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NZD/USD

  • #6,941
  • Jul 23, 2014 5:17pm Jul 23, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} We're getting close....
Well, this is what my chart shows me
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  • #6,942
  • Edited 8:04pm Jul 23, 2014 7:25pm | Edited 8:04pm
anyone interested to have "trial" long in the green box ?

*** start looking for falsebreak to load long bullet

Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #6,943
  • Jul 23, 2014 8:20pm Jul 23, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting Yeoman
Rate hike / price action review. So what I take from the history is that... 1) short term-- rate hike doesn't always = price hike. 2) medium term--rate hike is no match for very soft fundies. I also think that the higher the price goes before the hike, the more likely we will see a repeat of April. at present I am long tp .875o (hoping to get there ahead of the hike) and ready to short when.... Thanks to all that post here.

I did expect the price to drop (who didn't)......just not instantaneously.....and not before the "customary" spike in the "expected" direction!
What I would like to know....what was keeping the price from dropping (as it really should be) before the rate hike??? I think it was the advertised rate hike. So how does the hike then precipitate this reaction?
Yeoman the "Tough Luck" Trader =p
  • #6,944
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:28pm Jul 23, 2014 9:28pm
Going down down baby. Kiwi is sinking way too fast! Does the bear have the power to push thru uptrend line from Jan or is it time for a rebound? Stay tune!
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  • #6,945
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:28pm Jul 23, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
The NZDUSD kept failing to surpass descending trend line resistance near 0.8690, signaling a re-test of 0.8660. {image}
sigaling of .8660 is now and over...it wasnt even tested. what we do know is that the FED did a 180. Going to 84 untested.
  • #6,946
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:30pm Jul 23, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting Kenjlau
Going down down baby. Kiwi is sinking way too fast! Does the bear have the power to push thru uptrend line from Jan or is it time for a rebound? Stay tune! {image}
No shot of rebound. The words ar loud and clear. This is a pause on rates and that they will sell th NZD if need be.....most dovish comments a FED can make other than cutting all interest togehter, which they cant do.
  • #6,947
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:42pm Jul 23, 2014 9:42pm
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} No shot of rebound. The words ar loud and clear. This is a pause on rates and that they will sell th NZD if need be.....most dovish comments a FED can make other than cutting all interest togehter, which they cant do.
let me ask you one thing. how much firepower they have got. 12 billion 20 billion max 50 billion and how much do the investors in europe and US have. how much can they intervene. they cannot keep it below 0.8400 in any case. thats a new normal for kiwi. accept it.
  • #6,948
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:49pm Jul 23, 2014 9:49pm
added longs @0.8585.
  • #6,949
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:56pm Jul 23, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} No shot of rebound. The words ar loud and clear. This is a pause on rates and that they will sell th NZD if need be.....most dovish comments a FED can make other than cutting all interest togehter, which they cant do.

What did they say exactly? Been expecting NZD weakness to come from this 87-88 level, but wonder how low it'll go, not sure it'll sell off too deeply….. Today's action looks very bearish though.

Not to mention NZD/USD failing right at its all time high… could be a trend reversal……...
  • #6,950
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:04pm Jul 23, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} let me ask you one thing. how much firepower they have got. 12 billion 20 billion max 50 billion and how much do the investors in europe and US have. how much can they intervene. they cannot keep it below 0.8400 in any case. thats a new normal for kiwi. accept it.
No fire power is needd if it is crippling the economy.
  • #6,951
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:06pm Jul 23, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} let me ask you one thing. how much firepower they have got. 12 billion 20 billion max 50 billion and how much do the investors in europe and US have. how much can they intervene. they cannot keep it below 0.8400 in any case. thats a new normal for kiwi. accept it.
?? It's the central bank, so infinite billions
  • #6,952
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:06pm Jul 23, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} No fire power is needd if it is crippling the economy.

u understand the difference between near 0 rates and 3.5%. 3.5% on a 100 billion investment would give you 35 million in returns. so u want 35 million profit or u want to stay at 100 billion.
  • #6,953
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:16pm Jul 23, 2014 10:16pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} What did they say exactly? Been expecting NZD weakness to come from this 87-88 level, but wonder how low it'll go, not sure it'll sell off too deeply….. Today's action looks very bearish though. Not to mention NZD/USD failing right at its all time high… could be a trend reversal……...

