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Winning Systems

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 31, 2014 11:45am Jul 31, 2014 11:45am
There is enough on FF to produce some really robust systems. Does anyone here think that traders who visit the factory and find enough information to build a really robust system take it and scurry away?

In other words, if the components of a holy grail were here, and someone was to find some of them, do you think they would post all the components in a coherent fashion?

If not, why not?

I think some people here have some powerful systems, but they will only nibble around the edges of what really works.

Full Disclosure: Chicky said something to me that so chilled me to the bone that I confess that I would not post a truly winning system for fear of some US Congressman reading it, and putting a bill on the floor to ban it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:58am Jul 31, 2014 11:58am
Finding a profitable system is not something esoteric or hidden or whatever you think about it.It's just that you didnt look hard enough for it, its pretty easy to find it once you learn more about the markets and how they work, and not waste time with people who are full of crap and probably waste your time.

I myself have wasted much time listening to traders who didnt know what they were saying, but once i became more independent and learned more, i could then trade much more easy and with that knowledge trading has really became easy.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #3
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:00pm Jul 31, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting Proximus
Finding a profitable system is not something esoteric or hidden or whatever you think about it.It's just that you didnt look hard enough for it, its pretty easy to find it once you learn more about the markets and how they work, and not waste time with people who are full of crap and probably waste your time. I myself have wasted much time listening to traders who didnt know what they were saying, but once i became more independent and learned more, i could then trade much more easy and with that knowledge trading has really became easy.
I think there are only a finite number of ways to trade, but an infinite number of ways to implement it. I have noticed in the two years I have been posting here that too many here are trying to get rich quick. Anyone at 25 learning to trade should be able to retire at 35, assuming a two year learning curve and correct management of their fund.

Most traders do not treat their business like a fund.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #4
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:09pm Jul 31, 2014 9:09pm
I think the millipede thread here is probably one of the best threads on any forum. Pressing your winners and cutting losers in a systematic way is the path to success. I modified my trading approach because of it and found a tremendous benefit.
  • #5
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:30pm Jul 31, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting Proximus
Finding a profitable system is not something esoteric or hidden or whatever you think about it.It's just that you didnt look hard enough for it, its pretty easy to find it once you learn more about the markets and how they work, and not waste time with people who are full of crap and probably waste your time. I myself have wasted much time listening to traders who didnt know what they were saying, but once i became more independent and learned more, i could then trade much more easy and with that knowledge trading has really became easy.

I bet my house you can't show us a profitable system , verified statistically of course......
  • #6
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:18pm Jul 31, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting Proximus
Finding a profitable system is not something esoteric or hidden or whatever you think about it.It's just that you didnt look hard enough for it, its pretty easy to find it once you learn more about the markets and how they work, and not waste time with people who are full of crap and probably waste your time. I myself have wasted much time listening to traders who didnt know what they were saying, but once i became more independent and learned more, i could then trade much more easy and with that knowledge trading has really became easy.
This is the kicker. You will be amazed how much better you can get once you stop coming to FF on a regular basis or at least take some time off of here.
"Serenity, you sound like a frustrated Canadian living your life in the US"
  • #7
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:15am Aug 1, 2014 2:15am
Hmmm successful methods/systems....

- James16
- Strat's long term stress free trading
- raczekfx chart thread
- PIE

Also go to read the market.... god you can keep going, there are heaps.

There are great methods/systems out there, just most people are crappy traders.
Even a fantastic system in the hands of an average trader will fail.

These systems are dynamic and not the typical static systems most people probably want.

A quote from Strat which i hope people read and understand. You pick any method i have listed above and follow the below quote you will be well on your way to becoming profitable.

"My advice is pick a method/strategy/time frame that suits/compliments your style as a trader and LEARN it until you know it upside down, backwards, forwards and inside out. It could be an indicator(s) method/strategy, but LEARN it like no other instead of thread hopping - indicator trading is profitable if you LEARN the strengths/weaknesses/failings of the indicator(s)."


Just focus on ONE method and see where it takes you....
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #8
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:19am Aug 1, 2014 2:19am
Quoting shark10
{quote} I bet my house you can't show us a profitable system , verified statistically of course......
I didnt verified statistically yet, but it is a profitable system.Not a Holy Grail, but the closest it can get to it.Steady profit, low DD, and good returns.Most market movements are accurately predicted, that is a pretty good definition for an edge.

