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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #131,561
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:41am Jul 24, 2014 1:41am
I just got a fill on an AUDJPY pair which I thought I might share with you. Pinbar at a good level with a small but decent amount of space to the left. I'm on the 8H but the setup looks good on the 4H as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.

I have been awaiting a retracement on the all AUD pairs and aussie/yen looks the best to me. The ascent in the last 24 hours has been so incredibly steep and the greedy bulls need to take profit some time!

And, just an update to my last trades: I scaled out of my EURGBP trade and got stoped for the rest at BE. Still have a short position running on EUR/USD which it looks like is trying to make another leg down.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,562
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:33am Jul 24, 2014 3:33am
Edit to my post above: I've pulled my orders on AUDJPY for a small loss. The area in which I entered, 95.720 I have noticed is actually a pivot and quite a good one at that, respected more times than not.

I am entirely prepared psychologically for AUDJPY to crash like Livermore himself were shorting it. I am fine for it to do so without me on board.

My concern is that if anyone is following my trades and entered on my post above, I hope for your sake it goes well. If it does not, I would feel terrible. It's this emotion that is the reason I don't trade family member's accounts despite their requests - it's not any additional stress that I need.

For this reason, I've decided that I shall post my watchlist charts, and my retrospect trades in analysis (both good and bad), and avoid posting live trades. I feel like the spirit of this thread is education rather than a signal service and I'd like to continue to respect that.

Cheers all. Trade safe.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,563
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:45am Jul 24, 2014 3:45am
anyone watching usdzar? price sitting on a long term rising TL and BO level
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  • #131,564
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:51am Jul 24, 2014 3:51am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Sorry but negative news does not mean instant loss. News is just news bad or good doesn't matter. It all depends on the context. for eg. if we are in a uptrend and news is negative markets can rally like crazy.At the same time if news is positive and market is in uptrend , market will again rally. News just accelerates the movement in the context.
If you daytrade with 60pip SL you might be right - you dont get stopped out. I do since - my stops are around 10-15 ticks on FX and on equities 4-5 ticks.I also tend to fade some news (NFP) or trade with them (rate decision, geopolitical crysis, sentiment change.)Seems we trade different. Sorry for the mess - good luck with your trading.
It's all psychology...
  • #131,565
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:57am Jul 24, 2014 3:57am
Quoting FxLester
Taking this counter trend trade on the EUR/GBP. I only take counter-trends with patterns (H&S, double or triple bottoms) and divergence. Here we have price action, a double bottom, MACD divergence to the long side and we've broken through a minor psych of 9000. Close first area and the counter-trend nature of this trade means that my management is going to be really aggressive on this one. {image}
That EUR/GBP trade I posted earlier is taking off now. Combination of PA+Divergence+Capitulation pattern+psych level is quite a deadly combination of confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,566
  • Jul 24, 2014 4:03am Jul 24, 2014 4:03am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} If you daytrade with 60pip SL you might be right - you dont get stopped out. I do since - my stops are around 10-15 ticks on FX and on equities 4-5 ticks.I also tend to fade some news (NFP) or trade with them (rate decision, geopolitical crysis, sentiment change.)Seems we trade different. Sorry for the mess - good luck with your trading.
Ahhh, so you a scalper. That is a very very hard style of trading. I don't go below 4H, it's very scary down there .
  • #131,567
  • Jul 24, 2014 5:40am Jul 24, 2014 5:40am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Ahhh, so you a scalper. That is a very very hard style of trading. I don't go below 4H, it's very scary down there .
Not exactly a scalper.
More of swing trader with lover TF / volume confirmation.
On the indexes (Dax, Bund, ES, ZN) i scalp (10ticks profit 4-5 tick SL).

It's not that scarry as it's described by most of the FF community. But dont try to scalp from MT4 ;-)
Funny thing I learned over the years was that you should do
1) What works for you
2) What others don't want / or what others find hard.
People find hard taking a long when price fall 30 ticks in 5-10minutes. So the "common" unprofitable traders massively sell these moves. While pro's massively buy.

