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[LOS] London Open Strategy 25 replies

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London Open Strategy

  • #201
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:09am Aug 7, 2014 6:09am
I noticed it took around 10 minutes to move 3 pips either way after the London open so I stayed on the sidelines (i.e. bottled it ).

Looks like there were pips to be scalped, but it seems that price action inertia during the opening minutes after 8am UK time may be inauspicious for big moves. Is that a fair assessment?
  • #202
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:06am Aug 7, 2014 7:06am
Well today was one of those days..... they are often, which is why making money isn't as easy as just whacking a 15EMA on a chart and trading in the opposite direction.

I don't think today was an easy call, as someone mentioned, and we all know that on another day it could have gone the other way because 'somebody said something' into a microphone.

No grail here, we must remain humble in this market.

Here are my thoughts numbered on the chart why I entered short today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU LON 07082014.png Size: 31 KB


1- The overnight session although it managed to break yhigh has failed to hold onto it. The last test in the red zone is where buyers have given up.

2- Frankfurt has come in hard short and broken TL's and previous lows. All stops under that range taken out. USDCHF finding support off of the Daily open causing a strong breakout of a range.

3- This is where the pressure is on. The EMA is down here but the momentum coming into the Open is bullish and leaving tails, we want to fade this momentum. Opens are not always reversals, sometimes we need to see if it's in the middle of a pullback in a larger wave. USDCHF is at a perfect price for a bounce.

4- This is our backline for a short, above this and we're in the shit. Trendline retest, previous swing retest, Daily open. USDCHF sitting on support, we need $ strength to come in now or we're toast.

5- All resistance holds and we pass the LO, first obstacle Frankfurt low holds for 30mins, then down for a bounce off Daily pivot which is where our TP is waiting. USDCHF confirming our target with a nice support/resistance retest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU LON 07082014 pt2.png Size: 41 KB


Another +10 in the piptin but that one had me nervous. In what has turned out to be a range day I think that's not to bad a result.

9 winners in a row
  • #203
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:13am Aug 7, 2014 7:13am
Quoting pipster1
{quote} Hey Quidsey: Here is a screen shot of the charts a group I trade with use who trade European Market open (EOVM trade). Very similar to what you are doing they use tick charts. Usually good for a trade a day and win rate is around 70% I normally don't trade it because it is too early for me. I took a EU short today, went break even. A very similar trade occurs after US red news clears and is usually for a fair amount of pips. It is generally what I trade. Cheers and thanks for the thread {image}
Hey great thx, tick charts wow.... hardcore

Feel free to post trades and any insights pipster, welcome.
  • #204
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:17am Aug 7, 2014 7:17am
Quoting culik_gpl
{quote} Hi,Quidsey, better to attach the indi. Because when I download one by googling, your template doesnt load the indi. Maybe because of different version or something. Thank you.
Yeah, I was being lazy

Check out the 'paper clip' at the top there catextract89 has posted it.
  • #205
  • Aug 7, 2014 7:20am Aug 7, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Patmontes
gained 5pips on the Long trade today at the open.. too bad closed 50% at TP, then other 50% hit BE.
could have been worse mate.
  • #206
  • Edited 12:37pm Aug 7, 2014 7:29am | Edited 12:37pm
Quoting Mariner7
I noticed it took around 10 minutes to move 3 pips either way after the London open so I stayed on the sidelines (i.e. bottled it ). Looks like there were pips to be scalped, but it seems that price action inertia during the opening minutes after 8am UK time may be inauspicious for big moves. Is that a fair assessment?
That may well be true but ideas like this need to be put down in the journal and toted up from time to time to give a definitive answer.

Personally I've not noticed it but then again I've not been looking.

Edit: Reading this again I should make clear that obviously slow movement on the open is a cause for concern, we need a momentum wave to ride, but there can often be a 'lull' before it kicks off. If the 'inertia' continues into the 3rd and 4th candle then that's when I'd be anxious.

Sidelines is a position mate if you're not sure, that's fine.
  • #207
  • Aug 7, 2014 8:32am Aug 7, 2014 8:32am
Todays trade:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU LON 07082014.png Size: 29 KB
  • #208
  • Aug 7, 2014 11:34am Aug 7, 2014 11:34am
Hi Quidsey,

I wondered why sometimes I have a different visual perspective regarding the EMA15 when looking at your posted charts and mine. Then I looked more closely and observed that your i-ParamonWorkTime indicator band actually includes the London 8:00 to 8:05 bar (4 bars instead of 3). So, in looking back over previous trades for the EMA15 direction and viewing the right side of your bands, there is 1/3rd more room for the EMA15 to change direction and alter the trade decision. For example, if you take this morning's trade, your 4 bar band resembles a "U" which may influence a sell decision. My 3 bar band was virtually flat which precluded a trade for me.

I also realize that @ London 8:00 the additional bar would probably not affect an immediate decision to trade, but in retrospect, looking back at previous trades can be confusing because we are likely looking at the entire zone to determine winning setups and profitability.