But you dont wanna bet on it, you might become homeless
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #9
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:21am Aug 1, 2014 2:21am
Quoting SerenityFX
{quote} This is the kicker. You will be amazed how much better you can get once you stop coming to FF on a regular basis or at least take some time off of here.
I have no problem with being on FF,because i come here to teach not to learn , just read through my previous posts, they are usually informative.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #10
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:02pm Aug 1, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I have no problem with being on FF,because i come here to teach not to learn , just read through my previous posts, they are usually informative.
My apologies. The way I had constructed that post made it sound like I was challenging your abilities as a trader. I was just pointing out that what you said is key for jmn and those curious to understand.

Best,
SFX
"Serenity, you sound like a frustrated Canadian living your life in the US"
  • #11
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:43pm Aug 1, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting shark10
I bet my house you can't show us a profitable system , verified statistically of course......
//----

http://www.forexfactory.com/webjeff/81

//------

6 years.....

always the same pair......

always the same signal.....

always the same profit target....

always the same stop loss.....

verified by me, trade for trade..... to my knowledge he has never once wavered from the ea's rules.....

does your house come with a deer stand near by.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #12
  • Edited 1:40am Aug 5, 2014 1:24am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting jmn5611
There is enough on FF to produce some really robust systems. Does anyone here think that traders who visit the factory and find enough information to build a really robust system take it and scurry away? In other words, if the components of a holy grail were here, and someone was to find some of them, do you think they would post all the components in a coherent fashion? If not, why not? I think some people here have some powerful systems, but they will only nibble around the edges of what really works. Full Disclosure: Chicky said something to...
I have not found any evidence that there are any operational aritificial system (EA or person) that overlays the real system (price) in a sufficiently precise manner. I think that there probably are things like that, but i have not been able to confirm this. For me good trading is not about adhering to rules, because the market changes, so must the guidelines of how to trade. I can only answer for myself and i use four different principals that you could probably term: 1 (trend) + 3 (candle stick formation or price action) + 4 (support/resistance) = (2) When to enter. Take profit and stop loss is determined by what happens next. If i DID have hard coded TPs and SLs they would be based on a current ATR reading, so that they would be an effect of the volatility.

I think that 90% of people who come here and learn enough, will just go away and not tell about what they have learned. Mainly i have found that the people who share are the ones of faith, be it Buddhism, Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Animism or something else. I try to be one of those people. People dont pay attention normaly, but i dont gain anything from persuasion so things will remain so until or if they dont.

I dont really think there enough components for a holy grail here, because there is no holy grail. But i DO think there are enough components to be very profitable for a very long time. But, like i said, i dont think its a matter of adhering to a specific system and its rules. I think different systems have different merits and flaws, but something like 90% of the systems out there are absolute rubbish.

TROPHY FEES FOR RED STAG
CIC/score less than 179.9 pts. $2,250
FROM: 185 cic pts. $2,875 + $100 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 190 cic pts. $3,375 + $125 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 195 cic pts. $4,000 + $200 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 200 cic pts. $5,000 + $250 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 205 cic pts. $6,250 + $250 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 210 cic pts. $7,500 + $250 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 215 cic pts. $8,750 + $250 x ea. add'l pt.
FROM: 220 cic pts. $10,000 + $500 x ea. add'l pt.

I wonder what all that means?

Happy trading to all and everyone!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #13
  • Edited 2:47am Aug 5, 2014 2:35am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting hayseed
//---- http://www.forexfactory.com/webjeff/81 //------ 6 years..... always the same pair...... always the same signal..... always the same profit target.... always the same stop loss..... verified by me, trade for trade..... to my knowledge he has never once wavered from the ea's rules..... does your house come with a deer stand near by.....h
Hay,

Webjeff's is one of the more impressive true-to-life equity charts I've seen. Looks like it uses a conventional approach, along with textbook MM. And if it's a fully automated system, then it's some hard evidence that the markets can be beaten using TA alone, and stoplosses.

I guess the blowhards will scoff at a "mere" 93% return in 3½ years, and the fact that the system has lost money since the beginning of 2013; hence there's a great opportunity for them to vindicate themselves, by producing a better third-party-verified live account performance over 900+ trades and 3½ years of changing markets, using a fully automated system. I suspect that it's possible, but difficult.

