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Is random really random?

  • #61
  • Jul 24, 2014 6:58am Jul 24, 2014 6:58am
I agree with this Prox'
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #62
  • Jul 24, 2014 7:06am Jul 24, 2014 7:06am
1- U D D D D U U U U U D D D D U D U U U U D D D D D D D D D D D D
2- D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U
3- D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U
4- D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U
In the 4 sequences above, the 1st was generated randomly and can be seen as a choppy market, the second can be seen as two impulsive trends, the third can be seen as a range, the fourth can be seen as a congestion. Yet all of them have 50% U and 50% D. Overall they have the same distribution as a coin flip.

The market alternates between those four states for a given time scale. Each of these states shall be traded differently. As far as I know the duration of each of them is also random.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #63
  • Jul 24, 2014 7:12am Jul 24, 2014 7:12am
Quoting PipMeUp
1- U D D D D U U U U U D D D D U D U U U U D D D D D D D D D D D D 2- D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U 3- D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U 4- D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U In the 4 sequences above, the 1st was generated randomly and can be seen as a choppy market, the second can be seen as two impulsive trends, the third can be seen as a range, the fourth can be seen as a congestion. Yet all of them have 50% U and 50% D. Overall they have the same distribution...
The only thing that is random in the market are the congestion periods of tight ranging movement.

Every breakout, trend or whipsaw has its own, and somewhat predictable reasons.And to detect that you need to consider observing money flow across the world, this cannot be predicted with pure chart analysis.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #64
  • Jul 24, 2014 7:16am Jul 24, 2014 7:16am
Quoting PipMeUp
1- U D D D D U U U U U D D D D U D U U U U D D D D D D D D D D D D 2- D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U 3- D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U D D D D U U U U 4- D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U D U In the 4 sequences above, the 1st was generated randomly and can be seen as a choppy market, the second can be seen as two impulsive trends, the third can be seen as a range, the fourth can be seen as a congestion. Yet all of them have 50% U and 50% D. Overall they have the same distribution...

you look for the common pattern which also could be analyzed from three columns to give one rule common and then you minus the 4 pattern rule from it and you have the fifth truth that should appear this is a rough though sorry if i could not provide more i really did not practice this rule in things yet but i have this practice for it as i find the three started things of this world please look at it it gives you at the end dimensional molecules that takes three dimensions like things we see around us and involved wi
33-43=0=2=10
(3.3-4.3)*10=0=2=10
(-1))*10=0=2=10
-1*10=0*0=2*0=10*0
0=-1^0 =2=10^0
3t-4t=-1
3t-44=-1
3t=43
t=43/3
4t-60
3t-4t=-1
3t-4(43/3)=-1
3t=4(43/3)-1
3t=4t-1
t=1
t=1=43/3 =7/3
t=1=7/3 =7-3=4 =t
0=2=10=t3-4t =34-44=10
t=4=43/3=1 =43-3=40 =4
t=4
t=1
t3-4t=31-44 in m 3-16=-13 =-4
t3-4t=31-44in a 4-8=-4
-4=0
0=2=10=-4=4 =-1
t=1=4
0 2 10 -4 4 -1
1 4
001000111 = 1797+326+5100-3400=3523 =1101 t101
1=t101 =t =4
t101=4 =101*1 =101
t=101 =123 =6 =0101
0101=101
1+4=tt 01010101=-3400+326-3400+326=-6148 =-1*6148=0*0100 =0+0100 = 100
tt=100
t=1=4 ,tt=100 4+4=8 =2rr =00101
tt=00101 = 32=010 =10
tt=10 = 100
t=1=4
0=2=10=t3-4t=-4=4
t=0
t=t3-4t
t=t3-4t
t=0=2=10=-4=4=-1=1 =43/3=7/3=7-3=4=101
t3-4t=t 101*3-4*t=t
101+3-4+t=t
101+01-101+101=t
111-000=t
t=111
4+t=5
101+111=5 =1011 =001 =01
5=3=01 =21=11+10=11t
11t=5=3=44=-44=11=-11
dimisions 5 3 -44 44 11 -11
5+3=8 -44+44 =0 11-11=0
8 0 0 = 2rr=00101 =101
so we have a one molecule that is 101 its is an even molecule that have 05 03 -044 044 -011 011 as diminsions in space
05 03 -044 044 -011 011
-44 44 in x axis -11 11 in y axis 5 3 even with the other side in axis
this gives us pyrmid or molecule 101
charactristica of molecule 101 t3=4t t01=101t then t=1
so when we are in status where t=1 we get molecule 101
that shows why things fluctuate between highs and lows .
cheers
when movement complete we get 101
move is in three dimisions end result always is 101 which is 05 03 -044 044 -011 011 move .
t3-4t=0 10101-1001 =0 1001 = 22= 00 =0
when t =101 0=0