Thanks for all your help!
BC2
  • #209
  • Aug 7, 2014 12:35pm Aug 7, 2014 12:35pm
Hey everybody, my coder made a simple EA based on this strategy. Test it and find may be better inputs. For me inputs: start trade at 10:15 (instead of 10) and SL 35 pips with TP 55 pips worked much better. Please no questions on how to test and so on, all is clear, I have no time on it. Once you get good testing results just let me and the thread know. Have a good day
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 London_open_ea.ex4   5 KB | 368 downloads
  • #210
  • Aug 7, 2014 12:54pm Aug 7, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Quidsey, I wondered why sometimes I have a different visual perspective regarding the EMA15 when looking at your posted charts and mine. Then I looked more closely and observed that your i-ParamonWorkTime indicator band actually includes the London 8:00 to 8:05 bar (4 bars instead of 3). So, in looking back over previous trades for the EMA15 direction and viewing the right side of your bands, there is 1/3rd more room for the EMA15 to change direction and alter the trade decision. For example, if you take this morning's trade, your 4 bar band...
Yes looking back at MA's is tricky because that last 5min will be flipping up and down like a cats tail in real time. Glad you got it sorted.
The EMA is really just a guide, I'm not getting out the protractor to measure angles. :nerd:

The build up to the open is as important to trying to understand what's going on and whose in control. We don't have volume or a book in FX so we have to try and detect and deduce from other clues. The EMA is but one of those.

You're looking to make a decision on a continuation with the EMA or a reverse against. In a weeks trading we normally get both so we have to be a bit clever
  • #211
  • Aug 7, 2014 12:56pm Aug 7, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting napalc
Hey everybody, my coder made a simple EA based on this strategy. Test it and find may be better inputs. For me inputs: start trade at 10:15 (instead of 10) and SL 35 pips with TP 55 pips worked much better. Please no questions on how to test and so on, all is clear, I have no time on it. Once you get good testing results just let me and the thread know. Have a good day {file}
Thanks, I'll have a look at that.
  • #212
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:23pm Aug 7, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Yes looking back at MA's is tricky because that last 5min will be flipping up and down like a cats tail in real time. Glad you got it sorted. The EMA is really just a guide, I'm not getting out the protractor to measure angles. :nerd: The build up to the open is as important to trying to understand what's going on and whose in control. We don't have volume or a book in FX so we have to try and detect and deduce from other clues. The EMA is but one of those. You're looking to make a decision on a continuation with the EMA or a reverse against....
Hello Quidsey,
I use this MA that Show me the angles.
The Settings for 15EMA 15-1-6

Henri

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MA in Color_wAppliedPrice.ex4   10 KB | 478 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MA in Color_wAppliedPrice.mq4   5 KB | 498 downloads
  • #213
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:24pm Aug 7, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} The EMA is really just a guide, I'm not getting out the protractor to measure angles. :nerd:
  • #214
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:21pm Aug 7, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting Tanaka
{quote} Hello Quidsey, I use this MA that Show me the angles. The Settings for 15EMA 15-1-6 Henri {file} {file}
Hi, great timing Tanaka

Here's a screenshot of what it looks like if anybody is interested.

Interesting idea

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MA in colour.png Size: 30 KB
  • #215
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:49pm Aug 7, 2014 2:49pm
Hi

I think if you change the length of the moving average to 10lwma it will better represent the slope of the last few 5 min bars before the London open
Regards
  • #216
  • Aug 7, 2014 3:44pm Aug 7, 2014 3:44pm
@howard
What are the numbers for that - "10lwma" you propose ?
MAType ? + MAApliedPrice ? Instead of 15-1-6 Tanaka recommended ?
  • #217
  • Aug 7, 2014 3:55pm Aug 7, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting DerBerliner
@howard What are the numbers for that - "10lwma" you propose ? MAType ? + MAApliedPrice ? Instead of 15-1-6 Tanaka recommended ?
MA Type:
0=SMA
1=EMA
2=SMMA
3=LWMA
4=LSMA


MAAppliedPrice:
0=Close
1=open
2=high
3=low
4=median(high+low)/2
5=typical(high+low+close)/3
6=weighted(high+low+close+Close)

Henri
  • #218
  • Aug 7, 2014 4:24pm Aug 7, 2014 4:24pm
Hello Quidsey and all,

Thanks for the interesting thread.

I know news will affect PA considerably, so as an additional helper I am introducing an interesting indicator for you; attached is a zip file that contains an indicator and other necessary files for the indicator to work.

You can have ForexFactory and/or DailyFX news releases as a choice, and as you can see from the screenshots news classifications (red/orange/...) do differ. So I have these two screens showing all news (set report all to true) to gauge the probable impact on PA.

The beauty of this indicator is you can also have only relevant news showing on the chart of the pair by setting report all =false.

There are other parameters to customize the view, so play with them at your leisure.

For your convenience I have also attached two templates for each news source. Here all news are shown.

Green pips to all,
T.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-08 06_00_01-2088278549_ Excel Markets - Metatrader - Demo Account - [EURUSD.,M15].png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-08 06_00_59-2088278549_ Excel Markets - Metatrader - Demo Account - [EURUSD.,M15].png Size: 61 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl ! F Cal (DailyFX).tpl   36 KB | 367 downloads
File Type: tpl ! F Cal (ForexFactory).tpl   32 KB | 398 downloads
File Type: zip FFCalMOD_v20d1.zip   153 KB | 377 downloads
  • #219
  • Aug 7, 2014 4:41pm Aug 7, 2014 4:41pm
Additional screenshot showing the news releases ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-08 06_37_37-.png Size: 61 KB

I am showing London and NY opens in this chart.
T.

PS: My entries are not in accordance with the thread rule. I was late. Am testing ... so please ignore.
  • #220
  • Aug 7, 2014 4:53pm Aug 7, 2014 4:53pm
Thx Toppo, much appreciated.
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