Trading is as simple as ABCD | Page 62 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Gartley/bat/crab/butterfly/abcd/three Drives Pattern Indicator Help 50 replies

Abcd fibo retracement trading journal 109 replies

ABCD - My way 122 replies

ABCD Fibo 82 replies

abcd patterns 1 reply

Attachments: Trading is as simple as ABCD
Exit Attachments

Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #1,221
  • Aug 4, 2014 6:31am Aug 4, 2014 6:31am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} August with summer hols can be quieter but generally if system is solid it will bring trades. OK what I look for (but definitely do not always get right) is to see if correlating pairs are agreeing or not (clean a b c's, good angle/separation on ma's). If they are theres obviously uniform strength/weakness across the board and therefore more than likely to have better movement. If not then I'd be looking to bail anywhere from +15. For example this morning GJ gave a very smooth signal after LO but other GBP pairs charts were definitely not...

Yep I'm thinking along same lines with strength across the board also like to see 20 plus on the scale too. Right now looks good for GBP pairs doesn't it???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1408041230mon.PNG Size: 75 KB


Gotta get to work right now but lets keep talking as this is really starting to take shape. By the way fell for that GBPJPY setup this morning, other than that ok.

Catch up tomoz....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,222
  • Edited 11:12am Aug 4, 2014 10:44am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} August with summer hols can be quieter but generally if system is solid it will bring trades. OK what I look for (but definitely do not always get right) is to see if correlating pairs are agreeing or not (clean a b c's, good angle/separation on ma's). If they are theres obviously uniform strength/weakness across the board and therefore more than likely to have better movement. If not then I'd be looking to bail anywhere from +15. For example this morning GJ gave a very smooth signal after LO but other GBP pairs charts were definitely not...
How very true Vantage, great insight This is the way I trade too and funny that you mentioned the GJ as I actually took that trade about 47 minutes into London open @ 172.67 with a very tight stop @ 172.73. Potential roadblocks were the DO and RN (172.5). I was targeting the low of the prior H4 as that will cause a kind of engulfing/outside bar. I however noticed the M15 strength was not agreeing with the M1 & M5 strength and like you said, the other GBP pairs were not all aligned, so exited before the new release without trying to play the hero.

Learning from you guys and really appreciate the spirit here.

Shalom

George
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Trade - 8042014.gif Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: correlation pairs monitor - 8042014.png Size: 214 KB
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,223
  • Aug 4, 2014 6:04pm Aug 4, 2014 6:04pm
Earlier today just before I shot off to work I posted my 4 top trenders as below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1408041230mon.PNG Size: 75 KB


Now its clear theres some GBP strength right across the board and all 4 GBP pairs were setting up the same in fact almost identical setups so how do we know which one to trade???

The simple answer could be we don't know so reduce risk size and trade all 4 or can we identify a characteristic that helps us to choose the best one???

Heres the 4 charts after the time I posted here, the blue vertical line is when I posted the 4 charts together. Is there any clue as to which one to trade???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM1.png Size: 62 KB


Looking at GBPJPY we can see we had our first HH AB leg which was fine but the pullback BC leg wasn't very good it was a bit tatty and then we had a couple of failed drives off of 2 HL's once that happens its obvious this pair is struggling to make new highs or any progress up so just GTFO asap for as little damage as possible BE if you can off of one of the failed drives up. As you can see its not long after the failed drives that price declines the 100LWMA turns red and the 15 min CCI is breaking down lower too. Don't be afraid to close out if in doubt, if it is going to go it will give you another clear setup shortly so never hesitate getting out if in doubt, just GTFO.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 71 KB


GBAUD didn't do any better with failed drive after failed drive so again any doubt GTFO. Just note how the pullbacks were good on the 15 min CCI not going below the +100 level but the drives were not strong enough and sure enough very soon the 100lwma turns red and the 15 min CCI drops down below the +100 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFM1.png Size: 56 KB


GBPCHF fairs a little better with some HH's and some nice LH's to trade but its not really making any head way or breaking much higher so again be careful and get to BE quickly take no risks with weak price action like this. We want to see clear HH's and clear HL's in a strong trend. The final straw is the LL and the 100LWMA turns red. The 15 min CCI drops down lower too. However we then get exactly what we are looking for with a clear HH followed by a clear HL producing an ideal run up. Further on theres some more positive price action with clear HH and HL.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1.png Size: 55 KB


GBPUSD fairs best of all and we can see why , right from the start we see clear HH's and HL's. Each 1 min CCI signal is a higher low than the previous CCI signal. A nice strong trend is in play. Theres a little lull with a LL and the 100lwma turning red but its not a strong move down and the uptrend soon resumes with clear HH's and HL's. Note how the 15min CCI stays above its +100 level too throughout all the pullbacks because the market structure stays in line with HHHL's .

