EURUSD:
SOLD on a pull back to the 21ema(in blue)
SOLD on a pull back to the 21ema(in blue)
Yvon
4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
- #27,983
- Jul 29, 2014 10:24am Jul 29, 2014 10:24am
Hi Yvon, as i wrote before i sold it on pull back to 21 ema! I would like to ask you where your take profit is? I put three take profit, two of them already took. They were at 1.34213 and 1.34113. The next (last) one is at 1.33972. What do you think about?? Thanks you, Mirko
You have conservatives targets, which is wise!
Targets differs from one to another. I usually have the bad habit to put a SL too close to action. It is amazing that someone is asking me where my profit taking is.
This time I just want to let it run! I don’t do that usually. You are just catching me doing this! Since it is a weakness (the SL too close), I just want to experiment by just let it run and see! My first decent target is around 1.3315, balance is about 1.3175… but I suggest here that’s risky trades! I am expecting a barrier at 1.3365 or so. So maybe this attempt will be short lived. But will see!- I ‘ll be managing the SL away from the action, somewhere above the 21ema.
Yvon
- #27,985
- Edited 4:09pm Jul 29, 2014 3:47pm | Edited 4:09pm
Hi Yvon, thank you for the answer. Ok, let check how deep it will go! I have choosed 1.33972 as my last target profit because i have seen that one resistance is somewhere there, but maybe is a resistance that is not working anymore because is starting since 7 april! Also if you watch the weekly chart, there is the 89 ema that is just around there... What you think about this MA? Do you consider it as a probabily bounce? Thank you! Mirko
for sure it could give a barrier there, but looking at longer term there is still a divergence from the macd and the targets are reachable, my guess. If the dollar index still pointing up, because it seems that it has made a bottom, or try very very hard on it. if it is the case , it will be true to sell the EURUSD and keep it that way for quite some time . Again, it is just a guess, and market does what it wants!
but the 89sma has something that markets respect, and a bounce wouln't be a surprise.
This is the weekly chart: the first target ( first circle) is reached. look at the divergence and the last RT, on the chart is below the zero line in the macd,(making the TC there. It is weak.
next is the 365: 1.3340 or so... 
Yvon
- #27,986
- Jul 29, 2014 4:15pm Jul 29, 2014 4:15pm
Hello everyone, This morning i check GBPUSD and EURUSD, and they were in the similar situation. Just they touched the 21 ema, bouncing there, and by the rule (I guess!) i sold both... i sold this morning 8.00 GMT +2 both GBP/USD EUR/USD, i thought was a good time, and since now i am +37 pip in GBP/USD with one take profit at 1.69369 (now the price si 1.69398) and another take profit at 1.69210. Where is your take profit? Do you think it would go more down? About EUR/USD i am +16 pip now, i have two take profit, one at 1,34113 and the other at 1.33972....
The last few posts discuss the ability to anticipate what MIGHT happen when rythym is in play. You too (like Yvon) have made a decision to enter based on what you are seeing at the 21ma. Good on you for grasping the concept. Of course the odds of success are more probable when there is an obvious trend flowing. Taking a bounce of the 8 or 21 in a flat market is similar to a 50/50 coin toss so that is something to be wary of . The original plans from Phillip were for us to learn how to read the market motion based on his rythym rules and then once a set up completed , we could then use the Macd to confirm that signal and thus give us added confidence about the EDGE being in our favour. Now we are progressing further as Yvon is showing us. IMHO , this is a good reason to concentrate fully on 1 -2 pairs. It gives us a chance to really get to understand the characteristics of our chosen currency. We can back-test how price has reacted to the 21 way back in history. You can become part of the currency. After playing trades on any & all markets I was getting lost. It was taking many hours of screen time and was becoming " A JOB " ( unpaid of course
). Now I am playing Kiwi /Aussie/Pound/Euro. My rules state that I can only ever have 1 trade open at a time and I will only play 1 of the related currencies at any 1 time. EG - the Aussie & Kiwi have similar movements as does the Pound & Euro.Your question of profit targets is a good one & it is worth covering again. Phillips lessons tell us that the 200 & 365 ma's are basically there to be used as targets. So there is one level for you to look at. The others can be based on Higher Timeframe levels just like we have used in these current trades we are in. My Targets for the pound trade were the H4 365 ma which hit to the pip and my long term target is now the Daily 89ma which is a confluence level with a trendline support and also a Fib Level . Yvon's using the Weekly 89 ma for his Kiwi trade.
Hope this helps you with some ideas.
