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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,021
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:14am Jul 31, 2014 8:14am
Quoting binnie
POUND FINAL ANALYSIS Hi guys - I have woken up from a good nite's sleep to see that USA had good RED news and even though I closed all of the trade as a safeguard, it was rewarding to see that my calculated target level was hit. Remember I was using the Daily chart to look at a bigger picture even though my trade was taken from the H4. Anyway - hope this helps someone in a nice way. {image} {image}
congrat! nice set up!
Yvon
  • #28,022
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:29am Jul 31, 2014 8:29am
Quoting binnie
{quote} What do you think about the Aussie now my friend Unfortunate that I was still in the pound trade so was not allowed to take my Aussie setup . Bugger - it smashed down 60 pips.... Still - rules is rules as they say...
As I mentionned, I wasn't sure about the trade, but it has all my attention.That's why I just put a small SL and took the trade,
this was a nice shot. thanks.
I am still in, maybe that a 1000feet diver, well at least he is in the air , I does quacks like one, will just see if it dive like one, then if it is the case, it must be a 1000feet diver!.
Yvon
  • #28,023
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:35am Jul 31, 2014 8:35am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Yvon, I haven't got any answer to your post yet.
there is no hurry about that Nic.
just take your time, I am sure you will get your diploma anyway.
Yvon
  • #28,024
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:56am Jul 31, 2014 8:56am
Quoting nic73
Now about trading between 21ema and 89sma. I have this issue whereby I am not sure if a pull back has occurred. Please see comment within the charts below. {image}{image}

Hi Nic,
"I am not sure if a pull back has occurred":

your reference for anything is always the 4hrs chart. the 1hr chart is for a fine tuning for what is going on on the 4hrs chart. the 1hrs or lower time frame is a "zooming in" in order to pick the best of want you want on the 4hrs chart , I do not see a draw that would represent the 4hrs 21ema on the 1 hrs chart. so you would know more easily if , in this case( the pull back) as occured.
Yvon
  • #28,025
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:43am Jul 31, 2014 11:43am
Hello everyone,

today i was busy, and now i see the charts of my two trades...
EUR/USD i have my take profit at 1.33211 that is a little above the 365 MA of weekly chart.
GBP/USD... !!! I put my take profit at 1.68549 that is in the same place of the 21MA of weekly chart... and now i am seeing that the price arrived at 1.68564, and came back up again! Just for 1,5 pip i didn't take profit! What do you think about the price now? Will it go down again or what?
This maybe a lesson for me to put the take profit little bit higher that MA of reference and of support, resistance...

I Attatch the screenshot of GBPUSD 4HR TF

Mirko
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  • #28,026
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:00pm Jul 31, 2014 12:00pm
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  • #28,027
  • Edited Aug 1, 2014 7:59am Jul 31, 2014 12:52pm | Edited Aug 1, 2014 7:59am
GBPUSD: too bad! hit again by SL- I don't think the ride down is over.

+80 pips

that's my problem, was hit, stop loss too close again , I got back in (second chart)
now in a free trade with an advance of about 50 pips gain.
now 37pips secured ----and closed trade +37 gain...weekend!

the blue line there is the 21ema on the weekly, which is flat, flat means to me that price could fluctuate both side of the 21ema, since the price already went above, below was next.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 140731GBPUSD.png Size: 118 KB
Yvon
  • #28,028
  • Edited Aug 1, 2014 9:30am Jul 31, 2014 1:02pm | Edited Aug 1, 2014 9:30am
NZDUSD: closed trade. hit by SL! what a lace to put a SL. Don't remember when and why I put it there since close to 21ema, another TC could be there.
but will see!
the ride down not over...my view. will see...

+40 pips

I got back in,( second chart) still my weakness of getting the SL too close!
the 21ema from the weekly is above the pair price (not shown here)
I was expecting a TC there ( see the yellow arrow on both chart)
hit by SL: lost 19 pips! cannot win them all,
but still thinking the ride down is not over, but will see, next week...weekend now!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 140731NZDUSD.png Size: 126 KB
Yvon
  • #28,029
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:54pm Jul 31, 2014 2:54pm
Good job,

Yvon!

