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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #14,241
  • Edited 4:25am Jul 31, 2014 4:14am | Edited 4:25am
Otherwise, the most bullish of views would have it holding around 172.4/5, being the POSSIBLE top of a long term triangle.
  • #14,242
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:36am Jul 31, 2014 10:36am
So dumb! Was a 60 pip gain on my GBP/CHF sell and closed at a 7 pip loss, impatient. Switched to AUD/JPY 28 pips so far. I would have been slammed if I sold GBP/JPY as it surged 122 pips upward from 173.00, glad I stayed away. I never would have anticipated that spike but now it just looks like banks getting rid of sellers because now the market has truly turned. DJI down 189 points and 17,000 is gone.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,243
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:40pm Jul 31, 2014 12:40pm
in the next 1 hour to 12 hours, looking for an opportunity to sell for a 30 to 100 pip gain in a strong downward trend for a period of 4 to 24-48 hours with low chances of minor retracements but a strong fall overall... huge volatility and potential for nice profits but at the cost of an extremely expensive spread

that's a real shame, Temujin.... You should have just closed for your 16,000 profit or whatever it was
  • #14,244
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:56pm Jul 31, 2014 12:56pm
Hey....mens...
How 'bout that 15M w/ a 333 sma......say no more, mate.....she really goes. ( I have pictures )
  • #14,245
  • Edited 11:24am Aug 1, 2014 12:25am | Edited 11:24am
Good luck to all on the NFP in a few hours. I'm guessing the banks that move this market are planning some devious actions seeing that the DJI took a 320 point hit today. The market has ignored global event risk until this bad combination of troubled fragments is making the picture more apparent. Increasing interest rates in the U.S. coupled with geopolitical trouble, a 5 year bull market and companies lowering their guidance. The most convincing to me was Visa; no growth for the rest of the year and none the whole of 2015. Time to sell those high risk pairs and hold on through the noise. 169.00 is surely in the cards soon. Kudos MPT.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,246
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:59am Aug 1, 2014 12:59am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Hey....mens... How 'bout that 15M w/ a 333 sma......say no more, mate.....she really goes. ( I have pictures )
Ha, for me the daily charts are the "new" 15 minute. Even then they drive me crazy with these small moves, but I find that anything below daily tends to often give a false impression.

173.4/6 would appear to be a big deal. The weekly had to reclaim it and it holds thus far. On monthly charts, the previous 2 months have seen the top of the candle body sit at 173.4/6 ish and the new month just opened right on the line - as if a base is trying to form around here. The new monthly pivot opened at 173.8, which is interesting if you draw a line from 174.8 in January to where it sits right now. Last time broke up to 175, it would appear to have taken no support with it, but that might have changed.

I reckon if it reclaims 174 soon, then it continues setting up for a good show in coming days/weeks.
  • #14,247
  • Edited 1:29am Aug 1, 2014 1:07am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting Temujin
Good luck to all on the NFP in a few hours. I'm guessing the banks that move this market are planning some devious actions seeing that the DJI took a 320 point hit today. The market has ignored global event risk until this bad combination of troubled fragments is making the picture more apparent. Increasing interest rates in the U.S. coupled with geopolitical trouble, a 5 year bull market and companies lowing their guidance. The most convincing to me was Visa; no growth for the rest of the year and none the whole of 2015. Time to sell those high...
Things have changed, methinks. I'm pretty sure this thing is setting up to get all bullish. And bullish means 180+. But a hold over 174 is important - and I still don't rule out seeing a marginal new low before it climbs out. Having said that, at NFP time the arse will probably fall out of it.
  • #14,248
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:23am Aug 1, 2014 8:23am
AUD/JPY is not selling as robustly, should have went with the widow maker, losing the 173.00 handle now. The only thing I'm seeing to get in the way of the drubbing is the 100 EMA at 171.90. Have a great weekend all.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,249
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:50am Aug 1, 2014 9:50am
Quoting Temujin
AUD/JPY is not selling as robustly, should have went with the widow maker, losing the 173.00 handle now. The only thing I'm seeing to get in the way of the drubbing is the 100 EMA at 171.90. Have a great weekend all.
Yeah, this thing had it's chance and failed dismally when it left 173.2 behind. Was interesting how it sat at 173.2 until NFP.

Out of 172.6 or so, any bullish view becomes more dubious and under 171.5 ish it's a long way down.

