priceaction1 journal

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will add during week end weekly view about next week trade.

there are many ways to reduce your cost of doing trading my euro.usd spread is fxed 1.1. with high leverage. can't write any more. if need more info mail me.

and yes some "N" factor which effect the trading.

usd/cda IF set up, more likely it goes to stage 3. but we never know what she do next step. so we have if set up i.e if she goes at x point I will do y action.

euro view down side 1.3426-1.338** area. upside 1.3483 if cross than 1.3540-70 area, short at 1.3550-70 with 10-15 pips i.e 1.3580-95 protection.
try long from 1.3420-1.3380 protection bellow 1.3370 area. .

euro monthly

thanks to Ashraflodhi

Big USD Week, EUR Net Shorts Soar

The US dollar is poised for liftoff but it needs something, anything, from the Fed to light the ignition in the week ahead. Last week sported the unusual pattern of the Australian dollar as the top performer with the kiwi lagging – boosting one of our Premium trades. The latest CFTC data showed a surge in euro shorts.
Last week ended with a durable goods orders report that was much weaker than the 0.7% headline suggested. Excluding defense and aircraft, both orders and shipments were weak due to sharp downward revisions. That led to some re-issued Q2 GDP forecasts and added downside risks to the 3.0% consensus in the first look at Q2 on Wednesday.
The main events in the week ahead are the FOMC decision and Friday's jobs report. The market has been burned a multitude of times for betting on a slight hawkish shift from Yellen that never seems to come. With the employment market continuing to improve it's growing difficult to justify rates so low.
Commitments of Traders
Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +. EUR -89K vs -63K prior JPY -54K vs -63K prior GBP +27K vs +39K prior AUD +39K vs +40K prior CAD +21K vs +16K prior CHF -7K vs -6K prior NZD +15K vs +15K prior
It doesn't take much to get the euro bears excited. They piled into shorts after the break of 1.3500, driving the euro net short to the most extreme since Nov 2012. The other notable move was the quick shift out of the pound. Traders were slow to warm up and now appear quick to exit with Carney sending mixed signals.
On Thursday, we issued new trades in EURUSD and GBPUSD with four new charts, while sticking with our EURJPY and EURAUD shorts, especially as the latter entered at 1.46200, targeting 1.4200 missed its final target by 12 pips. We also await the final 1.1020 target in AUDNZD after the 1.0830 entry on Tuesday produced 1.1016 on Thursday, instead of the final 1.1020.

thanks to Pax forex.

Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the 1.3410 to 1.3450 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

1. Timeframe: D1
2. Recommendation: Long Position
3. Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3430
4. Take Profit Zone: 1.3910 – 1.3950
5. Stop Loss Level: 1.3280

Should price action for the EURUSD breakout above 1.3450 the following trade set-up is recommended:

1. Timeframe: D1
2. Recommendation: Long Position
3. Entry Level: Long Position @ Retracements in the trend; buy orders during dips
4. Take Profit Zone: 1.3910 – 1.3950
5. Stop Loss Level: 1.3280

Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.3410 the following trade set-up is recommended:

1. Timeframe: D1
2. Recommendation: Short Position
3. Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3400
4. Take Profit Zone: 1.3210 – 1.3240
5. Stop Loss Level: 1.3480

thanks to sive morten.


Thus, "The euro's fate will all be about the FOMC and then the nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. I'm looking for a $1.3400 to $1.3470 range until then," said Jeffrey Halley, FX trader for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, referring to the Fed's two-day policy meeting that starts on Tuesday.

In a sign of the increasingly bearishpositioning against the single currency since late November 2012.

The U.S. economy needs to do well in order for such euro-selling sentiment to persist, said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist for Mizuho Bank in Tokyo. "If bets accumulate too much in that direction though, you do have to be wary about the possibility of a sudden reversal," Karakama said. While the latest data on currency speculators' positioning shows that euro-selling momentum has increased, it can also be seen as a sign that there is now more fuel for a short-covering bounce in the euro, Karakama added.

CFTC Data
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
Long 58,142 59,506
Short 146,965 122,352
Net -88,823 -62,846

So, we have: 146965/(146965+58142) = 71.65% of Shorts. Extreme points before reversal usually stands around 80%, but 20K increasing just for 1 week could be significant. Besides, we will get another CFTC report before FOMC meeting and we need to take a look at numbers.

Besides the Fed policy meeting and U.S. jobs data, euro zone inflation and PMI surveys for China and the euro zone later this week are also on investors' radar.

Speaking about technical moments - it is better to focus on some tactical trades that probably will be completed till Fed. For example, GBP. On daily chart we see bounce down from long-term candles for DiNapoli pattern - either DRPO or B&B.

cable long@ 1.6955 1/10 position low leverage with protection of 1.6940 area.

cable if set up.
I don't know where price goes but I did know if price goes bellow 1.6948 area I will be out before 1.3639. and if price goes above 1.6965 my stop loss will be at BE. calculated low risk low leverage trade.

stop now 1.69547

out at 1.69547. try miss it's ok.

ok let her play I am there baby if you want short I do if you want long I do but at my own term and condition

so she think 1.6897 area plz don't read this as a entry point. I will post live when I enter or any pending order. flow is still down side.

What does "1/10 position" mean? Is it related to risk/reward ratio or position size?

I will not play with bull neither bear at this time I join wining party.

To flow..' Some obstacles cannot be overcome,, so have to go around them',.

If I have 1000$ account I risk 1$ per pipe. so it is 0.1 lot against 1000$. some time when in flow I increase it a lot. but when risk is high I go with cation. and at flow I am unable to post bcz every second position is changed and in/out very quickly.

CABLE inter bank tic chart.