Wow the markets are boring... spend as long as possible at lunch, no point watching a screen these days.
Here is Nomura spot desk thoughts
JPY – USD/JPY was lifted by a fixing demand and printed a daily high of 102.63 in Asia, before it run out of steam and drifted lower to 102.46 following the lower Nikkei dropping by 0.9% today. Flows we have seen are getting mixed since yesterday, fast monies started to sell USD for the taking-profit while some fresh USD buying from real monies was still seen on its dip. In terms of trading, I still like to be long USD/JPY but it will be another quiet day for USD/JPY today as there is no major event. A key support is at 102.20/25, I retain my longs until those levels are broken. On the topside, USD/JPY has not been closing above 102.80 where was an exact June high, I think the close above could give more confidence to stay long but it will take a little more time it looks.
EUR - Very little has changed overnight and my strategy remains the same. There is a risk of a squeeze higher (maybe driven by EU PMIs this morning, but unlikely) but I need to be light enough to add to shorts on the rally. Oversold dynamics unwinding nicely. US Non-Manu ISM this afternoon is the highlight on what is an otherwise uneventful day. A small amount of USD weakness creeping into some other pairs.
CHF – Nothing has changed here. USD is USD, cross is a grind higher but it’s pegged.
GBP – some quite heavy selling of pounds yesterday V both usd and euros but it held ok and has actually bounced very lightly overnight , so we may be looking at sterling basing here above 1.6815-20 and below 0.7980-85. That’s the way I’m going to play it over the next few sessions.
AUD - RBA was unchanged overnight (as expected) and a weaker HSBC services PMI caused the aussie to fall from the highs but this has been met by real money demand .
The commonwealth opens relatively unchanged this morning , but I suspect with the better performance of the ADXY overnight we are in for a session of U.S dollar weakness , helped by the fall in U.S 10 year yields back to 2.4750.
Short term support for aud$ comes in at 0.9315 with the first resistance level at 0.9350 ( 38.2% fib 0.9471/0.9276 ) and then 0.9390.
NZD - I again feel we could see a squeeze higher in the nzd$. We are trading right on the short term resistance at 0.8525 , but there’s light stops building through 0.8540 and the support should appear at 0.8500/05.
Milk auction today always has the capacity to move things.
CAD - found macro supply around 1.0930 yesterday and the loonie has underperformed overnight mainly due to flows ( Asia doesn’t like Canada at the moment ). In this pair I’m more in a buy US$ mode still , I’ll await a dip to 1.0890 ( 100 day ) and resistance still comes in at 1.0935/40
Here is Nomura spot desk thoughts
JPY – USD/JPY was lifted by a fixing demand and printed a daily high of 102.63 in Asia, before it run out of steam and drifted lower to 102.46 following the lower Nikkei dropping by 0.9% today. Flows we have seen are getting mixed since yesterday, fast monies started to sell USD for the taking-profit while some fresh USD buying from real monies was still seen on its dip. In terms of trading, I still like to be long USD/JPY but it will be another quiet day for USD/JPY today as there is no major event. A key support is at 102.20/25, I retain my longs until those levels are broken. On the topside, USD/JPY has not been closing above 102.80 where was an exact June high, I think the close above could give more confidence to stay long but it will take a little more time it looks.
EUR - Very little has changed overnight and my strategy remains the same. There is a risk of a squeeze higher (maybe driven by EU PMIs this morning, but unlikely) but I need to be light enough to add to shorts on the rally. Oversold dynamics unwinding nicely. US Non-Manu ISM this afternoon is the highlight on what is an otherwise uneventful day. A small amount of USD weakness creeping into some other pairs.
CHF – Nothing has changed here. USD is USD, cross is a grind higher but it’s pegged.
GBP – some quite heavy selling of pounds yesterday V both usd and euros but it held ok and has actually bounced very lightly overnight , so we may be looking at sterling basing here above 1.6815-20 and below 0.7980-85. That’s the way I’m going to play it over the next few sessions.
AUD - RBA was unchanged overnight (as expected) and a weaker HSBC services PMI caused the aussie to fall from the highs but this has been met by real money demand .
The commonwealth opens relatively unchanged this morning , but I suspect with the better performance of the ADXY overnight we are in for a session of U.S dollar weakness , helped by the fall in U.S 10 year yields back to 2.4750.
Short term support for aud$ comes in at 0.9315 with the first resistance level at 0.9350 ( 38.2% fib 0.9471/0.9276 ) and then 0.9390.
NZD - I again feel we could see a squeeze higher in the nzd$. We are trading right on the short term resistance at 0.8525 , but there’s light stops building through 0.8540 and the support should appear at 0.8500/05.
Milk auction today always has the capacity to move things.
CAD - found macro supply around 1.0930 yesterday and the loonie has underperformed overnight mainly due to flows ( Asia doesn’t like Canada at the moment ). In this pair I’m more in a buy US$ mode still , I’ll await a dip to 1.0890 ( 100 day ) and resistance still comes in at 1.0935/40