0=2
t=2 = 11 =011 = 31
t3-4t=31 10101-4t=31
4t=31-10101
4t=011-10101 =0101
t=0101 - 101 =1111 =04=4
when 0 = 2 then t =4

0=1
t=1 = 01 = 3
t3-4t=3 10101-4t=3
4t=001-010101=001
t=001-101= 001 =21 = 3
when 0 = 1 t = 3

0=-1 t=-1 = 10 = 010 = 21
t3-4t=3 10101-4t=21
4t=001-10101=001
t =001-101=001 =21=3

when 0 = -1 t = 3 =001
4001 = 0013 - 101
101001= 00101 - 101
101001+00101=101
1001 = 101
11=101
t=4

03 03 -01 01 -021 021

03 03 -01 01 -021 021 when we have 001 molecule
when 0=-1 = 010 t = 3 = 001 we have molecule 001 which is 03 02 -01 01 -021 021 in dimensions
3=-1
when 0 = 2
t=11 =011 = 3+1 = 4
t3-4t=4
4t=4 - 3t
4t=011-3101
011t =011 -01101
t=01101 = 32 = 010 =5
when 0 = 2 t = 5
0=2 t =5 =010 = 21
t3-4t=3 10101-4t=21
4t=001-10101=001
t =001-101=001 =21=3

when 0 = 2 t = 5 =010
4010 = 0013 - 101
101010= 00101 - 101
101010+00101=101
1001 = 101
11=101
t=2
05 03 -02 02 -021 021 when we have molecule 010



0=4 = 101 =0101 = 22=4
when 0=4 t = 4 =0101 = 101 =2+1 = 3
t3-4t=3
4t=3-t3
4t=101-10101
101t=101-10101
t=-10101 =101010 = 33=6 = 0101
when 0=4 t =4
t3-4t=0 6*3-4*6 =6
03 06 -04 04 -06 06 when we have molecule 0101 = 101
so we have three molecules 101 001 and 010 as basic of structure
any diferent molecule is fluctuating end structure
we have basic building structures and logical alterneted fluctuating moves with logical zeroism alternated possibilities by any new added zero value

zero value depends on move and external rebalancing physical effects .



all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #65
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:34am Jul 24, 2014 8:34am
Sorry I just don't get anything.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #66
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:40am Jul 24, 2014 8:40am
Quoting orabi
{quote} you look for the common pattern which also could be analyzed from three columns to give one rule common and then you minus the 4 pattern rule from it and you have the fifth truth that should appear this is a rough though sorry if i could not provide more i really did not practice this rule in things yet but i have this practice for it as i find the three started things of this world please look at it it gives you at the end dimensional molecules that takes three dimensions like things we see around us and involved wi 33-43=0=2=10 (3.3-4.3)*10=0=2=10...


As a programmer by trade once I created a compression software. I was really impressed because the program I created compressed 10 bytes into 1. I thought Zip and Winrar would be out of business tomorrow as soon as I went commercial with my discovery.
Unfortunately, once compressed with my algorithm the bytes could not be decompressed ... (:
  • #67
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:41am Jul 24, 2014 8:41am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} The only thing that is random in the market are the congestion periods of tight ranging movement. Every breakout, trend or whipsaw has its own, and somewhat predictable reasons.And to detect that you need to consider observing money flow across the world, this cannot be predicted with pure chart analysis.
But isn't the money flow changing itself in a pretty random fashion? When will be the next worldwide recession? When will the FED decide a new QE? What time of the day will the next BoJ intervention on the Dragon? ...
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #68
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:45am Jul 24, 2014 8:45am
Quoting PipMeUp
Sorry I just don't get anything.
Hi you can not get it at least becaue you dont know the basic rule that that there are even numbers and non even

