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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,961
  • Jul 28, 2014 8:12am Jul 28, 2014 8:12am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Brilliant, awesome, standing ovation required. 1:Is this an example of what you are trying to teach us? 2:The weekly, could be some bounce off the 89/200 before continuing down. 3: H4, showing us a bearish head and shoulder 4:a RB and a possible return to the 21 and then the 89. Little brother following big brother.... {image} {image}
Hi Yaakruay’, thank for the nice words,

NZDUSD:
1:This is an example of what I understand from the strategy, a view from another point of observation. Another way of saying the same thing (or I try to!)- Just putting imaginary in there!

2: the weekly is far away from the 89 now, some 220 pips, unless you are talking of some other pair. But for the NZDUSD weekly is on the process of making the pull back to the 21ema before going away down, if the pair chose that path.- nothing to worry about.

But you should already see and feel the weight from the weekly chart applied to the 4hrs chart. If that pair, on the weekly, makes a move up or so without closing above the 21 ema, then the next step to watch is the “move away” down. But again, just see, by the rules, the ending. It would probably reached the targets points established by the strategy.

3: you are probably talking about .8836 being the Head.
4: a RB… yes, but don’t expect a big return, the pair, on the 4hrs chart just respecting the rules by wanting to get back to the 21ema from below then the move away down should be next…still if the pair want to go that way. Don’t forget that the pair goes where it wants to go. We, traders, need to find a way to “anticipate” what should be coming: thanks to Phillip Nel for his strategy.

I just saw your chart: you are talking about the EURUSD: sorry about that!

My view is that the target has been reached, or very close to it. We could see a pull back, as you mentioned to the 21ema, and then maybe later reaching 1.2400! Yes! This is far away from now, but could get there!
The idea behind seeing the history is to get a perspective of what should happen in the future, just that! So, when I see a RT, well I know it could reach back the 21ema. But knowing the possible anticipation, I am more confident while applying the rules and pull the trigger. Just that!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD140723 weekly.png Size: 120 KB
Yvon
  • #27,962
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:26am Jul 28, 2014 10:26am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Brilliant, awesome, standing ovation required. Is this an example of what you are trying to teach us? The weekly, could be some bounce off the 89/200 before continuing down. H4, showing us a bearish head and shoulder a RB and a possible return to the 21 and then the 89. Little brother following big brother.... {image} {image}
ok, I just took your chart and just added my toughts on it


the HS makes the history in this case,( it could be a RT or else) or if you prefer your 1000 feet diver., the divergence on the macd. so when you get back to the 4hrs chart, keep that info on the back burner technically.but don't forget that the pair can go anywhere it wants! the strategy is there to structure the pair, so you can see better using the rules.

as you can see, that beast has been lurking to go lower for quite some time!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1000feet diver.png Size: 384 KB
Yvon
  • #27,963
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:27pm Jul 28, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Richard, I took a CT trade on this pair (on demo account). The 3 RB there which are the 3 little sisters (that's Nel's term). But my anticipation is that price will pull back to 21ema on H4 TF. But you say to weekly, which I don't quite understand why? Thanks for posting. Nicholas

My error, i meant to say on the weekly return to the 8ma or previous resistance.
  • #27,964
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:39pm Jul 28, 2014 3:39pm
Hi Guys

Charts starting to show some possible action

I am keen on this Pound setting up. The Daily Rythym indicates a further move down to its 89ma. The H4 Rythym confirms also a move down. Bear in mind that this current run south on the H4 COULD just be a pullback on the Daily. Even so, I see a further 90 pips available to the confluence level so will play if Macd tells me to go with a nice TC on the H4. The H4 365ma could cause a minor hiccup but hopefully the Daily 89 is the stronger magnet here.
If there is a strong reaction at the target level, is there a chance for a turn around & resumption of the Daily & Weekly Bullish trend. ??? Lets see what happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_Daily_View_29Jul.png Size: 59 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_H4_29_jul.png Size: 51 KB
  • #27,965
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:24pm Jul 28, 2014 4:24pm
Aussie Watch ( sounds like TV programme - Baywatch)

