Trading is as simple as ABCD

Banked 18.9 pips there as it faltered a bit had a couple of sideways candles so pulled the plug, maybe a bit early but to be honest I get fed up with being up in so many trades then just sit there watching it all disappear in a flash.



Anyway theres always another chance to get back in and I quite fancy this 1.5775 level for another entry, trouble is the main news of the day is due at 1000hrs so do I really want to get back in now??? Trouble is its setting up so nicely I'm very tempted....



Not sure whats for the best????

Nope!! Decided to leave it alone till after the news, made myself a nice cup of tea instead, hmmm delicious, just can't beat a nice cuppa tea.

Interesting how London picked up that overnight oversold situation?? That seems to be working out ok and well worth keeping an eye on those overnight movers thats for sure. Anything looking way overbought or sold first thing in the morning is providing nice liquidity to the "Good Old London Boys" , thats for sure. Wander if the same thing will happen when NYO kicks off??

Whilst I'm waiting for the news to pass just want to share some thoughts on holding through a trend. Whenever I look back at the end of a session I can see nice long 1 minute trends sometimes going 50, 60 even 100 plus pips sometimes and I think "Why didn't I catch that and hold it??" . Take today for example would I be better off holding my first entry and adding at every opportunity?? maybe this is the start of a 100 pip run???

Then again look at GBPNZD that had almost the identical setup to EURNZD but it has gone no where!! If I had chosen GBPNZD instead of EURNZD I may of even been staring at a loss!! My point is its so easy to see them looking back but not so easy looking forward.

OK lets assume we get past the first hurdle and choose the right pair like today, now I have the dilemma , do I hold or fold??? How do I know which is the best option? It won't be till the end of the day that I will know the answer to that question. How can I assess whilst in a trade what to do??? Its exactly the same dilemma for longer term traders too, how do you know when you've caught a trend?? How do you know whether to hold or fold?? Problem with the longer term stuff is it might take days or weeks before its apparent you should of folded and all that times been lost. Thats another reason I trade 1 minute charts I get to know one way or the other pretty quickly and can move onto another trade asap. Theres always another setup just around the corner on my beloved 1 minute timeframe.

One way is to trail out to a close. In other words in an uptrend just trail up your stops below every HL until stopped out or trail down your stop above evry LH in a downtrend until stopped out. Trouble is I find I would get stopped out for very few pips most of the time after being up a lot more durring the trade. Also in my experience trading 1 minute charts more often than not it gives you 5 waves at most and thats it, so assuming we need wave 1 to tell us we've got a possible setup , wave 2 as our pullback, then we enter on wave 3 at best and hold through wave 5, that 70% of the time would be it.

My thoughts right now are that whilst its very easy to see these trends after they've happened, its very hard to catch these strong trenders even on a 1 minute chart never mind the longer timeframe charts. I believe we should just take 2 entries at max thats wave 3 and 5 , maybe wave 1 if we're feeling brave???

I just took a loser trying to continue that EURNZD trade so yet again the trend ends after 5 waves!! Think I'm going to have to revise this strategy again as these continuation trades are letting me down time after time yet my reversals are starting to give me results. I feel its a simple case of trading high probability trades and that means to me selling these over bought 15 min CCI's and buying oversold ones like this morning. Sure sometimes a pair will stay overbought or sold for a while but they are the low probability setups, the higher ones are the reversals from overbought/sold markets.

Gotta go to work so more on this subject later I'm definately changing my setups only looking to take first 2 trades and thats it!! Will miss out on those longer trends but to be honest they are the low probability setups that are hard to catch and even harder to hold IMHO.

Catch you later guys...

You're welcome Clive I like your system too but I already have a system that makes me pips and I'm just tweaking a little here and there, not to bring to place of perfection but to something close that I can trade with low risk and low stress, and I have always believed the relative currency strength/weakness will do that. I look for the 1-2-3 price wave, which is similar to your style and this was what attracted me here.

I like the new strength meter LITEchild uploaded here as it slows me down from entering a trade even when my other strength meters says to enter but when it agrees with my other strength meter, I pull the trigger like a sniper who has been waiting and watching. But I'm still testing it. I normally do not enter a trade in the face of any pivot point in the way but I did with that EURAUD and it went for 30 pips in about 40 minutes with little or no DD. Still testing as it's too early to conclude.