Anyway have a nice day with profits ;-)
It's all psychology...
  • #131,568
  • Jul 24, 2014 7:02am Jul 24, 2014 7:02am
D bar not closed yet but interesting pinbar setting up to short USDDKK
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  • #131,569
  • Jul 24, 2014 9:50am Jul 24, 2014 9:50am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Not exactly a scalper. More of swing trader with lover TF / volume confirmation. On the indexes (Dax, Bund, ES, ZN) i scalp (10ticks profit 4-5 tick SL). It's not that scarry as it's described by most of the FF community. But dont try to scalp from MT4 ;-) Funny thing I learned over the years was that you should do 1) What works for you 2) What others don't want / or what others find hard. People find hard taking a long when price fall 30 ticks in 5-10minutes. So the "common" unprofitable traders massively sell these moves. While pro's massively...

Agreed LamerTrader.

What i found hard with scalping is that it causes stress and hence you are likely to make more mistakes, also you need to have a extremely profitable strategy to scalp and one move against you can wipe out all profit or cause major loses. Scalping i guess is best left for algos these days.

Long term scalping will cause stress.On the other hand trading 4h/dailies is quite relaxed , your position sizing/ risk is comfortable and you get enough setups a month and you can make a living trading these higher TF.

I have tried scalping and it just doesn't fit well with my style and psychology.

I see it this way - I know retail traders have to scalp because

1. They have a need/want to make money everyday.
2. Account size is not big enough to take positions on higher TF due to bigger stops.

But the issues and need for scalping is -
1. Markets(indices,stocks,..etc) don't have volatility everyday because institutions don't take swing positions everyday. They either accumulate or distribute depending on their profit objectives and strategies on higher TF. They have their algos scalping for them and you are essentially competing with them even at 5 min TF.
2. entering(getting you fills) and exiting is hard on lower TF due to faster price movement. Imagine if your stop doesn't get hit ,it can have a disastrous impact on your account depending on the size of your account. Not everyone scalps with a big account and have the stomach to bear a loss when stops don't get hit.

I dunno, maybe scalping was easier a few decade back , but these days its all algos on the lower TF.
If scalping is working for you that's great, just not my cup of tea .
  • #131,570
  • Jul 24, 2014 10:40am Jul 24, 2014 10:40am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Agreed LamerTrader. What i found hard with scalping is that it causes stress and hence you are likely to make more mistakes, also you need to have a extremely profitable strategy to scalp and one move against you can wipe out all profit or cause major loses. Scalping i guess is best left for algos these days. Long term scalping will cause stress.On the other hand trading 4h/dailies is quite relaxed , your position sizing/ risk is comfortable and you get enough setups a month and you can make a living trading these higher TF. I have tried...
Hi!

Personally I found indexes (and futures) much better for intraday trading (and for trading overall) since they are not that dependent on the news coming from forex, and less likely manipulated. And they also have one more thing that the usual FX does not: Volume.
If you want to use volume it doesnt mean you have to scalp. It's just an extra tool that futures and other non-OTC products provide for trade confirmation or win rate enhancment. (For me atleast this is what it does.) In the usuall FX world you have a zone where you want to sell. In futures i have the same too, but if I see 2*250 lot lifting the offer i migth not be as eager to sell as I was before. On the other hand if I see 2*300 hitting the bid can mean that big guys are just selling where I am. And big guys tend to defend their big positions ;-)

If you have the access i would definitely look into the level 2 world.
Take care ;-)

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #131,571
  • Jul 24, 2014 12:42pm Jul 24, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} . Funny thing I learned over the years was that you should do 1) What works for you 2) What others don't want / or what others find hard.
That is a damn fine quote. Wonderful and wise advice Stephen.
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,572
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:21pm Jul 24, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting FxLester
{quote} That is a damn fine quote. Wonderful and wise advice Stephen.
Thanks Lester, keep up the great work with the charts.
You might add your thoughts and management process afterwards the trade happened, cause that's what most peope lack. But once again - great work

Cheers
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #131,573
  • Jul 24, 2014 6:06pm Jul 24, 2014 6:06pm
Dear FxLester,

For me AUDJPY is looking like Broadening Top but one more peak required.

I always trade Daily charts. 4 Hour chart is too fast for me. Now I am back testing in 6H & 8H charts. I tried periodcon indicator for converting daily timeframe into 6H/8H chart but the no. of candles in history are small.