BTW - can you perhaps post some of your charts as this would interest me greatly. I always enjoy seeing other guys' ideas in motion
- #27,987
- Jul 29, 2014 4:33pm Jul 29, 2014 4:33pm
{quote} hi Mirka, for sure it could give a barrier there, but looking at longer term there is still a divergence from the macd and the targets are reachable, my guess. If the dollar index still pointing up, because it seems that it has made a bottom, or try very very hard on it. if it is the case , it will be true to sell the EURUSD and keep it that way for quite some time . Again, it is just a guess, and market does what it wants!
Good Morning Yvon - how's the Kiwi going. You still there??
About the Euro - are you planning to use that bottom T/L support for a target.
We are seeing divergence for sure here ( I am calling it the 4 sisters
). The big boys will let us know soon enough I guess.
I am still in the Pound & the 365 is holding as Resistance while trading comes to an end for the day.
- #27,988
- Jul 29, 2014 4:50pm Jul 29, 2014 4:50pm
AUSSIE H & S SETTING UP:
Have got my breakout and waiting to see if the pattern will complete for me. A bullish move back towards the neckline break followed by a bearish move away. Classic BPM . Go Baby!!!!
Have got my breakout and waiting to see if the pattern will complete for me. A bullish move back towards the neckline break followed by a bearish move away. Classic BPM . Go Baby!!!!
- #27,989
- Jul 29, 2014 5:05pm Jul 29, 2014 5:05pm
{quote} Good Morning Yvon - how's the Kiwi going. You still there?? About the Euro - are you planning to use that bottom T/L support for a target. We are seeing divergence for sure here ( I am calling it the 4 sisters
about the EURUSD: as I mentionned earlier, I am doing something different this time . I just let it run down, having SL just a bit over the 21ema! Sure that if there is a very nice big red apple available that I wouldn't take a bite ( bottom T/L), but mainly I want to stay focus on keeping that beast going down.
the GBPUSD, finally it seems that strength is weakening, I want to keep that one short for a bit longer than just a while!
the NZDUSD: Divergence starting from the monthly. the thing just flows just like the little river at my father's place, when I was young, trying to catch fishes bare hands, with my friend...bare foot in the river! so I keep the NZDUSD, flowing down!
but again...will see!
Yvon
- #27,990
- Jul 29, 2014 7:38pm Jul 29, 2014 7:38pm
SOLD after the pull back to the bunch of moving averages above. but still not quite sure of a move down to the 365 acting as the speed of the market. So ,in a sense, the pair has slowed down, the real move would be below the 365, which would be very interesting. Very short SL on this trade.
binnie, you fizzled my curiosity on that pair!
binnie, you fizzled my curiosity on that pair!
Yvon
- #27,992
- Jul 30, 2014 1:09am Jul 30, 2014 1:09am
Did 2 trades on EURUSD on 28th and 29th July.
Posted on 28th on the sell trade relating to 3 little sisters. But no one responded and I did the trade anyway and made a 9 pips gain before deciding to sell it off. Analysis:
Counter trend trade
TP= 21ema
3rd RB forming, possibility that price was pulling back to 21ema
MACD divergence
Short term trade so was watching it closely.
29th July
No MACD indication. Decision based on candle spike and fact that it was moving away from 21ema
Open for comment. Yvon, did you enter the trade at the close of the candle with the spike? Or did you wait for the next candle to close? Please comment if my analysis was ok. Thanking all for your great support.
Posted on 28th on the sell trade relating to 3 little sisters. But no one responded and I did the trade anyway and made a 9 pips gain before deciding to sell it off. Analysis:
Counter trend trade
TP= 21ema
3rd RB forming, possibility that price was pulling back to 21ema
MACD divergence
Short term trade so was watching it closely.
29th July
No MACD indication. Decision based on candle spike and fact that it was moving away from 21ema
Open for comment. Yvon, did you enter the trade at the close of the candle with the spike? Or did you wait for the next candle to close? Please comment if my analysis was ok. Thanking all for your great support.
- #27,995
- Jul 30, 2014 4:01am Jul 30, 2014 4:01am
Binnie and Yvon, Saw your posts. About NZDUSD, re-reading the posts again and I think they are beginning to make sense. Yvon, thanks for not giving up on me, you are still pressing on trying to help me understand. Thanks. I think I will leave this aside for now, not that I am giving up but will learn to be more alert and read the charts like Yvon is doing. Perhaps, when opportunity comes, I will post charts and leave it for you guys to comment if I have got the idea. After all, practice makes perfect. But at the mean time, please continue to post...
Your use of the bigger picture to determine possible targets is pretty good. You have labelled the Weekly 89ma correctly as 1st target but I am not sure how you have included the weekly 365 in proceedings here. Have another look at the weekly and what do you see?? Once price has cleared out from this 89 it is sitting at - where is the next area where turbulence can hit the run down.??
