Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,182
- Jul 30, 2014 6:08am Jul 30, 2014 6:08am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Did a pres78 special there taking half off and moving stop down a bit out of the way of a retest of my entry so a paper BE trade lets hope this goes this time with a bit of follow through.
After the retest will move stop to hard BE so locking in half a profit if it comes back again.
Hmmm not looking like its going to fly is it??
After the retest will move stop to hard BE so locking in half a profit if it comes back again.
Hmmm not looking like its going to fly is it??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,183
- Jul 30, 2014 6:18am Jul 30, 2014 6:18am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,184
- Jul 30, 2014 6:55am Jul 30, 2014 6:55am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,185
- Jul 30, 2014 7:49am Jul 30, 2014 7:49am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
That didn't quite work out the way I wanted it to got hit for 18 pips!!! Had my stop above last high for reversal but the news caused a little spike which took me out.. Didn't have a chance to move to BE either.
Well thats definitely me done for the day now , start again tomoz...
Well thats definitely me done for the day now , start again tomoz...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,186
- Jul 30, 2014 11:56am Jul 30, 2014 11:56am
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,425 Posts
That didn't quite work out the way I wanted it to got hit for 18 pips!!! Had my stop above last high for reversal but the news caused a little spike which took me out.. Didn't have a chance to move to BE either. {image} Well thats definitely me done for the day now , start again tomoz...
Clive, what was the reason for entering short ? Just curious
- #1,187
- Jul 30, 2014 3:04pm Jul 30, 2014 3:04pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Clive, what was the reason for entering short ? Just curious
Look at the chart below and I will explain, its not what they call a "system trade" but its what I like doing and has worked well in the past just not today unfortunately.
I like to trade in the direction of the 15 min momentum thats for sure, But my definition of the 15 min momentum differs from some of the other guys on here, I consider the momentum down once the 15min CCI has peaked like this one at +200 then starts to slope down. I then like to enter on the 1 min CCI pullbacks. Basically buying the dips in an uptrend and selling the peaks in a downtrend, the dips and peaks to me are represented by the 1 min CCI going over the +100 level for a peak or below the -100 for a dip.
I also pay particular attention to market structure to ensure I only sell LH's and buy HL's, if I can I like to buy the first HL or sell the first LH. I also pay particular attention to the 15 min CCI and treat it exactly the same as I would if I was trading the 15 min chart 14 CCI, that is I'm looking for sells when the 15 min CCI crosses down from above the +100 level and looking for buys when it crosses up from below the -100 level. Just like we do on the 1 min CCI.
Now I've said all that let me explain what I was thinking today when I sold GBPNZD hopefully it will make sense, if not please ask for clarification. Firstly remember I can't see to the right of price when I took this trade, sure its easy to see now why I shouldn't of but thats the power of hindsight at work and until my friend Ted finishes work on his "hindsight Indicator" we're just have to do as best as we can without.
I will describe my thoughts as I go with the arrows numbered from left to right.
- First sign that a possible reversal is on the cards with a failed drive up not passing the last HH.
- Nice strong drive down taking out the last HL, nice and smooth and crossing the 100LWMA giving us our first LL of the new downtrend.
- The 15 min CCI falls below the +100 level after being oversold over +200 level. This to me is a sell signal on a 15 min chart so we should start looking for the next 1 min sell signal as long as its a LH or DT at worst.
- 1 min sell signal on CCI crossing below +100 level and confirmed as its our first LH, I mean first LH after a our first LL of the new downtrend. Its important to get this sequence right I don't just sell LH's I want to see a LL first followed by a LH. (The reverse is true for upward reversals, always look for the last LH to be taken out followed by a HL for entry.)
- Placed pending order 2 pips below first red HA candle.
- I normally use 10 pips for my stop but in this case I wanted it to breathe a bit as they don't always go straight down so placed my stop above the last HH, should really adjust my normal risk of 10% across the stop eg 20 pips. But I didn't that was a mistake.
If you look at the push down and pullback as I saw them in real time you can see a very clear AB push down followed by a very smooth BC leg pullback. Think it might of held but for some news release.
The rest is history price didn't even go down 3 pips to get me to BE so suffered a massive loss of 19 pips due to my large stop. Should of really reduced my risk accordingly risking my usual 10% across 20 pips , but I didn't.
Hope that helps, not my best trade but I'm quite happy with the theory behind it apart from the large stop which I should of reduced other than that quite happy as these setups when they work out can give me a large RR return. Just didn't work out this time.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,188
- Jul 30, 2014 4:05pm Jul 30, 2014 4:05pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
{quote} Great question Huskyboy
Do you not consider the HA moving average that never turned red?
All sounds too much like trying to predict turns for me. I hope it starts working again for you soon.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #1,189
- Jul 30, 2014 11:39pm Jul 30, 2014 11:39pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Clive, Do you not consider the HA moving average that never turned red? All sounds too much like trying to predict turns for me. I hope it starts working again for you soon.
Thanks pres78, good point about the 100LWMA but of course if my entry had of worked it would of turned red shortly after.
Thanks for your concerns, but don't worry I will be fine. All I'm doing is believing that all moves must start on the 1 min and I am working on the belief that the 1 minute leads all the other timeframes. Its the leader not the follower so if I can see the reversals soon as they occur on the 1 min then I will be in the move right from the start and therefore will get bigger RR's, which is my goal. I believe the key to successful trading is bigger winners than your losers and thats my goal.
