The theater - trading analysis and setups

GBP/USD: If the cable does drop further, I'll be monitoring that first support area (red dotted line). If price crosses that area and closes below the major pullback range (orange box) with momentum then we can probably expect it to drop further to next areas of support.. Let's see what happens

My EURUSD short got stopped out at BE yesterday, was being too greedy and didnt take any profit. Well, at least it is not a loss..

How's your GBPUSD long doing? That was a nasty spike down this morning

Decided to put the stop below an m1 minor swing and got stopped out with a dozen or more of + ticks of gain, a predictable outcome for a not great trade.
today gbp started the day shitting the bed with those nasty manufacturing production numbers, and then found support - guess where - yes the same damn area we was talking the last days; of course it found support there NOT becouse that was a clear support area but becouse whiteout drew a line there .
It found support but despite the d1 will close - probably - with a nice tail, i am not so excited atm, safe thing to do is wait - chinese data tonight - and let'see how LO and then NY will play this tomorrow and in the very next days.
Just scalped today, little bite here and there..

GBP/JPY missed my pending order by 5pips while I was sleeping... bought late @ 174.00 and will possibly buy again if it retraces to the support area again to average out. Will monitor closely.

Hi pierre, indeed that was a very nice area to look for a reaction, with some nice history too around december 2013 - jan 2014, has value even on the weekley - a lot of "pure" s/d trader were watching that area for obvious reason, best and safe trade imho, was below on the retest after the friday low - see couple of post above - i took a couple of nice ride from there. Looking the higher timeframe we have had a nice bullish candle that had break the previous high and crushed a lot of seller that were playing that kind of big range that you could see of a week chart - was not exactly a range but you got the idea -. now is the turn to crush the early long, will see where if bulls wonna still ride this one and from where. be carefoul

i can't use limit order, i like to took my trade on the very lower time frame with very tight stops, i need to watch how price behaves live.
my short term chart

Almost marked the same area on the gbpjpy, whiteout. Did you take the trade? I was asleep when it went into that area unfortunately.

If today closes under yesterdays low there's a chance we could see it drop further to test lower levels, just have to keep a close eye out on it.

GBPUSD:

So we got the FOMC minutes coming up in 15 mins.

In the daily chart there are a lot of tails the last days which suggests buying?
Also if we zoom in on the hourly, every time the price touched our blue rectangle zone it spiked. Which to me suggest buying, but price didnt move any higher.
Im not sure so wont trade, might be completely wrong!

Sounds very intresting.. whiteout....
but before I make any comments... it seems, I need to go read about supply and demand a lot... and then dare to speak here Thanks buddy.... to taking effort to discuss your methods and sharing your wisdom

your analysis, as far as I'm concerned, is a nice one. To recap: We saw buyers taking support from that area in the last days, with no great reaction so far, we knew is a minus support area and that there are stronger one's below. we knew what we have to look for, cluster of order around that area, watch if they are respected or not, or if they are absorbed, we knew that in the higher time frames we come from a strong buying [trend] and then the last weekley candle has broken a prevoius high/supply [2009.08.01] to land in an area that has proved has source of strong imbalance between supply and demand in the past, a nice s/r area so to say. we don't know - for now but that is the pourpouse of watching pa - if long term buyers - the great majority or only a part of them - will take profit here or if new buyers will come in on the support levels, again that's why we look for price action and price structure.
That's is what we know and what we don't know, rest is use the brain, take position respecting your risk profile if all the ducks are aligned, and don't get lost in absurd theorys, hypothesys, don't chase financial "expert", ridiculous and useless indicators, and keep in control your finger, fat finger die first*. keep it simple.

News usually are used by the professional money to moves price in their favourite direction or to absord quickly new order to fill their positon [the pullbacks where less stronger/smart player get's trapped]. enter in a position during the news or or immediately after is dangerous, better let the dust settle, this is true for all of us, but expecially for newcomers,
but it is your life, you know your skill, the choice is yours..just don't complain later, you were warned. enter immidiately before a news is also dangerous, big players are usually already in, well above/below current price, market are very thin before the news.

took different position today on cable, chart later.

nope, took only position on the 30 of june for a quick scalp.

you are welcome vinforex


*Hy. My name is whiteout and i have a problem..

a bit 'late with the promises charts, but it was a loooooong day
yesterday trade on gu, last one with some details.
analysis is always the same, bull come in at s/r area but price goes nowhere. not so exciting for bulls atm. will not touch this fecker anymore whitout some clear price structure.
Today had some loss, always on cable, and catched what could become a little nice banger [or notingh] on ndz/usd.

Today gbp, after a week of pain looks like buyers have left the office in advance
easy peasy stuff if you have followed the previous post
i am in similar trade in gpy/jpy [chart later but if you are with me since the start well, you probably already know why and where i have a position]
banked some pips on nzu/usd and a catched banger in ucad [was a scalp it tourned into something more.]
no loss until now.
friday, London is closing, maybe is a good idea protect your money if you have a position.

well, protect the money was indeed a good idea, the close was fun on the gbp chart, some crazy spike. will probably see some weird gap at the opening ? probably, but will see. There is a bullish engulfing on the m15 gbp/usd, that was my exits for all my gbp position, including the position on gbp/yen, engulfing was caused - my guess - by short term sellers taking profit.