So to answer the question of which pair do we choose when they all line up similar, just watch for the clear stronger moves up as in this case with each 1 minute CCI pullback signal producing a clear HL or DB at least. Check for the pair with the most positive market structure with each drive clearing the previous one, any failed drives move to BE quickly and see if it survives the following pullback. It should also stay above the +100 level in an uptrend or below the -100 level for a downtrend.

The markets right now seem very quiet with little follow through so don't hang on for too much as small moves seem to be the order of the day right now. Also right now I'm watching any overbought or sold pair closely as they seem to be reversing very easily and providing us with our biggest moves just like GBPUSD today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM11.png Size: 63 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,224
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:11am Aug 5, 2014 2:11am
Morning analysis.

First the news releases will look at the EUR orange results and if a high differential will trade a EUR pair that sets up accordingly so post news trades. GBP news at 09.30hrs will try my new pre-news release strategy see how it goes?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140805news.PNG Size: 30 KB


Overnight movers , nothing very strong but little bit of AUD strength but not enough to cause a strong reversal I'm sure.

Attached Image


Right now we have some GBP weakness so waiting for a nice clean pullback to sell. Interesting this GBP weakness before a news release, have the "Good old London Boys" had a heads up on spike direction????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1408050803mon.PNG Size: 82 KB


Lets see how it all pans out.........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,225
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:30am Aug 5, 2014 2:30am
First sell stop didn't get hit and I'm very aware this GBPNZD is very oversold on our 15 min CCI so as always just makes me wander will it reverse sometime soon?? Need to see it produce a new high if thats even to be considered but this move up looks quite strong so keeping an open mind.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDM1.png Size: 52 KB


Will move sell stop up as it goes up all the time the ABCD is still valid, move above 1.9784 and all sells are off!!!

EUR news positive for EUR so keep an eye out for a strong move up on a EUR pair too.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,226
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:36am Aug 5, 2014 2:36am
I'm busy with my GBPNZD entry but this EURJPY is setting up nicely after positive EUR news???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM1.png Size: 47 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,227
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:56am Aug 5, 2014 2:56am
Didn't do what I wanted it to do so had to make a decision and cut it quickly for a 3 pip loser. Shame really as it looked good until that failed drive down made me just question it down??? Then a bit of wishy washy price action so cut it, probably will regret it but thats just the way it goes.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,228
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:19am Aug 5, 2014 3:19am
Will review that GBPNZD trade later but to me its all about that oversold 15 min CCI being a problem after a 50 pip move already loaded with sellers with itchy fingers to bank at first sign of a problem.

Anyway time for my pre-news trade on GBPUSD as price is down its looking like a negative spike down to me but who knows???

Just testing this idea out as would of worked nicely in July with 9 winners out of 12 news releases.

Got two chances I guess???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,229
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:54am Aug 5, 2014 3:54am
Good morning Just stopping by on my way to snooze
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Trade - 8052014.gif Size: 48 KB
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,230
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:01am Aug 5, 2014 11:01am
Hello All,

I hope everyone is doing well. Work has been very busy since getting back from vacation but I am still silently trading this method in the background and testing a few new ideas building a full trading plan around CCI's etc... This will be a complete plan including entry types, SL placements for each entry type and trade management for each entry type. I am also in the early stages of building a dashboad indicator that will monitor the pairs I want to trade (or watch for trades) and print signals based on various factors so I can quickly see an across the board view of what pairs are setting up for possible buys or sells. May have this dashboard email or text me also if its spots trade set-ups that have met a certain and very specific set of rules. This will allow me to trade without so much screen time if all goes well. Early days on this though.

Interesting that Vantage is considering making this his primary method, this should tell everyone the power of what is being done here when the rules that one lays out for themselves (based on what has been tested and proven here) are followed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,231
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:35am Aug 5, 2014 11:35am
pres78 - what are your settings for the HAMA please?
  • #1,232
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:41am Aug 5, 2014 11:41am
Quoting handy148
pres78 - what are your settings for the HAMA please?
Currently I have the HAMA for the 100 LWMA. I also have a normal (not HA) 50LWMA (use the cross of the 50 and 100 as signal for possible trend change) and also a 200 LWMA (still testing the usefulness of the 3rd MA).

I was using the HAMA for the 50LWMA but changed it back to the 100LWMA to filter the small retraces on the 50 that change color but the 100 LWMA stays in trend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,233
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:45am Aug 6, 2014 2:45am
DON'T QUIT

When things go wrong, as they sometimes will,
When the road you're trudging seems all uphill,
When funds are low and the debts are high,
And you want to smile but you have to sigh,
When care is pressing you down a bit,
Rest if you must, but don't you quit.

Life is queer with its twists and turns,
As every one of us sometimes learns,
And many a failure turns about,
When he might have won if he'd stuck it out.
Don't give up, though the pace seems slow -
You may succeed with another blow.

