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Is random really random?

  • #121
  • Jul 25, 2014 12:37am Jul 25, 2014 12:37am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} Rubbish would be trying to trade fundamentals in the CURRENCY markets each day. Try it and then let me know how it works out for you. I've done it and it comes nowhere as effective as trading technicals each day. You need markets to move and in Forex, fundamentals alone do not provide you with enough decisive synergy. You may catch a hot period where both News and Economic Indicators collide during a stretch of time that seems like you always have decisive synergy, but keep trading each day and you will find that to not be the case on a...
Im sorry you went to such great lengths but I have already made the point and it is a fact... you do realize that there is no 'can't' in trading, you may be unable to do it but that does not make it impossible
tradewith60
  • #122
  • Jul 25, 2014 12:42am Jul 25, 2014 12:42am
Quoting smash1820
Hello! Guys... I understand that this is quickly becoming a very heated debate, in which case, I would suggest that it should remain friendly. I will assume, until proven otherwise, that all of us here are good traders with good intentions. We do not mean to hurt each other and we are ALL here to learn, and improve our trading. Let us never take that for granted, Rule #1. I personally do not believe that the markets are random, and I would love to eventually prove so, but it is going to take some time and it is not exactly a priority of mine. I...
hey smash, watch the video.... if you know all the elements that will effect the outcome you could say it was not random... and you as a retail trader can never know that, so for you there will be an element of randomness.

p.s agree on keeping it a clean fight
tradewith60
  • #123
  • Jul 25, 2014 12:52am Jul 25, 2014 12:52am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} That's got to be the most uninformed statement you've made thus far in this thread regarding what Fundamental Trading is and what it is not. It speaks volumes about where you are as a Trader. I think I'll let it stand on its own and only highlight the most telling component: {quote} Which is precisely what the system does not do, but since you know the algorithms behind the system which were not posted and not shown in the pic, I guess you know my system better than me and I should be listening to you about how best to use it. Have a good...
you built a news trading algo that failed, that does not mean you can not trade fundamentals.
tradewith60
  • #124
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:09am Jul 25, 2014 3:09am
Interesting video.

IDoubleStoch.... you are a fucking idiot. Save us all the pain and do not post anymore colourful pictures.
  • #125
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:28am Jul 25, 2014 3:28am
Quoting TranceTrader
Interesting video. IDoubleStoch.... you are a fucking idiot. Save us all the pain and do not post anymore colourful pictures.
That is not a very nice thing to say ....
  • #126
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:33am Jul 25, 2014 3:33am
Quoting hanover
Whereas (rightly or wrongly) I tend to envisage something that's evenly balanced, simply because I have no knowledge of who the participants are, or their agendas, and therefore whether the volume of buyers exceeds the volume of sellers, or vice versa, at a given point. Hence, in lieu of anything better, I assume an evenly balanced distribution, with no implied upside/downside bias. Of course in reality that's not the case, but it's the best assumption that I can make, given the (lack of) information that I have.
This is exactly this. If I ask you if GBP/MNX is going up or down I bet you never trade this pair and you have no clue. Instinctively you'll open a weekly or daily chart and you start having a little bias. This is the basement of the Bayesian inference oriented methods. At first you have a very uncertain guess. Then you get some fact and your knowledge improves as well as your certainty. If the price starts to move upward you can conclude there are probably more buyers than sellers, at least for now. Locally the distribution is no more even.

If the market is purely random it happens that the trend lasts exactly as if there was something to sustain it. That's wrong of course. Say you flip the coin and you get a lot more of heads than tails. You'll need a lot of tails now to balance back to 50%. During this 2nd period you'll get again some head keeping the score above 50%, just by random chance. Since we look at the price returns (head=up, tail=down), the price itself is the integration of the result. As long as the result contains more heads you integrate a positive value and the curve increases. You get a trend just by random chance!

If the market is not random and the fundamentals sustain the trend again it will last in time. So random or not random: don't fade the trend!