And that's my gby/yen chart, the same posted couple of day ago, not so hard imagine where was the correct place to open a short, no ? No need to mark the chart, think is self-explanatory, don't you agree ?. Oh yes, is that easy. Still don't forget that easy doesen't mean simple,years of hard work and dedication are needed to master this kind of stuff live and do it in the long term. And that's why i am still a rookie, i still don't have that experience.

Now weekend, time to rest a bit, and then to open and update the weekley charts, is part of our weekley routine, and the next week could be a very interesting one.

busy days for me
gbp charts
I removed all unnecessary references and shenanigans, minus s/r, trades, etc etc, to focus only on the structure of price.
On the h4 charts only the most evident s/r - explained in the prevoius post - except that the last upper green dotted line, who acted as s/r "exchange" - where most money has changed hand, long to short etc etc - in the lower timeframe during this sort of range tarding we saw last days.
next chart,lower time frame, with the best - just my opinion of course - opportunity marked on the chart.
On the last chart you will read "price goes into an area with a nice history" in case you are thinking "feck off whiteout, we are all good when it comes to find this kind of area AFTER the action" well, maybe you should watch the post on the 4 jul, 3d chart...see the line "a beautifoul trade here too but that's another story", well draw a line in that area and, whoops, the magic is done. Don't have the energy to explain that one with a chart right now but if you are wonderind if it was just the lower time frame test of the breakout - see the high of the 19 jun - well, you are spot on zoom on the daily to have a better view.
overall, all stuff for scalpers and very talented intraday trader, there was/are better and clear opportunity out there, the puppet looks like is still ranging - - 2 hr to the close - no great follow trought after the bullish breakout. maybe a test of the lower areas will provide some light

Love your posts, whiteout. They remind of the good ol' Doctor. Great reading of price!

Look at this beautiful puppets, a perfect dancer, look how she respect the rhythm, a true beauty.
Of course, too early to say if she wonna dance even this year, we can only sit and wait.
Da da da daa, da da da daa

And seems she is definitly dancing as expected; but is very early, too early, how price will behave in the nexts hr/days - will respect support, demand, break resistance, old supply, etc - will add more clue if we are watching the start of a turn or long term sellers taking profit. some more clues can be collected by watching the others gbp and eur pairs. exp the gbp's pairs to see where money is going, if there is a flow of money leaving £.
maybe someone is already on the buy side, for the others, sitting and waiting for proper retest of old areas is the safest choice.

eurgbp: test of most obvious support around LO, found demand, nice reaction. Hopefully NOT a surprise for the few of you that are reading..

gbp pairs quite all bearish [short term charts] except GJ and few others [yen is even weaker than gbp], look where cable was where eg found support, just a coincidence
gbp now testing minus support<--big fat line on cable chart, will see what NY will bring.
remember guys, i am talking here about short term charts, intraday trading.

and...
is simple as it seems, difficoult part is do this live and acting properly...don't be fooled, simple don't means easy, need thousand of hr of screentime, years of pratice...
gbp now looks like is pointing to a decent support - watch charts in prev. post.

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i am - slowly- going trought all the pm. but please try to ask question involving trading here, better for everyone..

GU update, the bear "answer" was preety clear, and the outcome predictabile, we are now going to test a decent support area, if you are short maybe you should consider if is time to take profit; will be interesting to see what will happen there, long term investor will show themself ? new bulls will start to build position ? new sellers will add to their position ? taking profit ? will see, just play safe becouse "fakeout" and spikes around that area are fairly predictable.
Is interesting to note that everyone and their dogs now are shorting /talking about gbp and that despite the little gbp sell off gbp is now well bid against most pair, exp the commodity pair; that's becouse all the recent shakeout in the major are attributable to some decent dollar buying (uchf was my favourite puppet to play with today, some nice opp. there), this kind of stuff could make short term chart complicate to read for a while, just stay out if you don't have a clear picture of what's going on.

EG some nice buying opportunity during LO but only for scalper, so far nothing so exciting, i am holding some small longs but watch the daily, price isn't able atm to push/close above 0.7950; a retest of some lower support is possible to see if there are the will and the firepower to push this up.

Quick update on GU
chart with most obvious price action.
test, support/demand, breakout, test, resistance/supply. nothing else to add. sorry if i'll make so simple, but that's it, imho there is really nothing to add.
Price landed on another support area that i am scalping on the long side with very small position [isn't marked on the charts] and we are close to friday; it was logical to me to close all my short on gu, profits were overe 2k points, splitted in more intraday trades, no sense give them back;entrys were all around the logical and obvious area marked in the previous chart. Better enjoying the profits, there will be always time to find another entrys. Plus i have other position to manage.
hope you find my ramblings talking/charting helpfoul in some way.