so any number that are even give us 0 zero and non even number gives as 1 so that is the rule because in even numbers we have no rule it represent zero and non even number gives us a rule so it is represented by 1 that is one of the rules and really you need a special kind of mind i made a study to mine it is precious with 200 IQ in 1997 now days i took a treatment after i had bipolar disorder so it lowered down to 159 and i lost some o my speed and memory because i lived a great life with music and you know
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  • #69
  • Jul 24, 2014 9:08am Jul 24, 2014 9:08am
Quoting orabi
{quote} Hi you can not get it at least becaue you dont know the basic rule that that there are even numbers and non even so any number that are even give us 0 zero and non even number gives as 1 so that is the rule because in even numbers we have no rule it represent zero and non even number gives us a rule so it is represented by 1 that is one of the rules and really you need a special kind of mind i made a study to mine it is precious with 200 IQ in 1997 now days i took a treatment after i had bipolar disorder so it lowered down to 159 and i lost...
So the whole point of your post was to NOT be understood?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #70
  • Jul 24, 2014 9:12am Jul 24, 2014 9:12am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} So the whole point of your post was to NOT be understood?
may be you can say that but i thought you can sort it out i don't put a point less post my point was written at start that i have exercised the equation in the example and i did not exercised it in any thing else yet this was my point
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #71
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:34pm Jul 24, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting saneblane
... it doesn't use patterns like most other methods that i see. My method follows the flow of money throughout the entire market where ever it leads and pairs that move more freely than others.
By definition - that is a Pattern. All traders trade patterns whether they know it or not.

This is one of the interesting things about traders in general. They think that by using the word "pattern," that there must be some kind of formation of bars on a chart that are visible to the naked eye - or some super sophisticated model. While some patterns can be very sophisticated in their structure many good patterns are fairly simple in structure.

The vast majority of high quality patterns having sufficient structure to trade for profit are hidden to the naked eye and not visible on a two dimensional chart.

This is primarily why one has to go inside the data to find the patterns. Patterns that everyone else can easily see sitting on the surface of a two dimensional chart, won't be available patterns for long because everyone and their grandmother will be using them which will have the net effect of distorting what they see and diluting the structure of the pattern over time - making the patter less effective than it could be.

I call them Patterns In The Wild. These are patterns that roam freely in the market without direct and deliberate interaction from traders who know about them and exploit them. I call the others Domesticated Patterns. These are the patterns that many traders already know about and thus attempt to exploit in large numbers when they arise, causing the pattern itself to unnaturally evolve. You want patterns with low exploit inputs. Free ranging patterns in the wild where you are the only exploit.

In other words, you want patterns that come from derivative market data based in your own unique tools (indicators/etc) and that contain all the hallmarks of stability mentioned above. These are low exploit free ranging patterns and they are the most stable once they are vetted.

All the best on your encoding efforts!
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #72
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:49pm Jul 24, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting phdmonster
... Technicall analysis sucks most of the time, but to use fundamentals you need deeper knowledge in this sphere. :-)

You can trade technicals each day. You cannot trade fundamentals each day. You can trade technicals each hour. You cannot trade fundamentals each hour. You can trade technicals whenever a valid patterns emerges, but you have to wait around to trade the fundamentals. Even when you do have an abundance of fundamental data coming out, if you do the homework and run the data analysis as I have, you will see that attempting to predict the Directional Outcome from an Economic Report Input into a Trade Decision has a lower probability of winning than 21 at Vegas. Why? Because of already existing counter-economic influences in the same currency at the time of the release. And, when you then factor in the counter-economic influences of the counter-currency at the time of the release, you are literally playing Russian Roulette.

You can go through all of that, or you can enter the market on the emergence of a statistically sound pattern and allow the shape of that pattern to fully form before exiting the position, where the shape and duration of the pattern depends on the dimension of time being used in your underlying derivative market data (indicator data).

