4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Hi Yvon,

Very interesting to read through your analysis. Especially as the Eur/Usd has broken to the downside today which usually jives with a Gbp/Usd bear run.

Here's what I have, sorry it looks a bit messy but had to add annotations into it to try and explain.

With the tag of the 1.272 extension/2009 high and it now seeming to form a higher low, it could prove to be a H & S and the turning point in this corrective wave, especially if Carney talks up the GBP tomorrow. There's a lot of air between here the next structural point up so it could be the start of quite a strong move.

If it breaks the 1.70352 level I think there could be a pretty strong down move as I am guessing there are going to be a hell of a lot of stops that get taken out under that point. Once it gets to the 1.618 extension (fitting expanded flat profile) it also hits the may high and the 1.7000 handle. This could prove another turning point back to the upside.

If that doesn't hold I think it is likely to then head down to the 1.6100 / 1.6000 level.

Either way it goes it looks like there could be some good opportunities to get in on pullbacks to the 21ema.

I could be totally wrong, but this is what I have got at the moment. I welcome any feedback as like I say I am still new to this so there is a good chance I am missing something!

Thanks

Hi Yvon - I need your help again please. I am guessing you are in the Kiwi based on your analysis from a day or two back? Would you mind posting a chart showing your entry to get short - I am a bit confused as my analysis is worlds apart from yours and it will help me heaps to see what " I AM NOT SEEING "

I have read the Daily to be Bullish - My H4 indicates a H & S formation which if correct will put me back in line with the Daily Trend. My trigger was based on the H1 Bullish pattern. ALAS - another kick in the bum.

I realise you have analysed the Weekly to form your view but this is now a case where the Weekly & Daily conflict.

Your views & others are really appreciated. I am probably concentrating too much on H & S perhaps but will wait for feedback. Thanks guys

Hi Binnie,
here is the chart where my trades are- As you will realize that my SL are too closed to the actions...instead of just keeping the trade open from trade one until the last! it is a weakness from my part, not from the Strategy. I'll post my comments later...the time to write them,

Hi Binnie,
Those are questions that maybe some other traders want answers, that is why I cover more on the subject, thanks for your patience,

I go in detail,

The HS is a figure of 3 RT .So RT are part of the strategy. Except that there is 3 RT in a row, while there is a divergence on the macd (5,13,1---important set up)----but what is the divergence???

It is caused by TIME and calculus, (nothing to do with a change in trend!!!) it is the formula that gives that! Not because there is necessary a trend change.

But also the macd is a momentum… so there is less and less momentum expressed by the traders…on each bounce from the 21ema, more and more traders are sitting on their hand so to speak., making at the same time HS, or RTs in a row.

The range covered from the top to the neckline is just an up trending channel!
When the price breaks it, it tends to pull back to it before going away.
My interpretation of a trend change is when price has broken the trend line (or neckline), pulled back to it, and moved away…from that channel which has a range that wants to be reproduced again.---And this is why you can see a “projected range” on my chart. And when it is reached, usually, some traders just sit on their hands, so price will fluctuate just a bit, maybe consolidate, making a pause there. Usually I just do the same: sit on my hands! Waiting for some figure to develops,
The rhythm is so important while being so expressive! Just by following the rhythm bouncing on the 21ema, one can act accordingly, and make profit.

The reference to trade is on the 4hrs chart, action are taken from the 4hrs chart… the daily or weekly is to see where price should be heading (rhythm) the lower time frame (1hr) is for a fine tuning entry, if needed.
I can see if there is a HS under construction on the chart or not. Sure I find the HS “beautifull” but the rhythm is better than that. (my view here!)

Daily and weekly , my view, do not conflict.

I brought some thoughts here but not sure if it fits what you need, just let me know please,

and a last one , showing the range projected has been reached, it doesn't means that it is always the case, it is just a possibility.the range has been reached and some traders just got out at that point. but look at the rhythm, after breaking the 21ema, the 89, the price pulled back to the 8ema, moved away down, then pulled back to the 21ema before falling lower...until the 365!

@ Trademin

Hey there Yvon,
Many thankyous for your replies. I am just rushing out so I will be looking forward to learning from your chart & posts as soon as I return home from a meeting.

this one is about the EURUSD: That is the weekly chart which shows RT, a break of the 21ema( in blue), then a pull back, then a move away. my SL is very thigh on this one

there is maybe some 40 pips to go, but already some 40 pips secured on that pair
the trade has been taken from the 4hrs chart.

---the SL is closed to price since there is a possibility of a move up.----

edit: yea! hit by the SL (again): +36 pips...


"there is maybe some 40 pips to go": because there is a possibility that price could reaches lower at around 1.3400

That trade worked out perfectly, mainly because i didn't trade it

As boring as this is, i am always amazed at how the support and resistance lines drawn from daily/weekly act like magnets.

MACD divergence about to take place?

Entry for long.
Target = 21ema
SL at TL

Entry if last candle closes higher.

Hi Nic73,

I'm in with you on this one as of the last candle - I have set my target to around the 35018 area for an almost 2-1 risk-reward. But it's a bit of a risky one as it is counter trend and could tag the 13450 level/1.618 extension before moving up. So I will have to keep an eye on it.

yaakruay - I also missed this trade this morning as I couldn't get on, but I have 0.94603 as next strong resistance level and it's looking like it could be set for a pullback to the 21ema before another move up to it. Might be worth watching?

