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  • #4,261
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:15pm Jul 30, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} YELP is skyrocketing.... $82 now...
I'm assuming they will be tested at $78+, if it opens around $80/81 then do that same trade with $82/83 or lower
  • #4,262
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:25pm Jul 30, 2014 3:25pm
well, it's been fun. Looking out to NFP, I'm still thinking we may be into a no news is good news cycle. I could be wrong about US stocks, though. Looking around the little world there might be no better place to park some cash. Bond yields in the EZ are cratering, no cratered. And if we see today's big move down in US Treasurys follow through in coming days/weeks, we might see a normal inverse correlation take hold there with the US indices and the latter put in new highs on strong moves. I'm headed for the beach, though. Have a good day, ya'll.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,263
  • Jul 30, 2014 3:26pm Jul 30, 2014 3:26pm
Damn just noticed where the USD is and if it doesn't take out $81.64 then it should retrace which may take the euro higher which will stop me out
  • #4,264
  • Edited Jul 31, 2014 8:47am Jul 30, 2014 6:59pm | Edited Jul 31, 2014 8:47am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ntina-defaults
"Just remember that the last 2 days have seen 'smart money' buy Argentine bonds and stocks to all-time record highs."

Damn, this has been my problem all along: my money is just dumb. I sure wish I could get me some o that smart money!

Smart money had connections and knew Arg. would default, ran up YPF share price to $45 at the open, then bought cheap puts under $40, laughing all the way to the bank when YPF trades < $35 tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,265
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:33am Jul 31, 2014 3:33am
Quoting The Fool
HLF whacked, but it has bygawd been a survivor, support at $50 tuff as nails, I might be a $50 put seller.... {image}
HLF dropped another $2.50 7/30, to $55.83. I still may be a put seller, see if I can catch the low before a bounce....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,266
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:06am Jul 31, 2014 9:06am
Great to finally see some vol return to the market. VIX above 15 would be fantastic for the option sellers

I've sold ES mini put at 1785 9/5 expiry. If NFP tomorrow exceed the forecast then it could be a nice pop back up. However, if NFP prints below forecast then the market could spiral further. I'm now sitting on my hands and keeping a decent proportion of my margin available in case the later occurs. It'll be an interesting day tomorrow!
  • #4,267
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:34am Jul 31, 2014 9:34am
good luck njr. I think we'll see a general slide through the Fall for the US indices, but it will not be a steep drop. midterm election jitters are gonna set in, I'd bet. I'm pretty well set up in bearish spreads which are printing green. Trading is easy when you're on the right side of the market...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,268
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:40am Jul 31, 2014 9:40am
Quoting The Fool
good luck njr. I think we'll see a general slide through the Fall for the US indices, but it will not be a steep drop. midterm election jitters are gonna set in, I'd bet. I'm pretty well set up in bearish spreads which are printing green. Trading is easy when you're on the right side of the market...
Thanks TF. You could be right about the slide in the indices and the Argentina default could be the catalyst that the bears have been waiting for. So far it looks like a pretty good start to a X% pullback. Let's see how it turns out. Best of luck with your trades and keep on the right side of the market
  • #4,269
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:42am Jul 31, 2014 9:42am
CSCO ic could be doing better, but I will hold on til Monday before rolling the put side, with luck it will bounce back above $25.50 before 8/8. Will want to make something on the short legs next week and redo them before the ER....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,270
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:57am Jul 31, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} CLOSED THE LONG EURO at 1.3389 for+12, and opened a short on euro at 1.388 with a s/l at 1.3402. If euro closed below 134.70 then the gates to hell are open imo mean 1.3370
still in the euro, came 1 pip to stopping me out, aldo the SPY butterfly test looking good
  • #4,271
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:59am Jul 31, 2014 9:59am
Quoting The Fool
Trading is easy when you're on the right side of the market...
Exactly. I took that YELP trade last night from dough guys. Entered only one spread, mostly from curiosity. But instead of just let that spread expire worthless, I bought it back. To often I bank trades early.

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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,272
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:12am Jul 31, 2014 11:12am
Quoting Cecil Gee
If we do have a one day siGnificant drop it could be tomorrow as its the last day of the month as new trading areas will be calculated for AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
You got that right Cecil.

TF, yours bearish bets on SSO looking good. Nice job.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,273
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:18am Jul 31, 2014 11:18am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} You got that right Cecil. TF, yours bearish bets on SSO looking good. Nice job.
thx, this has more room t go, a little bounce from here be nice as the spy butterfly test is rocking, I'll be doing more and more butterflies soon as they can be forgiving
  • #4,274
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:39am Jul 31, 2014 11:39am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} You got that right Cecil. TF, yours bearish bets on SSO looking good. Nice job.
Thanks, I got some good size on that too, could make my quarter.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,275
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:40am Jul 31, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} thx, this has more room t go, a little bounce from here be nice as the spy butterfly test is rocking, I'll be doing more and more butterflies soon as they can be forgiving
Yep I need to paper trade those, look promising, hope you'll keep showing us some of yours, thanks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,276
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:53am Jul 31, 2014 11:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep I need to paper trade those, look promising, hope you'll keep showing us some of yours, thanks.
I think there just great, I'm looking in to increasing the R-R with these, need to work through the mechanics
  • #4,277
  • Edited 3:03pm Jul 31, 2014 2:15pm | Edited 3:03pm
So, LNKD and TSLA ER's in AH... Any miss on a day like this, and they will sink big time. I am expecting 10%+ moves on both of them.

Estimated move of 7.7% on LNKD (news from IB platform) seems to me that it will blow that. Thinking of wide IC (150/155 + 205/210) or Bear Call Spread, say 200/205... hm...

Estimated move of 8.8% on TSLA (news from IB platform, 225 weekly straddle)... it will blow that IMO.

Or, I will just eat some popcorn, and prepare myself for next week and maybe buy some strangles in advance (FSLR, GRPN, REGN, TTWO, SCTY, SFUN, SSYS, ZNGA....)

Update: Did not get a fill on LNKD bear call spread, had a lot to do today and was late. Did not tried anything on TSLA
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,278
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:08pm Jul 31, 2014 3:08pm
Wow - what a day!

Looks like the bulls are running scared for the moment. Great to see the VIX up again and lots of opportunities for selling premium!

Sold some ES mini and holding fire on the rest of my margin to see what the NFPs deliver tomorrow. SPX only pulled back 2% today which is not much given the amazing run it has had over the past few years. If the market tanks again tomorrow, I'll look to sell more PUTs around the 0.05 - 0.1 delta!

Good luck to all on taking advantage of the current market! There's decent money to be made from this move
  • #4,279
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:33pm Jul 31, 2014 4:33pm
Quoting njr
Good luck to all on taking advantage of the current market! There's decent money to be made from this move
Yep, great to see some real action. I wouldn't bet on the bottom totally dropping out of the US indices, though, but I would bet at least on seeing volatile moves more often from here on out to the US elections (early November)....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,280
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:24am Aug 1, 2014 8:24am
Quoting StrayDog
So, LNKD and TSLA ER's in AH...

I was wrong expecting that both companies would move beyond estimations. TSLA hardly moved (a bit volatile in AH only)... Did not have the cojones for IC there. Also was bearish on LNKD

Interesting week ahead with lots of ER's. Waiting to see ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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