Of course, Russian Roulette, can be very exciting! However, I have found that boring trades are for more palpable over the long run.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #73
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:54pm Jul 24, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} You can trade technicals each day. You cannot trade fundamentals each day. You can trade technicals each hour. You cannot trade fundamentals each hour. You can trade technicals whenever a valid patterns emerges, but you have to wait around to trade the fundamentals. Even when you do have an abundance of fundamental data coming out, if you do the homework and run the data analysis as I have, you will see that attempting to predict the Directional Outcome from an Economic Report Input into a Trade Decision has a lower probability of winning...
rubbish, why can't you trade fundamentals each day? - fundamentals doesn't just mean trading news releases.
tradewith60
  • #74
  • Edited 1:25pm Jul 24, 2014 1:11pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} You can trade technicals each day. You cannot trade fundamentals each day. You can trade technicals each hour. You cannot trade fundamentals each hour. You can trade technicals whenever a valid patterns emerges, but you have to wait around to trade the fundamentals. Even when you do have an abundance of fundamental data coming out, if you do the homework and run the data analysis as I have, you will see that attempting to predict the Directional Outcome from an Economic Report Input into a Trade Decision has a lower probability of winning...
What i meant is that even if a "valid" pattern occurs it can still fail... I can't seem to recall an indicator that doesn't fail... (excluding the ones that are not used to trading but for showing spread and things like that). MACD, Stochastics and all those other indicators... They show you a valid/standart entry point, but they f**k you up sometimes (some more then others though).
Fundamentals - yes you are right, you can't trade NFP (for example) every 5 hours, but when they show an increase in their value something happens, when they show the opposite - the opposite happens and it is up to you to determine for how much this will continue. If you take the long term fundamental news (those that determine medium and long term moves) and trade with them and you know how to trade with them and when say "F. this im out" and close your possitions - you are imo superb. And in my opinion for you to know these things you should have a better grasp at the "situation" so to say. For example GB... Lets say you trade only the GDP pairs or even only the GDP/USD pair... Something big happens and your trading platform is going bananas... If you know how to react to the bananas and fly with them and at the end land with them and go out of the trade - you win. But i don't think it is possible if you don't at least have deeper knowledge about the "big thing" that happened, or forex in general, or the economical situation and the public reaction to the "thing" and other things like that.... I hope you understand where i'm going... Take the civil war in Ukrain for example... If i recall correctly the euro went downhill for a long time due to the trouble there and still there were a lot of people here buying on the EUR/USD... and got trades closed out manually and stopped out on so many strategies and methods - as i said i go dumped 3 times and i decided to take a break until things get "better" so to speak.

If you want to trade fundamentals the best way you just need to take more factors into the equation and make it even more messier, unless of course you are not born with a 6th sense. Insight and knowledge about how to asses the situation are in my opinion better then any technicall analysis or indicator or whatever... Just not as easy to come by as an Simple moving average, right? :-D

Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} You can trade technicals each day. You cannot trade fundamentals each day. You can trade technicals each hour. You cannot trade fundamentals each hour. You can trade technicals whenever a valid patterns emerges, but you have to wait around to trade the fundamentals. Even when you do have an abundance of fundamental data coming out, if you do the homework and run the data analysis as I have, you will see that attempting to predict the Directional Outcome from an Economic Report Input into a Trade Decision has a lower probability of winning...
rubbish, why can't you trade fundamentals each day? - fundamentals doesn't just mean trading news releases.

I don't know... Depends how you understand "fundamentals"... The most common definition i hear is news from economic callendars... If you have another opinion - please share. Forums are made for that purpose, not just saying "rubbish" and not explaining anything else after that....
  • #75
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:36pm Jul 24, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
Of course, Russian Roulette, can be very exciting!
I wonder why no more people play Russian Roulette. You can play as many times as you want you will never lose more than once. Probabilities look very good!
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #76
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:37pm Jul 24, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} I wonder why no more people play Russian Roulette. You can play as many times as you want you will never lose more than once. Probabilities look very good!
This made my day.... :-D Have a good one everybody :-D
  • #77
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:00pm Jul 24, 2014 2:00pm
One thing is for sure in the markets, if we could predict the markets we would all be rich and there probably wouldn't be a market to predict.
  • #78
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:13pm Jul 24, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting orabi
Hi all i like the subject i wish i had a document file but it was erased i think that looking at a circle will provide us with some clues...
The image you drew at the top was an interesting one. It reminded me of some patterns that I look for in my trading. Below you will find a Market Pattern that has low exploits - meaning that hardly anyone other than myself knows about it or trades it (until now). I've been using this pattern since 2008, with great regularity. The reason I am sharing it, is because I have since created several extensions from this pattern that I am not sharing, which makes it far more effective. This is the fundamental baseline pattern take from a unique indicator that I call: B2i.