Often the goal is nearer than
It seems to a faint and faltering man;
Often the struggler has given up
When he might have captured the victor's cup,
And he learned too late, when the night slipped down,
How close he was to the golden crown.

Success is failure turned inside out -
The silver tint of the clouds of doubt,
And you never can tell how close you are -
It may be near when it seems afar;
So stick to the fight when you're hardest hit -
It's when things seem worst that you mustn't quit.
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,234
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:55am Aug 6, 2014 2:55am
Quoting 919gilead
DON'T QUIT When things go wrong, as they sometimes will, When the road you're trudging seems all uphill, When funds are low and the debts are high, And you want to smile but you have to sigh, When care is pressing you down a bit, Rest if you must, but don't you quit. Life is queer with its twists and turns, As every one of us sometimes learns, And many a failure turns about, When he might have won if he'd stuck it out. Don't give up, though the pace seems slow - You may succeed with another blow. Often the goal is nearer than It seems to a faint...

Wow, thats awesome George and your timing couldn't of been better was just about to give up on the whole forex trading idea full stop!!!

Last night I went to bed after checking chart after chart and searching for the all elusive answer. Desperately fed up and seriously considering giving it all up!! But by the strangest coincidence I woke up this morning with a massive light bulb moment and that added to your brilliant post I've decided to crack on and never give up!!!

Thanks George you're a star and don't worry I will never give up I am determined to succeed, I feel I am so close!!!

Have just sent you a PM.

Cheers George!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,235
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:02am Aug 6, 2014 3:02am
Quoting pres78
Hello All, I hope everyone is doing well. Work has been very busy since getting back from vacation but I am still silently trading this method in the background and testing a few new ideas building a full trading plan around CCI's etc... This will be a complete plan including entry types, SL placements for each entry type and trade management for each entry type. I am also in the early stages of building a dashboad indicator that will monitor the pairs I want to trade (or watch for trades) and print signals based on various factors so I can quickly...

Hi Pres78

Great to have you back on board all sounds good to me.

Lets get on with it.

Sent you a PM. cheers Clive.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,236
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:08am Aug 6, 2014 3:08am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Wow, thats awesome George and your timing couldn't of been better was just about to give up on the whole forex trading idea full stop!!! Last night I went to bed after checking chart after chart and searching for the all elusive answer. Desperately fed up and seriously considering giving it all up!! But by the strangest coincidence I woke up this morning with a massive light bulb moment and that added to your brilliant post I've decided to crack on and never give up!!! Thanks George you're a star and don't worry I will never give up I am...
Cheers Clive

We're all in this together, and can make it work.

I'm trying to download your indicators and template and open the M1 charts on my laptop and will test to see if I can contribute meaningfully to this great system you have shared. Will check my PM and respond later as I have to go now - have an early morning appointment.

Cheers, and God bless
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,237
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:20am Aug 6, 2014 3:20am
One thing I feel I should add before I go, in case it helps someone:

If we are trading strength and weakness with whatever system we use, we should always have a slight edge. Therefore if that edge does not get me into profit within 30 minutes, I will seriously consider closing the trade. If it is trading sideways, I will hang around for 30 - 60 minutes otherwise I will take a small loss and wait for another trade, so I can fight another day as there is always, friends, always another trade.

Shalom
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,238
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:34am Aug 6, 2014 3:34am
Quoting 919gilead
One thing I feel I should add before I go, in case it helps someone: If we are trading strength and weakness with whatever system we use, we should always have a slight edge. Therefore if that edge does not get me into profit within 30 minutes, I will seriously consider closing the trade. If it is trading sideways, I will hang around for 30 - 60 minutes otherwise I will take a small loss and wait for another trade, so I can fight another day as there is always, friends, always another trade. Shalom
Agreed and the beauty here is that if things become clearer on the pair moving sideways theres generally another entry that doesn't give up too many pips. The typical range break out and pull back to test the break out level.
  • #1,239
  • Aug 6, 2014 10:49am Aug 6, 2014 10:49am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Agreed and the beauty here is that if things become clearer on the pair moving sideways theres generally another entry that doesn't give up too many pips. The typical range break out and pull back to test the break out level.
Good thought and something to note. I generally would have just gone to another pair but will now keep an eye on that kind of pair moving sideways and just set alarms above & below the range, for a possible breakout.

Cheers
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #1,240
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:15pm Aug 6, 2014 12:15pm
From the setup Vantage and Pres78 have talked about, is there any way to create an alert when the combination of the 210 CCI crosses the 100 and the 14 CCI was made its pullback to opposite side for a possible entry? Clive does have an alert when the 210 CCI crosses the 100 but its a lot of alerts when the 14 CCI has not done its pullback like it needs to do. Dont know if that makes any sense.
9 traders viewing now