Also just taken this trade with the price moving above the 21ema then pulling back to it, small candles giving it a good r:r ratio of about 1:5. Overall trend is up and is third bounce on the support line.

Looks good as per rules

the NZDUSD just broke down:
30 pips secured, Now 41 pips secured

NZDUSD closed trade: 62 pips hit by SL

YES on that one. but just a bit later I closed another trade with 19 pips gain

Hi Yvon,

I don't get it. How did you decide and come up with that entry point? But here was not MACD indication on H4 TF for entry. Did you enter using the daily chart?

Thanks.

Nicholas

Hi Nic,
sorry for taking so much time to answer you , but there it is, the reference to charts are from just above,

NZDUSD:
Do you see the rhythm?
Let’s take it from the daily chart since you brought it (post 27932). Look what the price does: the price is over the 21ema ( the last RT there that touches the upper trend line), now see it breaking the 21ema (in blue), then a pull back done by 2 green candles, see them now.Then 2 red candles show a start to eventual more pronounce move away down. So the anticipation from that point would be another red candle, no doubt about that. I was even anticipating soon a strong candle because a break below the HS was inevitable considering all those RT just before the last one, so taking a short was evident for me, already waiting for that strong candle! ( I am glad when I am "on board" to catch the ride down)

On the 4hrs chart I see the price bouncing on the 21ema (in blue). And when I took that trade (on the 4hrs chart), just before I took that trade, could you anticipate that it would bounce again against the 21ema? I certainly did at that time!---this is why there is rules. Sure the price just kind of starting a consolidation by not getting higher than just a bit over the 21ema. But remember that sometime price just get a little bit over the 21ema. So it just looked to me as the 21ema acted as a barrier so the price would just bounce on it.

But did I have other clue than that? Sure! I saw the break down by a strong candle ( that took so much time to appear!- my view!) but was expecting to happen soon since the pair had already made a TC there,(I saw it when I got back from a short swim) so not seeing a strong candle I anticipated another one( I mean another TC) (sound crazy, but that is the case!), making a double TC there!

Did I have something else to support all this? Sure! That huge HS that just broke down. How heavy the move would be expressed? As usually when price break a trend line, or a channel, or a neckline, or a consolidation, very often there is a strong candle there, because a lot of people were expecting a break down, so I was expecting it too…which happen some few candles later.

I just got out of the trade with some 62 pips there. ..I am back in! Because the ride down is not over yet, but that‘s my view. So the little pull back from where I closed the trade, was really a little pull back so far, so I got back in.
I think that it could fall along way since there is a larger HS backing a possible move like that, but again, that’s my view, will see…
This is how I did it, hoping it answer your question, thanks for asking me,

Already 16 pips secured.
edit: now 22 pips secured

eurusd:

price pulling back to the 8 ema(in red)- where I got in the trade, then moved away, as per the rules,
just a continuity to the down move, I just pulled down my SL, so now a free ride!

the eurusd, yea, again, hit by SL. But no lost, no gain.

GBPUSD:
this one is a trade taken during a pull back to neckline, as you can see, the SL is small, it is because I am not anticipating a big vacuum from that strong candle and from the break out...I could be wrong here...
that "start " of a move away is making a TC down there at the macd.
It is making also the pair being below the 200 (olive)
will see if my SL will hold! no! didn't hold--just got back in.

[quote=trademin;7627418]{quote} Hi Nic, sorry for taking so much time to answer you , but there it is, the reference to charts are from just above, NZDUSD: Do




Will see….I am back in! Because the ride down is not over yet, but that‘s my view. So the little pull back from where I closed the trade, was really a little pull back so far, so I got back in. I think that it could fall along way since there is a larger HS backing a possible move like that, but again, that’s my view,

Thanks for the full explanation Yvon, - you are a MACHINE
Where do you think this might go ? I have used a measure on the Daily H & S and it could be up to 150pip drop from the neckline breakout. This is around the 0.8480 level. At this moment the H4 is printing a Pin Bar & the H1 is making an attempt to get back to its 8ma. Perhaps just a small retrace before the next run down do you think ? We will see how significant the H4 Pin turns out to be??

Hi Binnie,

Isn't it enjoyable watching yvon trade the system??

For what it's worth, I have this for the NZD/USD, maybe some kind of pullback to the 50/61% before heading up to the neckline/100% extension and around the 21ema. There could be a good entry set up to get back in on the way down, but if it's too strong a move it might not get back up that high, who knows. I wonder what yvons take on it is?

I also caught the gbp/usd move, I'l be looking to get out around the 1.6995 mark.

Got my fingers burnt on the eur/usd as it did tag the 1.618 extension before heading up, jumped in too soon

Aus/Jpy looks set for a good counter trend trade back to the 4h 21 ema, early entry on the 1 h @ top of the right shoulder could be a possibility? Down to 89 sma on 1 hour chart. Price has broken 1h 21 ema, pulled back, now looks set to head down. Also downwards sloping h&s set up so could be a stronger move, guess we will have to wait and see