Mirko
  • #28,030
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:51pm Jul 31, 2014 3:51pm
@ MATHUS

Hows your EuroAussie looking buddy. I still see some move toward that 200. Not a lot but a few pips if everything lines up.
Just be careful of the rules around price inside the 200 & 89 levels.
Just my take but hope it helps.
Have a neat day. Friday here so guess where I will be later on ????

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  • #28,031
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:21pm Jul 31, 2014 5:21pm
Quoting binnie
@ MATHUS Hows your EuroAussie looking buddy. I still see some move toward that 200. {image}
Was watching it head for 200. But now it seems to have lost moementum and it seems to be drifting along the S & R line (thats another thing i need to pay attention to S & R lines, thanks for pointing it out)

On the 4hr TF the MACD is forming an RT. On the one hour TF i see bearish divergence on the MACD. Is it right to look at a 1 hour TF to predict the direction of the 4hr TF?

Is it going to head back down to the 89 and 21 or will it go into cosolidation between 89 and 200. Not sure what I should be looking for to infer the direction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,032
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:58pm Jul 31, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting Mathus
{quote} Was watching it head for 200. But now it seems to have lost moementum and it seems to be drifting along the S & R line (thats another thing i need to pay attention to S & R lines, thanks for pointing it out) On the 4hr TF the MACD is forming an RT. On the one hour TF i see bearish divergence on the MACD. Is it right to look at a 1 hour TF to predict the direction of the 4hr TF? Is it going to head back down to the 89 and 21 or will it go into cosolidation between 89 and 200. Not sure what I should be looking for to infer the direction. {image}...
Hi Mathus,
The area between the 89 & 200 is literally " no-mans' land ". If consolidation starts to form ( & you can clearly see that on the H1 already ) then you must decide if you want to play between the boundaries of the 2 ma's or wait until price makes its way out of the ranging zone. Remember what is likely to happen - as Phillip repeats over & over - something is building here. Get ready for some strong action . That's what I would do unless there is clear bouncing between the 89 & 200. That has not happened yet so will wait & see.
We might need other opinions on this but IMHO , we are using the H4 chart to determine set ups. The Lower T/Frames are generally used for fine tuning entries etc. While I am learning the H4 strategy, I will play by the rules that a trigger to enter will be on the close of the H4 candle AND only with the supporting Macd signals. ( TC for continuation or RT/RB for counter-trend ). The experienced traders can use the H1 & M15 etc for early entry techniques but this is another area of learning for me anyway. I gotta master this part first ( LOL).
Meantime - I will continue to use the H4 for signals & entries but will take special note of the Daily & Weekly to show me where I can anticipate price to go and also where there could be some trouble spots on the journey ( T/Lines , S & R, the ma's themselves.) From what I am learning from other traders here , levels on the larger Timeframes are more reliable. Using the Higher T/Frames in the last 3 weeks has been a bit of a LIGHT -ON for me
  • #28,033
  • Jul 31, 2014 7:32pm Jul 31, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting trademin
NZDUSD: closed trade. hit by SL! what a lace to put a SL. Don't remember when and why I put it there since close to 21ema, another TC could be there. but will see! the ride down not over...my view. will see... +40 pips {image}
Similar case here. I took the sell trade yesterday after the pull back to 21ema and move away. Was making nice 12+ pips but before I went to bed, I forgot to set the SL to entry price so than in any case should the market pull back, I would be stopped out at the BE. But this morning, the trade is running at a 14pips loss. Now it has pulled back to 21ema and keeping my fingers crossed that the market will move away again. Good thing, this is on demo account.
  • #28,034
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:13pm Jul 31, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting trademin
NZDUSD: closed trade. hit by SL! what a lace to put a SL. Don't remember when and why I put it there since close to 21ema, another TC could be there. but will see! the ride down not over...my view. will see... +40 pips {image}
Hi,

Thank you for your reply on my post on AUDNZD.

