Trading like a Pro

Looks like some jerking movement happened after all, we got stopped out on AUD, nevermind, we enter again because it will still go down...

Haha I just love how those returns fluctuate between 15% and 22%.So lets se what we got:

The AUD/NZD just went south, looks like indeed it starts today, but probably the big move will be Tuesday.

USD/JPY is in pause, probably waiting for a juice to break upwards.

AUD/USD finally went south after a whipsaw,where i unfortunately got stopped out, but now i recovered those losses with this one.

The EUR/USD is in silly shape, it got a little bit of strength, but just wait for the ECB comments, it will definitely drive it down with QE threats.

Besides the unemployment rate of today and some other factors could also drive down the EUR.

I also see that ForexFactory has a new layout, its looks nice , i like it

Quick scalp GBP/CAD, we exploit the GBP temporary weakness until the BOE becomes more hawkish.

Besides the CAD seems to be bullish, as the GDP report which will be released soon, has some good expectations, so yeah, a little scalp there until the upper 1.837.

I`m not sure if it will come down to 1.8300 so we will trail the stops agressively on this one.

I closed the EUR/USD positions, as the EUR unemployment was really good, so it will give an upkick to the EUR, and as seen on charts it seems like the price hit a bottom.I see no reason to expose ourselves to the whipsaw range market.The EUR unemployment for 1 thing, but of course since there is a deflation problem the ECB must do some QE soon, which might have bearish effects, but until then we dont trade it.

It all depends on today's and tomorrows US unemployment and employment news, if its very bullish for the USD, then the EUR/USD might go south a little bit more, if not then we wont trade this pair until the ECB gives more dovish tones, possibly a hint for QE in the EUZONE.

If the CAD GDP is bearish we go LONG on EUR/CAD

And we exit GBP/CAD short , if not then hold on that and probably double the position..

And its BULLISH for Canada, so forget about EUR/CAD

I doubled the GBP/CAD short instead.

Also the USD unemployment is neutral so everything else is ok, perhaps i see that now the AUD/USD is even weaker so i loosened the TP to book more $$$$$

A little bit of correction as i forget about the USDEmployment Cost Index q/q

Yea i see that its positive so it gives more bullish sign on the steamroller dollar, so USD/JPY goes up to the next resistance, while the AUD/USD drops down to the next support.

The news itself is not a big deal fundamentally speaking, but it surely gives a bullish sentiment, for the already strong USD that we have this week.

I wonder what Yellen will say about this at the next FOMC.

Ok lemme give you a few charts guys to make it more visual as my comments arent exactly visual or easy to visualize



This is my AUD/USD setup SL is already trailed, while my target is above the lower support @ 0.923



The USD/JPY i rebought after the strong USD began, i hold this position for days but now it will move as all signs are bullish on the USD, and bearish on JPY (especially production)

SL below spike, and TP @ the double 0 level of 103.8, a pretty easy trade i guess.

GBP/CAD dropping as predicted

I put the TP lower because i think the juice will be enough, as GBP was really neutral possibly slightly bearish as the today's news (GBPNationwide HPI m/m) were bearish.

So combined with newly GDP strength in the CAD, its a good choice to short.

Also, if we speak about GBP weakness, we also paired it with the juggernaut USD.

So 1 more trade GBP/USD short, as if the GBP goes down it goes down in both fronts vs CAD and USD.

So other good pip source from these

Ok there is a change of plan guys

USD Chicago PMI 52.6

This news was a pretty minor news, however because it was so worse than expected it caused a huge selloff in the USD.I was not in front of the PC so i just came back and see that our USD/JPY and so , positions profit almost got nullified, so i closed all those trades until i see how this works out.

While i`m still BULLISH on the USD, i just want to see how it works out, and i keep the GBP/USD open until it comes back to normal ,as the GBP is way weaker than the USD .

After the USD comes back to normal or atleast shows some strength in conjunction with the S&P 500, we resume buying USD/JPY.Until then i keep a tigh stoploss on GBP/USD short, and pray that it will go down becore SL gets hit.

Also the AUD/USD got a bad sign aswell.

So dont get me wrong the FUNDAMENTALS show a strong USD, but the sentiment got weaker, until the sentiment aligns back with the fundies, we stay away from USD.

3 new trades were put on, to keep the margin used effectively.

The 3 new trades are pretty much exploiting the GBP weakness.

The JPY and CHF currencies are risk aversion or safe haven currencies, if the USD drops, these 2 always strengthen as the traders want to keep their money in safety.