In trading we have inverse problems to solve. For instance if the trend changes the MAs will cross. But the converse is not true and MAs may cross for other reasons (mainly oscillations in a range and deep pullbacks). So the question becomes what is the probability of a trend changed knowing the cross. Same for RSI in oversold territory or any other indicator. That's this uncertainty that people refuse to accept and therefore reject the indicators because they "don't work".
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #127
  • Jul 25, 2014 3:44am Jul 25, 2014 3:44am
Quoting phdmonster
{quote} That is not a very nice thing to say ....
Agreed... but I'm tired of seeing the constant churn of these naive yet obstinate individuals who pop up on the forum with their oh so obvious and "proven" methods/analysis/system utterly bemused that no one else can see what they see, to the point of being offensive to any scrutiny.

The reality is that it's all nonsense...all of it, and he will likely realise this in 6/12 months like so many before him.
  • #128
  • Jul 25, 2014 4:07am Jul 25, 2014 4:07am
Quoting TranceTrader
IDoubleStoch.... you are a fucking idiot.
.. with multiple user names. Just ignore him.
  • #129
  • Edited 4:45am Jul 25, 2014 4:27am | Edited 4:45am
Quoting TranceTrader
{quote} Agreed... but I'm tired of seeing the constant churn of these naive yet obstinate individuals who pop up on the forum with their oh so obvious and "proven" methods/analysis/system utterly bemused that no one else can see what they see, to the point of being offensive to any scrutiny. The reality is that it's all nonsense...all of it, and he will likely realise this in 6/12 months like so many before him.
Well to begin with i don't trust forex " formations" of this sort - H&S, double top, double boo*job and all that. Never had a win trade with any figure or candle stick formation....
When i saw these rectangles and quadruplets i nearly fell off my chair from laughter. And when the guy didn't offer any explanation how to work with these things or even how to draw them because he developed them by himself... Well i lost interest for his strategy and i lost respect for him (as much as i had in the first place).
On the other hand i can understand why he doesn't share this kind of information... Though he is in th wrong place if he only wants to brag how good (if) his strategy/method is....
  • #130
  • Jul 25, 2014 5:34am Jul 25, 2014 5:34am
To look for patterns in random data (Yes, they can be found) is a sure sign of insanity. This is a famous example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.
  • #131
  • Jul 25, 2014 6:22am Jul 25, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Mingary
To look for patterns in random data (Yes, they can be found) is a sure sign of insanity. This is a famous example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.
I'm not sure this is a good example... From what i read this guy was a genius.
And the data we are looking at is not random :-) The idea for patterns though is stupid because of the everchanging nature of humans and everything created and "ruled" bu them ..
  • #132
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:06am Jul 25, 2014 9:06am
The big picture results are as follows:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2v820kl.jpg

After slugging through the low Volatility period in the USDJPY, the key B2i Pattern finally came through with price plowing through the original target area. The real key here is that even while taking a much earlier trade during a period of relatively low Volatility for an H1B2i setup, the D1 B2i Pattern provided the back-up necessary to remain in the trade as stated yesterday. This also demonstrates the necessity of Multidimensional Analysis across ALL Time Frames for optimal Situational Awareness within the context of your own Trade Signals. All Trade Logic should contain input from ALL Time Frames, for the "Big Picture" view.

Here we see what the D1 B2i Pattern now reveals:

http://i60.tinypic.com/161jk8z.jpg

As indicated, price on the D1 Chart migrate back through Fall Line as predicted by the D1 B2i Pattern. So, in all the Time Frames that I displayed yesterday, we see the B2i Pattern repeating itself with consistency and reliability.

When people tell you that the market has no predictive nature, no repeating patterns that can be tapped, is completely random and chaotic, is only something the "Big Boys" can trade successfully, you know that you are listening to someone that has not done the necessary homework to prove what they are saying to you. With a little creativity and a willingness to get out of your own way (dropping the ego), anyone can study the data and begin the search for repeating patterns.

This B2i Box is a very old pattern that I discovered several years ago during the financial crisis near 2008. I researched the pattern through many different types of instruments even though I only trade currencies. You can see this pattern in many different financial markets that are traded each day. In total, I looked back through all the major currency pairs as far as the historical data would take my research. Stocks, Options, Bonds, Metals, Oil, Commodities - you will find this pattern repeating itself with regularity.

