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  • #1,121
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:46am Jul 26, 2014 7:46am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Yep makes sense, like I said my nemesis is lack of discipline and reacting to a strong move terrified that I'm going to miss out if I don't jump in quick!!! But you're absolutely right I must stick to my rules and in particular the entry rule as I have seen so many examples when that pending order doesn't get hit. Its staggering how many times my signal candle doesn't get taken out by 2 pips and price just backs off and disappears the other way. It really is a very reliable entry signal and yep I will stick to it going forward Mr V. By the...
Who cares if you miss a move? There's plenty. Everyday. Like everyone is telling you, stick to your rules. Nothing new.
  • #1,122
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:37pm Jul 26, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} My conclusion??? I need to be catching continuation trades a lot earlier before they go overbought or oversold.
Hi Clive, and to all the contributors and followers, I hope not to disturb.
Yesterday I stumbled across this thread. Must say I like what I read. Haven't read everything. But just reading the past couple of pages I understand that Clive is trying to get it 100% perfect. What a great goal. And yes one need to aim high if he wants to reach a goal. ............(I read those meaningful lines from your Dad Clive!)..........

I want to add my 2cents regarding overbought and oversold. Don't forget that one of the characteristics of a strong trend is that oscillators signal overbought or oversold.
Just some food for thought...

Best Regards
  • #1,123
  • Jul 27, 2014 11:53am Jul 27, 2014 11:53am
Quoting colbru
{quote} Hi Clive, and to all the contributors and followers, I hope not to disturb. Yesterday I stumbled across this thread. Must say I like what I read. Haven't read everything. But just reading the past couple of pages I understand that Clive is trying to get it 100% perfect. What a great goal. And yes one need to aim high if he wants to reach a goal. ............(I read those meaningful lines from your Dad Clive!).......... I want to add my 2cents regarding overbought and oversold. Don't forget that one of the characteristics of a strong trend...

Yep thats right so when we catch a London or New York breakout its going to be overbought or sold as its trending strongly so we have to recognise that but also we have to remember that 70% of the time a pair will reverse from an overbought/sold position , so this means the London/New york breakouts are the exceptions not the rule.

It just makes me think "shouldn't we be trading the higher probability setup??" But the answer of course is to trade both, and try to identify the strong trenders (LO NYO breakouts) and hold them until the trend ends. But of course be aware that the overbought/sold markets have a tendency to reverse at any moment, so proceed with caution.

I think early on in my strategy I kept assuming that every time I caught a 1 min trend that it was a London breakout and was going to keep going forever, but of course 7 times out of 10 it wouldn't. Then bear in mind that there are 28 pairs to choose from, it becomes increasingly difficult to catch the London breakout. So from now on I assume nothing and just trade the trend until it falters, but if it remains strong with each move, AB leg, higher or lower being stronger than the last I will hold.

The other really important improvement is once we've identified a Top Trender then have a look at its 1 min chart to identify exactly where we are in the move?? Is it wave 1 , 3 or 5 we're about to trade?? Working on an idea to identify if the trend will continue after the ABC move and if so enter at end of C so catching wave 1 of the new move. All early days yet but getting there for sure.

I am particularly interested in identifying wave 1 which is basically the first move in a reversal, not trading it as yet but just identifying it so we can then trade wave 3, the meat of the move. To that end I am very interested in oversold or bought conditions on the 15 min CCI as these are the pairs that will reverse the hardest and give us our bigger RR trades.

I've been checking out LO and NYO's quite a bit recently and looking back at as many as I can to see if I can identify a London breakout by its characteristics. I would say there are a couple things that are coming to light more than anything else.

1) Its usually a reversal of the overnight move.

2) Therefore its quite often top of my 5 min trenders first thing in the morning.

3) Its normally gone very overbought or oversold on the 15 min CCI.

This all makes sense when you think it through, lets say GBPAUD has moved up strongly overnight. Then there's a lot of traders there holding nice buy positions ready to bank (sell) at the first sign of a reversal. This of course provides the ideal liquidity needed by the London traders to fill their sell orders. You see it all works as long as you remember they are only there to make money and thats the easiest way for them to do it.

This is something to work with going forward heres a typical market reversal chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: What goes up has gotta come down.png Size: 104 KB


Notice how the 15 min CCI goes from overbought to oversold then swings back again to overbought. I think this is something we need to be looking at more often. These 15 min swings are what we need to be trading on our 1 minute charts. Imagine if the 15min CCI turn we are trading is a LH or HL in a strong trending 15 min pair??? We could hold our early 1 min entries until the 15 min trend ends.

For the time being I am going to just keep trading the strong trending 1 min charts but if I catch a good 15 min CCI turn then I will be looking at the 15min chart to determine whether to hold or fold. For instance if I'm selling and its a LH 15 min CCI turn then I will be considering holding on the 15 min chart.

