
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  • #131,715
  • Aug 8, 2014 1:29am Aug 8, 2014 1:29am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} now at breakeven {image}
How do u like this one ,Mike? Almost the same story. Will ask God some PA below 10.50
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If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #131,716
  • Aug 8, 2014 2:21am Aug 8, 2014 2:21am
wait...in two hours if will be PB, think to buy.
also interesting area near 115 if price will go there
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  • #131,717
  • Aug 8, 2014 2:59am Aug 8, 2014 2:59am
Quoting dvimix
wait...in two hours if will be PB, think to buy. also interesting area near 115 if price will go there {image}
Hi Dvimix,

I would personally pass on this. Here's my take:

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Really close wedge of consolidation to the left that you're trading directly into and a slightly less than obvious reversal area I have marked out.

I know I took a very similar setup yesterday here on the EJ pair:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post7656958

When I took that trade yesterday, it was a very risky trade (and I acknowledged that in my analysis). The trade only worked out for me to give me some decent profit because I was extremely conservative by scaling out early as marked and moving my stop very aggressively. If you look at my trade from yesterday, price moved to my first area almost to the pip before reversing. I was able to get some quick profit with only a few minutes of minimal drawdown. The rest of my position got stopped at break-even.

The setup I have linked is very similar to this one (not surprising as they are quite correlated). My concern is that you may be ignoring some clear areas where price may easily reverse. Lastly, I think your targets may be a little too optimistic given the counter-trend and otherwise consolidated market that we are in right now. Again, just my opinion, but please do take a look at my EJ trade from yesterday as it is really quite similar.

Hope you're trading safely on this one!
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,718
  • Aug 8, 2014 3:27am Aug 8, 2014 3:27am
Quoting FxLester
{quote} Hi Dvimix, I would personally pass on this. Here's my take:
Hi FxLester! Im glad to read your answer. Ok, I shall pass it, especially on this week I have closed my trade on CadJpy with profit of 70 pips without partial profit. So less we trade - better! I have question : wick lows and highs are the same Mike`s wick bars in his posts and video? Now I am at job so at home I shall read about your EJ trade
  • #131,719
  • Aug 8, 2014 3:28am Aug 8, 2014 3:28am
hi all
having trouble uploading charts today but did anyone take the EURUSD pinbar a few days before (on the daily)
i cant think of reasons not to have taken it....
  • #131,720
  • Aug 8, 2014 3:31am Aug 8, 2014 3:31am
Hey All! Just thought I'd update on one of my forecasts from about a week or so ago but I can't find the exact post on FF as this thread moves so fast!

However, my original analysis was here and we've played out as I described:
http://www.fxpep.com/eur-gbp-analysis-and-forecast/

Just booked some profits and B/E on the rest. Here's a chart with some notes:
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I had a few emails about it when I posted it so I know some of you guys were in on this. Hope you're at safety now if you followed!
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
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