AUD/USD

Pretty sure NFP and Unemployment Rate will send this sinking down into the ocean some more.

The waiting seems to be working ............

Buyer,watch out.because red news will be coming.

I could create globalized influence in which will cause more traders will probably engage in more selling orders in which could benefit us all on a great level.

Everybody should be selling for the red news.

The best retails can do is riding the wave don't go against it ......

But in no way can create the wave ..........

Added Long at 0.9290 zone...
Pair is OverSold..
Should see around 50-70 pips upside retrace..

Analysis of the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate @ 5:30 AM on August 1st, 2014

Both NFP and Unemployment rate forecasts are reasonable enough for the actual numbers will likely boost the US dollar in a strong positive direction. NFP has proven to boost the value of the US dollar for the last three months reliably. The forecast is still relatively low enough for the actual number to be either neutral or have a positive effect, 231k to 300k+. If NFP has results in which are lower than the forecast then I suppose the US dollar will overpower the also predictable news and predictability of the Unemployment Rate, both of which NFP/Unemployment Rate going hand in hand for the last 4 months.

One interesting thing to note by analyzing the chart of the NFP has slowly increased from the beginning of the year so there is a higher than 50% probability that the there will be 231,000 new jobs reported. Also paying attention to the Unemployed Rate from early 2010, there has been a steady and predictable decrease in the % of Unemployment Rate so there is a good possibility that the actual will be either 6.1%, 6.0%, or even 5.9%.

What information I'm missing out on is the volume affected from both individual news sources from NFP and the Unemployment Rate but I am assuming they usually go hand in hand but with NFP being the stronger piece of news here.

The possibilities of the scenarios in which could unfold

66%-75% Probability
Main Scenario A

NFP will have a 66-75% or higher chance to actually help the US dollar due to the reliability of the last seven months performance showing predictability although the forecast bar was set pretty high at 231k but definitely more than a 50% chance that the actuals will be at 231k or higher therefore boosting the value of the US dollar creating a lot of buy orders.
The Unemployment Rate will continue to be at 6.1%, 6.0%, or even 5.9% also boosting the value of the US dollar creating a lot of buy orders as well.
Small chance for the predictable trend of the Unemployment Rate to trace a 0.1%+ and will cause the US dollar to actually decrease.
Summary: NFP will have a neutral/positive effect and the Unemployment Rate will have a neutral/positive effect. Buying order frenzy in which will cause an increase in value for the US Dollar anywhere from 10 to 60 pips 30 seconds to 15 minutes causing AUDUSD to sink even deeper into the ocean.

Alternative Scenario A (Less likely)

NFP will have a neutral effect.
Unemployment Rate will have a neutral affect and/or a slight positive effect.

AUDUSD will experience a high level of volume of trades and whipsaw but will result in a 5-10 pip increase.

Alternative Scenario B (Less likely)

NFP will have a negative effect. (Strong selling orders)
Unemployment Rate will have a neutral/positive effect. (Slightly strong buying orders)

Purposely didn't include some of the variations of the Main Scenario of what could happen.

Let's see what will happen.

So ...............

whats your target ?

Looks like possibilities of minor retracements anywhere from 1 to 15 pips up until news time but it still looks like the bear is too strong unless the news affects the US dollar negatively only then will there be an opportunity for longer and more prominent retracements.

Retracement seems about due with purely technical analysis but you have to factor in the news too.

Upward or descent after the news Is your expectations negative news

Positive news for NFP (Medium to High Probability) and Unemployment Rate (High Probability) is what I'm thinking...

AUDUSD therefore has a Medium to High probability that it will continue to descend and won't form an official retracement.

​Nasty decline there in PPI, understandably alot of it was off oil price declines which are exacerbated by currency strength relative to last quarter. Surprise is here:

1. mainly due to falls in the prices received for other transport equipment manufacturing (-3.5%), computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (-3.4%) and other agriculture (-5.7%).
   
   Declines in prices for CAPEX goods basically, thats interest and a bit harder to explain.
   
   
   I added to shorts on the China PMI pop to 0.9415. Look for this to crack 0.90 by end of August, one the best trending pairs out there right now

The cutting of the carbon tax has being going through the senate for the past few months and lately got passed. So businesses now are expected to lower prices from the extra fee's that were introduced when the carbon tax was introduced. Whether they will pass on the savings to consumers has been an issue here lately. Wondering if this has something to do with the PPI negative number. Smells like price fixing.

whoa...you guys "beat" carbon taxation!!?? AWESOME!

BOJ is going to speak later on and not expecting much movement after recent data until US labor

It was the promise of the new government and how they won votes.

I have observed over the last 2 years that this forum is very quiet when Aus is going down but very popular when it is going up or looking like it is going up.
Doesn't anyone like making money on the way down? Money can be made in both directions people.

Funny, thought it was the other way around ... generally I think the sellers on this forum are louder than the buyers.