Well thats it from me will see how the next week goes lets see what we catch going forward....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,124
  • Jul 28, 2014 2:15am Jul 28, 2014 2:15am
Morning analysis for today.

No news releases this morning and just one this afternoon for USD so no need to worry about news today.

Overnight movers GBPNZD EURNZD top of 5 min trenders and approaching a nice 15 min high last Fridays high in fact so might see some reversal action there.

Attached Image


As for right now , well can't expect too much action as its Monday with little news but will just keep an eye on my 1 min TT's see how they shape up. Right now a bit of EUR strength which I had a quick go at EURNZD but didn't like the price action or the pending Friday high so GTFO at BE. EURCAD looking ok but I don't like that Friday high lurking so need it to pullback away from that so I can get to BE if I have a go at it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thats it for now....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,125
  • Jul 28, 2014 2:38am Jul 28, 2014 2:38am
Caught it but don't really like the PA so gone to BE quickly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADM1trade1.png Size: 46 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,126
  • Jul 28, 2014 2:48am Jul 28, 2014 2:48am
EURCAD seemed to be struggling so I nipped 4.6 pips out of it, of course it will probably fly now, but hey ho if it does it does.

Also got distracted by the GBP strength all of a sudden so might swap horses from EUR to GBP.

Yep EURCADs put a spurt in , HA HA don't you just love it!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,127
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:11am Jul 28, 2014 3:11am
Well its an interesting morning we've had EUR strength , then a quick GBP burst now CAD weakness is dominating. Hmmm makes me think theres going to be a change shortly and a quick reversal somewhere??? GBP possibly????

Attached Image


Pleased today that I haven't lost money today as these sorts of LO's can be trouble, I'm going to wait now to see some clear indication as to where the actual monies going if its going anywhere today???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,128
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:20am Jul 28, 2014 3:20am
Nope there's nothing to trade is there? Even my EURCAD didn't go far so I didn't miss out too much there. The 1 min TT Indy has'nt gone much above 20 all morning so theres no real money flying around yet. Maybe there won't be today?? Maybe "The Good Old London Boys" are waiting for the New Yorkers to show their hand first???

Who knows? Not me for sure.

So I'm just gonna sit here and wait for something to start moving then see if I like it and if it shapes up ok I'll give it a go.

Time for my morning cuppa I guess..........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,129
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:35am Jul 28, 2014 3:35am
These are the current 4 1 minute Top Trenders. Pathetic aren't they????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Its times like this we have to learn to not trade theres just no point. Nothing is trending strongly so we stand every chance of losing our money.

Just gotta wait for some money to hit the table and until it does sit tight.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,130
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:12am Jul 28, 2014 4:12am
Had a feeling it might be a GBP pair today....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,131
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:44am Jul 28, 2014 4:44am
Bit of a tussle but we got there in the end but as its a bit tricky gone to BE quickly lets see if it breaks lower now, hope it does becos then my BE stop will be nicely protected.

Stopped out as I type so another BE trade but not surprising really as it kept stalling around this 15 min support level. Best to go to BE when its like that. my best trades just enter and keep going so was always suspicious of this one. Some would say just enter place your stop and leave it alone. Take your loss or winner as they come, but to be honest when I see faltering price action like that I think, "whats the point of hanging on and hoping?? It didn't do what I expected so GTFO asap at BE or better."

Of course the other thing is if it breaks this level then 9 times out of 10 it will give me a break and retest entry so just wait for that but if this is the end of the run down then better out than sorry..

Might well go but just not this time....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1trade2.png Size: 52 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,132
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:56am Jul 28, 2014 4:56am
Well that was a very interesting LO there, not any real money around I don't think just a sporadic scattering every now and again. But considering that nothing really took off I'm very pleased that I didn't actually lose any money this morning as a month ago I surely would of. In fact I made a small profit this morning, my explorer says 5%, but when I take off commission I think its more like 3% , what I would consider a "break even session".

Looking back its easy to see why, there was no sustained move whatsoever so no wonder.

Going to mark that down as a successful mornings trading all things considered........
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,133
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:18am Jul 28, 2014 5:18am
Hi Clive

Nothing got my interest this morning either.
  • #1,134
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:03am Jul 28, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Clive Nothing got my interest this morning either.

Not surprising really as nothing happened did it??

I just had another go at GBPUSD but looked like nothing but trouble so another BE trade but considering the very rangy morning with obviously no money around I'm chuffed not to lose this morning.