Referring to the Kiwi you traded, how do you decide the SL. I mean, you entered a trade then you set a (initial) SL. Then when the market has move and making profit you adjust your SL so that you make some pips or at least BE. Right? So my question is where or how do you decided the SL after some profitable gain?

Nicholas
  • #28,035
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:59pm Jul 31, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi, Thank you for your reply on my post on AUDNZD. Referring to the Kiwi you traded, how do you decide the SL. I mean, you entered a trade then you set a (initial) SL. Then when the market has move and making profit you adjust your SL so that you make some pips or at least BE. Right? So my question is where or how do you decided the SL after some profitable gain? Nicholas

hi Nic,

I guess it depends on your plan, what the R/R, ATR, targets, barriers.

The SL should be out of the main action,( above or belowthe 21ema) or movement of candle, when it gets closer to target, I bring the SL closer to action.

but if my trade is acting as planned, I am secured by the pair acting as planned and then the SL is out of action, since I know that the target is reachable.
Yvon
  • #28,036
  • Aug 1, 2014 5:09am Aug 1, 2014 5:09am
Hello everyone,

nice to read your opinion and share the information here.
Finally GBP/USD went down the 21 MA's weekly chart, where i put my take profit.
Whatching the daily chart there is below 100 pips, the 200 MA's... do you think it will be the possible target?
From the dalily chart the trend is full bearish, but watching the weekly chart i am not sure about it, maybe it bounce to 21 MA and go up again?
How is your tecnical analylis? Today is friday... maybe better to wait monday to see what happen?

It is ok my anilysis whatching the 4 hr, daily and weekly chart like i explained here?

Thanks you very much to everyone, this forum and this thread are AMAZING!

Mirko
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,037
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:21am Aug 1, 2014 7:21am
One thing I want to make sure that this point is clear.
When I look at daily or weekly chart to get an Idea where the pair is heading to(anticipate longer term), it is easier to get the possible target. Because they are the same one from the 4 hrs charts or any time frame. Because what is seen easily on the 4hrs or daily or else, is just because of a bunch of ticks that have been structure into candles, and those candle are structure in time frame. For sure most of the time we can see the last low on the left on the 4hrs chart as being a target, and that’s the way of referring to the 4hrs chart as anticipation, as you read from the tread, but for sure , on the daily or weekly is to find anticipation on longer term. But the decision time frame is on the4hrs chart
Yvon
  • #28,038
  • Aug 1, 2014 7:48am Aug 1, 2014 7:48am
EURUSD: closed trade , hit by SL (!)

+18 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140729EURUSD C.png Size: 111 KB
Yvon
  • #28,039
  • Aug 2, 2014 3:02am Aug 2, 2014 3:02am
WOW!! what happened to the thread. Good stuff.

For anyone interested and new to trading I would recommend buying forex tester 2. I've had it for 2months now and it has helped me allot. You can forward test this strategy and practice it. Much better than backtesting and it saves time. Attached is the MACD indicator for anyone interested.

I'm not promoting this program. I've looked everywhere for a pirated full version. You have to buy it. But if anyone knows of a cracked version feel free to post the link.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip MACD_BD_Color Two tone plus EMA.zip   54 KB | 451 downloads
  • #28,040
  • Aug 2, 2014 5:01am Aug 2, 2014 5:01am
Quoting trademin
One thing I want to make sure that this point is clear. When I look at daily or weekly chart to get an Idea where the pair is heading to(anticipate longer term), it is easier to get the possible target. Because they are the same one from the 4 hrs charts or any time frame. Because what is seen easily on the 4hrs or daily or else, is just because of a bunch of ticks that have been structure into candles, and those candle are structure in time frame. For sure most of the time we can see the last low on the left on the 4hrs chart as being a target,...
Goodmorning,

thank you Yvon, i guess i start to understand. The decision frame is h4, and with daily and weekly charts we can understand when also to put our take profit.

EUR USD ... also for me, with that strong going up hit my stop loss. I think now EUR USD is starting to have a up trend?

Good weekend to everyone,

Mirko
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