  1. Key comments from RBNZ Graeme Wheeler
  2. Reserve Bank Of NZ Raises Cash Rate Target 25 Bps To 3.50%
  3. Economic Growth In Trading Partners Has Eased, Appears Temporary
  4. House Price Inflation Has Moderated Further Since June Statement
  5. Christchurch Rebuild, Immigration Adding To Housing And Household Demand
  6. Fall In Prices For NZ Export Commodities Reduces Primary Income
  7. Inflation Remains Moderate, Strong Growth Absorbs Spare Capacity
  8. NZ Dollar Unjustified, Unsustainable, Potential For Significant Falls
  9. Further Rate Increases Depend On Monetary Policy Impact, Data
  10. Prudent to Assess Impact Before Interest Rates Adjusted Further

  • #6,954
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:18pm Jul 23, 2014 10:18pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} u understand the difference between near 0 rates and 3.5%. 3.5% on a 100 billion investment would give you 35 million in returns. so u want 35 million profit or u want to stay at 100 billion.
I wold not want a 35 million dollar in INTEREST if my Principal goes down 35% to 65 Billion in investment. do you get that??
  • #6,955
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:19pm Jul 23, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} NZ Dollar Unjustified, Unsustainable, Potential For Significant Falls

Wow, he said that? No wonder...
  • #6,956
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:19pm Jul 23, 2014 10:19pm
Quoting kingleeny
{quote} sigaling of .8660 is now and over...it wasnt even tested. what we do know is that the FED did a 180. Going to 84 untested.
Yes Indeed it was a sharp selling.
  • #6,957
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:23pm Jul 23, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} u understand the difference between near 0 rates and 3.5%. 3.5% on a 100 billion investment would give you 35 million in returns. so u want 35 million profit or u want to stay at 100 billion.
Still assuming the dollar stays level that's only 3.5% return - once you knock off inflation (say a modest 2% - unless you live in the eurozone) that leaves you with 1.5% which isn't much of a profit. If you then take into account the possibility of the NZD dropping then you're basically treading water or going backwards.

Pension funds in NZ have been returning 10 - 20% over the past three years and wall street has been doing quite well post GFC as well. Then there's property and emerging markets...

Even if you drop it in USD at 0% the USD has a long way to recover (at least compared to NZD) - what are the chances of it rising 1-2% over the year (quite high - more than 1% today alone).
  • #6,958
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:24pm Jul 23, 2014 10:24pm
potential bottom range but still waiting for a good time ...too many breakdown follower at the moment....
not euphoria follower
  • #6,959
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:26pm Jul 23, 2014 10:26pm
Quoting SammyD
{quote} Still assuming the dollar stays level that's only 3.5% return - once you knock off inflation (say a modest 2% - unless you live in the eurozone) that leaves you with 1.5% which isn't much of a profit. If you then take into account the possibility of the NZD dropping then you're basically treading water or going backwards. Pension funds in NZ have been returning 10 - 20% over the past three years and wall street has been doing quite well post GFC as well. Then there's property and emerging markets... Even if you drop it in USD at 0% the USD...
Well said
  • #6,960
  • Jul 23, 2014 10:28pm Jul 23, 2014 10:28pm
Oh yeah. If you haven't noticed. I am bearish at the moment. Europe just waking up and tonight follow through on the US. If enough triggers are met, you never know how low it can go before my US counterparts wake up. I will say this is not a one day fall....but a gradual one for sure. No one really wants to go in now for a quick pop, never know how far it can go down just for the carry of 3.5%
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