Draw a trendline across those recent highs & lows about the 1.3350 level. This is previous resistance now turned support. IMHO, this is the next likely area to take some more off the table . Now go back to the Daily chart & draw a trendline diagonally along the lows . Where does this line intersect ? Is it the same 1.3350 level you have just drawn across the weekly chart. So here is now 2 reasons to anticipate price finding its way to this support region. Now
to complete this wee picture you are creating, how about running a fib extension across the last major High to the last recent low - ( doesn't matter if its on the weekly or daily as same result ) - where does the 161.8 extension sit ? If you are seeing 1.3200 level then we are on the same page. IMHO that is where this could run to. Other guys may see differently - they will no doubt speak up hopefully. But as we all know too well, we are anticipating a move and unfortunately the market makes its own rules in the end. My 2 cents buddy.
The great thing about this one is that it is a free ride - well done.
- #27,996
- Jul 30, 2014 4:03am Jul 30, 2014 4:03am
{quote} Nice find.... Its funny how you could just have 2 user names throughout the whole thread. With the rhythm (gurus) (dances like Michael Jackson) Out of rhythm (newbies and me) (dances like me dad) The thread is great I'm reading and learning all the time from it... keep up the good work...
. What about you guys?Hows the trading going buddy?
- #27,997
- Edited 5:29am Jul 30, 2014 4:16am | Edited 5:29am
GU UPDATE
This is what I am seeing right now on my trade.
I will give it another hour while I watch a movie ( Red2) and see if the run down towards my target will continue. Otherwise I will have to close out before bed so the Red News from USA don't steal any from me.
Bedtime now - closed trade for 35pips on the 2nd half .
Good result. Will sleep well.
This is what I am seeing right now on my trade.
I will give it another hour while I watch a movie ( Red2) and see if the run down towards my target will continue. Otherwise I will have to close out before bed so the Red News from USA don't steal any from me
. Bedtime now - closed trade for 35pips on the 2nd half .
Good result. Will sleep well.
- #27,999
- Jul 30, 2014 7:00am Jul 30, 2014 7:00am
Did 2 trades on EURUSD on 28th and 29th July. Posted on 28th on the sell trade relating to 3 little sisters. But no one responded and I did the trade anyway and made a 9 pips gain before deciding to sell it off. Analysis: Counter trend trade TP= 21ema 3rd RB forming, possibility that price was pulling back to 21ema MACD divergence Short term trade so was watching it closely. 29th July No MACD indication. Decision based on candle spike and fact that it was moving away from 21ema Open for comment. Yvon, did you enter the trade at the close of the...
On the 28, sorry I missed that one!
But You have done It ok. A counter trade is usually short live and you acted accordingly. That’s nice! If you are “new” to this it would be better as a suggestion to go with the trend, taking a TC it would be less risky. I do counter trend only when there is a brass band, a piano, 4 violins and at least 1 guy that keep the rhythm with his left foot! But the three sisters were ok.
The second trade is more with my way of doing it, I feel more comfortable to comment.
You are saying that there was no indication on the macd, but what is coming to my mind is this as indication: the anticipation of the macd could have been going back to the zero line and a possibility of making a TC was in the card, so an anticipation of a trade was in the card and already knowing that a possible SL could be small there, reducing the risk in case the pair would have moved over the zero line and not making a TC, well , I surely would have thought that. But you are doing ok, it is just an add up I would have consider there. I like those TC, they are ok! You are doing fast on changing your mind about a trade: from bullish to bearish in no time!In a sense, you are helping me getting faster(mind), putting emotion aside, trading what is just there. You are doing fine, keep the good work!
Yvon
- #28,000
- Jul 30, 2014 7:43am Jul 30, 2014 7:43am
Binnie and Yvon, Saw your posts. About NZDUSD, re-reading the posts again and I think they are beginning to make sense. Yvon, thanks for not giving up on me, you are still pressing on trying to help me understand. Thanks. I think I will leave this aside for now, not that I am giving up but will learn to be more alert and read the charts like Yvon is doing. Perhaps, when opportunity comes, I will post charts and leave it for you guys to comment if I have got the idea. After all, practice makes perfect. But at the mean time, please continue to post...
there are so many question in there! ouff!- i'll do my best here!
As I write this the 1.3400 has been reached already: congrat!
And that level was the last low on the left, which is by the rules. So you are doing well. But can be seen also on the weekly chart. What about 1.3300? It is only a guess here but it could be reachable. The first reason coming to my mind is: is there a pressure for quite some time that would support a move lower? Is there a long divergence there? And the answer is yes! So I am incline to think that the bearish mood is in there to possibly continues in a down move. And there is another low on the left, on the weekly chart (yellow circle)corresponding to 1.3300 level. But again the market does anything it wants! suggestion here: look at ATR set to 1 to see the possible range so you would have an idea of the range that could be possibly cover in a particular time frame.
Yvon