All looking good for a good LO or NYO if they come along. Learnt today that if it doesn't do what you want then get out asap, all part of the learning curve for me....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,135
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:13am Jul 28, 2014 6:13am
Quoting clivepackham
Morning analysis for today. No news releases this morning and just one this afternoon for USD so no need to worry about news today. Overnight movers GBPNZD EURNZD top of 5 min trenders and approaching a nice 15 min high last Fridays high in fact so might see some reversal action there. {image} As for right now , well can't expect too much action as its Monday with little news but will just keep an eye on my 1 min TT's see how they shape up. Right now a bit of EUR strength which I had a quick go at EURNZD but didn't like the price action or the pending...

Hmmm this is interesting those overnight reversals I mentioned in my morning analysis were worth keeping an eye on thats for sure , about the only thing that would of worked today. Even EURNZD looks a bit iffy. But GBPNZD is ok wander how we missed these setups???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDM1overnight mover.png Size: 52 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdm1.png Size: 56 KB


Its tricky to identify the best setups but all we can do is take what we see, can't do any more but I'm going to keep a closer eye on any previous session moves thats for sure....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #1,136
  • Jul 28, 2014 7:08am Jul 28, 2014 7:08am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hmmm this is interesting those overnight reversals I mentioned in my morning analysis were worth keeping an eye on thats for sure , about the only thing that would of worked today. Even EURNZD looks a bit iffy. But GBPNZD is ok wander how we missed these setups??? {image} {image} Its tricky to identify the best setups but all we can do is take what we see, can't do any more but I'm going to keep a closer eye on any previous session moves thats for sure....
Clive, just a quick one;
How important is setting a pending order and not a market order?It reduces my BE pips and still it may get hit as well in that case if a break of B isnt achieved you wont break even hence a loss. Please help me understand.
Another thing isnt setting a pending order of 2 pips hard to achieve when there is high volatility? think it may turn out to be more than 2 pips by the time it is set.
Please Vantange Sir, kindly analise why nothing made it for you this morning....Think we had some good setups on gbpnzd,eurnzd,gbpjpy and gbpaud. Please analyse for me atleast why you wouldnt take any of the setups that came up....hope to analise it like you tomorrow....thanks

Clive again well done for not making any loss...but i would love it more if you made your analysis according to a setup, trade it and let it unfold itsself, then we analyse why it didnt get to our target incase it comes out negative. ..guess your tight stops can accomodate a loss once in a while...
Thanks man
  • #1,137
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:20am Jul 28, 2014 9:20am
EURNZD long taken awhile back... divergence, good price structure, support at 50 level.

Skipped the blue line entry as that 70 CCI move back into trend happened on a down bar which nulls it for me... Took my enrty at the green vertical line. Hasn't moved a huge amount but have hit 2:1 thus far. Wider SL than I like at 10 pips but still manageable.

Entry and SL shown on the chart.

Not sure if this is going any higher but I closed half for 2:1 so worst case is a SL and a net 1:1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDprimeM1.png Size: 103 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #1,138
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:22am Jul 28, 2014 9:22am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hmmm this is interesting those overnight reversals I mentioned in my morning analysis were worth keeping an eye on thats for sure , about the only thing that would of worked today. Even EURNZD looks a bit iffy. But GBPNZD is ok wander how we missed these setups??? {image} {image} Its tricky to identify the best setups but all we can do is take what we see, can't do any more but I'm going to keep a closer eye on any previous session moves thats for sure....
..that's the joker in the pack!!!
  • #1,139
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:34am Jul 28, 2014 9:34am
Quoting pres78
EURNZD long taken awhile back... divergence, good price structure, support at 50 level. Skipped the blue line entry as that 70 CCI move back into trend happened on a down bar which nulls it for me... Took my enrty at the green vertical line. Hasn't moved a huge amount but have hit 2:1 thus far. Wider SL than I like at 10 pips but still manageable. Entry and SL shown on the chart. Not sure if this is going any higher but I closed half for 2:1 so worst case is a SL and a net 1:1. {image}
I think EVERYTHING hinges on having a solid sifting algorithm that throws up the highest probability pairs to consider for setups at LO, based on what happened at Asia. Thats what the Top Trenders list is supposed to do...but I think it's a bit too volatile, changes too quick? just my opinion anyway. I'm using a differnt CSM. Threw up EURNZD and GBPNZD for buy setups. From that point, my strategy is quite different from clives on handling the scenario. I wait for pullbacks to either the Daily Open or bottom of shi channels to buy.
  • #1,140
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:18am Jul 28, 2014 10:18am
Quoting pres78
EURNZD long taken awhile back... divergence, good price structure, support at 50 level. Skipped the blue line entry as that 70 CCI move back into trend happened on a down bar which nulls it for me... Took my enrty at the green vertical line. Hasn't moved a huge amount but have hit 2:1 thus far. Wider SL than I like at 10 pips but still manageable. Entry and SL shown on the chart. Not sure if this is going any higher but I closed half for 2:1 so worst case is a SL and a net 1:1. {image}
Closed out second half for 1:1, net 3:1 gain.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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