Have a good weekend.
  • #14,250
  • Aug 2, 2014 1:14pm Aug 2, 2014 1:14pm
out of gas. but its been a nice ride up for the past 18 months +
takin a step back, checkin out the monthly and weekly :: mid 160's seems realistic
  • #14,251
  • Aug 2, 2014 7:24pm Aug 2, 2014 7:24pm
Yes, it's the European vacation gots a grip on us big time till october 14
  • #14,252
  • Aug 4, 2014 1:56am Aug 4, 2014 1:56am
Friday's drop opened up the Head and Shoulders scenario for the GBP/JPY currency pair, price managed to break and close under the neck line and so far it stays below. That would mean there's an posibility to enter short trade at current price level targeting levels close to 170 as that would be the H&S formation range. But there are few "IF" on that entry that make me cautious, First thing that we are still in the uptrend on higher time frames, also the Friday's bounce level 172,3-4 level. Then the whole 172-173 zone which worked as ressistance from March till June this year is not the best zone to short from in my opinion. But sometimes there's no place to think too much and just trade the setup which is present on Your chart so I'd say it's fine to short as long as 173 and 173,3 levels are not broken to the upside. If the price would manage to break above 173 and 173,3 levels then I'd be willing to go long with new highs as a target.

Interactive chart present here ~

https://www.tradingview.com/v/UqlOfY0G/
  • #14,253
  • Edited 1:36am Aug 5, 2014 1:21am | Edited 1:36am
right now maybe a good time to push the sell button.....by the dealer chart, I swear,
eur/aud carry trade..... sell.....for another month
  • #14,254
  • Aug 6, 2014 9:22am Aug 6, 2014 9:22am
Ditched the GBP/CHF trade and made some minor pips but the sell on GBP/JPY during Tokyo yesterday at 173.40 made 114 pips putting the acct. over 400% in 9 weeks. Support on the daily coming up soon at 171.95. It will only be a temporary divergence from the current downtrend. 169.87 will be the stronger area.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #14,255
  • Aug 6, 2014 10:56am Aug 6, 2014 10:56am
After weeks of waiting for this thing to shoot higher, something is really starting to feel fishy here.

The stock market has also had a more erratic feeling of late.

What can't go higher, must go lower (and vice versa)... it sure is starting to feel as though we might go lower.

Targets to the downside look to be ~170, ~168, ~164 to start. Let's see what happens.
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  • #14,256
  • Aug 6, 2014 10:45pm Aug 6, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Geppy
After weeks of waiting for this thing to shoot higher, something is really starting to feel fishy here. The stock market has also had a more erratic feeling of late. What can't go higher, must go lower (and vice versa)... it sure is starting to feel as though we might go lower. Targets to the downside look to be ~170, ~168, ~164 to start. Let's see what happens.
All those targets are quite/very plausible - if it's in a down trend and completed at 175. Right now it struggles to get back up, but should it reclaim 172.5/6 then 172.9/173, I reckon this is just a retracement/correction in an up trend.

But, overall, it's as clear as mud.
  • #14,257
  • Aug 7, 2014 12:28am Aug 7, 2014 12:28am
GBP/JPY has made a 100 pip bounce from the low of the day. As of right now 172.577 gbp-jpy APPEARS to be catching alot of the shorts off guard with this 25 pip spike up in less then 15 mins. I`d love to hear what people would predict the next 50 pips would be from here. Up or down.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #14,258
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:51am Aug 7, 2014 1:51am
Quoting CholiPop
GBP/JPY has made a 100 pip bounce from the low of the day. As of right now 172.577 gbp-jpy APPEARS to be catching alot of the shorts off guard with this 25 pip spike up in less then 15 mins. I`d love to hear what people would predict the next 50 pips would be from here. Up or down.

down
  • #14,259
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:59am Aug 7, 2014 1:59am
Quoting CholiPop
GBP/JPY has made a 100 pip bounce from the low of the day. As of right now 172.577 gbp-jpy APPEARS to be catching alot of the shorts off guard with this 25 pip spike up in less then 15 mins. I`d love to hear what people would predict the next 50 pips would be from here. Up or down.
This market to me, is one where traders are being short squeezed out of their positions. To me, the best idea is to be as contrarian as you can. For this reason, I would suggest bucking the trend in the short term - ie buying GBP/JPY. All IMO.
  • #14,260
  • Aug 7, 2014 10:57am Aug 7, 2014 10:57am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} All those targets are quite/very plausible - if it's in a down trend and completed at 175. Right now it struggles to get back up, but should it reclaim 172.5/6 then 172.9/173, I reckon this is just a retracement/correction in an up trend. But, overall, it's as clear as mud.
Haha, yes... clear as mud

I favored retracements/corrections until yesterday. I now think we're heading lower. Looking at the daily, it's clear we've broken some major support. If this is an actual change in trend yet... I don't know. But it does seem like there's still some room to run lower before the longer-term direction is determined (whether that be up or down).

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