The B2i that I have shared with you here is NOT the same B2i that is incorporated (integrated) into my trading system. This was the original baseline prototype version - the plain Jane Vanilla version. Even so, the baseline concept is solid. I've put this indicator through five (5) major revisions over the years and it is now as optimized as I can make it. I have not worked on the indicator from an engineering standpoint for the past three (3) years.

Data Analysis is Data Analysis. It is a good skill for any Trader to develop, regardless of your approach to trading (technical or fundamental). Developing the skill that enables you to spot patterns in data that others either don't see or have difficulty seeing, can be a major win for you and your trading career.

If a young person were to ask me what I though were the essential skills required to be successful as a trader, I would put Data Analysis in the top five (5) skill-sets. You can be successful without it, but you can also gain insights into market behavior that others don't have or have not yet developed through good Data Analysis skills.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #133
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:20am Jul 25, 2014 9:20am
[quote=Proximus;7630161]{quote} {quote} Dude you are contradicting yourself../quote]

You need to learn to read in context and stop splicing the words of another to prove a point that does not exist. Second, you need to simply take what you have seen here at face value and stop pretending that you did not see it happen with your own eyes. None of the Boxes that I drew for you yesterday or today showed failures in their B2i structures. ALL of them moved to their respective Fall Lines once the dust settled and it is up to you to figure out why - I am not going to tell you why.

The remainder of your post is fairly moot, as the B2i structures themselves do the talking for me. If you have an argument with the structures, then make your argument from a logical standpoint, instead of repeating the same wrong things over and over again.

This thread asked the question: Are the markets truly random?

The answer I have provided is a resounding, no! I then went on to prove my claim in broad daylight (I did not merely come in here and run my mouth). I could do this all day, everyday, every week, every month and every year - year after year - with just this one indicator. If reading an Economic Report were capable of doing it for me, then I'd be a reader of Economic Reports. Technical Analysis provides me with the path of least resistance to consistently reliable profit scenarios and a level of empirical satisfaction which is highly important for Trader's Psychology.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #134
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:27am Jul 25, 2014 9:27am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Im sorry you went to such great lengths but I have already made the point and it is a fact... you do realize that there is no 'can't' in trading, you may be unable to do it but that does not make it impossible
You can do it. I'm saying for me - technical models provide a far superior method for consistency in profitability and produce more confidence in developing positive expectancy (for me). I've also shown that so-called randomness in markets is a misnomer and with patience, hard work, determination, creativity and a willingness to get out of one's way, one could teach that lesson to themselves.

The patterns speak for themselves. What I am saying is that there is no fundamental analysis that can or ever will account for these patterns. That is impossible. Not that being a successful fundamental trader is impossible.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #135
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:44am Jul 25, 2014 9:44am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} you built a news trading algo that failed, that does not mean you can not trade fundamentals.
I guess reading is not your strong suit. A 72% accuracy rating in the model is failure in my eyes, but I know others would kill for 72% to a specified target. That is too low for the kind of risk I take in the markets each day. If you think 72% accuracy to a specified target is failure, you are welcome to your opinion.

My question would be, are you trading above 72% accuracy to a specified target using Fundamentals alone? If you are, then you are beating a fundamentals based system that I developed over 10 years ago. If not, then you are currently under performing a fundamental model that I developed over 10 years ago. Either way, good trading to you.

I prefer the technical route to consistent profits as it provides a crystal clear cut logical explanation for trade execution and a specific target level that is known before the trade is executed, as well as a specific calculated draw profile that is historically synchronized with all other trade profiles of matching characteristics. You can't accomplish that same thing with Fundamental Analysis because the input variables are infinite.

If you understood Systems Engineering Theory (Control of Inputs & Variables), you'd know why technical modeling is far more precise a tool for this task. I could teach the subject, but that's not what this thread is about, nor am I inclined to teach someone a subject they think they know better than me. I should be learning about Systems Design Theory from those who know the subject better than myself - not the other way around. If I do not know a subject well enough, then I should probably learn from those that do.