Everything I do is aimed at that one goal. Last week I achieved it , this week its been a struggle but learning all the time. Got myself into a little grief yesterday believing I knew the best direction for EUR pairs was down but yet again the market had different ideas and if I had stuck to just trading the 1 mins actual direction then I would have been fine. So I agree with you 100% we don't predict here we just follow the 1 min whichever direction it takes us.
Thats the key for me "Don't predict just follow" . Apparently 95% of traders lose at trading and I think one of the contributing factors is that they believe they can predict a totally random market, thats where the problems start for me, we can't predict we can only follow so if I'm going to be following then I want to be following the leader not another follower(higher timeframes). If I had my way I would trade the tick chart but spread etc would kill that idea dead. The nearest I can get is the 1 minute.
Anyway I'm rambling again, thanks for your well wishes I'm convinced I'm on the right track here just need to develop a touch more discipline to follow my plan tighter and I will be fine.
Nice to see you here again and please hang around and keep posting its nice to hear your thoughts and share your company. Trading can be a lonely game sometimes can't it????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,190
- Jul 30, 2014 11:51pm Jul 30, 2014 11:51pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Morning analysis.
News today to tip toe around main red news at 10.00hrs EUR CPI estimates and NYO 13,30hrs CAD/USD other than that not too much but hopefully enough to move the markets today.
Overnight NZD strength so will keep an eye on NZD pairs for LO reversals.
As for right now the 1 min TT's I like the gbp pairs down but not so keen on the NZD pairs down as so oversold on 15 min CCI.
Thats it lets see what happens next.........
News today to tip toe around main red news at 10.00hrs EUR CPI estimates and NYO 13,30hrs CAD/USD other than that not too much but hopefully enough to move the markets today.
Overnight NZD strength so will keep an eye on NZD pairs for LO reversals.
As for right now the 1 min TT's I like the gbp pairs down but not so keen on the NZD pairs down as so oversold on 15 min CCI.
Thats it lets see what happens next.........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,191
- Jul 30, 2014 11:54pm Jul 30, 2014 11:54pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 7,195 Posts
Hi Clive
If you want to go for those trades fine no problem you seem to have a system i.e. must have made in this sell example a LL, LH etc. What I would suggest is that on these types of trades you keep very clear trade stats (where exactly was cc1 210, time of day, how did ma look etc etc) on both winners and losers to make sure that they are indeed worth taking, then of course you need to be aware on the winners how much earlier you would have gotten in before a system trade.
For example if you get a 50% win rate on these specific trades with a 10 pip stop and you're getting in on average say 7 pips earlier it would make the whole exercise redundant. Know your business.
If you want to go for those trades fine no problem you seem to have a system i.e. must have made in this sell example a LL, LH etc. What I would suggest is that on these types of trades you keep very clear trade stats (where exactly was cc1 210, time of day, how did ma look etc etc) on both winners and losers to make sure that they are indeed worth taking, then of course you need to be aware on the winners how much earlier you would have gotten in before a system trade.
For example if you get a 50% win rate on these specific trades with a 10 pip stop and you're getting in on average say 7 pips earlier it would make the whole exercise redundant. Know your business.
- #1,192
- Jul 30, 2014 11:54pm Jul 30, 2014 11:54pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,193
- Jul 31, 2014 12:02am Jul 31, 2014 12:02am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,194
- Jul 31, 2014 12:12am Jul 31, 2014 12:12am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,195
- Jul 31, 2014 12:21am Jul 31, 2014 12:21am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Hi Clive If you want to go for those trades fine no problem you seem to have a system i.e. must have made in this sell example a LL, LH etc. What I would suggest is that on these types of trades you keep very clear trade stats (where exactly was cc1 210, time of day, how did ma look etc etc) on both winners and losers to make sure that they are indeed worth taking, then of course you need to be aware on the winners how much earlier you would have gotten in before a system trade. For example if you get a 50% win rate on these specific trades with...
Good morning Mr V
Yep I agree as always wise words Mr V and I'm getting to know my business but not quite there yet but getting closer every day....
Everyday bit by bit by bit........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,196
- Jul 31, 2014 12:26am Jul 31, 2014 12:26am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
This is what I like EURNZD and GBPNZD both in top 4 TT's but red in 5 min and green oin 1 min a sure fire reversal setupp just gotta wait for a nice pullback entry looks like the 15 min cci will go over +100 too so a "system trade" too!!!
Just got to wait for a nice pullback.......
Just got to wait for a nice pullback.......
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,197
- Jul 31, 2014 1:00am Jul 31, 2014 1:00am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,198
- Jul 31, 2014 1:03am Jul 31, 2014 1:03am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Ha Ha amazing it held
By a natts whisker I might add but now its looking very promising...
By a natts whisker I might add but now its looking very promising...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #1,199
- Jul 31, 2014 1:19am Jul 31, 2014 1:19am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Great hopes make great men | 2,042 Posts
Ha Ha amazing it held
My style is different but pulling my weight and I'm off to snooze - low risk, low stress
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
- #1,200
- Jul 31, 2014 1:25am Jul 31, 2014 1:25am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Good job man
Thanks George I like your system I've seen you on many of the threads I've followed. I like how you use the relative strength in your trading. We must have a chat sometime if you've got a spare minute??
Keep dropping in nice to see you here...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!