Essentially, the patter only has two (2) lines - even though you see four (4) lines. If you look very closely, I have begun two lines - one moving from the opening price of the bar which starts a new hour (in this case the 20:00 hour) and moves to the Highest High of that hour. And, one starting at the new hour (20:00) and moves to the Lowest Low of that hour. Nothing tremendously new there because those prices points already have to be made in order for the first two base lines to be draw. But, then it gets rather interesting.

The next two lines are what I call Projection Structure Lines. They are Derived Lines, taken directly from the first two primary lines. I simply Replicated each primary line and then moved it to the starting point of the opposite line. This creates the Box like structure you see, but it also provides (upon revelation and discovery) and projected price level where price itself has a high propensity for returning within the next hour or so.

Note WHERE the 20:00 hour begins and ends. Then note (during the 20:00 hour) where the Highest High and the Lowest Low are established. You will then note that both the Highest High and Lowest Low were established BEFORE the end of the 20:00 hour. What happened next? Well, just like clockwork, price fell from the Highest High right back to what I call the Fall Line of B2i - horizontal line drawn directly through the intersection of the Projected Lines. Price has a high probability of "falling" (or climbing) back to to this Projected B2i Intersection.

I have since enhanced this to be much more effective in its predictability over the years.

http://i60.tinypic.com/5cy8lv.jpg

You will also note that the point of intersection just happens to coincide with what would also be called the B:C leg of an ABCD pattern. This is precisely what I mean by trading patterns that others do not see. They are especially effective when your patterns are part of an otherwise well known public pattern with high visibility.

This unique pattern essentially tells me where the B:C leg will be most impacted by price. As of the drawing of this B2i Pattern, you can see that price is spot on the Intersection inside what others might call the CD leg of the more "Domestic" ABCD pattern. My B2i pattern is in the Wild and hidden from public view, but it sits right there under the nose of most ABCD pattern traders without them knowing it.

The next USDJPY B2i Box would be initiated at 21:00 hours and it looks like its Lowest Low has already been set, leaving the Highest High to be established when price was already BELOW the 20:00 B2i Fall Line. A perfect setup for entry into a Long Position for the number of pips the structure historically allows.

This is how you can trade what nobody else can see, producing an edge for yourself that nobody else has.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #79
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:28pm Jul 24, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} makes an interesting point though - future price has nothing to do with what happened before and everything to do with what is happening right now.... where does that leave technical analysis?
Hello again 60. The above statement is clearly not true. Future price (the "track" that price is likely to take) frequently has a lot to do with past price action. "Right now" is just a point on the chart. Patterns develop as big players work their processes, and the pattern persists until they change to a different set of processes. It's all part of the market structure. When you have agreement in process/pattern/structure, you trade and enjoy predictable results. When these three things are not in agreement you stop trading. Of course, it is possible to trade the transitions, but results can be unpredictable.
  • #80
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:30pm Jul 24, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} The image you drew at the top was an interesting one. It reminded me of some patterns that I look for in my trading. Below you will find a Market Pattern that has low exploits - meaning that hardly anyone other than myself knows about it or trades it (until now). I've been using this pattern since 2008, with great regularity. The reason I am sharing it, is because I have since created several extensions from this pattern that I am not sharing, which makes it far more effective. This is the fundamental baseline pattern take from a unique...
great pattern i will die and memorize this post you are really great sir thank you very much you see i tried to memorize abcd structure because it reflects also the t3-4t=0 as you see it is formed of four point but the bipolar drugs am taking really are harming my thinking through the day but i promise you i will memorize this post and put it as a bible thank you very much
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