So, teach me about how you develop a Fundamental Model where the target is empirically defined, the risk is empirically defined, the Time In Trade is empirically defined and where the overall probability for a successful trade outcome according to a specific revenue projection (requirement) is also empirically defined? Have you built such a model driven purely on Economic Reports? I've tried and the closest I've been able to come is 72% accuracy with all the above parameters in place before the trade is made.

72% is just not good enough for me. So, If you can teach me how to improve upon that, I'm all ears.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #136
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:46am Jul 25, 2014 9:46am
Quoting TranceTrader
Interesting video. IDoubleStoch.... you are a fucking idiot. Save us all the pain and do not post anymore colourful pictures.
The idiot is the one who looks at patterns repeating themselves and then calls the one who posts the pictures an idiot. If you had half a brain, you realize how silly a comment that was. Have you read the OP? The OP wanted to know whether or not the markets are random.

The colorful pictures provides the answer, moron.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #137
  • Jul 25, 2014 9:53am Jul 25, 2014 9:53am
Quoting phdmonster
...And when the guy didn't offer any explanation how to work with these things or even how to draw them because he developed them by himself...

You were given a specific explanation of how to draw the box yourself, but you either don't read or can't read.

It is mind blowing that retail forex still has people like you in it - or maybe that's their business model - having people who don't pay attention and cannot read open accounts and then blow them wide open with standard approaches that don't work.

The posts contain the information you need to paint the box on your screen and test it for yourself. If course, since neither you read the posts, you don't know that already. If you were in a class being taught this stuff, it would be people like you dragging the rest of the class down the tubes - all because you can't keep up.

The boxes and their results today speak for themselves. Long was the trade - Long was the move - all explained for you in detail.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #138
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:00am Jul 25, 2014 10:00am
Quoting euclid
{quote} .. with multiple user names. Just ignore him.

Or, just go create a new indicator that does not work very well and then put people on ignore who show things that do. That makes a lot of sense.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #139
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:13am Jul 25, 2014 10:13am
Quoting TranceTrader
{quote} Agreed... but I'm tired of seeing the constant churn of these naive yet obstinate individuals who pop up on the forum with their oh so obvious and "proven" methods/analysis/system utterly bemused that no one else can see what they see, to the point of being offensive to any scrutiny. The reality is that it's all nonsense...all of it, and he will likely realise this in 6/12 months like so many before him.
http://i59.tinypic.com/2emevjn.jpg

It really is all nonsense. It just makes no sense at all, really.

The reason you cannot see what I see has everything to do with the fact that I do not trade manually. To get you to "see" what I see, would mean opening up a fully integrated trading system developed over years and pouring it into your brain. You would no more "see" what I see if I did that, than a blind man seeing the forest for the trees.

My post was in response to the OP's question and dealt with one specific piece of a very large trading system, not a dissertation on how to get you to "see" what I see. You can't "see" what I see - it is a System that was engineered from the ground up over the course of years. How do you expect to "see" that.

Behind the System is more of what you cannot "see":
http://i59.tinypic.com/2yn4j2v.jpg

http://i58.tinypic.com/516l9i.jpg

But, that is not the purpose of this thread. Mine is not to reveal a trading system to you. Mine was in response to the OP's question. B2i, is fully integrated into this System as one small component of the whole. You cannot "see" that.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #140
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:29am Jul 25, 2014 10:29am
Quoting phdmonster
...When i saw these rectangles and quadruplets i nearly fell off my chair from laughter...
That's what silly people do. They laugh at things that can't understand and then wonder why their trade results look so dismal:

More of what you cannot "see" because it is a fully integrated Trading System. The rectangles were drawn on the screen to help your childlike brain get up to speed on the basic concept of one (1) indicator in a system containing more than 1200 such inputs.

This is the signal processing center of the system:
http://i57.tinypic.com/1zwhyc9.jpg

More of what you could not "see." Not a laughing matter at all now, is it.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
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