Daily & Weekly in Consolidation mood. Needing a nice push down to start this possible H & S Breakout on my H4 chart. Almost 100 pips available from the neckline if this happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_H4_29_Jul.png Size: 49 KB
  • #27,966
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:30pm Jul 28, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting binnie
Hi Guys Charts starting to show some possible action I am keen on this Pound setting up. The Daily Rythym indicates a further move down to its 89ma. The H4 Rythym confirms also a move down. Bear in mind that this current run south on the H4 COULD just be a pullback on the Daily. Even so, I see a further 90 pips available to the confluence level so will play if Macd tells me to go with a nice TC on the H4. The H4 365ma could cause a minor hiccup but hopefully the Daily 89 is the stronger magnet here. If there is a strong reaction...
Hi Binnie / Yvon,
How do you apply market analysis with all 3 TF - H4, daily and weekly. I just don't get the picture. In GU you mentioned for example, on the H4 TF, 89sma is above the market and on daily and weekly 89sma is below. One TF say market has potential to move south the other 2 TF says otherwise. What excatly do we look for we look for in this 3 TF and make sense of it in trading?
  • #27,967
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:43pm Jul 28, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} hi Nic, maybe by adding some more explanations: all I took was on the 4hrs chart. there it is: Ok, let’s take the 62 pips case: … Now, there is a big crowd , the diver is almost touching the water, he is at about 3 feet from getting wet. He is coming fast, his weight is more than triple, and yes I feel the weight accumulated from the daily, weekly chart, since he is coming down from 1000feet. The form of his body looks totally normal, but don’t stand below him,( or counter trend!) it could be fatal! Right there he is three...
Hi Yvon,

I am very grateful for you great great patience. You never give up (on me) and keep trying to explain. Seriously, I am very thankful for you kindness. My stubborn brains would not understand that trade you took and tried to explain to me how you did it.

I have been thinking and re-reading you replies many many times since Friday to try and make sense of them but my stubborn brain just won't understand. I even think about them in my sleep but still they won't make sense.

But I have this to ask:
1. It looks to me on the candles, before the huge long red candle bar move, that it was going flat. I don't see it coming at all for the candle bars before the huge ones move very little and it almost like not moving. It looks like market to going to remain flat and then that sudden plunge! There is no candle pattern to indicate that price was going to move, they flat.

2. You took the trade without the MACD signal? MACD does not say about entry. On the contrary, it looked like it was going to go up.

Sorry, to keep asking you the same question, I feel bad. The diving method you used, help very little as I cannot see that the candles pattern is allowing any entry, neither the MACD. But yes, I understand about the RT / SHS you use. But by just using SHS / RT is not sufficient to indicate one can go ahead and pull the trigger. Right?

Please understand that it is not you fault that I cannot understand, it is my problem. Ok. Thanks
Nicholas.
  • #27,968
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:00pm Jul 28, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Binnie / Yvon, How do you apply market analysis with all 3 TF - H4, daily and weekly. I just don't get the picture. In GU you mentioned for example, on the H4 TF, 89sma is above the market and on daily and weekly 89sma is below. One TF say market has potential to move south the other 2 TF says otherwise. What excatly do we look for we look for in this 3 TF and make sense of it in trading?
Hi Nic,
The ma's play the same roles in each timeframe - they are simply a measure of the average of x number of candles or bars. This I think you already know. What we have to follow with Phillip's rules, is that it makes no difference what Timeframe we are on , price will react the same to each of these ma's.
For instance , if price is above the 89 on any chart - the MOOD is generally considered BULLISH. If price breaks through the 21ma from either direction - it tends to pull back to it before moving on to the 89. If price arrives at the 89 - it can either charge on thru it to the 200 or can just hover around it ( catch its breath ).. and so on etc etc. Each of these rules are explained throughout the thread and what we have to learn from the Higher T/Frames ( daily /Weekly ) is where price is at right at this moment when we are looking at our H4 charts for anticipated direction.
I know its confusing buddy and I am reading it all again & again until I get it.
I hope the attached helps you with this. Enjoy
Breaking down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour for the GbpUsd
Attached Files
http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/attach/pdf.gif Breaking down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour GbpUsd.pdf 94 KB | 2,672 downloads
http://assets.forexfactory.net/images/attach/zip.gif Breaking down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour GbpUsd.zip 640 KB | 2,982 downloads
  • #27,969
  • Jul 29, 2014 12:18am Jul 29, 2014 12:18am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Yvon, I am very grateful for you great great patience. You never give up (on me) and keep trying to explain. Seriously, I am very thankful for you kindness. My stubborn brains would not understand that trade you took and tried to explain to me how you did it. I have been thinking and re-reading you replies many many times since Friday to try and make sense of them but my stubborn brain just won't understand. I even think about them in my sleep but still they won't make sense. But I have this to ask: 1. It looks to me on the candles, before...
Hi Nic,
Thanks Binnie for brining some references to Nic.