This is what happened so i combined the weak GBP with the newly strengthened JPY,CHF

Its all fundamentals guys

NZD/JPY trade closed, it was a little scalp, as i rethinked about it, instead i replaced it with USD/CAD because the CAD GDP was a better sentiment in my opinion than the NZD neutral week.

1. The S&P 500 is at all time highs, except todays close which was worse than its open -1.43%, which also reinforces this bearish sentiment on the USD.
2. The 10 yr T bond also shrunk -0.08%
3. Also the FED cut its monthly bond buying program to 25 billion $

Looks like a bearish sentiment is building up on the USD, however the fundamentals are still bullish.Investors probably wanna push down the USD a little bit to buy it back from a cheaper price.

I might go short on the USD for a scalp trade, but on the long term it will go up like a rocket, once the FED with become more hawkish...

Very well i closed losing trades, as i overestimated the USD weakness, when its actually very powerful today.

So we wont sell it instead we resume buying it, but the lesson is learned, i wont scalp again 1-2 hour positions, as the sentiment is very unpredictable.

Its better to stick with the fundamentals and endure a little DD, instead of scalping the sentiment.

Or atleast we can use limit or stop orders, to enter at a better price when the SENTIMENT is diverging from the FUNDAMENTALS.

But we will always go in the fundamental direction now

Finally the GBP/USD switched from DD to profit, i told you guys the USD is a juggernaut this week.

So does every currency weakened across the board to the mighty USD....

GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.4 57.2 57.5

Yup, the GBP is in really trouble...Time to make some pips, or recover those previous losses from yesterday's mistakes

 

1. Italian PMI & EU Manufacture negative, if the US unemployment comes out positive, we add EUR/USD sell to our list, because the EUR is really oversold so it need a bigger boost than just GBP weakness, to go lower, but i think it will go lower, the USD is just too strong

Well the USD Unemployment considerably fuck€d us in our big fat ass, i didnt expected it to have a so high impact,but we dont panic like newbies.Instead this will give us new opportunities, the long awaited NZD/USD bullish has just begun.

The USD got serious troubles, as for 1,5 weeks it was strong looks like today lost its strength...

We focus now on selling all USD pairs as this is not only a sentiment change, but also a fundamental change, so USD will weaken now.

2ND WEEK RESULTS:

1. +2% EQUITY GROWTH (6% BALANCE GROWTH)
2. 69% WINRATE (to balance)
3. -5.1% DRAWDOWN (to equity)
4. Net pips gained = 163 (to balance)

Pretty crappy as i say, because we had like 15% growth at a point but then a few crappy trades destroyed us, and that crappy dollar unemployment was so unexpected, i gotta be more careful with that next time.
We still had a growth but i would not call 2% a growth ,however i still outperformed my country's deposit rates, as my bank would give me 2.5% interest on a month deposit, meaning 0.625%/week with 0 risk, and so far with FX trading i made 2%, 3x more than my bank would give me, by only risking 5%, so i would call that a good one, if we consider the 70% winrate

While the S&P 500 had a -2.53% drop so we outperformed the S&P 500 index aswell

But i`m still angry at myself that i made so many mistakes, wheareas if i would not made them i would have had +10% return, next week i will be more cautious

New week, new opportunities.

This week i thought of a few reforms:

 

1. more discipline
2. i will stick to my rules more often than not (past week i kinda crossed a few, especially the max risk one, so i lost that much mostly because of it) , so magin level always > 200%, max risk <10%
3. more frequent trades, but smaller targets, looks like the market is more predictable in a 6-12 hour window than on longer or shorter inverval
4. max risk / trade will be always smaller or equal to 4%
5. more pips, and smaller DD
6. also i removed the low impact requirement to post, so if you have any questions about my methodology, just ask it

Lets see if i can live up to there promises.


===============================

I closed the crappy trades, so now only 5 trades are active, only the potential winners are now in, while i added the GBP/CHF, as a new one, exploiting the GBP weakness via the CHF risk aversion strength caused by the USD decline.

Added GBP/AUD a daytrade until the bottom support and 00 level of 1.786

While closed the USD/CHF ,mainly because swiss PMI became worse, which is not a big deal but may influence short term sentiment, and also because we strictly follow the margin level rule.We needed a free spot for it, so the GBP/AUD is a higher quality trade in my opinion.

GBP/AUD is not moving much despite the fact that the AUD retail sales was really good,i really expect bearish sentiment in this pair for the next couple of hours, or else i might close it.