Which platform do you use for 6H/8H charts? Can you post the indicator?

Naveen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131,574
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:41pm Jul 24, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting whynotnaveen
Dear FxLester, For me AUDJPY is looking like Broadening Top but one more peak required. I always trade Daily charts. 4 Hour chart is too fast for me. Now I am back testing in 6H & 8H charts. I tried periodcon indicator for converting daily timeframe into 6H/8H chart but the no. of candles in history are small. Which platform do you use for 6H/8H charts? Can you post the indicator? Naveen. {image}
I don't like linking to commercial content as I'm not affiliated with anyone in any way and I don't want to endorse anything. The platform I use is commercial and a bit pricey ($480 US/year) so PM me if you want to know the name of it. PeriodConverter on MT4 can be a bit buggy sometimes.

I've started a free blog, to document my exploits. Hope the mods don't mind me linking to it:

http://www.fxpep.com

Also, I'll be joining the PF this weekend. I've really enjoyed the free videos on youtube. If anyone is interested, check it out at the link below. Be sure to watch "Rants and Charts - A closer look at what we do". Man, do I wish I had found you guys at the start of my travels: http://www.youtube.com/user/J16group
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,575
  • Jul 25, 2014 1:18am Jul 25, 2014 1:18am
Quoting FxLester
I just got a fill on an AUDJPY pair which I thought I might share with you. Pinbar at a good level with a small but decent amount of space to the left. I'm on the 8H but the setup looks good on the 4H as well {image}. I have been awaiting a retracement on the all AUD pairs and aussie/yen looks the best to me. The ascent in the last 24 hours has been so incredibly steep and the greedy bulls need to take profit some time! And, just an update to my last trades: I scaled out of my EURGBP trade and got stoped for the rest at BE. Still have a short position...
My view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.png Size: 37 KB
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #131,576
  • Jul 25, 2014 1:23am Jul 25, 2014 1:23am
Quoting Magestic
{quote} My view {image}
Agreed mate!

Did you see my post shortly after I posted that chart? On further pondering I retracted my analysis as the entry was confluent with a pivot.

Cheers,
Follow me on twitter @FxLester
  • #131,577
  • Jul 25, 2014 2:13am Jul 25, 2014 2:13am
Quoting FxLester
{quote} I don't like linking to commercial content as I'm not affiliated with anyone in any way and I don't want to endorse anything. The platform I use is commercial and a bit pricey ($480 US/year) so PM me if you want to know the name of it. PeriodConverter on MT4 can be a bit buggy sometimes. I've started a free blog, to document my exploits. Hope the mods don't mind me linking to it: http://www.fxpep.com Also, I'll be joining the PF this weekend. I've really enjoyed the free videos on youtube. If anyone is interested, check it out...

Thank you FxLester.
  • #131,578
  • Jul 25, 2014 4:07am Jul 25, 2014 4:07am
Quoting FxLester
{quote} Agreed mate! Did you see my post shortly after I posted that chart? On further pondering I retracted my analysis as the entry was confluent with a pivot. Cheers,
Now I saw :-)
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #131,579
  • Jul 25, 2014 6:55am Jul 25, 2014 6:55am
Quoting FxLester
{quote} I don't like linking to commercial content as I'm not affiliated with anyone in any way and I don't want to endorse anything. The platform I use is commercial and a bit pricey ($480 US/year) so PM me if you want to know the name of it. PeriodConverter on MT4 can be a bit buggy sometimes. I've started a free blog, to document my exploits. Hope the mods don't mind me linking to it: http://www.fxpep.com Also, I'll be joining the PF this weekend. I've really enjoyed the free videos on youtube. If anyone is interested, check it out...

Rants and Charts....about 50% of the reason I joined the PF was watching that video. The other 50% was mbqb11's constant involvement here and his free content. His Space video (think it may be part of the guest section too) is one of the best.

Enjoying your charts Lester...keep up the great work!
  • #131,580
  • Jul 25, 2014 8:01am Jul 25, 2014 8:01am
I would like to ask you about one thing. If we trade A+ setup, we want to have a space with no traffic. At charts below on gbpjpy we have nice BUOB but have we got a space to trade? Or first trouble area is so close to take this trade?


Cheers!
Darius
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