”Sorry, to keep asking you the same question, I feel bad. The diving method you used, help very little as I cannot see that the candles pattern is allowing any entry, neither the MACD. But yes, I understand about the RT / SHS you use. But by just using SHS / RT is not sufficient to indicate one can go ahead and pull the trigger. Right?”

By reading your question, my guess is maybe you don’t quite understand the “rhythm” of the market. –I suggest you go back to page one , you need to understand that part. And the rules that go with it.
Otherwise your wallet can get killed in no time!

Just to answer about my trade: that 62 pips trade was done accordingly to the rules because I saw the rhythm and I was able to anticipate what was going to happens. I knew what those candles and their locations meant to me. Because I know the rules, I just acted accordingly. That’s the answer.

Phillip Nel said something very important. And the first thing I did was to translate it to French. I read it again and again, I forgot the original in English;
But I will do it for you. I’ll do my best to translate it back to English.
There it is:
“It is not as much the strategy that failed but it is most likely the user’s consistency in applying the principles that comes with the strategy. We tend to bend the principles and make our own rules.”

It all starts with the strategy!
But Phillip Nel mentioned that the rhythm is the “heart of the system”. Go back to it, there is something you probably missed. This way you will feel more and more confident. It is not easy to trade, welcome in the club! It is not easy to learn either. And I have to tell you that even now, I know that sometime, I bent the rules! So again I say to anyone, including myself: welcome into the club!
Btw, I have made a comparison with the rhythm and a stairway! It did help me to SEE the rhythm, please visit post 24836. and tell me what you think about it,---it is not perfect, I know! take the time to understand each page, pay attention to the moving averages’s colors there,
Yvon
  • #27,970
  • Jul 29, 2014 1:25am Jul 29, 2014 1:25am
NZDUSD
sold it on a pull back to the 8ema,making a TC at the same time
the ATR average abourt 200 pips on the weekly chart, so considering what has been done already, then the price could reach the 89sma (on the weekly chart) about .8300 as a possible target.
already 15 pips secured
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140728NZDUSD.png Size: 111 KB
Yvon
  • #27,971
  • Jul 29, 2014 1:51am Jul 29, 2014 1:51am
Quoting trademin
NZDUSD sold it on a pull back to the 8ema,making a TC at the same time the ATR average abourt 200 pips on the weekly chart, so considering what has been done already, then the price could reach the 89sma (on the weekly chart) about .8300 as a possible target. already 15 pips secured {image}
Nice entry you pip - thief LOL.

@ NIC See how Yvon has anticipated his entry here. He does not need to rely on macd triggers now. This is what Phillip has been saying all along. Once you & I get to see & understand the motion of the market, the Macd will not really be needed. Phillip does not use it now as far as I am aware. We will also be able to get in like this one Yvon shows us.