Anyway, yes we should chat sometime, and will keep dropping in once in awhile.

Take care, and more green pips for you in the new month.

Shalom

George

You're lucky George - strength meter indi won't load for me (Alpari mt4 build 670)

I hope mine would continue to work as today is the last day of support by MT4 for build 509 and I have to upgrade from tomorrow but I won't until they force me

Try putting the indicator under both Experts\indicators and MQL4\indicators as I had the same problem with another indicator on FxPro demo account, which already upgraded to build 670 and the indicator is working fine after copying it into both folders.

Cheers Handy

Oooops had a loser early today but not an intentional trade it was an accident as I left my trailing entry EA on one of my charts so when I opened my charts it placed a buy entry on EURNZD which lost before I even noticed it was there!!! Noticed the 2nd one and closed that out ok at BE. Oh well lesson learned there, better to learn it on a demo than on a live account I guess thats what demos are for.

Morning analysis time be it a bit late. GBP news at 09.30hrs this morning but of course the Big news of today is NFP at 13.30 this afternoon so always worth a look for a post News trade later if it sets up OK. With a post news trade I'm just looking for the top 1 min TT about 30 mins after the release to see if theres any clean ABCD's setting up in any USD pairs.



Overnight movers well the usual suspects GBPNZD and EURNZD and it appears they have worked nicely again this morning but I'm too late to the party so will leave them unless they give me a clear continuation entry. GBPAUD and EURAUD are another contenders this morning and definately looking a bit toppy on their 15 min charts so will keep an eye on them going back down.



Lastly the current top 4 1 min TT's all look overbought to me so not really interested in continuation trade setups but will keep an eye out for them reversing thats for sure especially GBPAUD and EURAUD.



Thats it for me lets see what happens next just be aware of GBP news at 09.30hrs.

Here's something I find quite interesting, just before a GBP news release GBP strength right across the board??

Hmmm does someone know something about the forth coming news release I wander???? Surely not???????

If this is a positive release for GBP then maybe we should look into a pre-news release strategy as well as a post news strategy??? Lets see what happens when the news comes out??

Obviously not the case so much for that idea... Think I'l just stick to post news trades.

Hi Clive

I have been quite quiet of late posting but just wanted to say thanks for putting the system up (not the diversions but the system as intended). When I first saw your thread I looked at your trading and rapidly moved on. Don't know why I took a 2nd look but very glad I did. Day after day successful system moves, so thanks again.

Stick to system theres more than enough there to fill yer boots!

Final point for the day as I'm switching off now, I've read somewhere discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments!!

Hi Mr V

Yep I reckon you're right about the discipline, thats a vital ingredient of trading for sure and today I had a bit of fun trading GBPJPY before NFP and durring NFP but just a bit of madness really just playing about not system trades of any sort, just bored I guess so yep discipline is key. Wouldn't of done any of it with real money of course but not just ready for that just yet still need to get a track record of successful trades going. But I'm close very close to an excellent strategy here just needs a little tweaking and a large dollop of discipline.

By the way Mr V have you had any success yet with the system trades??? I'm struggling to capture those continuation trades as many times they setup over the +/-100 levels but then turn on me quickly, in fact I have almost stopped taking them now, preferring the reversal type setups where I can get in a bit earlier, wave 3 trades. I think the "system trades" are probably wave 3 on 5 min charts. I've got some thoughts on it to share over the weekend.

This week up to today was relatively quiet with not a lot of follow through but thats the discipline I need to not trade when nothings happening and also to only trade when price is moving one way or the other strongly. I'm getting there everyday it gets a little better and when I make mistakes it only highlights how I need to stay focused and on track to be a successful trader.

Well thats another week over lost 53% this week but as 49% of it was today messing about and 10% I didn't even intend to trade, so not too disappointed. Know exactly whats going wrong so can soon put it right. Learnt a lot as usual and looking forward to next week when I will be looking to trade every LO and as many NYOs as work allows. Will stay in check next week and only take serious trades and if theres nothing to trade will sit on my hands and stay out.

