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Cross Market Analysis

  • #301
  • Aug 6, 2014 8:09am Aug 6, 2014 8:09am
Quoting Ivanyo
Have been reading the mail you've been sending - does anyone here solely trade following the recommendations in the news?
I'm still trying to remember all the terms and abbreviations, a new one pops up every other word
  • #302
  • Aug 6, 2014 8:10am Aug 6, 2014 8:10am
Is it common for someone to have a negative total p/l on recommendations like that? If so how long can they stay employed or is it just dependent on whether they can sell these ideas to clients (b/c commissions on the trade)?
  • #303
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:28pm Aug 6, 2014 12:28pm
Maybe slightly off topic Aws, but is a possible Ebola outbreak being factored in by the bank traders? does it matter to them...
  • #304
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:29pm Aug 6, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting sandy-pip
Maybe slightly off topic Aws, but is a possible Ebola outbreak being factored in by the bank traders? does it matter to them...
No, its not even remotely important.
  • #305
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:41pm Aug 6, 2014 12:41pm
mate
billions reportedly going into jpy fut, they were simultaneously hedged by machines over the market rite. aud calm and supported

possible to click 25k jpy contracts with ease with big providers? whats the spread then?
what happens when big HF comes in...naturally you wanna dispozze it slowly and quietly...but what if it comes unexpectedly

stuff like that..
  • #306
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:41pm Aug 6, 2014 12:41pm
Quoting J0llyJ
Is it common for someone to have a negative total p/l on recommendations like that? If so how long can they stay employed or is it just dependent on whether they can sell these ideas to clients (b/c commissions on the trade)?
Well, Hans over at MS (and his team) is on track for 3 straight negative years... he still seems pretty safe..

However these recos are basically our CVs, so its kinda funny when people say that the banks are betting against the clients, because thats a load of rubbish. The banker wants the trade to do well, just as much as anyone else!
  • #307
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:45pm Aug 6, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting 21vs7
mate billions reportedly going into jpy fut, they were simultaneously hedged by machines over the market rite. aud calm and supported possible to click 25k jpy contracts with ease with big providers? whats the spread then? what happens when big HF comes in...naturally you wanna dispozze it slowly and quietly...but what if it comes unexpectedly stuff like that..
I saw close to 7billion on EBS go thru... CME futures not too important btw

But on EBS, at this time of day, quite easily could have paid 15+ pip spread on that USDJPY trade...
  • #308
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:02pm Aug 6, 2014 1:02pm
Citi sales guys telling people that it wasnt a fat finger, more very quick sell programs triggering stops on a drop under 102.15, but it doesn't make a difference.... The market dropped, then it bounced. no big deal.
  • #309
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:08pm Aug 6, 2014 1:08pm
yeah i agree
but what can we say that aj havent moved? well, it did but...

when hedged they mainly went to aud?
aud also moved ag other curr

this mean something or none
  • #310
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:14pm Aug 6, 2014 1:14pm
concerning the spread...
really, only 15? This is hard to believe for 3bill
I played 70 mio in one ticket and it was higher
  • #311
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:15pm Aug 6, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting 21vs7
yeah i agree but what can we say that aj havent moved? well, it did but... when hedged they mainly went to aud? aud also moved ag other curr this mean something or none
doesn't mean much, other than AUD being high beta to me...
  • #312
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:17pm Aug 6, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting 21vs7
concerning the spread... really, only 15? This is hard to believe for 3bill I played 70 mio in one ticket and it was higher
in USDJPY at a decent hour? you got seriously bad prices my friend... 70 mil should clear in a few pips at most if the counterparty has a decent system...

Citi have the impressive "dagger" series of algos for executing large size in aggressive ways. Dagger 8 for FX is pretty good and >15 pips for 70 mil is crazy high!? you sure this wasn't at midnight in the early 1990's?
  • #313
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:24pm Aug 6, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} in USDJPY at a decent hour? you got seriously bad prices my friend... 70 mil should clear in a few pips at most if the counterparty has a decent system... Citi have the impressive "dagger" series of algos for executing large size in aggressive ways. Dagger 8 for FX is pretty good and >15 pips for 70 mil is crazy high!? you sure this wasn't at midnight in the early 1990's?
im sure 3bil ag 70 mil is a different story. even td with this speed systems
deutshe ubs commander all widen spreads ..barclays.. for me is fair...but if i can sell and resell 3b on 15 pips even on the low time of the day..no sir

I imagine what they would do with 3b

visited lots of trading floors in laandan..the numbers were always higher but im not an operator
  • #314
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:26pm Aug 6, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting 21vs7
concerning the spread... really, only 15? This is hard to believe for 3bill I played 70 mio in one ticket and it was higher
70 mil = 700 lots spread 15 pips but 10 pips go under the table
  • #315
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:34pm Aug 6, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 70 mil = 700 lots spread 15 pips but 10 pips go under the table
client was behind this just back to back deal
i took 20
  • #316
  • Aug 6, 2014 4:38pm Aug 6, 2014 4:38pm
Desk been buying EURs... again... will it work this time?