I am in the Pound now but I used the Macd to give me the trigger confirmation. There was an earlier entry for me as shown but I am not experienced enough yet. Getting there though !!
Right - lets go baby. Break out of this wee consolidation then go find the Daily 89 ( please )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_H4_29_July_Entry.png Size: 65 KB
  • #27,972
  • Jul 29, 2014 2:07am Jul 29, 2014 2:07am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Nic, The ma's play the same roles in each timeframe - they are simply a measure of the average of x number of candles or bars. This I think you already know. What we have to follow with Phillip's rules, is that it makes no difference what Timeframe we are on , price will react the same to each of these ma's. For instance , if price is above the 89 on any chart - the MOOD is generally considered BULLISH. If price breaks through the 21ma from either direction - it tends to pull back to it before moving on to the 89. If price arrives at...

Thanks for that ....good to watch whilst eating breakie....... food for thought...

On a personal note, i can't remember the last time i went down to the m15/m5/m1 just to make a trade...okay, I sometimes watch them when i am ready to close a trade...

I didn't realise this, but i have made that giant leap/step by only browsing the h1/h4/daily/weekly/monthly....Just as it says to do on page 1 of every forex manual...

Only 3 years after reading page 1 ..............

Thanks Binnie....
  • #27,973
  • Jul 29, 2014 2:12am Jul 29, 2014 2:12am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Thanks for that ....good to watch whilst eating breakie....... food for thought... On a personal note, i can't remember the last time i went down to the m15/m5/m1 just to make a trade...okay, I sometimes watch them when i am ready to close a trade... I didn't realise this, but i have made that giant leap/step by only browsing the h1/h4/daily/weekly/monthly....Just as it says to do on page 1 of every forex manual... Only 3 years after reading page 1 .............. Thanks Binnie....

Only 3 years after reading page 1 me too buddy. Amazing how much you pick up each time you go back over old ground eh?:nerd:
Have a neat day mate.
  • #27,974
  • Edited 3:26am Jul 29, 2014 3:12am | Edited 3:26am
Yvon and Binnie

Thanks for your posts.

The chart below is how I explain and understand market rhythm. Please comment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Market Rhythm 2.png Size: 32 KB


Binnie I could understand your post 27,921 very clear. Yvon no negative comment about your chart in post 27,920. Pperhaps it's a bit too advance. I don't see that as a pull back, move away rhythm if that's what you mean. Maybe it's too advance, I just cannot see the rhythm. It looks flat to me.... move away, pull back extremely short candles, almost like not moving. Sorry for my blindness on this and keeping you on the same issue. I have a second chart here taken from post 27,920 (Yvon's post) and is this the move away and pull back you mentioned? Is this your analysis and how entry point was decided? Keeping my fingers crossed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 364 KB


Thank you.

Nicholas
  • #27,975
  • Jul 29, 2014 5:48am Jul 29, 2014 5:48am
Pound Trade Progress

Have closed 1/2 for +20pips at the H4 365ma which I expected to be my 1st trouble area. Balance of trade now at B/Even +2 so this one's a winner.
Still anticipating a move down to the Daily confluence level of 89ma / T.Line Support and 62 Fib.
See how we go.
Off to bed now so I am happy to be in the pips before next Red news in 3hrs time.
Happy Day to all.
Yvon - hope your still going with the Kiwi trade although looks like it could be stalling a bit now. Showing signs of another RB. I'll try to keep pushing it down for you my friend

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_29_Jul_Update.png Size: 38 KB
  • #27,976
  • Jul 29, 2014 5:51am Jul 29, 2014 5:51am
Quoting nic73
Yvon and Binnie Thanks for your posts. The chart below is how I explain and understand market rhythm. Please comment. {image} Binnie I could understand your post 27,921 very clear. Yvon no negative comment about your chart in post 27,920. Pperhaps it's a bit too advance. I don't see that as a pull back, move away rhythm if that's what you mean. Maybe it's too advance, I just cannot see the rhythm. It looks flat to me.... move away, pull back extremely short candles, almost like not moving. Sorry for my blindness on this and keeping you on the same...
Hi Nic,
Thanks for your drawing,
Question

  1. how would you position your drawing in order to match mine?
  2. on the chart(mine) how many TC to the 21ema do you see on the macd? And why?
  3. how should you consider those candleS that you consider as being flat?