Learnt a lot this week so have got some ideas about the way forward , always looking to improve things so will post up some thoughts over the weekend if I get some spare time.

Stay with me guys I'm getting there and I'm sure its a journey many of you can relate to as well, we all have to find our own way to become successful traders and this is mine. Its not enough to have a good system or good price action reading skills or discipline or money management on their own, we have to have them all and that takes time.

See you next week.....

Hello Clive,
Condolences to you and your family for your loss. I lost my Mother in Feb of this year do to Lou Gehrig,s disease, I'm thankful that for her sake the disease to her quickly and wasn't a long drawn out ordeal. My siblings and I are still trying to get over the shock, but in time we'll except it and continue on with the memories of such a wonderful person, as I'm sure you and your family will also do.
Thanks for sharing your trading method, how simple and fascinating. I have to admit I haven't read past page 2, but I put your system to work immediately on my "Live" account.....OTB 34 pips...fantastic !!!!!
I think now I'll go back to reading your thread..

MTPockets

Hi MTpockets

Thanks for your kind words , only on page 2 Ha Ha you've got some interesting reading ahead of you.

Its a good strategy but still a bit of work in progress for me and my discipline to trade it but I'm getting there.

The theory is simple enough trade the strongest trending 1 min charts in the direction of the 15 min momentum selling peaks and buying dips from the 1 min CCI. Simple ABCD moves. Buy when price is going up sell when going down if you don't know which way its going find another chart where the direction is obvious.

Have fun any questions fire away.

Clive,
Granted I've just started with this easy to follow system. I've also found that if I go up a couple of Timeframes (OANDA has 2, 3 ,4 minute charts) everything falls into place.
Frankly , I'm hooked on this scalping system you've shared

MTPockets

Thanks a lot Clive for everything you share with us.

I only found this thread yesterday and I want to know How many indicators do you use on the chart and where can i download them ?

Hi Clive
Yes had some great success with system combined with market basics. Looking to trade first move (after cci210 hits +100 or -100) in and around LO and follow from that. If market has had quick 50-70 pick move then happy to then leave until US open. I avoid pre US open signals (I previously described that as weak 1 hr CT candles) that go against Londons direction (strong engulfing moves would be different) looking for US to continue the trend.

Best signals are where gbp, aud, jpy or eur uniformly strong/weak across the board. I do like to see pairs agreeing e.g. ej, gj. Sometimes obviously 1 pair leads the way. If correlating pairs fall into line I am trying to leave in longer. The next goal is to start trying to get into 2 or 3 trades across these pairs if first entry is at or close to BE, this obviously refers to trades where the pairs are not moving at the same time.

I am so happy actually looking to make this by far the main trading focus, we'll see how the plan plays out.

Hello friends, I had looking this thread since a few weeks and I think is awesome. I been studied for several days and doing mi personal backtesting. I trade 5M for now, because I have a personal small account and don´t like big SL that takes a big % in one trade, when my money grow up I will get the 15M TF until arrive to 1H TF that I like. I read the all 61 pages paying all my atention, and the work have you done is really great. Mr.V, pres78 and Clive has developed a real usefull and simple sistem that works fantastic. Like Mr.V and Pres78 say in a lot of posts is just follow the rules with discipline and patience. Keep going forward and I really hope to be part of this trip.

I always said "The greatest waterfalls born from a single drop of water".


PD: Sorry for my english, is not my born language.

Hi MTPockets

Glad you like it and yes it works on any timeframe as its based on only trading strong trending pairs in whatever timeframe you trade. You will find that momentum indicators work very well on strong trending pairs.

Can't emphasise enough "strong trending" pairs only!!! First filter and most important!!! Then just look for qualifying ABCD moves, usually the 1 min TT indicates the AB move then just wait for the BC or pullback. If clean hit it!!!

Very very simple, not easy but simple.

Wow that all sounds awesome Mr V. so glad you're having some success with this method. I like your thinking too!!