David
  • #14
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:42am Aug 5, 2014 4:42am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- http://www.forexfactory.com/webjeff/81 //------ 6 years..... always the same pair...... always the same signal..... always the same profit target.... always the same stop loss..... verified by me, trade for trade..... to my knowledge he has never once wavered from the ea's rules..... does your house come with a deer stand near by.....h
Eh really, a -51.4% DD ? I would not be so proud of this.

And the equity curve looks like a bell curve, half of the time goes up, and now it goes down.

I bet it will blow out in a matter of weeks.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #15
  • Aug 5, 2014 5:39am Aug 5, 2014 5:39am
FWIW I don't like Webjeff's stats either. Not only the >50% DD, also the fact he is risking 5 - 10% on each trade with a system that wins only slightly more than 50% of the time. His gains were all achieved in approximately a 12 month period, at the time the BOE was steadily increasing asset purchases, but he hasn't been able to show a profit in any other conditions. I have seen much better and more reliable records elsewhere, I wouldn't invest my money in this guy.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #16
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:57am Aug 5, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Eh really, a -51.4% DD ? I would not be so proud of this. And the equity curve looks like a bell curve, half of the time goes up, and now it goes down. I bet it will blow out in a matter of weeks.
//----

that's a bet i would take.....

pride and trading probably should not be mixed..... if honest traders had to choose what is the most common reason for failures, pride would be high on that list.....
//-----

but getting back to webjeff...... i have mentioned him multiple times in the past on different threads.....

he is running a simple but profitable ea.... how many of us can say that.....

he, to my knowledge, never changes the targets or bends the rules..... how many of us can say that......

in all these years his account has traded 1 and only 1 system....... how many of us can say that......

he takes every single signal his ea produces...... how many of us can say that.....

he trades a single pair..... how many of us can say that.....

i for sure could not say any of the above..... he makes my trade meddling, rule bending, ea hopping and so on look bad.....

//------

can his system be improved..... absolutely.... he is trading signals on a single timeframe.....

without a higher timeframe filter, someone taking every trade will be subject to an excessive string of losses....

he just carries on.... as if he could care less...... wonder if he might be dead and the ea still silently running in the back dark room of some universitys basement.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #17
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:17pm Aug 5, 2014 6:17pm
risking 5% per trade to be 90% up... or whatever number..... impressive

I've had more luck at the blackjack table, and that doesnt mean I can beat it...
  • #18
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:11am Aug 6, 2014 1:11am
What i came to think about is this: Is a winning system the same thing as a profitable one? Now that i think about it, to me its not. Winning is a feeling, profitability is a mathematical definition. But if this person with the EA does what the numbers say, by defenition it is a profitable system. Its impossible to create some critique that it might not be profitable for ever, nothing is profitable for ever. Not that i would invest in it given the statistics as it is. Neither would i invest in another strange system that some say give you 2% a day in interest. Simply because i want to do it myself. And giving some small gains to "investors" and then finally when you want to get your whole bunch of money out it is "impossible" for some reason. The problem with giving money to somebody else is that there is a big probability they want to keep it, given that they have come to see that money as their own. Im not saying this is so in the case at hand, im just speaking generaly.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #19
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:08am Aug 6, 2014 7:08am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- that's a bet i would take..... pride and trading probably should not be mixed..... if honest traders had to choose what is the most common reason for failures, pride would be high on that list..... //----- but getting back to webjeff...... i have mentioned him multiple times in the past on different threads..... he is running a simple but profitable ea.... how many of us can say that..... he, to my knowledge, never changes the targets or bends the rules..... how many of us can say that...... in all these years his account has traded...
Thats like clinging to the bullshit, there is a thing called adaptation you know.If a method becomes unprofitable after a while, its very recommended that you review it and adapt it to the current market condition, instead of clinging it to it, and losing money with it, just for the sake of demonstration, that you are so disciplined that you can hang on to a losing system

It is nonsense to cling to that, i dont care about discipline if it means to run a losing system forever.Better be undisciplined and profitable than disciplined and unprofitable...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #20
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:30am Aug 6, 2014 7:30am
Quoting yaed
Simply because i want to do it myself.
//----

hey yaed...... ..... ..... i'm with you.....

it can be done..... we can do it..... and one day we'll look back and say, to ourselves, we did it in a polite and respectful manner........h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
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