Looking at the USDEUR we can see that it reversed exactly at the key 0.75 pyschological level earlier today.

Some corporates and real money, look at the EURUSD the other way around... hence they have their stops/orders at prices quoted in USD/EUR...

In this example, the EURUSD low today was 1.3333, taking the recipricol of this gives us the 0.75 level in USDEUR...

Looks bearish to me (i.e. bullish EURUSD)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDEUR.png Size: 54 KB
  • #317
  • Aug 7, 2014 4:10am Aug 7, 2014 4:10am
Quoting sandy-pip
{quote} I'm still trying to remember all the terms and abbreviations, a new one pops up every other word
Definitely in a similar situation to you there.
  • #318
  • Aug 7, 2014 5:08am Aug 7, 2014 5:08am
JPY – It was a big washout of long $ position overnight, which happened right after the London went home, USD/JPY dropped to 101.77 from 102.20 very instantly triggering many stops. It was triggered by the market positioning which was long $, there was no news coming out and other market didn’t budge at that time. USD/JPY bounced to 102.46 on the back of GPIF’s headline telling that they plan to increase their domestic equity to ‘over’ 20% from current 12%. Nikkei also recovered and kept holding a key level of 15,000 ( low 15,060 close 15,232). In terms of trading, market long position is obviously lightened but still remains while the risk-off sentiment continues. US yields remain at low and that risk-off is unlikely to support USD/JPY at the moment. I think that USD/JPY trades under pressure today, resistance is at 102.55/60 while support is at 101.75/80.



EUR - We made a new low yesterday (1.3333) but big bids and a broader USD turn, except against AUD, has lifted us a little. The market is undeniably short so there is still the risk of nasty price action. I doubt we’ll get anything like the Usd/Jpy but it does highlight the risks of a stop-related move in consensus markets. The main event today is the ECB and having said the above I do think there is not an insignificant risk of a dovish surprise. Asset purchases could spark a move, as could anything Draghi says about his succession plans. The data from the Euro area has been very weak recently (more bad German Industrial numbers this morning -0.5% vs +0.3% expected) and this could well force the ECB’s hand.

If nothing new comes from the ECB then we’re in squeeze mode. If we see it I will want to sell 1.3420 first. I would not want to see this above 1.3515 at all, so all the way up to there I’ll be hovering over the sell button.

CHF – Trade Usd/Chf from the USD side, as always. Eur/Chf took two weeks to grind out a 35 point gain, and has taken 1 and a half days to take it all off again.



GBP – weak data yesterday in terms of IP and NIESR , today we get BOE at midday (a few calling for some type of tech adjustment) but the real focus from here will be next Wednesdays BOE inflation report. The BoE meeting will not give us any changes, nor will it give us any details of the voting and discussion, so we’ll have to wait for the minutes for the real juice.
Price wise it’s pretty flat. For now cable holding its recent 1.6815-20 lows but struggles to break back above its 100 DMA at 1.6868.
Eur/Gbp struggling to break below 0.7920 , positioning a lot lighter than it was , remain long pounds V both Usd and euros.



Well the commonwealth order board is a lot cleaner today!
The Canadian trade data cleaned out many of short term $cad longs yesterday and the ’double whammy‘ of the dollar collapse in New York and the weaker Australian employment data has cleared both extremes of the aussie order board .
Very difficult call today so I think I’ll go with the flow. The ADXY is trading heavily , but it is approaching the 100 day m/a that comes in at 115.77 and 115.74 is the 200 day which may provide some support for both Aud and kiwi . Support comes in at 0.9235 and 0.8420 with resistance for the pairs 0.9290 and 0.8495. NZD hasn’t accelerated on the Milk induced weakness of a few days ago.
$cad seems to be attracting buying interest ahead of 1.0900 (100 day 1.0881). Topside resistance for now comes in at 1.0960 .

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui...=emb&zw&atsh=1
  • #319
  • Aug 7, 2014 5:41am Aug 7, 2014 5:41am
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} Definitely in a similar situation to you there.
can always ask...
  • #320
  • Aug 7, 2014 5:51am Aug 7, 2014 5:51am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} can always ask...
haha you'll wish you never said that! the list is endless... for the most part I can Google it, but it's things like 'EM' - I have to guess with the context and can't always decide on European Markets or Emerging Markets or maybe even sometimes Equities Market ?

Here: "Clearly the ongoing crisis in Ukraine will be important to monitor in the coming days/weeks but the price action in EM was actually fairly firm yesterday." ... European? Watch it be totally off!
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