Interesting that you say "I am so happy actually looking to make this by far the main trading focus" as I too am combining it with your original thread about catching the first pullback as see that as a major contributing factor in helping me to achieve higher RR's. Basically I want to catch that first pullback after wave 1 so entering on wave 3. Wave 3 to me is the meat of the move so important to catch it and then its followed by wave 5, which generally is a weaker move struggling to pass point B. But whatever happens to wave 5 thats it for me, 2 entries only for me then close it out, bank my profits and watch what happens.

My thinking is that by then the 15 min CCI will be overbought/sold and we can expect a counter trend move ABC which will soak up our profits if we attempt to hold through it.. After this move we should look for either a continuation or a reversal. I'm finding that more times than not it will reverse from here so we need to look for evidence of a continuing strength in the trend or leave well alone. Maybe even consider a reversal trade if strong evidence to support it eg a strong AB the other way etc.

Guess what I'm saying is be careful of assuming that we've always caught the London breakout as they are not that easy to catch going forward, nice but definitely not easy.... very clear after the fact but not easy going forward. My nemesis in the past is to assume every trade I catch will keep going whereas in fact the opposite is true. So often I have sat there thinking I'm going to get 50 to 70 pips from this move when in fact I sit there and watch my profits disappear as the overbought or sold market reverses taking my potential profits with it. More often than not we can only rely on 2 moves and not much more, thats the high probability outcome of our entry setup.

Sure it would be great to catch these 50 - 70 pip moves but I don't believe they will be our bread and butter, they are more the icing on the cake if we're lucky enough to catch one.

I say this from my experience but maybe you've found a way to identify them before hand or when we've caught one using your experience??? If so would you care to share??? How do we know when to hold and when to fold??? Always the crucial question with any successful trading strategy???

I would say from my experience and looking back through LO's that more often than not the LO breakout is a GBP pair, but is that news driven I wander????

If so I have got a little idea forming on how we can take advantage of that too, as shared here on Vigovski's thread "High Impact News System" http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...493948&page=38 post 760 and 761. Will test it this week on any GBP news releases.

There's something else I want to share but will start another post on it later.

Nice to know you're still here Mr V. and making it work lets see how we can do trading August???

Very quick morning analysis.

News items of interest only a GBP release at 09.30 hrs which I will keep an eye on plus a couple of EUR oranges at 0800hrs etc to watch for EUR reaction afterwards and going to try out a GBP pre-news release as per my posts on High impact news system thread. Buy or sell 09..29hrs candle depending on its colour 15 seconds b4 news release.

Overnight movers nothing really but interested in buying GBPJPY as such a big move down Friday of about 125 pips so could go up today 70% of that move down then maybe continue back down again, who knows but we will be watching out for that for sure.

Right now 1 min TT's setting up nicely for exactly that with GBP strength building and a strong GBPJPY top of TT's so waiting for pullback.



Lets see how it pans out???

August with summer hols can be quieter but generally if system is solid it will bring trades.

OK what I look for (but definitely do not always get right) is to see if correlating pairs are agreeing or not (clean a b c's, good angle/separation on ma's). If they are theres obviously uniform strength/weakness across the board and therefore more than likely to have better movement. If not then I'd be looking to bail anywhere from +15. For example this morning GJ gave a very smooth signal after LO but other GBP pairs charts were definitely not looking as clean. GU was a mess perhaps a combo of Monday morning blues or waiting for news.

Then you have to accept your trading strategy, where are likely exits at SR levels or D/W pivots. You will have losers, BE's so be it, if your strategy is to get 20-30 and you sacrifice some BE's in that pursuit that's trading you can't win them all. For me at the moment 20 pips = 5% from 2.5% risk. I am happy with that as I know I'll stumble every now and then on some of the weeks big moves (like I said when correlating pairs are all agreeing most likely). I also know that (with better focus on my part to catch) sometimes 1 pair will start and minutes later other correlating pairs will fall in line and you'll get multiple trades in one direction (again this is still a goal and I'd be looking at 1st trade to be at/close to BE otherwise risk gets too high).

So in summary if correlated pairs agreeing with clean charts/good A+S on ma's then I'll try for bigger moves. If entry was clean and other charts not falling in line that's a warning to exit.