Yvon
  • #27,977
  • Edited 6:04am Jul 29, 2014 5:53am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting binnie
Pound Trade Progress Have closed 1/2 for +20pips at the H4 365ma which I expected to be my 1st trouble area. Balance of trade now at B/Even +2 so this one's a winner. Still anticipating a move down to the Daily confluence level of 89ma / T.Line Support and 62 Fib. See how we go. Off to bed now so I am happy to be in the pips before next Red news in 3hrs time. Happy Day to all. Yvon - hope your still going with the Kiwi trade although looks like it could be stalling a bit now. Showing signs of another RB. I'll try to keep pushing it down for you...
you are funny Binnie!

BTW, here is my GBPUSD chart,
question for Nic:
how many TC on the macd do you see on that last trade(yellow circle)?
how far before that trade could you say that "you anticipate a trade where I took it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140728GBPUSD.png Size: 118 KB
Yvon
  • #27,978
  • Jul 29, 2014 5:58am Jul 29, 2014 5:58am
Quoting nic73
Yvon and Binnie Thanks for your posts. The chart below is how I explain and understand market rhythm. Please comment. {image} Binnie I could understand your post 27,921 very clear. Yvon no negative comment about your chart in post 27,920. Pperhaps it's a bit too advance. I don't see that as a pull back, move away rhythm if that's what you mean. Maybe it's too advance, I just cannot see the rhythm. It looks flat to me.... move away, pull back extremely short candles, almost like not moving. Sorry for my blindness on this and keeping you on the same...
Hi there Nic,
Buddy don't become fixed on the issue. Remember that Yvon has been trading for many years and has been part of this thread for a very long time. He has developed his own special insight of price action around the ma's and this includes anticipation of what a candle MAY do next. He is never always right but he has the back & forward testing to prove to himself that he has an edge doing things his way.
Your post & sketch is bloody near spot on IMHO - well done. If I has asked you to explain motion around the Ma's and you sent me this, I would understand exactly what you have said. The drawing is the Rythym of the Market - with practice, we will all be able to make judgement calls like Yvon and with good success.
If you stick to looking for exactly what you have drawn for us - you will be a winner mate. Keep up the progress, keep reading & re-reading the lessons and definitely keep asking questions & posting charts.
Just my sixpence friend.
  • #27,979
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:14am Jul 29, 2014 6:14am
Quoting binnie
Pound Trade Progress Have closed 1/2 for +20pips at the H4 365ma which I expected to be my 1st trouble area. Balance of trade now at B/Even +2 so this one's a winner. Still anticipating a move down to the Daily confluence level of 89ma / T.Line Support and 62 Fib. See how we go. Off to bed now so I am happy to be in the pips before next Red news in 3hrs time. Happy Day to all. Yvon - hope your still going with the Kiwi trade although looks like it could be stalling a bit now. Showing signs of another RB. I'll try to keep pushing it down for you...
well done Binnie! doing great, no doubt about that!
Yvon
  • #27,980
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:34am Jul 29, 2014 8:34am
Hello everyone,

This morning i check GBPUSD and EURUSD, and they were in the similar situation. Just they touched the 21 ema, bouncing there, and by the rule (I guess!) i sold both...

i sold this morning 8.00 GMT +2 both GBP/USD EUR/USD, i thought was a good time, and since now i am +37 pip in GBP/USD with one take profit at 1.69369 (now the price si 1.69398) and another take profit at 1.69210. Where is your take profit? Do you think it would go more down?
About EUR/USD i am +16 pip now, i have two take profit, one at 1,34113 and the other at 1.33972. What do you think also about EUR/USD? Do you think it will dive more than this point?

Thank you,
Mirko
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